Project on the Middle East and the Arab Spring (original) (raw)
POMEAS Brief by Project on the Middle East and the Arab Spring
One of the most dramatic consequences of the Syrian civil war has been the massive displacement o... more One of the most dramatic consequences of the Syrian civil war has been the massive displacement of civilians in and outside of Syria. Syrian refugees now constitute more than a quarter of the population in Lebanon. Although the government declared a policy of disassociation – a policy of professed neutrality regarding Syria – this has been undermined due to the presence of a plethora of actors with differing interests. Refugee flow has had severe impacts on national security and the economy, leading to further destabilization in Lebanon. The refugee flow has placed a serious burden on public services delivery including education, healthcare, housing, sanitation, water, and electricity, as well as on physical infrastructure which has lacked adequate capacity. Labor competition and the feeling that Syrians receive different financial treatment has
generated ambivalent attitutes and resentments among locals. Both government and public concerns regarding the Syrian crisis and refugees may increase sectarian volatility and deepen
pre-existing tensions due to the long and tortured history of Syria-Lebanon relations and increasing involvement of Hezbollah in Syria. One extreme risk might be the militarization of refugees. A strong government and regional/international support are vital for Lebanon to ensure stability in such a destabilizing situation.
While the EU has often been criticized for its passiveness towards Arab Spring countries, these u... more While the EU has often been criticized for its passiveness towards Arab Spring countries, these uprisings have provided the EU with its first opportunity to implement its mediation package policies. Although it was previously assumed that these policies only extended to countries in which the prospect of membership concretely existed1, the EU has shifted its neighborhood strategy to include its Southern borders in the Mediterranean, committing a different type of diplomatic mission toward them. Fortified by peacekeeping and crisis management experience at the supranational level, the EU designed a mediation policy under the auspices of the Lisbon Treaty in the wake of the Arab Spring. The EU has made conflict resolution one of its most strategic foreign policy orientations, and meditation has become an essential part of this strategy.
The Egyptian revolution faced its “counter-revolutionary moment” when Abdal Fattah Al-Sisi initia... more The Egyptian revolution faced its “counter-revolutionary moment” when Abdal Fattah Al-Sisi initiated the military coup that toppled the democratically elected president, Muhammad Morsi. In this counter-revolutionary moment, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the two major actors that supported the military coup. In contrast, Turkey and Qatar strongly opposed and positioned themselves against the coup and its supporters. Recent leadership changes in Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s new strategy of softening its position toward its Gulf neighbors created a new political atmosphere in which the two competing camps could overcome difficulties and reach a compromise. Keeping this political environment in mind, this study aims to explore the policies of these four countries toward the military coup in Egypt. In order to better understand the pro/anti-coup positions, the study will focus on the dynamics and motivations that determine the decision-making of Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
This paper discusses two main challenges the current regime in Egypt faces to realize stability i... more This paper discusses two main challenges the current regime in Egypt faces to realize stability in the short or medium term: its ability to reconstitute the political process to make it more inclusive and more participatory and its success in achieving economic recovery. Egypt's Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has been trying to use regional and international achievements to project regime successes and internal stability. However, the real test for his regime is to address the twin challenges of political restructuring and economic revival. So far the tendency is to consolidate individual authoritarianism that marginalizes policy making institutions and relies on the army as an essential political and economic player.
Ever since its outbreak in 2010, the Arab Spring has brought about both hope and misery to the Mi... more Ever since its outbreak in 2010, the Arab Spring has brought about both hope and misery to the Middle East. Its initial phase of euphoria has left behind several unfulfilled revolutions, ethnic wars, and societal polarization. It has raised debates on the virtue of security over democracy against the vicious cycles of violence and conflict. Different methods of conflict resolution ranging from military intervention to mediation have been applied over the course of the Arab Spring. A number of actors took on mediation roles, some of which have been fruitful while others have proved ineffective. This policy brief analyses the mediation attempts made by Qatar within the context of the Arab Spring. It aims to understand to what extent mediation is still a relevant policy tool of Qatari foreign policy. It argues that Qatar's regional aspirations during the Arab Spring have weakened its mediator role. - See more at: http://www.pomeas.org/Home/index.php/publications/pomeas-briefs#sthash.MayFSu7q.dpuf
The Iranians were swift to take credit for the Arab Spring. As becomes a power that considers its... more The Iranians were swift to take credit for the Arab Spring. As becomes a power that considers itself in the avant-garde of regional political developments, if not in the world, the Arab Spring was soon interpreted and presented as a somewhat belated outcome of an Islamic awakening that had originated in the Revolution in Iran back in 1979.
Almost six years after all the rhetorical flourishes and promises that accompanied his entry into... more Almost six years after all the rhetorical flourishes and promises that accompanied his entry into office, the fog has been lifted, and it is now possible to assess his foreign policy record clearly. Two broad questions are explored in my recent book called Obama and the Middle East: The End of America's Moment? in evaluating the Obama foreign policy approach.
In early September 2014, the Islamic State (IS) posted a video message on the internet addressed ... more In early September 2014, the Islamic State (IS) posted a video message on the internet addressed to Vladimir Putin and Bashar Al-Assad. They warned Putin: "Your throne has already teetered . . . and will fall when we come to you . . . Vladimir Putin, the aircraft you sent to Bashar, we, with the grace of Allah, will send back to you."1 In that "message" the Islamic State also promised to "liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus.
A close analysis of sectarian divides in Egypt reveals that, rather than being an inherent part o... more A close analysis of sectarian divides in Egypt reveals that, rather than being an inherent part of society, such divides are manipulated and exacerbated by politicians seeking power. Examples from Sadat, Mubarak, Morsi, and al-Sisi demonstrate the nature of this divisive rhetoric and its negative impact. The sectarian tensions, which have produced an increasing amount of violence after the military coup in the summer of 2013, pose a danger not only to minority groups like Coptic Christians and the Baha'i but also within the Muslim community. The violence only continues to escalate while demanding rapid and appropriate action from the current government.
The Middle East has a long history of water related conflict that extends for 5000 years. In the ... more The Middle East has a long history of water related conflict that extends for 5000 years. In the Israel and Palestine context, however, fresh water sharing is not only a question of a resource conflict, but is also a violation of a fundamental human rights, international water law and humanitarian law principles. Israel's almost exclusive control over water in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), a feature of its prolonged occupation, constitutes a key obstacle not only the realization of Palestinian rights to water and sanitation but amounts to an infringement on the inalienable Palestinian right of self-determination.
POMEAS Paper by Project on the Middle East and the Arab Spring
The global power shift that started over a decade ago has taken a most curious turn in recent yea... more The global power shift that started over a decade ago has taken a most curious turn in recent
years with the decadence of great power politics and the rise of new contenders. The multiple
crises of globalization are imminent on international system. These multiple crises entail a nearly
synchronistic eruption of the following international conundrums: 1) a global economic crisis that
consists of a financial crisis, global recession and unemployment; 2) a crisis of hegemony and
power that comes about with lack of leadership, multipolarity, a deluge within Western modernity
and the emergence of multiple, alternative modernities; 3) the crisis of civilization accompanied by
global climate change, energy scarcity, depleting food resources, and eroding global social justice
with skyrocketing rates of poverty, uneven and “uncompassionate” development, and inequality.
In January 2011, the Arab World appeared in flux. Bouazizi's self-immolation on 17 December 2010 ... more In January 2011, the Arab World appeared in flux. Bouazizi's self-immolation on 17 December 2010 had unleashed a myriad trend of social tumults, and sent shockwaves across the region. In return, the external actors had to adjust to the new Arab World that was unfolding at their doorstep. Like their counterparts in the United States, the European Union, and almost every country that formed a part of the international community, the Pakistani authorities battled with the same set of complications: what if the Middle East and North Africa evolved into a system of regional relations less compatible, or diametrically at odds, with Pakistan's preferences?
How can India's reactions to the Arab Spring be explained? Why did India react differently to the... more How can India's reactions to the Arab Spring be explained? Why did India react differently to the Libyan and Syrian cases? How do India's responses justify its aspiration to take an active role in an emerging multilateral international order? This paper attempts to answer these questions by analyzing India's major interests in the MENA region. India's voting behavior vis-à-vis the UN resolutions during its Security Council tenure offers a critical empirical baseline supporting this analysis. The paper highlights that India's traditional foreign policy based on the non-alignment and non-interventionist principles have been driven by its economy, energy and diaspora-related interests towards the MENA region. The Arab Spring created a dilemma for India in its foreign policy making and a partial deviation from the traditional foreign policy approach, especially in multilateral platforms. Despite these challenges, this paper argues that India successfully resisted the wave of the Arab Spring.
This paper holds an exploratory approach for explaining the latest developments took place betwee... more This paper holds an exploratory approach for explaining the latest developments took place between Israel and Palestine following the heavy attack launched by Israel starting from July 8th this year. The one- sided Israeli attack was the third on Gaza within less than six years. It was carried under the name of Operation Protective Edge and lasted 50 days leaving hundreds of casualties, thousands of injuries and heavy traumas behind. In the light of these developments, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the 50-day-long attack and its aftermath.
Not a year has passed since the coup d'etat in July 2013, which ended the rule of the only civili... more Not a year has passed since the coup d'etat in July 2013, which ended the rule of the only civilian leader in Egyptian politics; Mohammed Morsi. The military takeover has culminated in mass protests and unrest which resulted more than 3000 casualties. The recent victory of the new president, the formal general Abdel Fattah Sisi in June 2014 is built on a transition rule of systematic oppression and restriction of fundamental freedoms.
POMEAS Analysis by Project on the Middle East and the Arab Spring
This is how a young revolutionary Ahmed described the revolution and being in the Tahrir Square. ... more This is how a young revolutionary Ahmed described the revolution and being in the Tahrir Square. The Tahrir Square has been without a doubt the new discourse to unite Egyptians under the same motivation. The first wave of the revolution, after the Day of Rage, the 18 days that shook Egypt has been without a doubt one of the most extraordinary events of the 21st century.
The developments taking place in Egypt since the beginning of January 2011seems to be drawing a v... more The developments taking place in Egypt since the beginning of January 2011seems to be drawing a vicious circle of change and order. The events starting from the Revolution until the Sisi era today have a constant pattern; major changes take place in Egypt, an atmosphere of order follows them and eventually change comes again. The 2011 Tahrir Revolution and Hosni Mubarak's resignation soon afterwards are only starting points of this pattern which are also the beginning of the turmoil still continuing today.
One of the most dramatic consequences of the Syrian civil war has been the massive displacement o... more One of the most dramatic consequences of the Syrian civil war has been the massive displacement of civilians in and outside of Syria. Syrian refugees now constitute more than a quarter of the population in Lebanon. Although the government declared a policy of disassociation – a policy of professed neutrality regarding Syria – this has been undermined due to the presence of a plethora of actors with differing interests. Refugee flow has had severe impacts on national security and the economy, leading to further destabilization in Lebanon. The refugee flow has placed a serious burden on public services delivery including education, healthcare, housing, sanitation, water, and electricity, as well as on physical infrastructure which has lacked adequate capacity. Labor competition and the feeling that Syrians receive different financial treatment has
generated ambivalent attitutes and resentments among locals. Both government and public concerns regarding the Syrian crisis and refugees may increase sectarian volatility and deepen
pre-existing tensions due to the long and tortured history of Syria-Lebanon relations and increasing involvement of Hezbollah in Syria. One extreme risk might be the militarization of refugees. A strong government and regional/international support are vital for Lebanon to ensure stability in such a destabilizing situation.
While the EU has often been criticized for its passiveness towards Arab Spring countries, these u... more While the EU has often been criticized for its passiveness towards Arab Spring countries, these uprisings have provided the EU with its first opportunity to implement its mediation package policies. Although it was previously assumed that these policies only extended to countries in which the prospect of membership concretely existed1, the EU has shifted its neighborhood strategy to include its Southern borders in the Mediterranean, committing a different type of diplomatic mission toward them. Fortified by peacekeeping and crisis management experience at the supranational level, the EU designed a mediation policy under the auspices of the Lisbon Treaty in the wake of the Arab Spring. The EU has made conflict resolution one of its most strategic foreign policy orientations, and meditation has become an essential part of this strategy.
The Egyptian revolution faced its “counter-revolutionary moment” when Abdal Fattah Al-Sisi initia... more The Egyptian revolution faced its “counter-revolutionary moment” when Abdal Fattah Al-Sisi initiated the military coup that toppled the democratically elected president, Muhammad Morsi. In this counter-revolutionary moment, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the two major actors that supported the military coup. In contrast, Turkey and Qatar strongly opposed and positioned themselves against the coup and its supporters. Recent leadership changes in Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s new strategy of softening its position toward its Gulf neighbors created a new political atmosphere in which the two competing camps could overcome difficulties and reach a compromise. Keeping this political environment in mind, this study aims to explore the policies of these four countries toward the military coup in Egypt. In order to better understand the pro/anti-coup positions, the study will focus on the dynamics and motivations that determine the decision-making of Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
This paper discusses two main challenges the current regime in Egypt faces to realize stability i... more This paper discusses two main challenges the current regime in Egypt faces to realize stability in the short or medium term: its ability to reconstitute the political process to make it more inclusive and more participatory and its success in achieving economic recovery. Egypt's Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has been trying to use regional and international achievements to project regime successes and internal stability. However, the real test for his regime is to address the twin challenges of political restructuring and economic revival. So far the tendency is to consolidate individual authoritarianism that marginalizes policy making institutions and relies on the army as an essential political and economic player.
Ever since its outbreak in 2010, the Arab Spring has brought about both hope and misery to the Mi... more Ever since its outbreak in 2010, the Arab Spring has brought about both hope and misery to the Middle East. Its initial phase of euphoria has left behind several unfulfilled revolutions, ethnic wars, and societal polarization. It has raised debates on the virtue of security over democracy against the vicious cycles of violence and conflict. Different methods of conflict resolution ranging from military intervention to mediation have been applied over the course of the Arab Spring. A number of actors took on mediation roles, some of which have been fruitful while others have proved ineffective. This policy brief analyses the mediation attempts made by Qatar within the context of the Arab Spring. It aims to understand to what extent mediation is still a relevant policy tool of Qatari foreign policy. It argues that Qatar's regional aspirations during the Arab Spring have weakened its mediator role. - See more at: http://www.pomeas.org/Home/index.php/publications/pomeas-briefs#sthash.MayFSu7q.dpuf
The Iranians were swift to take credit for the Arab Spring. As becomes a power that considers its... more The Iranians were swift to take credit for the Arab Spring. As becomes a power that considers itself in the avant-garde of regional political developments, if not in the world, the Arab Spring was soon interpreted and presented as a somewhat belated outcome of an Islamic awakening that had originated in the Revolution in Iran back in 1979.
Almost six years after all the rhetorical flourishes and promises that accompanied his entry into... more Almost six years after all the rhetorical flourishes and promises that accompanied his entry into office, the fog has been lifted, and it is now possible to assess his foreign policy record clearly. Two broad questions are explored in my recent book called Obama and the Middle East: The End of America's Moment? in evaluating the Obama foreign policy approach.
In early September 2014, the Islamic State (IS) posted a video message on the internet addressed ... more In early September 2014, the Islamic State (IS) posted a video message on the internet addressed to Vladimir Putin and Bashar Al-Assad. They warned Putin: "Your throne has already teetered . . . and will fall when we come to you . . . Vladimir Putin, the aircraft you sent to Bashar, we, with the grace of Allah, will send back to you."1 In that "message" the Islamic State also promised to "liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus.
A close analysis of sectarian divides in Egypt reveals that, rather than being an inherent part o... more A close analysis of sectarian divides in Egypt reveals that, rather than being an inherent part of society, such divides are manipulated and exacerbated by politicians seeking power. Examples from Sadat, Mubarak, Morsi, and al-Sisi demonstrate the nature of this divisive rhetoric and its negative impact. The sectarian tensions, which have produced an increasing amount of violence after the military coup in the summer of 2013, pose a danger not only to minority groups like Coptic Christians and the Baha'i but also within the Muslim community. The violence only continues to escalate while demanding rapid and appropriate action from the current government.
The Middle East has a long history of water related conflict that extends for 5000 years. In the ... more The Middle East has a long history of water related conflict that extends for 5000 years. In the Israel and Palestine context, however, fresh water sharing is not only a question of a resource conflict, but is also a violation of a fundamental human rights, international water law and humanitarian law principles. Israel's almost exclusive control over water in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), a feature of its prolonged occupation, constitutes a key obstacle not only the realization of Palestinian rights to water and sanitation but amounts to an infringement on the inalienable Palestinian right of self-determination.
The global power shift that started over a decade ago has taken a most curious turn in recent yea... more The global power shift that started over a decade ago has taken a most curious turn in recent
years with the decadence of great power politics and the rise of new contenders. The multiple
crises of globalization are imminent on international system. These multiple crises entail a nearly
synchronistic eruption of the following international conundrums: 1) a global economic crisis that
consists of a financial crisis, global recession and unemployment; 2) a crisis of hegemony and
power that comes about with lack of leadership, multipolarity, a deluge within Western modernity
and the emergence of multiple, alternative modernities; 3) the crisis of civilization accompanied by
global climate change, energy scarcity, depleting food resources, and eroding global social justice
with skyrocketing rates of poverty, uneven and “uncompassionate” development, and inequality.
In January 2011, the Arab World appeared in flux. Bouazizi's self-immolation on 17 December 2010 ... more In January 2011, the Arab World appeared in flux. Bouazizi's self-immolation on 17 December 2010 had unleashed a myriad trend of social tumults, and sent shockwaves across the region. In return, the external actors had to adjust to the new Arab World that was unfolding at their doorstep. Like their counterparts in the United States, the European Union, and almost every country that formed a part of the international community, the Pakistani authorities battled with the same set of complications: what if the Middle East and North Africa evolved into a system of regional relations less compatible, or diametrically at odds, with Pakistan's preferences?
How can India's reactions to the Arab Spring be explained? Why did India react differently to the... more How can India's reactions to the Arab Spring be explained? Why did India react differently to the Libyan and Syrian cases? How do India's responses justify its aspiration to take an active role in an emerging multilateral international order? This paper attempts to answer these questions by analyzing India's major interests in the MENA region. India's voting behavior vis-à-vis the UN resolutions during its Security Council tenure offers a critical empirical baseline supporting this analysis. The paper highlights that India's traditional foreign policy based on the non-alignment and non-interventionist principles have been driven by its economy, energy and diaspora-related interests towards the MENA region. The Arab Spring created a dilemma for India in its foreign policy making and a partial deviation from the traditional foreign policy approach, especially in multilateral platforms. Despite these challenges, this paper argues that India successfully resisted the wave of the Arab Spring.
This paper holds an exploratory approach for explaining the latest developments took place betwee... more This paper holds an exploratory approach for explaining the latest developments took place between Israel and Palestine following the heavy attack launched by Israel starting from July 8th this year. The one- sided Israeli attack was the third on Gaza within less than six years. It was carried under the name of Operation Protective Edge and lasted 50 days leaving hundreds of casualties, thousands of injuries and heavy traumas behind. In the light of these developments, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the 50-day-long attack and its aftermath.
Not a year has passed since the coup d'etat in July 2013, which ended the rule of the only civili... more Not a year has passed since the coup d'etat in July 2013, which ended the rule of the only civilian leader in Egyptian politics; Mohammed Morsi. The military takeover has culminated in mass protests and unrest which resulted more than 3000 casualties. The recent victory of the new president, the formal general Abdel Fattah Sisi in June 2014 is built on a transition rule of systematic oppression and restriction of fundamental freedoms.
This is how a young revolutionary Ahmed described the revolution and being in the Tahrir Square. ... more This is how a young revolutionary Ahmed described the revolution and being in the Tahrir Square. The Tahrir Square has been without a doubt the new discourse to unite Egyptians under the same motivation. The first wave of the revolution, after the Day of Rage, the 18 days that shook Egypt has been without a doubt one of the most extraordinary events of the 21st century.
The developments taking place in Egypt since the beginning of January 2011seems to be drawing a v... more The developments taking place in Egypt since the beginning of January 2011seems to be drawing a vicious circle of change and order. The events starting from the Revolution until the Sisi era today have a constant pattern; major changes take place in Egypt, an atmosphere of order follows them and eventually change comes again. The 2011 Tahrir Revolution and Hosni Mubarak's resignation soon afterwards are only starting points of this pattern which are also the beginning of the turmoil still continuing today.
There are striking similarities in the responses to rape and murder cases of women in India and T... more There are striking similarities in the responses to rape and murder cases of women in India and Turkey: a predilection for punitive measures without addressing the root causes of violence.
When the Obama administration's ground-breaking effort to carve out a nuclear deal was in its ini... more When the Obama administration's ground-breaking effort to carve out a nuclear deal was in its initial phases, the process carried the potential to lead the region towards a more secure and stable future. With pros and cons of the talks, there was a general awareness that any rapprochement should not be limited solely to a nuclear-focused deal between the U.S. and Iran and should address the broader regional security concerns, which would otherwise pave the way for a new destabilizing spiral of Iranian expansionism and sectarianism effectively leading to regional confrontation and nuclear proliferation.
The cautious engagement of Japan in the Middle East received a hostile 'welcome' by the Islamic S... more The cautious engagement of Japan in the Middle East received a hostile 'welcome' by the Islamic State. The hostage crises broke out just a few days after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to the region. The failure to handle the crisis showed the limitations of Japan's soft-power to have a say on the ground.
While uprisings were gaining ground in its South-Mediterranean neighboring countries, the EU surp... more While uprisings were gaining ground in its South-Mediterranean neighboring countries, the EU surprisingly adopted an ambiguous reaction, between "spectatorship and actorness".1 As a main economic partner of Arab countries, the EU look after rooted links with them and kept influencing the region through its political conditionality to enhance economic liberalization and prevent from political instability, by supporting authoritarian regimes.
While protests beginning in Tunisia and sweeping over the Middle East sparked interest from media... more While protests beginning in Tunisia and sweeping over the Middle East sparked interest from media outlets around the world, a recent African uprising has been widely sidelined by Western media. On October 31, 2014, protests toppled President Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso who had been in power for 27 years.
There is an uninformed debate going on about the Middle East, easily sticking to clichés rather t... more There is an uninformed debate going on about the Middle East, easily sticking to clichés rather than analyzing the structural and conjunctural variables that define the course of events. Therefore, Hazem Kandil does a great job in evaluating the post-colonial history of Egypt with a long-termist perspective in his book "Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt's Road to Revolt" published by Verso in 2012.
Zahra and Salma were 16 the night they sneaked out of their warm beds in their family home and de... more Zahra and Salma were 16 the night they sneaked out of their warm beds in their family home and departed for a hazy future. They had been top-ranking students, scoring among the ten per cent across the UK in their GCSE exams.
For the third time in the last six years, Israel has cruelly unleashed the full fury of its milit... more For the third time in the last six years, Israel has cruelly unleashed the full fury of its military machine against the defenceless 1.7 million people of Gaza, inflicting heavy civilian casualties and further devastation on the long besieged and impoverished Gaza Strip.
A major undertaking of the victorious powers in World War II was to impose individual criminal ac... more A major undertaking of the victorious powers in World War II was to impose individual criminal accountability upon political and military leaders for alleged crimes committed during wartime before a tribunal that gave those accused a fair opportunity to present a defense. This application of this idea of accountability to surviving German and Japanese leaders at trials held in Nuremberg and Tokyo was hailed at the time as a major step in the direction of a "just peace".
As the hideous Israeli assault on Gaza, named Operation Protective Edge, by the IDF enters its se... more As the hideous Israeli assault on Gaza, named Operation Protective Edge, by the IDF enters its second week, overdue international appeals for a ceasefire fall on deaf ears. Bibi Netanyahu tells the world that no outside pressure will alter Israel's resolve to reach its military and political goals to disable Hamas for the indefinite future.
Ever since this latest Israeli major military operation against Gaza started on 8 July, there hav... more Ever since this latest Israeli major military operation against Gaza started on 8 July, there have been frequent suggestions that Israel is guilty of war crimes, and that Palestine should do its best to activate the International Criminal Court (ICC) on its behalf.
In his victory speech following the March 30th municipal elections, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan... more In his victory speech following the March 30th municipal elections, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned a de facto war with Syria. This speech was after an intense political struggle by unusual means, including corruption allegations, leaked voice recordings, court files and remarkable media campaigns.
Russian diplomacy on the elimination of chemical weapons in Syria represents a significant achiev... more Russian diplomacy on the elimination of chemical weapons in Syria represents a significant achievement. This development provides some relief to the ongoing humanitarian disaster in Syria. It will put an end to the terrifying mass deaths caused by chemical weapons.
President Barack Obama is arriving in Saudi Arabia at a critical moment for the country. Its rece... more President Barack Obama is arriving in Saudi Arabia at a critical moment for the country. Its recent decision to withdraw its ambassador from Qatar has revealed the gravity of the crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), composed of the Kingdom's most immediate neighbors. Indeed, Gulf politics is shifting toward a new balance in the wake of the Saudi-UAE rapprochement and the recent attempt to isolate Qatar.
I have been struck by the unhelpfulness of ideology to my own efforts to think through the comple... more I have been struck by the unhelpfulness of ideology to my own efforts to think through the complexities of recommended or preferred policy in relation to Syria, and more recently, the Ukraine. There is no obvious posture to be struck by referencing a 'left' or 'right' identity. A convincing policy proposal depends on sensitivity to context and the particulars of the conflict.
In December 2013 the World Bank proudly announced a rare agreement on water among Israel, Jordan ... more In December 2013 the World Bank proudly announced a rare agreement on water among Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Middle East is not a region where cooperation among states is common, especially in relation to water. Therefore, the news about this so-called "water cooperation agreement" made headlines in the global media.
The U.S. administration is only concerned about a few particular issues in the Middle East and is... more The U.S. administration is only concerned about a few particular issues in the Middle East and is aiming to achieve the earliest possible exit from the region. The Iran deal was a tick mark and another item on the list is the anticipated elimination of chemical weapons in Syria.
I will analyze the Arab Spring in the Middle East, what has changed after the Arab Spring and its... more I will analyze the Arab Spring in the Middle East, what has changed after the Arab Spring and its effects on Turkish foreign policy. To start with, when we look at Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East, we can say that the year 1999 was an important turning point for two main reasons.
Particularly looking at the Middle East, what are some key similarities and differences between t... more Particularly looking at the Middle East, what are some key similarities and differences between the foreign policy approaches of the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations?
Emad Shahin: Let us start with the concepts first. The first concept is what became known as 'Ara... more Emad Shahin: Let us start with the concepts first. The first concept is what became known as 'Arab Spring.' Moving beyond clichés, what the region witnessed in 2011 is a massive wave of popular uprisings that reflected "People Power" that called for freedom, dignity and social justice. These demands were not welcome by the custodians of the old regime and some conservative regional and international powers that engineered a destabilization process in the transitioning countries and succeeded in turning the 'Spring' into a chilling 'Winter'. Nonetheless, a reassuring thing is that the driving causes behind the uprisings of 2011 are still there and indicate that we have not seen the end of these popular waves yet. Now, turning to your question, there are obviously certain things that the Arab Spring has achieved. The question now is 'to what extent these changes are really sustainable or permanent as the question raises and to what extent they are temporary.' I think the most important thing is the manifestation of people's power. The outpouring of hundreds of thousands and millions of Egyptians to the streets all united on one goal broke the cliché or stereotype about Arabs that they do not protest except for bread or when they are told to by their autocratic regimes. This time, however, people went against corruption, injustice and against autocratic and authoritarian regimes. They were seeking freedom, social justice, economic growth and prosperity, as well. These values go beyond the material things and point out to a new framework of governance. They are closely related to democracy, human rights, rule of law, and balanced and sustainable development. This was the power of the people. People can express themselves on the streets; express their demands in huge numbers; and in the end, can overpower repressive authorities. This was one element that we can summarize is self-determination, emancipation and popular sovereignty.
