Foreign Actors in Libya's Crisis (original) (raw)

The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region

2020

Libya is fractured. Its civil war is a complex conflict fought out between myriad smaller militias loosely integrated into two main factions. Khalifa Haftar’s siege of Tripoli and its UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has at the time of writing gone on for almost a year. After some major gains for Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA), the siege has been stuck in a stalemate with frontlines running along the southern suburbs of the capital. Each side is backed by various regional and extra-regional powers, and the ensuing military stalemate has taken precedence over the democratic transition that many were hoping for after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The civil war was born out of the power vacuum that followed Gaddafi’s removal. This report looks at the evolution of the Libyan conflict since 2011 and maps out the various domestic and external – both state and non-state – interests that clash directly or indirectly in Libya. Moreover, it analyses the various security implications that the conflict has for the country itself and the broader region more generally. Lastly, the report comments on the prospects of the conflict and the peace process pursued by the United Nations and other international actors.

Trends and Dynamics of the Libya Conflict

IOSR, 2020

The conflict in Libya manifests complex dynamics involving personal, group and international interests in a decade long struggle for power and its accruing benefits. Militia, terror and shadow groups are involved in moves and counter moves, flexible alliances and counter alliances based on interests that intricately maneuver fault-lines in the clash and dialogue of civilizations. This study looks at the trends and dynamics of the Libyan conflict; parties involved; the justification behind their actions. The study has recommended the complete withdrawal of shadow parties in the crisis to lessen the complexities involved in solving the crisis, implementation of proper Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration and power sharing under a federal structure.

The Internationalisation of the Conflict in Libya

Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public

Libya has been characterised by instability since the Arab Spring. In 2011, Western powers decided to intervene. In spite of stated goals, this violent dispute has been ongoing ever since. In this paper, we seek to answer the following research question: why do certain internationalised violent disputes, specifically new civil wars, remain violent even when the actors involved seek a cessation of hostilities? We utilise a single-outcome case study6 research design and we compare and contrast the involvement of great powers, European leading powers and regional powers. We highlight the use of soft and/or hard foreign policy tools. We distinguish between policy goals and policy tools. We find that the essential interests and policy goals of the analysed powers will unlikely change, but change in the use of their foreign policy tools will likely be a shift towards harder tools, which will exacerbate further the Libyan stabilisation process. Even a coincidence of the stated policy goals...

A History of Conflict and International Intervention in Libya

The purpose of this research is to examine the conflict in Libya; most notably from the 2011 ousting of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi up to the present issues surrounding the state. In doing so, this research will focus on three aspects: Libya's history and theories on the cause of violent conflict; foreign military intervention, as well as international reaction; and alternative suggestions to management, and resolutions regarding the current Libyan Conflict.

Libya: An Assessment of Twelve Years of International Mediation

International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives (ICDI), 2023

It is a long and winding road towards peace and stability in Libya. Despite some relative positive developments following the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), a durable peace still eludes the Libyan people and the international community. Today, Libya is faced with an uncertain future: a political morass; severe economic hardship; risks of renewed military escalation due to the political deadlock following the expiration of the LPDF roadmap; and a failed electoral process. Enduring violence in Libya, though at a low intensity, as demonstrated by regular militia skirmishes, coupled with the continued presence of foreign fighters and mercenaries, makes peace fragile and vulnerable to further upheavals. Substantial work on the political, economic, and military tracks remains pending, including the resolution of complex issues such as the future of militias, security, and the thorny issues of the electoral process and a permanent constitution. Despite the efforts exerted by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to move the constitutional process forward during the latest high-level meeting on Libya’s constitutional track in Geneva on June 28-29, 2022, major disagreements persist on a number of issues, mainly on the eligibility requirements for the candidates in the first presidential elections post-2011. While the several rounds of consultations in Cairo and Geneva yielded significant progress, they have fallen short in meeting requirements to hold comprehensive and inclusive national elections in Libya. The fact is that since the fall of the Gaddafi regime, Libya has failed to transition to stability and democracy, as both the uprising and the ensuing conflict divided Libyans into essential categories of ‘winners’ and ‘losers.’ The UN and a number of international actors have attempted to bring resolution to the crisis through various mediation efforts but the role of foreign powers, including some of the permanent member states of the UN Security Council (UNSC), has not always been constructive. Disagreement and competing interests between these UNSC member states have negatively impacted the trajectory of the conflict, impeding the efforts of the UN to find a durable settlement to the conflict. Competing foreign interests have often prevented consensus both at national and international levels. Despite some positive results in the political process, the crisis continues unabated. However, no final, inclusive, and lasting settlement looms on the horizon, in part because little serious attention has been paid to keys issues such as national dialogue, transitional justice, security sector reform, and reconciliation. The UN has been involved in mediation in the Libyan conflict through its special mission in Libya, UNSMIL. However, each head of the mission – Special Representatives of the Secretary General (SRSGs) – Ian Martin, Tarek Mitri.Bernardino León, Martin Kobler, Ghassan Salamé, Acting SRSG Stephanie Williams, and Ján Kubiš – opted for different approaches. A comparison of these efforts suggests that there have been inherent flaws in the design of the process and inconsistencies of strategy and approach. In addition to the lack of a unified strategy in the UN-led political process, there have also been concerns within large segments of Libyan society that the impartiality and neutrality of the UN has been compromised at times, and the political process has lacked transparency, according to our interviewees. Participants were kept in the dark ahead of the political dialogue and had no access to the dialogue agenda, its minutes, or the results. Coupled with the negative influence of contending regional and international actors, the UN process was destined to fail in many respects. This report demonstrates that in the eyes of the majority of Libyans the work of UNSMIL suffered many weaknesses and scored quite low on most criteria considered necessary for success. As there was no clear transparent criteria for selecting the participants in the national dialogue processes, the consequent deficiencies of inclusion and ownership reduced accountability and allowed participants to politicize the process. Moreover, there were few voices representing civil society and their limited participation was seen more as a token attempt at inclusivity. Women’s participation did not constitute any meaningful representation. Thus, the process failed to address the issues related to women and civil society further reduced inclusivity, undermined public ownership, and ignored the conditions that continue to generate conflict and violence. Lack of inclusivity and ownership also meant that implementation became essentially haphazard and circumstantial. The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), being the major achievement of UNSMIL and the framework that defines its work and determines current Libyan state institutions, has, despite all the support it had from UNSMIL and the international community, failed to achieve its objectives. In fact, the LPA created a context in which Libyans became even more divided than before and created new issues of contestation. The process failed to become a transformative national dialogue inducing changes in public attitudes that would pave the way for desired and sustainable change, and thus the conflict has become more entrenched. This report shows that for any dialogue to achieve a sustainable resolution to the Libyan crisis, it must be transformative and adaptive. This goal may be achieved with clearer and more solid commitments to ending foreign interference, and the designing of a broader, more inclusive national dialogue that puts reconciliation at the very forefront. Any attempt to resolve the Libyan conflict must be based on an appropriate understanding of the socio-economic, and historical contexts, that will help parties genuinely commit to implementation of agreements. Any effort that ignores this requirement will result in a superficial agreement that could backfire. There is a need to widen participation, uphold Libyan ownership, and limit foreign interference. Instead of continuing to rely on foreign actors, peace in Libya will require Libyan stakeholders joining together to develop a peace and reconciliation agreement through a Libyan-led process, in which they themselves frame the contested issues as shared problems. This would pave the way for the implementation of commitments and guarantees based on mutual, not exclusive, benefits. Such an agreement would then no longer be a mere tool for power-sharing that privileges some factions. Instead of continuing to rely on foreign actors, peace in Libya will require Libyan stakeholders joining together to develop a peace and reconciliation agreement through a Libyan-led process, in which they themselves frame the contested issues as shared problems.

The Libya Crisis: The Militarisation of the New Scramble and More

2012

The conflict in Libya that invited involvement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the demonisation of Colonel Gaddafi as a ruthless tyrant clearly showed the desire of the West to militarise the New Scramble for African resources, a process which has become so pervasive in the current age. This paper argues that while the political misgivings of the Libyan regime under Gaddafi were clear for all to see, the problem did not need the intervention of NATO. The paper also advances the opinion that the Libya crisis will cause instability domestically and regionally. Finally the paper also holds that the Libya war is the same as the Iraqi and Afghan wars whose other objective is the creation of conflict in the hope of making huge profits in post-conflict reconstruction, a phenomenon called for profit war. The paper recommends that African leaders should not hold their people at ransom by monopolising political space as this creates room for the entrance of World powers w...

The Libya Crisis: Militarisation of the New Scramble and More

Key Actors in the Libyan Conflict

Russia in Global Affairs

This article attempts to analyze the current political situation in Libya through the activities of the main actors and a net of opportunistic interactions they create on the national and international levels. The paper scrutinizes Libya's three governments and the tribal factor, and also considers the role of neocons

International confusion in resolving the Libyan crisis

The crisis in Libya is becoming more complicated day after day, despite the active diplomatic efforts, to end the bloodshed of the Libyan people, However, unfortunately, any observer of the crisis developments since the fall of the Libyan regime, Notes the ambiguity of the international position and the Contradictory positions of the parties, as well as the fragility of the conflicting parties in Libya and their inability to build effective consensus among them in order to get the country out of this dark tunnel. Moreover, the conflict of international and regional interests over the Libyan territory is the deepened the weakness and the differences of the Libyans and complicated the potential national dialogue necessary to get out of this bloody crisis. This reality, of course, makes Libya's transformation to democracy and the rebuilding of state institutions very difficult, In addition to the intervention of many countries in the Libyan issue, which is pushing more and more towards the division of Libya into rival states controlled by armed militias, All these domestic and external political reasons could transform the country into a failed state economically, politically and socially.

NEW LIBYA: POLITICAL TRANSITION AND THE ROLE OF THE WEST {with Daniel Möckli}

2011

The dissolution of the Gaddafi regime marks zero hour for a new Libya. There is a real danger that in the absence of the former leader’s authoritarian grip, the country will experience a high level of instability. However, the actions of the Transitional Council so far, as well as Libya’s basic socio-economic parameters, give reason to hope for a successful transition. This would also require that the Western actors reconceptualise their role in Libya. While their intervention has been decisive in shaping the outcome of the civil war, they should limit themselves to supporting Libyan initiatives when it comes to reconstruction.

Foreign Actors in Libya's Crisis (original) (raw)

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