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Papers by Ghislain Dubois

World Tourism Organization, Madrid, 2008

Http Epublications Unilim Fr Theses, Jul 3, 2013

Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Jan 30, 2009

This report presents a review of the literature concerning approaches to communicating confidence... more This report presents a review of the literature concerning approaches to communicating confidence and uncertainty, with the objective of informing best practice in seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. As issues pertaining to the communication of uncertainty transcend disciplinary boundaries this review draws upon research conducted in a range of fields, including: weather, climate policy, health and medicine, environmental risk management, economics, experimental psychology, and engineering. The review highlights a number of factors that are likely to impact on end-users’ interpretation and usage of information concerning confidence and uncertainty in seasonal-to-decadal climate and climate impact predictions. These include: ambiguity aversion, trust in information providers, institutional protocol, technical expertise, level of precision, the type of visualisation tool(s) used, and systematic thought biases. Methods of presenting uncertainty information in numeric, verbal and v...

Natures Sciences Sociétés, 2015

Développées à partir d'une vision macroéconomique et traitant d'abord de la production, les polit... more Développées à partir d'une vision macroéconomique et traitant d'abord de la production, les politiques climatiques ont longtemps négligé la question des modes de vie, qui sont pourtant à la fois leur résultante et l'un de leurs leviers d'action majeurs. Leur réintroduction dans les inventaires d'émissions -à la fois par une meilleure analyse des échanges entre branches économiques, et par une déduction des exportations et une inclusion des importations -permet de renouveler le cadre d'analyse. Cette approche par la consommation permet d'envisager des objectifs de négociations internationales basées sur une convergence des émissions par tête en matière de mode de vie, articulés avec des objectifs sectoriels, mais aussi de dessiner de futurs outils comme une TVA carbone. Elle se heurte cependant à des contraintes pratiques de mise en oeuvre. À plus court terme, des instruments spécifiques à la sensibilisation et à l'implication des ménages existent, notamment au niveau local. Le présent article vise à fournir les principaux éléments de ces débats sur la base de la littérature récente.

by Daniel Scott, Ghislain Dubois, James Higham, Robin Nunkoo, Ph.D, Paul Upham, Tim Coles, Robert Steiger, Jarkko Saarinen, Susanne Becken, and M Vieira

Tourism Management, 2015

• Rejoinder to claims of • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence ... more • Rejoinder to claims of • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence for climate change is observational and predictive • Extent of tourism related emissions indicated • Concern of climate denial for scientific debate and communication

Low Carbon Economy, 2015

The objectives of this paper are to understand the features of simulated low carbon lifestyles un... more The objectives of this paper are to understand the features of simulated low carbon lifestyles under strong greenhouse gas emissions reduction assumptions (20%, 50%), the nature of trade-offs and the hierarchy of choices operated by households within a limited carbon and financial carbon budget, the acceptability of important changes in consumption patterns, and finally the values and representations, benefits and losses that households express in such changes. The research implemented a protocol combining experimental economy (simulation of carbon budget reductions under financial constraints) and anthropology (semi-structured interviews, to understand the rationale behind choices). Each household of the sample (n = 30) was investigated for 2 -3 days. Firstly, a very detailed carbon footprint of the household was calculated. Then households were proposed a list of 65 pre-defined solutions covering most of available mitigation options, with financial and carbon cost and savings calculated for their real situation. The sample reached an average of −37% (−12%/−64%), with a preference to act on habitat and food and a reluctance to change transport consumption. Due to the amount of reductions asked, low carbon lifestyles finally impact comfort but allow saving money. Recommendations for policies are presented.

Routledge Advances in Tourism, 2008

On an individual or corporate basis, the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from touris... more On an individual or corporate basis, the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tourism transport requires not only initiatives of carbon offsetting (compensation mechanisms), but also to travel less or to travel more efficiently. Be it for personal or professional trips, however, finding and buying less carbon intensive trips requires expertise on the key factors influencing their GHG emissions: modal choice (substitution by train on the entire trip or part of it), minimization of the distance traveled, information on the fuel efficiency of aircraft, the characteristics of the flight (height, load factor, number of stopovers, duration of landing and take-off operations which depends on airports…). Despite the growth in consumers' and corporate awareness, the difficulty to understand and to take into account all these parameters within current reservation systems and to manage trade offs between them limits the ability of individuals to reduce their emissions. Therefore, there is a potential market for travel agencies, which are presently seeking for ways to restore and value their expertise, partly lost with the development of the Internet. This requires adequate GHG calculation and optimization tools, integrated or not in Global Distribution Systems (GDS), new booking procedures, services, and staff training.. Various markets can be targeted : business travel, group or individual leisure travel. This paper presents the rationale and objective of an "ecological travel agency (ECOTA)" project our team endeavors to develop in the coming years.

Routledge Advances in Tourism, 2008

Tourism Management, 2015

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights ... more This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses.

Belgeo, 2005

J Je ea an n--P Pa au ul l C Ce er ro on n U Un ni iv ve er rs si it té é d de e L Li im mo og ge... more J Je ea an n--P Pa au ul l C Ce er ro on n U Un ni iv ve er rs si it té é d de e L Li im mo og ge es s G Gh hi is sl la ai in n D Du ub bo oi is s T To ou ur ri is sm me e E En nv vi ir ro on nn ne em me en nt t C Co on ns su ul lt ta an nt ts s ( (T TE EC C) ), , M Ma ar rs se ei il ll le e ABSTRACT Given the growing dependence of tourism on transport and the contribution of tourism mobility to global warming, this activity might be seriously questioned by mitigation policies. This paper explores prospects for household tourism and leisure mobility and their associated impacts on climate change. Household mobility patterns associating various forms of tourism trips and proximity leisure outings are developed. Their comparison shows that less conventional tourism does not necessarily implies less mobility, also the critical impact of long haul travel on climate change, and that fundamentally the future impacts are strongly associated with the individual choices between tourism and the other uses of spare time. En raison de la dépendance croissante du tourisme vis à vis du transport, mais aussi de la contribution de la mobilité touristique au changement climatique, le développement de cette activité pourrait être sérieusement remis en question par les politiques de lutte contre le changement climatique. Cet article explore les évolutions possibles de la mobilité de tourisme et de loisirs, et ses impacts associés sur le changement climatique. Des profils de mobilité associent différentes formes de mobilité touristique et de mobilité de loisirs. La comparaison de ces profils montre d'abord que moins de tourisme -au sens classique du terme -n'impliquerait pas nécessairement moins de mobilité, ensuite le rôle déterminant des voyages à longue distance en avion, enfin que les arbitrages individuels entre tourisme et autres usages du temps libre sont un facteur déterminant des impacts à venir.

Mondes en développement, 2012

La Nouvelle-Calédonie obtient les meilleurs résultats grâce à des marchés émetteurs diversifiés e... more La Nouvelle-Calédonie obtient les meilleurs résultats grâce à des marchés émetteurs diversifiés et plus proches, notamment en provenance d'Asie et d'Océanie. Grâce à une industrie du nickel en pleine expansion, elle attire des flux de tourisme d'affaires importants, d'Australie, de Nouvelle-Zélande ou encore du Canada. Autre facteur à son avantage, les touristes effectuent des séjours relativement longs.

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in... more Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

Keywords: Tourism; Mobility; Climate change; Mitigation; Scenarios; Backcasting

World Tourism Organization, Madrid, 2008

Http Epublications Unilim Fr Theses, Jul 3, 2013

Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Jan 30, 2009

This report presents a review of the literature concerning approaches to communicating confidence... more This report presents a review of the literature concerning approaches to communicating confidence and uncertainty, with the objective of informing best practice in seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. As issues pertaining to the communication of uncertainty transcend disciplinary boundaries this review draws upon research conducted in a range of fields, including: weather, climate policy, health and medicine, environmental risk management, economics, experimental psychology, and engineering. The review highlights a number of factors that are likely to impact on end-users’ interpretation and usage of information concerning confidence and uncertainty in seasonal-to-decadal climate and climate impact predictions. These include: ambiguity aversion, trust in information providers, institutional protocol, technical expertise, level of precision, the type of visualisation tool(s) used, and systematic thought biases. Methods of presenting uncertainty information in numeric, verbal and v...

Natures Sciences Sociétés, 2015

Développées à partir d'une vision macroéconomique et traitant d'abord de la production, les polit... more Développées à partir d'une vision macroéconomique et traitant d'abord de la production, les politiques climatiques ont longtemps négligé la question des modes de vie, qui sont pourtant à la fois leur résultante et l'un de leurs leviers d'action majeurs. Leur réintroduction dans les inventaires d'émissions -à la fois par une meilleure analyse des échanges entre branches économiques, et par une déduction des exportations et une inclusion des importations -permet de renouveler le cadre d'analyse. Cette approche par la consommation permet d'envisager des objectifs de négociations internationales basées sur une convergence des émissions par tête en matière de mode de vie, articulés avec des objectifs sectoriels, mais aussi de dessiner de futurs outils comme une TVA carbone. Elle se heurte cependant à des contraintes pratiques de mise en oeuvre. À plus court terme, des instruments spécifiques à la sensibilisation et à l'implication des ménages existent, notamment au niveau local. Le présent article vise à fournir les principaux éléments de ces débats sur la base de la littérature récente.

by Daniel Scott, Ghislain Dubois, James Higham, Robin Nunkoo, Ph.D, Paul Upham, Tim Coles, Robert Steiger, Jarkko Saarinen, Susanne Becken, and M Vieira

Tourism Management, 2015

• Rejoinder to claims of • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence ... more • Rejoinder to claims of • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence for climate change is observational and predictive • Extent of tourism related emissions indicated • Concern of climate denial for scientific debate and communication

Low Carbon Economy, 2015

The objectives of this paper are to understand the features of simulated low carbon lifestyles un... more The objectives of this paper are to understand the features of simulated low carbon lifestyles under strong greenhouse gas emissions reduction assumptions (20%, 50%), the nature of trade-offs and the hierarchy of choices operated by households within a limited carbon and financial carbon budget, the acceptability of important changes in consumption patterns, and finally the values and representations, benefits and losses that households express in such changes. The research implemented a protocol combining experimental economy (simulation of carbon budget reductions under financial constraints) and anthropology (semi-structured interviews, to understand the rationale behind choices). Each household of the sample (n = 30) was investigated for 2 -3 days. Firstly, a very detailed carbon footprint of the household was calculated. Then households were proposed a list of 65 pre-defined solutions covering most of available mitigation options, with financial and carbon cost and savings calculated for their real situation. The sample reached an average of −37% (−12%/−64%), with a preference to act on habitat and food and a reluctance to change transport consumption. Due to the amount of reductions asked, low carbon lifestyles finally impact comfort but allow saving money. Recommendations for policies are presented.

Routledge Advances in Tourism, 2008

On an individual or corporate basis, the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from touris... more On an individual or corporate basis, the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tourism transport requires not only initiatives of carbon offsetting (compensation mechanisms), but also to travel less or to travel more efficiently. Be it for personal or professional trips, however, finding and buying less carbon intensive trips requires expertise on the key factors influencing their GHG emissions: modal choice (substitution by train on the entire trip or part of it), minimization of the distance traveled, information on the fuel efficiency of aircraft, the characteristics of the flight (height, load factor, number of stopovers, duration of landing and take-off operations which depends on airports…). Despite the growth in consumers' and corporate awareness, the difficulty to understand and to take into account all these parameters within current reservation systems and to manage trade offs between them limits the ability of individuals to reduce their emissions. Therefore, there is a potential market for travel agencies, which are presently seeking for ways to restore and value their expertise, partly lost with the development of the Internet. This requires adequate GHG calculation and optimization tools, integrated or not in Global Distribution Systems (GDS), new booking procedures, services, and staff training.. Various markets can be targeted : business travel, group or individual leisure travel. This paper presents the rationale and objective of an "ecological travel agency (ECOTA)" project our team endeavors to develop in the coming years.

Routledge Advances in Tourism, 2008

Tourism Management, 2015

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights ... more This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses.

Belgeo, 2005

J Je ea an n--P Pa au ul l C Ce er ro on n U Un ni iv ve er rs si it té é d de e L Li im mo og ge... more J Je ea an n--P Pa au ul l C Ce er ro on n U Un ni iv ve er rs si it té é d de e L Li im mo og ge es s G Gh hi is sl la ai in n D Du ub bo oi is s T To ou ur ri is sm me e E En nv vi ir ro on nn ne em me en nt t C Co on ns su ul lt ta an nt ts s ( (T TE EC C) ), , M Ma ar rs se ei il ll le e ABSTRACT Given the growing dependence of tourism on transport and the contribution of tourism mobility to global warming, this activity might be seriously questioned by mitigation policies. This paper explores prospects for household tourism and leisure mobility and their associated impacts on climate change. Household mobility patterns associating various forms of tourism trips and proximity leisure outings are developed. Their comparison shows that less conventional tourism does not necessarily implies less mobility, also the critical impact of long haul travel on climate change, and that fundamentally the future impacts are strongly associated with the individual choices between tourism and the other uses of spare time. En raison de la dépendance croissante du tourisme vis à vis du transport, mais aussi de la contribution de la mobilité touristique au changement climatique, le développement de cette activité pourrait être sérieusement remis en question par les politiques de lutte contre le changement climatique. Cet article explore les évolutions possibles de la mobilité de tourisme et de loisirs, et ses impacts associés sur le changement climatique. Des profils de mobilité associent différentes formes de mobilité touristique et de mobilité de loisirs. La comparaison de ces profils montre d'abord que moins de tourisme -au sens classique du terme -n'impliquerait pas nécessairement moins de mobilité, ensuite le rôle déterminant des voyages à longue distance en avion, enfin que les arbitrages individuels entre tourisme et autres usages du temps libre sont un facteur déterminant des impacts à venir.

Mondes en développement, 2012

La Nouvelle-Calédonie obtient les meilleurs résultats grâce à des marchés émetteurs diversifiés e... more La Nouvelle-Calédonie obtient les meilleurs résultats grâce à des marchés émetteurs diversifiés et plus proches, notamment en provenance d'Asie et d'Océanie. Grâce à une industrie du nickel en pleine expansion, elle attire des flux de tourisme d'affaires importants, d'Australie, de Nouvelle-Zélande ou encore du Canada. Autre facteur à son avantage, les touristes effectuent des séjours relativement longs.

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in... more Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

Keywords: Tourism; Mobility; Climate change; Mitigation; Scenarios; Backcasting