Toke S Aidt | University of Cambridge (original) (raw)
Papers by Toke S Aidt
Studies of social unrest typically focus on either structural factors or diffusion. We argue that... more Studies of social unrest typically focus on either structural factors or diffusion. We argue that the two are closely linked, and examine the importance of three categories of structural factors, how changes in local factors can generate unrest in other areas through diffusion, and the extent to which different factors affect a location's susceptibility to unrest diffusing in from elsewhere. Using data from the English Swing riots of 1830-31, an episode that involved nearly 3,000 incidents, allows us to observe the structural factors relevant to specific incidents in a way that is not possible with contemporary data. We find that factors related to economic activity triggered the unrest, both economic factors and local leadership facilitated its diffusion, and diffusion multiplied by 3.15 the effect of an increase in a local factor. The complex interplay between structural factors and diffusion we uncover is of relevance to contemporary episodes of social unrest.
Coups, understood as attempts to overthrow the sitting executive government by a group inside the... more Coups, understood as attempts to overthrow the sitting executive government by a group inside the state apparatus that includes part of the military, shape competition for office in authoritarian regimes. They do that both directly through actual coups and indirectly through the threat of a coup, which forces incumbent autocrats to balance loyalty and repression to pre-empt being overthrown. The chapter presents a framework for the study of coups and uses it to examine how coups can help select autocrats and to some extent keep them accountable. It presents a number of stylized facts about coups and summarizes the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of coups in autocracies.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Jan 6, 2015
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 14, 2017
It is by now well-established in the development economics literature that institutions play a vi... more It is by now well-established in the development economics literature that institutions play a vital role in shaping social, economic, and political incentives, reducing transaction costs and uncertainty, and promoting long-run economic growth. Following recent developments on the measurement of socio-economic progress, which emphasize the importance of many non-economic dimensions of quality of life, the goal of this special issue is to encourage new socio-economic research on the relationship between institutions and well-being in this broader sense. Here, we provide a brief overview of the existing literature on institutions and well-being and then summarize the papers in this special issue according to three unifying themes (1) economic freedom studies; (2) institutions and long-run growth, and (3) well-being and institutions in transition economies. We conclude by discussing some challenges for future research.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Cliometrica, 2021
The Redistribution Hypothesis predicts that franchise extension causes an increase in state-spons... more The Redistribution Hypothesis predicts that franchise extension causes an increase in state-sponsored redistribution. We test this hypothesis by considering the relationship between franchise extension and selected aspects of fiscal structure at both central and local government levels in the UK from 1820 to 1913. We do so without imposing a priori restrictions on the direction of causality using a novel method for causal investigation of non-experimental data proposed by Hoover (2001). This method is based on tests for structural breaks in the conditional and marginal distributions of the franchise and fiscal structure time series preceded by a detailed historical narrative analysis. We do not find compelling evidence supporting the Redistribution Hypothesis.
Journal of Economic Literature, 2021
In an interconnected world, economic and political interests inevitably reach beyond national bor... more In an interconnected world, economic and political interests inevitably reach beyond national borders. Since policy choices generate external economic and political costs, foreign state and non-state actors have an interest in influencing policy actions in other sovereign countries to their advantage. Foreign influence is a strategic choice aimed at internalizing these externalities and takes three principal forms: (i) voluntary agreements, (ii) policy interventions based on rewarding or sanctioning the target country to obtain a specific change in policy, and (iii) institution interventions aimed at influencing the political institutions in the target country. We propose a unifying theoretical framework to study when foreign influence is chosen and in which form, and use it to organize and evaluate the new political economics literature on foreign influence along with work in cognate disciplines (JEL D72, D74, F51, F53, P26, P33).
Public Choice, 2019
Why do politicians rebel and vote against the party line when high stakes bills come to the floor... more Why do politicians rebel and vote against the party line when high stakes bills come to the floor of the legislature? To address that question, we leverage the three so-called Meaningful Votes that took place in the British House of Commons between January and March 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement that the Conservative government had reached with the European Union. The bill was defeated decisively three times following a major revolt amongst Conservative backbench Members of Parliament (MPs). We find that three factors influenced their rebellion calculus: the MP’s own ideological views, constituency preferences and career concerns. Somewhat paradoxically, the rebellion within the Conservative Party came from MPs who had supported Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum and from MPs elected in Leave-leaning constituencies.
The Journal of Economic History, 2019
The Great Reform Act of 1832 was a watershed for democracy in Great Britain. We study the vote on... more The Great Reform Act of 1832 was a watershed for democracy in Great Britain. We study the vote on 22 March 1831 in the House of Commons to test three competing theories of democratization: public opinion, political expedience, and threat of revolution. Peaceful agitation and mass-support for reform played an important role. Political expedience also motivated some members of Parliament to support the reform, especially if they were elected in constituencies located in counties that would gain seats. Violent unrest in urban but not in rural areas had some influence on the members of Parliament. Counterfactual scenarios suggest that the reform bill would not have obtained a majority in the House of Commons in the absence of these factors.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2015
We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in ... more We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in sub-Saharan Africa and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change and supports the “window of opportunity” hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.
European Economic Review, 2014
The Economic Journal, 2010
Studies of social unrest typically focus on either structural factors or diffusion. We argue that... more Studies of social unrest typically focus on either structural factors or diffusion. We argue that the two are closely linked, and examine the importance of three categories of structural factors, how changes in local factors can generate unrest in other areas through diffusion, and the extent to which different factors affect a location's susceptibility to unrest diffusing in from elsewhere. Using data from the English Swing riots of 1830-31, an episode that involved nearly 3,000 incidents, allows us to observe the structural factors relevant to specific incidents in a way that is not possible with contemporary data. We find that factors related to economic activity triggered the unrest, both economic factors and local leadership facilitated its diffusion, and diffusion multiplied by 3.15 the effect of an increase in a local factor. The complex interplay between structural factors and diffusion we uncover is of relevance to contemporary episodes of social unrest.
Coups, understood as attempts to overthrow the sitting executive government by a group inside the... more Coups, understood as attempts to overthrow the sitting executive government by a group inside the state apparatus that includes part of the military, shape competition for office in authoritarian regimes. They do that both directly through actual coups and indirectly through the threat of a coup, which forces incumbent autocrats to balance loyalty and repression to pre-empt being overthrown. The chapter presents a framework for the study of coups and uses it to examine how coups can help select autocrats and to some extent keep them accountable. It presents a number of stylized facts about coups and summarizes the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of coups in autocracies.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, Jan 6, 2015
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 14, 2017
It is by now well-established in the development economics literature that institutions play a vi... more It is by now well-established in the development economics literature that institutions play a vital role in shaping social, economic, and political incentives, reducing transaction costs and uncertainty, and promoting long-run economic growth. Following recent developments on the measurement of socio-economic progress, which emphasize the importance of many non-economic dimensions of quality of life, the goal of this special issue is to encourage new socio-economic research on the relationship between institutions and well-being in this broader sense. Here, we provide a brief overview of the existing literature on institutions and well-being and then summarize the papers in this special issue according to three unifying themes (1) economic freedom studies; (2) institutions and long-run growth, and (3) well-being and institutions in transition economies. We conclude by discussing some challenges for future research.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Cliometrica, 2021
The Redistribution Hypothesis predicts that franchise extension causes an increase in state-spons... more The Redistribution Hypothesis predicts that franchise extension causes an increase in state-sponsored redistribution. We test this hypothesis by considering the relationship between franchise extension and selected aspects of fiscal structure at both central and local government levels in the UK from 1820 to 1913. We do so without imposing a priori restrictions on the direction of causality using a novel method for causal investigation of non-experimental data proposed by Hoover (2001). This method is based on tests for structural breaks in the conditional and marginal distributions of the franchise and fiscal structure time series preceded by a detailed historical narrative analysis. We do not find compelling evidence supporting the Redistribution Hypothesis.
Journal of Economic Literature, 2021
In an interconnected world, economic and political interests inevitably reach beyond national bor... more In an interconnected world, economic and political interests inevitably reach beyond national borders. Since policy choices generate external economic and political costs, foreign state and non-state actors have an interest in influencing policy actions in other sovereign countries to their advantage. Foreign influence is a strategic choice aimed at internalizing these externalities and takes three principal forms: (i) voluntary agreements, (ii) policy interventions based on rewarding or sanctioning the target country to obtain a specific change in policy, and (iii) institution interventions aimed at influencing the political institutions in the target country. We propose a unifying theoretical framework to study when foreign influence is chosen and in which form, and use it to organize and evaluate the new political economics literature on foreign influence along with work in cognate disciplines (JEL D72, D74, F51, F53, P26, P33).
Public Choice, 2019
Why do politicians rebel and vote against the party line when high stakes bills come to the floor... more Why do politicians rebel and vote against the party line when high stakes bills come to the floor of the legislature? To address that question, we leverage the three so-called Meaningful Votes that took place in the British House of Commons between January and March 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement that the Conservative government had reached with the European Union. The bill was defeated decisively three times following a major revolt amongst Conservative backbench Members of Parliament (MPs). We find that three factors influenced their rebellion calculus: the MP’s own ideological views, constituency preferences and career concerns. Somewhat paradoxically, the rebellion within the Conservative Party came from MPs who had supported Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum and from MPs elected in Leave-leaning constituencies.
The Journal of Economic History, 2019
The Great Reform Act of 1832 was a watershed for democracy in Great Britain. We study the vote on... more The Great Reform Act of 1832 was a watershed for democracy in Great Britain. We study the vote on 22 March 1831 in the House of Commons to test three competing theories of democratization: public opinion, political expedience, and threat of revolution. Peaceful agitation and mass-support for reform played an important role. Political expedience also motivated some members of Parliament to support the reform, especially if they were elected in constituencies located in counties that would gain seats. Violent unrest in urban but not in rural areas had some influence on the members of Parliament. Counterfactual scenarios suggest that the reform bill would not have obtained a majority in the House of Commons in the absence of these factors.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2015
We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in ... more We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in sub-Saharan Africa and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change and supports the “window of opportunity” hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.
European Economic Review, 2014
The Economic Journal, 2010