Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth (original) (raw)

References

  1. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015); https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-FrontMatterA_FINAL.pdf
  2. Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geosci. 6, 415–416 (2013).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  3. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
  4. Cowtan, K. et al. Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 6526–6534 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
  5. Richter, I. & Xie, S.-P. Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: a surface evaporation perspective. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D24118 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
  6. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
  7. Forster, P. M. et al. Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 1139–1150 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
  8. Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J. & Taylor, K. E. Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09712 (2012).
    Google Scholar
  9. Bengtsson, L. & Schwartz, S. E. Determination of a lower bound on Earth’s climate sensitivity. Tellus B 65, 21533 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
  10. Lewis, N. & Curry, J. A. The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates. Clim. Dynam. 45, 1009–1023 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
  11. Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140, 1935–1944 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
  12. Hansen, J. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  13. Shindell, D. & Faluvegi, G. Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nature Geosci. 2, 294–300 (2009).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  14. Shindell, D. et al. Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D19110 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  15. Kummer, J. R. & Dessler, A. E. The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3565–3568 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
  16. Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L. & Nazarenko, L. S. Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. Nature Clim. Change 6, 386–389 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
  17. Knutti, R. & Rugenstein, M. A. A. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20150146 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
  18. Huber, M., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in the presence of natural climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2086–2092 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
  19. Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T. & Tsigaridis, K. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geosci. 7, 158–160 (2014).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  20. Rose, B. E. J., Armour, K. C., Battisti, D. S., Feldl, N. & Koll, D. D. B. The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 1071–1078 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
  21. Winton, M., Takahashi, K. & Held, I. M. Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change. J. Clim. 23, 2333–2344 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  22. Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M. & Roe, G. H. Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks. J. Clim. 26, 4518–4534 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
  23. Ramanathan, V. The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the CO2 climate problem. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 918–930 (1981).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  24. Santer, B. D. et al. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. Science 287, 1227–1232 (2000).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  25. Riahi, K. et al. RCP 8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change 109, 33–57 (2011).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  26. Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A. & Christidis, N. Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 4001–4024 (2013).
    Google Scholar
  27. Goody, R. & Yung, Y. L. Atmospheric Radiation Theoretical Basics 388–425 (Oxford Univ. Press, 1989).
    Google Scholar
  28. DeAngelis, A. M., Qu, X., Zelinka, M. D. & Hall, A. An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification. Nature 528, 249–253 (2015).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  29. Thorne, P. W. et al. Guiding the creation of a comprehensive surface temperature resource for twenty-first-century climate science. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, ES40–ES47 (2011).
    Google Scholar
  30. The Copenhagen Accord FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2009).

Download references