Ahmet Şahbaz | Necmettin Erbakan University (original) (raw)
Papers by Ahmet Şahbaz
Fiscaoeconomia
Vergi gelirleri, ülkelerin kamu gelirleri içinde en yüksek paya sahip olan gelir türüdür. Ayrıca,... more Vergi gelirleri, ülkelerin kamu gelirleri içinde en yüksek paya sahip olan gelir türüdür. Ayrıca, ekonomik krizlerde başvurulan maliye politikasının araçlarından biridir. Ülkelerin demokratik veya otokratik yapıya sahip olması, vergi gelirleri seviyesini etkileyen faktörlerin başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 24 OECD ülkesi için 1980-2018 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde demokrasi ve dışa açıklık oranlarının vergi gelirleri ile ilişkisini analiz etmektir. Modelde, bağımlı değişken olarak vergi gelirlerinin GSYH’a oranı (vergi yükü), bağımsız değişkenler ise demokrasi ve dışa açıklık oranı göstergeleri Driscoll-Kraay Tahmincisi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda demokrasi düzeyinin ve ticari dışa açıklık oranının vergi yükü üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla OECD ülkelerinde demokrasinin gelişmesi ve dış ticaretin desteklenmesi vergi gelirleri üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahiptir.
Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını test edilmesidir. Çalışmamız Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemler arası model kullanılarak, 2001:3-2011:4 dönemi aylık verileri ile test edilmiştir. Johansen eş-bütünleşme analizleri neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde incelenen dönemde ihracat ile ithalat serileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ampirik bulgular Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.
Fiscaoeconomia, Sep 14, 2022
Taxes are unrequited, compulsory, and final payments are made to the government to cover the cost... more Taxes are unrequited, compulsory, and final payments are made to the government to cover the cost of public services. In this context, tax revenues are of great importance for the existence and continuity of states. Tax revenues are the type of revenue that has the highest share in the public revenues of countries. In addition, it is one of the tools of the fiscal policy applied in economic crises. The fact that countries have a democratic or autocratic structure is one of the factors affecting the level of tax revenues. Therefore, besides the dimensions of taxation, such as income distribution, economic growth and economic stability, there is also a democracy dimension. In this study, it is aimed to analyze the relationship between democracy and openness rates and tax revenues for the period covering the years 1980-2018 for 24 OECD countries. In the model, the ratio of tax revenues to GDP (tax burden) is the dependent variable and the democracy and openness ratio indicators are estimated using the Driscoll-Kraay Estimator as the independent variables. As a result of the study, it was concluded that the level of democracy and the trade openness ratio have a positive effect on the tax burden. Therefore, efforts to develop democracy and supporting foreign trade have a positive effect on tax revenues.
TEZ7272Tez (Doktora) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2009.Kaynakça (s.239-254) var.xiv, 266 s. ;... more TEZ7272Tez (Doktora) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2009.Kaynakça (s.239-254) var.xiv, 266 s. ; 29 cm.In the developing countries, devaluations are used as an political instrument by the governments against balance of payment problems. In accordance with the literature, depreciation of the exchange rate positively affects the economy. However, exchange rate depreciation not only induces the export increase due to decreasing the prices of domestic goods but also increases the cost of producing in the export sector by increasing the input prices of imported goods. In this context, theoretic discussions about contractionary devaluation hypothesis major on supply and demand side channels...Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde devalüasyonlar genellikle ödemeler bilançosu problemleri ile karşı karşıya olan hükümetlerin politika aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. İktisat yazınında geleneksel yaklaşımlar itibari ile döviz kurunun değer kaybetmesi ekonomiyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte döviz kur...
Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını test edilmesidir. Çalışmamız Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemler arası model kullanılarak, 2001:3-2011:4 dönemi aylık verileri ile test edilmiştir. Johansen eş-bütünleşme analizleri neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde incelenen dönemde ihracat ile ithalat serileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ampirik bulgular Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2009
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by usi... more The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period
Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for it... more Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for its adverse impacts on the output in the developing economies, economists suggest different policy proposals in order to stabilize price level. One of them is to change price index in measurement of inflation. In this study, we investigate the suitability of an alternative price index in inflation targeting regime instead of consumer price index in Turkish economy. In this regard, we employ the producer price index instead of consumer price index in order to investigate the suitability of Frankel's policy proposals. The empirical results, obtained from conventional VAR analysis suggest that the impact of producer price on the inflation rate is in the short term and it is weak. Similarly, MS-VAR analysis by utilizing the monthly data for the period 2003M2-2013M6, show that there is not a significant impact of producer price on the inflation rate during the expansionary period and it is ...
Fragility of national currencies belonging to "Fragile Five" countries has increased in... more Fragility of national currencies belonging to "Fragile Five" countries has increased in the aftermath of the declaration of Federal Reserve about the end of Quantitative Easing program. The values of national currencies against U.S. dollar are depreciated. Both the structure of financial systems and absence of financial capital needed in the pathway to economic development are effective on exchange rates. In addition to economic developments after May 2013, Fragile Five economies achieved to reduce current account deficit in recent years. The situation with national currencies brings another question into mind if the depreciation in national currencies is effective on current account deficit. In this study, we aim to investigate the structure of relation between variables via SVAR analysis. Results show that most of the economies are gained from depreciation of national currencies. The depreciation of national currencies is not effective in South Africa and India. This res...
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2015
Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for it... more Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for its adverse impacts on the output in the developing economies, economists suggest different policy proposals in order to stabilize price level. One of them is to change price index in measurement of inflation. In this study, we investigate the suitability of an alternative price index in inflation targeting regime instead of consumer price index in Turkish economy. In this regard, we employ the producer price index instead of consumer price index in order to investigate the suitability of Frankel’s policy proposals. The empirical results, obtained from conventional VAR analysis suggest that the impact of producer price on the inflation rate is in the short term and it is weak. Similarly, MS-VAR analysis by utilizing the monthly data for the period 2003M2 - 2013M6, show that there is not a significant impact of producer price on the inflation rate during the expansionary period and it is al...
The aim of this study investigates the relationship between globalization, poverty and income ine... more The aim of this study investigates the relationship between globalization, poverty and income inequality in developing countries. Within this context not only globalization but also the subcomponents of globalization such as the economic, social and political effects of globalization on poverty and income inequality are considered. This study tests 102 developing countries with data for the year 2010 by using crosssectional analysis. As empirical findings indicate, globalization reduces poverty and income inequality. These results are also supported by models for analyzing the effects of the subcomponents of globalization. As a result, the economic, political and social globalization reduces poverty and income inequality in developing countries.
Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 donemine ait aylik veriler kullanilarak reel petrol fiya... more Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 donemine ait aylik veriler kullanilarak reel petrol fiyatlari ile dis ticaret dengesi arasindaki iliski, dogrusal olmayan esbutunlesme, dogrusal olmayan ve frekans alani Granger tipi nedensellik analizleri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Analizler sonucunda reel petrol fiyatindan dis ticaret acigina tek yonlu nedenselligin oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir. Fakat nedensellik iliskisi sadece orta vadede gecerlidir. Buna gore Turkiye’de orta vadede petrol fiyatlarindaki oynakliklar dis ticaret aciklarinin olusmasinda etkili iken, uzun vadede dis ticaret aciklari uzerindeki etkisi kaybolmaktadir.
Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2013
Son yillarda, kurum ve kurumsal yapi kavramlari, iktisat teorisince incelenilen en populer kavram... more Son yillarda, kurum ve kurumsal yapi kavramlari, iktisat teorisince incelenilen en populer kavramlardan biri olmustur. Ozellikle, yeni buyume teorileri, makro duzeyde ekonomik buyume uzerinde kurumlarin ve kurumsal yapinin etkileri uzerine odaklanmistir. Mulkiyet haklari da bu kurumsal yapinin ve ekonomik buyume surecinin en onemli unsurlardan biri olarak dusunulmektedir. Bu calismada, 27 Avrupa birligi uyesi ulkelerde mulkiyet haklarinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkisi yatay kesit yontemi kullanilarak arastirilmistir. Calismada elde edilen sonuclar mulkiyet haklarindaki iyilesmelerin ekonomik buyumeyi arttirdigi ortaya koymustur.
Economies, 2017
Solow (1956) has made an essential contribution to the Neo-classical growth approach through the ... more Solow (1956) has made an essential contribution to the Neo-classical growth approach through the economic convergence hypothesis. It assumes that poorer countries' or regions' per capita incomes tend to grow at faster rates than the richer ones. Convergence could occur either among a group of economies with the same steady states or within regions in which their fundamental dynamics differ, and thus they exhibit multiple steady states. This study aims to investigate convergence with respect to GDP per capita across NUTS 2 regions in Turkey for the time period 2004-2014. In the convergence process, we also inquire into role of government in terms of regional government investments and fixed investment incentives. All the empirical results confirm the validity of the convergence hypothesis at a regional level. Also, in the context of the convergence process, it is possible to conclude that the role of government is likely to be decisive in solving regional economic disparities.
Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2017
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2016
This paper investigates the behavior of Turkish exchange rates within the context of purchasing p... more This paper investigates the behavior of Turkish exchange rates within the context of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis,-employing ten Turkish real exchange rates during January 2002-May 2012-, by means of recent developments in panel unit root testing procedures. When we account for nonlinearity, smooth structural shifts, and cross-section dependency, the empirical analysis supports that PPP hypothesis is valid for Eurozone and European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), while it does not hold for non-European trading partners (Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and USA). From the empirical results, we can conclude that PPP hypothesis is hold in the countries which have the free trade agreement, while it is violated in the countries in which there are trade barriers and greater distance. The findings therefore provide important policy implications for Turkey about determining equilibrium exchange rates with Eurozone and other European Union countr...
Uluslararasi ticaretin serbestlesmesi, iletisim ve ulasim alaninda yasanan gelismeler ulkeler ara... more Uluslararasi ticaretin serbestlesmesi, iletisim ve ulasim alaninda yasanan gelismeler ulkeler arasindaki etkilesimin hizli bir sekilde artmasina neden olmustur. Yukselen etkilesim yabanci paralarin ulkeler arasinda kolaylikla aktarilmasina yardim etmistir. Ulkelerin makroekonomik gostergelerini de etkileyen bu hareketlilik, akademik calismalarin da odak noktalarindan birisi haline gelmistir. Doviz kuru ve hisse senedi piyasalari arasindaki iliskiyi inceleyen bu akademik calismalar teori olarak "geleneksel" ve "portfoy dengesi" modellerini incelemistir. Geleneksel modele gore doviz kurunun artmasi ulkedeki firmalarin mallarini yurt disindaki firmalarin mallarina gore daha ucuz hale getirecek ve firmalarin karliligini artirarak hisse senetlerinin degerlenmesine neden olacaktir (Dornbusch ve Fisher, 1980). Portfoy dengesi modelinde ise portfoyunde cesitli finansal varliklari barindiran yatirimci, ulusal hisse senetlerinin deger kazanmasi sonucunda elindeki yabanci ...
![Research paper thumbnail of Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri [Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]](https://attachments.academia-assets.com/78270159/thumbnails/1.jpg)
](The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by usi... more The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.
Borsa Istanbul Review, 2021
Using data from the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), this study analyzes whether derivatives market operati... more Using data from the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), this study analyzes whether derivatives market operations have a volatility spillover effect on stock indexes using multivariate GARCH models and wavelet methods. We use the DVECH method, with variables for the daily BIST 30 index and BIST 30 index futures contracts between January 5 and September 27, 2017. The results show that wavelet theory is more consistent with M-GARCH models. Our results show that the variance equation demonstrates a general volatility spillover effect from the derivatives market to the stock market, except for the frequency that covers all the series. As the frequency decreases, the effect of time-varying conditional variance decreases, and the effect of past volatility shocks increases. These results indicate that inexperienced investors should be informed about derivatives markets, and the depth of the financial markets in Turkey must be increased.
Fiscaoeconomia
Vergi gelirleri, ülkelerin kamu gelirleri içinde en yüksek paya sahip olan gelir türüdür. Ayrıca,... more Vergi gelirleri, ülkelerin kamu gelirleri içinde en yüksek paya sahip olan gelir türüdür. Ayrıca, ekonomik krizlerde başvurulan maliye politikasının araçlarından biridir. Ülkelerin demokratik veya otokratik yapıya sahip olması, vergi gelirleri seviyesini etkileyen faktörlerin başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 24 OECD ülkesi için 1980-2018 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde demokrasi ve dışa açıklık oranlarının vergi gelirleri ile ilişkisini analiz etmektir. Modelde, bağımlı değişken olarak vergi gelirlerinin GSYH’a oranı (vergi yükü), bağımsız değişkenler ise demokrasi ve dışa açıklık oranı göstergeleri Driscoll-Kraay Tahmincisi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda demokrasi düzeyinin ve ticari dışa açıklık oranının vergi yükü üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla OECD ülkelerinde demokrasinin gelişmesi ve dış ticaretin desteklenmesi vergi gelirleri üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahiptir.
Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını test edilmesidir. Çalışmamız Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemler arası model kullanılarak, 2001:3-2011:4 dönemi aylık verileri ile test edilmiştir. Johansen eş-bütünleşme analizleri neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde incelenen dönemde ihracat ile ithalat serileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ampirik bulgular Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.
Fiscaoeconomia, Sep 14, 2022
Taxes are unrequited, compulsory, and final payments are made to the government to cover the cost... more Taxes are unrequited, compulsory, and final payments are made to the government to cover the cost of public services. In this context, tax revenues are of great importance for the existence and continuity of states. Tax revenues are the type of revenue that has the highest share in the public revenues of countries. In addition, it is one of the tools of the fiscal policy applied in economic crises. The fact that countries have a democratic or autocratic structure is one of the factors affecting the level of tax revenues. Therefore, besides the dimensions of taxation, such as income distribution, economic growth and economic stability, there is also a democracy dimension. In this study, it is aimed to analyze the relationship between democracy and openness rates and tax revenues for the period covering the years 1980-2018 for 24 OECD countries. In the model, the ratio of tax revenues to GDP (tax burden) is the dependent variable and the democracy and openness ratio indicators are estimated using the Driscoll-Kraay Estimator as the independent variables. As a result of the study, it was concluded that the level of democracy and the trade openness ratio have a positive effect on the tax burden. Therefore, efforts to develop democracy and supporting foreign trade have a positive effect on tax revenues.
TEZ7272Tez (Doktora) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2009.Kaynakça (s.239-254) var.xiv, 266 s. ;... more TEZ7272Tez (Doktora) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2009.Kaynakça (s.239-254) var.xiv, 266 s. ; 29 cm.In the developing countries, devaluations are used as an political instrument by the governments against balance of payment problems. In accordance with the literature, depreciation of the exchange rate positively affects the economy. However, exchange rate depreciation not only induces the export increase due to decreasing the prices of domestic goods but also increases the cost of producing in the export sector by increasing the input prices of imported goods. In this context, theoretic discussions about contractionary devaluation hypothesis major on supply and demand side channels...Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde devalüasyonlar genellikle ödemeler bilançosu problemleri ile karşı karşıya olan hükümetlerin politika aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. İktisat yazınında geleneksel yaklaşımlar itibari ile döviz kurunun değer kaybetmesi ekonomiyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte döviz kur...
Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarını... more Bu çalışmanın amacı son dönemlerde yeniden tartışılmaya başlanan Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını test edilmesidir. Çalışmamız Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemler arası model kullanılarak, 2001:3-2011:4 dönemi aylık verileri ile test edilmiştir. Johansen eş-bütünleşme analizleri neticesinde Türkiye ekonomisinde incelenen dönemde ihracat ile ithalat serileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ampirik bulgular Türkiye'de cari işlem açıklarının uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2009
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by usi... more The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period
Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for it... more Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for its adverse impacts on the output in the developing economies, economists suggest different policy proposals in order to stabilize price level. One of them is to change price index in measurement of inflation. In this study, we investigate the suitability of an alternative price index in inflation targeting regime instead of consumer price index in Turkish economy. In this regard, we employ the producer price index instead of consumer price index in order to investigate the suitability of Frankel's policy proposals. The empirical results, obtained from conventional VAR analysis suggest that the impact of producer price on the inflation rate is in the short term and it is weak. Similarly, MS-VAR analysis by utilizing the monthly data for the period 2003M2-2013M6, show that there is not a significant impact of producer price on the inflation rate during the expansionary period and it is ...
Fragility of national currencies belonging to "Fragile Five" countries has increased in... more Fragility of national currencies belonging to "Fragile Five" countries has increased in the aftermath of the declaration of Federal Reserve about the end of Quantitative Easing program. The values of national currencies against U.S. dollar are depreciated. Both the structure of financial systems and absence of financial capital needed in the pathway to economic development are effective on exchange rates. In addition to economic developments after May 2013, Fragile Five economies achieved to reduce current account deficit in recent years. The situation with national currencies brings another question into mind if the depreciation in national currencies is effective on current account deficit. In this study, we aim to investigate the structure of relation between variables via SVAR analysis. Results show that most of the economies are gained from depreciation of national currencies. The depreciation of national currencies is not effective in South Africa and India. This res...
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2015
Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for it... more Since Frankel (2011, 2012) criticizes the choice of consumer price index as a policy index for its adverse impacts on the output in the developing economies, economists suggest different policy proposals in order to stabilize price level. One of them is to change price index in measurement of inflation. In this study, we investigate the suitability of an alternative price index in inflation targeting regime instead of consumer price index in Turkish economy. In this regard, we employ the producer price index instead of consumer price index in order to investigate the suitability of Frankel’s policy proposals. The empirical results, obtained from conventional VAR analysis suggest that the impact of producer price on the inflation rate is in the short term and it is weak. Similarly, MS-VAR analysis by utilizing the monthly data for the period 2003M2 - 2013M6, show that there is not a significant impact of producer price on the inflation rate during the expansionary period and it is al...
The aim of this study investigates the relationship between globalization, poverty and income ine... more The aim of this study investigates the relationship between globalization, poverty and income inequality in developing countries. Within this context not only globalization but also the subcomponents of globalization such as the economic, social and political effects of globalization on poverty and income inequality are considered. This study tests 102 developing countries with data for the year 2010 by using crosssectional analysis. As empirical findings indicate, globalization reduces poverty and income inequality. These results are also supported by models for analyzing the effects of the subcomponents of globalization. As a result, the economic, political and social globalization reduces poverty and income inequality in developing countries.
Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 donemine ait aylik veriler kullanilarak reel petrol fiya... more Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1992:01-2012:04 donemine ait aylik veriler kullanilarak reel petrol fiyatlari ile dis ticaret dengesi arasindaki iliski, dogrusal olmayan esbutunlesme, dogrusal olmayan ve frekans alani Granger tipi nedensellik analizleri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Analizler sonucunda reel petrol fiyatindan dis ticaret acigina tek yonlu nedenselligin oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir. Fakat nedensellik iliskisi sadece orta vadede gecerlidir. Buna gore Turkiye’de orta vadede petrol fiyatlarindaki oynakliklar dis ticaret aciklarinin olusmasinda etkili iken, uzun vadede dis ticaret aciklari uzerindeki etkisi kaybolmaktadir.
Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2013
Son yillarda, kurum ve kurumsal yapi kavramlari, iktisat teorisince incelenilen en populer kavram... more Son yillarda, kurum ve kurumsal yapi kavramlari, iktisat teorisince incelenilen en populer kavramlardan biri olmustur. Ozellikle, yeni buyume teorileri, makro duzeyde ekonomik buyume uzerinde kurumlarin ve kurumsal yapinin etkileri uzerine odaklanmistir. Mulkiyet haklari da bu kurumsal yapinin ve ekonomik buyume surecinin en onemli unsurlardan biri olarak dusunulmektedir. Bu calismada, 27 Avrupa birligi uyesi ulkelerde mulkiyet haklarinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkisi yatay kesit yontemi kullanilarak arastirilmistir. Calismada elde edilen sonuclar mulkiyet haklarindaki iyilesmelerin ekonomik buyumeyi arttirdigi ortaya koymustur.
Economies, 2017
Solow (1956) has made an essential contribution to the Neo-classical growth approach through the ... more Solow (1956) has made an essential contribution to the Neo-classical growth approach through the economic convergence hypothesis. It assumes that poorer countries' or regions' per capita incomes tend to grow at faster rates than the richer ones. Convergence could occur either among a group of economies with the same steady states or within regions in which their fundamental dynamics differ, and thus they exhibit multiple steady states. This study aims to investigate convergence with respect to GDP per capita across NUTS 2 regions in Turkey for the time period 2004-2014. In the convergence process, we also inquire into role of government in terms of regional government investments and fixed investment incentives. All the empirical results confirm the validity of the convergence hypothesis at a regional level. Also, in the context of the convergence process, it is possible to conclude that the role of government is likely to be decisive in solving regional economic disparities.
Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2017
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 2016
This paper investigates the behavior of Turkish exchange rates within the context of purchasing p... more This paper investigates the behavior of Turkish exchange rates within the context of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis,-employing ten Turkish real exchange rates during January 2002-May 2012-, by means of recent developments in panel unit root testing procedures. When we account for nonlinearity, smooth structural shifts, and cross-section dependency, the empirical analysis supports that PPP hypothesis is valid for Eurozone and European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), while it does not hold for non-European trading partners (Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and USA). From the empirical results, we can conclude that PPP hypothesis is hold in the countries which have the free trade agreement, while it is violated in the countries in which there are trade barriers and greater distance. The findings therefore provide important policy implications for Turkey about determining equilibrium exchange rates with Eurozone and other European Union countr...
Uluslararasi ticaretin serbestlesmesi, iletisim ve ulasim alaninda yasanan gelismeler ulkeler ara... more Uluslararasi ticaretin serbestlesmesi, iletisim ve ulasim alaninda yasanan gelismeler ulkeler arasindaki etkilesimin hizli bir sekilde artmasina neden olmustur. Yukselen etkilesim yabanci paralarin ulkeler arasinda kolaylikla aktarilmasina yardim etmistir. Ulkelerin makroekonomik gostergelerini de etkileyen bu hareketlilik, akademik calismalarin da odak noktalarindan birisi haline gelmistir. Doviz kuru ve hisse senedi piyasalari arasindaki iliskiyi inceleyen bu akademik calismalar teori olarak "geleneksel" ve "portfoy dengesi" modellerini incelemistir. Geleneksel modele gore doviz kurunun artmasi ulkedeki firmalarin mallarini yurt disindaki firmalarin mallarina gore daha ucuz hale getirecek ve firmalarin karliligini artirarak hisse senetlerinin degerlenmesine neden olacaktir (Dornbusch ve Fisher, 1980). Portfoy dengesi modelinde ise portfoyunde cesitli finansal varliklari barindiran yatirimci, ulusal hisse senetlerinin deger kazanmasi sonucunda elindeki yabanci ...
The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by usi... more The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.
Borsa Istanbul Review, 2021
Using data from the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), this study analyzes whether derivatives market operati... more Using data from the Borsa Istanbul (BIST), this study analyzes whether derivatives market operations have a volatility spillover effect on stock indexes using multivariate GARCH models and wavelet methods. We use the DVECH method, with variables for the daily BIST 30 index and BIST 30 index futures contracts between January 5 and September 27, 2017. The results show that wavelet theory is more consistent with M-GARCH models. Our results show that the variance equation demonstrates a general volatility spillover effect from the derivatives market to the stock market, except for the frequency that covers all the series. As the frequency decreases, the effect of time-varying conditional variance decreases, and the effect of past volatility shocks increases. These results indicate that inexperienced investors should be informed about derivatives markets, and the depth of the financial markets in Turkey must be increased.