Celina Realuyo | National Defense University (original) (raw)
Papers by Celina Realuyo
Revista Digital Tambara ESPE Ecuador , 2025
Actualmente, el crimen organizado en Ecuador representa la principal amenaza para la seguridad na... more Actualmente, el crimen organizado en Ecuador representa la principal amenaza para la seguridad nacional y genera efectos negativos en los ámbitos político, económico y social; el hecho de haber adoptado la dolarización favorece el lavado de dinero y la corrupción; Ecuador es el principal corredor logístico del narcotráfico en la costa del Océano Pacífico, y evidencia la expansión de variadas economías criminales. El trabajo tiene como objetivo
analizar el impacto de las economías ilícitas en el contexto del crimen organizado en Ecuador, considerando la dolarización de su economía y la ubicación geográfica estratégica. Se realizó un estudio exploratorio, documental, con la revisión de varias fuentes secundarias y el criterio de expertos. El incremento de las economías ilícitas ha generado mayor poder de las organizaciones criminales exacerbando la violencia e inseguridad, con lo cual es esencial implementar medidas regulatorias estrictas y fomentar la cooperación interagencial e internacional para combatir con éxito el crimen organizado en Ecuador.
U.S. Northern Command Journal The Watch, 2024
An opioid epidemic in the United States led to over 107,000 overdose deaths in 2022, with 70% of ... more An opioid epidemic in the United States led to over 107,000 overdose deaths in 2022, with 70% of those due to synthetic opioids like fentanyl. This lethal drug has become the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18 to 49, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fentanyl and related precursor chemicals that are trafficked into the U.S. come from China and are synthetized by Mexican cartels for the U.S. market. The U.S. government recognizes the urgent need to decrease the demand for and consumption of fentanyl and stem the supply of this deadly drug. A whole-of-society approach and international cooperation are necessary to address this growing epidemic affecting North America, and signs of progress are emerging.
At the North American Leaders’ Summit in Mexico City in January 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to intensify and expand coordinated efforts to prosecute drug traffickers, dismantle criminal networks and disrupt the supply of precursor chemicals used to make illicit fentanyl. They pledged to prevent the trafficking of drugs, firearms and people across shared borders. As a result of the summit, a senior-level Trilateral Fentanyl Committee was established to guide priority actions to address the illicit fentanyl threat facing North America.
Atlantic Council: How the United States can counter malign Chinese and Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere , 2024
The Biden administration identified China and Russia as strategic competitors in its 2022 Nationa... more The Biden administration identified China and Russia as strategic competitors in its 2022 National Security Strategy, and this rivalry with malign state actors is on full display in the western hemisphere. For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia have been expanding their influence across the Americas via the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic domains. Now they are engaging in new areas to include emerging technologies, cyberspace, and outer space. These strategic competitors have been supporting autocratic regimes and threatening democracy, prosperity, and security in the region. The Chinese have aggressive investment and commercial projects underway to secure new markets and strategic resources to expand their global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since the Cold War, Russia has challenged US influence in the Americas by sponsoring like-minded regimes including Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua and fomenting unrest in democratic states. This article will examine PRC efforts to expand its economic footprint in the region in the emerging technologies and critical infrastructure arenas. It will also analyze Russian foreign influence operations in the cyber domain with disinformation campaigns intended to destabilize democratic governments allied with the United States. To counter growing Chinese and Russian influence in the cyber and emerging technologies domains in the region, the United States must adopt a more proactive stance by doubling down on constructive investment and commercial activities with partner nations, and educating the region on US engagements that contribute to economic growth and democracy, and discredit disinformation campaigns in the Americas.
Congressional Testimony, 2024
Congressional Testimony before the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight of the... more Congressional Testimony before the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight of the U.S. Senate Committee Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on March 20, 2024
Examination of how the U.S., China and Mexico are cooperating to curb illicit fentanyl flows into the United States and ways to address the global supply chain, drug demand and related money laundering.
Wilson Center Weekly Asado, 2023
The October 7 attack by Hamas against Israel killed 1,200 people, including 32 U.S. citizens, and... more The October 7 attack by Hamas against Israel killed 1,200 people, including 32 U.S. citizens, and renewed the global focus on radical Islamic terrorism. Those fears include the grim possibility that Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, could join the fight against Israel, draw in the United States, and carry out and inspire terrorist attacks in the United States and other regions, including Latin America.
Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and
Considering that Latin America presents itself as one of the most violent regions in the planet a... more Considering that Latin America presents itself as one of the most violent regions in the planet and that the increase of violence seems to be closely related to the advance of criminality, the present article tends to define as closely as possible, what organized crime is. It also seeks to analyze its manifestations in the region, with a major emphasis on the role of drug trafficking as an enhancer of other illicit activities. Finally, we work on a little-known dimension of criminality: the costs that their existence brings to the societies that suffer.
Este libro constituye un balance anual que recoge las perspectivas de tomadores de decisión, dipl... more Este libro constituye un balance anual que recoge las perspectivas de tomadores de decisión, diplomáticos, empresarios, representantes de gre¬mios empresariales, periodistas, representantes de organizacio¬nes no gubernamentales (ONG) y académicos, sobre las decisiones, las acciones y las estrategias que los gobiernos colombianos han tomado en materia de política exterior. Este volumen brinda un balance de la política exterior del gobierno Duque, en especial lo concer¬niente a las prioridades temáticas y las relaciones bilaterales y multilaterales de esta administración. Las cuestiones temáticas incluyen el manejo de la crisis regional suscitada por la masiva migración venezolana, la posición en torno al Acuerdo de Paz con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), la definición de las agendas de seguridad y defensa, ambiental y de inserción económica, y la defensa jurídica del Estado en el marco de los litigios con Nicaragua ante la Corte Internacional de Justicia. El a...
Congressional Testimony, 2023
Congressional Testimony: “China and the Mexican Cartels’ Asymmetrical War through the Illicit Fen... more Congressional Testimony: “China and the Mexican Cartels’ Asymmetrical War through the Illicit Fentanyl Trade” at a hearing on “Follow the Money: The CCP’s Business Model Fueling the Fentanyl Crisis” before the Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions of the Committee on Financial Services of the U.S. House of Representatives on March 23
Desafíos y Amenazas a la Seguridad en América Latina, 2022
Los flujos financieros ilícitos representan una amenaza para la seguridad y el desarrollo polític... more Los flujos financieros ilícitos representan una amenaza para la seguridad y el desarrollo político, económico y social de los países de todo el mundo, particularmente en las Américas. El dinero procedente de actividades ilegales, también llamado dinero negro o dinero sucio, sirve como elemento vital para las redes ilícitas que incluyen a terroristas, delincuentes, traficantes y colaboradores, proporcionando una ventana y un punto de entrada vulnerable a estas organizaciones subrepticias. El lavado de dinero y el financiamiento del terrorismo permiten que los grupos terroristas y las organizaciones criminales transnacionales lleven a cabo sus operaciones y promuevan sus perversas agendas, contribuyendo a altos niveles de inseguridad y violencia en toda América Latina. Los grupos armados en las Américas se han vuelto cada vez más poderosos y ricos, socavando las economías legítimas y las instituciones democráticas. Durante los últimos 20 años, los gobiernos han empleado cada vez más el “seguimiento del rastro del dinero” para comprender, detectar, interrumpir y contrarrestar de mejor manera las redes ilícitas, debiendo mantenerse al tanto de la evolución de los métodos de financiación de las amenazas para combatir las redes criminales y terroristas, incluyendo sus flujos financieros ilícitos, así como para promover la seguridad, la prosperidad y el buen gobierno en las Américas.
Corruption and Institutionalization in America, edited by Mariano César Bartolomé, Marcio Adriano Anselmo and Marcio Borges Ferreira, 83-104. Washington,DC: Inter-American Defense College,, 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the post-World War II political, economic, social and internati... more The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the post-World War II political, economic, social and international order with many questioning whether our current democratic and economic institutions are suitable for and capable of recovering from this profound health, economic and governance crisis. While democracies and open economies were hard hit by the pandemic, illicit networks including transnational criminal groups, terrorist organizations and their facilitators have proven more resilient, expanding their activities and influence in the Americas. This article will examine the impact COVID-19 has had on the health, economy, democracy, security of the region and on illicit networks. The article will conclude with recommendations on how nations incorporate strategic foresight and anticipatory governance to safeguard their sovereignty and counter to the growing threats from corruption and illicit networks in the new world order.
Key Words: Illicit Networks, Transnational Organized Crime, Corruption, COVID-19 Pandemic, Strategic Foresight, Anticipatory Governance
Dialogo Digital Military Magazine, 2022
During the COVID-19 pandemic, life as we knew it changed dramatically as activities, both licit a... more During the COVID-19 pandemic, life as we knew it changed dramatically as activities, both licit and illicit, moved to the virtual world. We witnessed shopping, college classes, diplomatic meetings, financial transactions, and organized crime activities transition online almost overnight. The pandemic has empowered transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) to establish new virtual markets for their drug, human, arms, and contraband trafficking and money laundering with cryptocurrencies.
In 2021, cryptocurrencies have gone mainstream with more consumers using them to pay for goods and services and investing millions into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and other virtual currencies that reached a total market capitalization of about $2.2 trillion in September. A cryptocurrency is a medium of exchange that is digital, encrypted, decentralized, and unregulated in contrast to the U.S. dollar or the euro. Even governments themselves are exploring the possible issuance of central bank digital currencies or digital cash. The Venezuelan regime issued its own cryptocurrency, the petro, in 2018 purportedly backed by the country’s oil and mineral reserves, and El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021.
Hearing on “The $150 Billion Drug Market: A Dive into the Economics of Cartels”, 2022
Thank you Chairman Whitehouse and Co-Chairman Grassley and members of the Senate Caucus on Intern... more Thank you Chairman Whitehouse and Co-Chairman Grassley and members of the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control for the opportunity to testify today on countering the evolving drug trade and the digitalization of illicit networks in the Americas. During the pandemic, transnational criminal organizations, such as the Mexican cartels, have quickly adapted to a changing environment and leveraged cyberspace to empower and enrich themselves. This testimony will examine the transforming drug market, the U.S. opioid epidemic, the role of the cyber domain as a force multiplier for drug trafficking and money laundering and recommend measures to counter the illicit economy.
“The Need to Deepen U.S.-Colombian Bilateral Cooperation” at a SFRC Hearing on “Reinvigorating U.S.-Colombia Relations” before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 2022
Colombia is one of the closest partners of the U.S. in Latin America, sharing democratic values, ... more Colombia is one of the closest partners of the U.S. in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-market capitalism, and mutual security interests. Colombia is facing a triple crisis of mass social protests, increased insecurity and serious fiscal and economic challenges from the pandemic. These internal crises along with external actors like Venezuela, China and Russia and an expanding illicit economy are destabilizing the political, economic, social, and security aspects of Colombia ahead of their presidential elections. The U.S. must redouble its efforts to strengthen its partnership with Colombia to assist the country confront the formidable challenges to security, democracy and post-pandemic economic fallout and realize free and fair elections this year.
American Foreign Policy Council Defense Dossier, Issue 32, 2021
The U.S. and Mexico are facing an increasing convergence of transnational threats from narcotics ... more The U.S. and Mexico are facing an increasing convergence of transnational threats from narcotics trafficking and irregular migration affecting the security and prosperity of North American neighbors. U.S.-Mexican security cooperation under President Joe Biden and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) remains a formidable challenge due to competing priorities and significant levels of mistrust. These cross-border tensions come at a critical time as violence and homicide rates in Mexico remain close to historic highs. Unprecedented flows of narcotics and irregular migrants are expected to continue if not intensify as the border reopens to trade and travel and the economy recovers from the pandemic. Recent senior-level U.S.-Mexican engagements like the North American Leaders’ Summit and the Bi-Centennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities could serve as opportunities to revitalize important collaboration between the U.S. and Mexico to confront these transnational security threats.
America’s Longtime Friend, Colombia, Needs U.S. Help, 2021
Colombia is one of the U.S.’s closest partners in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-... more Colombia is one of the U.S.’s closest partners in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-market capitalism, and mutual security interests. The U.S. is Colombia’s largest trade and investment partner, thanks to the U.S.–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Through “Plan Colombia,” the U.S. and Colombia have built a strong counterterrorism and counter-narcotics partnership to combat the cocaine trade and armed groups like FARC. Colombia has been generous in welcoming over 1.8 million Venezuelans fleeing the Maduro regime and providing assistance to its Latin American neighbors. As Colombia faces increased instability, the U.S. must stand by its trusted ally and its democratically elected government under Iván Duque to ensure continued security and prosperity in Colombia and across the region.
Law and justice/Criminal justice; Military/Military roles; Politics and government/International ... more Law and justice/Criminal justice; Military/Military roles; Politics and government/International relations
Prism: A Journal of the Center for Complex Operations, 2019
For decades, cocaine was the narcotic of choice in the United States. For decades it drove the so... more For decades, cocaine was the narcotic of choice in the United States. For decades it drove the so-called “war on drugs” against Colombian and Mexican drug cartels, depicted in films like “Clear and Present Danger” and more recently in the popular Netflix series “Narcos.” Narcotics consumption in the United States, however, has recently shifted from cocaine to opioids like heroin and, increasingly, from plant-based to synthetic drugs like methamphetamines and fentanyl. Heroin use has spread into suburban and rural communities and is growing among most socioeconomic classes, age groups, and races. Potent synthetic opioids like fentanyl have become mixed into black-market supplies of heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine and are fueling a high-mortality rate, and compounding the crisis. Unfortunately, U.S. military veterans, many of whom suffer from chronic pain as a result of their service, are twice as likely as the average American to die from a drug overdose involving an opioid. This crisis is adversely impacting public health, social welfare, the economy, and the national security of the United States. Canada and Mexico are similarly experiencing increased opioid trafficking, use, and addiction. This article will describe the evolution of the opioid trade and epidemic, examine current policies that address supply and demand reduction in the United States and abroad, and advocate the urgent need for more prevention, treatment, and interdiction efforts through interagency, inter-sectorial, and international collaboration.
The age of globalization has afforded us greater access to goods, services, financing, and inform... more The age of globalization has afforded us greater access to goods, services, financing, and information -‐ faster, better, and cheaper⎯from an increasingly interconnected economy. The breakdown of commercial barriers has lifted millions from poverty and promoted the free movement of labor, capital, technology, and ideas around the world. Alongside all this unprecedented progress, we have witnessed a dark side of globalization that has empowered illicit networks including terrorists, criminals and proliferators that threatens security and prosperity. The global trafficking of drugs, arms, people, and counterfeit goods, and the money laundering that accompany these illicit activities, compromise the safety and soundness of consumers, rob inventors of their intellectual property, and deny significant tax revenues used to support nations. Governments have been engaged in combating illicit trafficking since the age of the ancient Greeks and Romans; what is different today is that the dr...
Revista Digital Tambara ESPE Ecuador , 2025
Actualmente, el crimen organizado en Ecuador representa la principal amenaza para la seguridad na... more Actualmente, el crimen organizado en Ecuador representa la principal amenaza para la seguridad nacional y genera efectos negativos en los ámbitos político, económico y social; el hecho de haber adoptado la dolarización favorece el lavado de dinero y la corrupción; Ecuador es el principal corredor logístico del narcotráfico en la costa del Océano Pacífico, y evidencia la expansión de variadas economías criminales. El trabajo tiene como objetivo
analizar el impacto de las economías ilícitas en el contexto del crimen organizado en Ecuador, considerando la dolarización de su economía y la ubicación geográfica estratégica. Se realizó un estudio exploratorio, documental, con la revisión de varias fuentes secundarias y el criterio de expertos. El incremento de las economías ilícitas ha generado mayor poder de las organizaciones criminales exacerbando la violencia e inseguridad, con lo cual es esencial implementar medidas regulatorias estrictas y fomentar la cooperación interagencial e internacional para combatir con éxito el crimen organizado en Ecuador.
U.S. Northern Command Journal The Watch, 2024
An opioid epidemic in the United States led to over 107,000 overdose deaths in 2022, with 70% of ... more An opioid epidemic in the United States led to over 107,000 overdose deaths in 2022, with 70% of those due to synthetic opioids like fentanyl. This lethal drug has become the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18 to 49, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fentanyl and related precursor chemicals that are trafficked into the U.S. come from China and are synthetized by Mexican cartels for the U.S. market. The U.S. government recognizes the urgent need to decrease the demand for and consumption of fentanyl and stem the supply of this deadly drug. A whole-of-society approach and international cooperation are necessary to address this growing epidemic affecting North America, and signs of progress are emerging.
At the North American Leaders’ Summit in Mexico City in January 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed to intensify and expand coordinated efforts to prosecute drug traffickers, dismantle criminal networks and disrupt the supply of precursor chemicals used to make illicit fentanyl. They pledged to prevent the trafficking of drugs, firearms and people across shared borders. As a result of the summit, a senior-level Trilateral Fentanyl Committee was established to guide priority actions to address the illicit fentanyl threat facing North America.
Atlantic Council: How the United States can counter malign Chinese and Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere , 2024
The Biden administration identified China and Russia as strategic competitors in its 2022 Nationa... more The Biden administration identified China and Russia as strategic competitors in its 2022 National Security Strategy, and this rivalry with malign state actors is on full display in the western hemisphere. For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia have been expanding their influence across the Americas via the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic domains. Now they are engaging in new areas to include emerging technologies, cyberspace, and outer space. These strategic competitors have been supporting autocratic regimes and threatening democracy, prosperity, and security in the region. The Chinese have aggressive investment and commercial projects underway to secure new markets and strategic resources to expand their global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since the Cold War, Russia has challenged US influence in the Americas by sponsoring like-minded regimes including Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua and fomenting unrest in democratic states. This article will examine PRC efforts to expand its economic footprint in the region in the emerging technologies and critical infrastructure arenas. It will also analyze Russian foreign influence operations in the cyber domain with disinformation campaigns intended to destabilize democratic governments allied with the United States. To counter growing Chinese and Russian influence in the cyber and emerging technologies domains in the region, the United States must adopt a more proactive stance by doubling down on constructive investment and commercial activities with partner nations, and educating the region on US engagements that contribute to economic growth and democracy, and discredit disinformation campaigns in the Americas.
Congressional Testimony, 2024
Congressional Testimony before the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight of the... more Congressional Testimony before the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight of the U.S. Senate Committee Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on March 20, 2024
Examination of how the U.S., China and Mexico are cooperating to curb illicit fentanyl flows into the United States and ways to address the global supply chain, drug demand and related money laundering.
Wilson Center Weekly Asado, 2023
The October 7 attack by Hamas against Israel killed 1,200 people, including 32 U.S. citizens, and... more The October 7 attack by Hamas against Israel killed 1,200 people, including 32 U.S. citizens, and renewed the global focus on radical Islamic terrorism. Those fears include the grim possibility that Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, could join the fight against Israel, draw in the United States, and carry out and inspire terrorist attacks in the United States and other regions, including Latin America.
Mexico and the United States by promoting original research, encouraging public discussion, and
Considering that Latin America presents itself as one of the most violent regions in the planet a... more Considering that Latin America presents itself as one of the most violent regions in the planet and that the increase of violence seems to be closely related to the advance of criminality, the present article tends to define as closely as possible, what organized crime is. It also seeks to analyze its manifestations in the region, with a major emphasis on the role of drug trafficking as an enhancer of other illicit activities. Finally, we work on a little-known dimension of criminality: the costs that their existence brings to the societies that suffer.
Este libro constituye un balance anual que recoge las perspectivas de tomadores de decisión, dipl... more Este libro constituye un balance anual que recoge las perspectivas de tomadores de decisión, diplomáticos, empresarios, representantes de gre¬mios empresariales, periodistas, representantes de organizacio¬nes no gubernamentales (ONG) y académicos, sobre las decisiones, las acciones y las estrategias que los gobiernos colombianos han tomado en materia de política exterior. Este volumen brinda un balance de la política exterior del gobierno Duque, en especial lo concer¬niente a las prioridades temáticas y las relaciones bilaterales y multilaterales de esta administración. Las cuestiones temáticas incluyen el manejo de la crisis regional suscitada por la masiva migración venezolana, la posición en torno al Acuerdo de Paz con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), la definición de las agendas de seguridad y defensa, ambiental y de inserción económica, y la defensa jurídica del Estado en el marco de los litigios con Nicaragua ante la Corte Internacional de Justicia. El a...
Congressional Testimony, 2023
Congressional Testimony: “China and the Mexican Cartels’ Asymmetrical War through the Illicit Fen... more Congressional Testimony: “China and the Mexican Cartels’ Asymmetrical War through the Illicit Fentanyl Trade” at a hearing on “Follow the Money: The CCP’s Business Model Fueling the Fentanyl Crisis” before the Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions of the Committee on Financial Services of the U.S. House of Representatives on March 23
Desafíos y Amenazas a la Seguridad en América Latina, 2022
Los flujos financieros ilícitos representan una amenaza para la seguridad y el desarrollo polític... more Los flujos financieros ilícitos representan una amenaza para la seguridad y el desarrollo político, económico y social de los países de todo el mundo, particularmente en las Américas. El dinero procedente de actividades ilegales, también llamado dinero negro o dinero sucio, sirve como elemento vital para las redes ilícitas que incluyen a terroristas, delincuentes, traficantes y colaboradores, proporcionando una ventana y un punto de entrada vulnerable a estas organizaciones subrepticias. El lavado de dinero y el financiamiento del terrorismo permiten que los grupos terroristas y las organizaciones criminales transnacionales lleven a cabo sus operaciones y promuevan sus perversas agendas, contribuyendo a altos niveles de inseguridad y violencia en toda América Latina. Los grupos armados en las Américas se han vuelto cada vez más poderosos y ricos, socavando las economías legítimas y las instituciones democráticas. Durante los últimos 20 años, los gobiernos han empleado cada vez más el “seguimiento del rastro del dinero” para comprender, detectar, interrumpir y contrarrestar de mejor manera las redes ilícitas, debiendo mantenerse al tanto de la evolución de los métodos de financiación de las amenazas para combatir las redes criminales y terroristas, incluyendo sus flujos financieros ilícitos, así como para promover la seguridad, la prosperidad y el buen gobierno en las Américas.
Corruption and Institutionalization in America, edited by Mariano César Bartolomé, Marcio Adriano Anselmo and Marcio Borges Ferreira, 83-104. Washington,DC: Inter-American Defense College,, 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the post-World War II political, economic, social and internati... more The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the post-World War II political, economic, social and international order with many questioning whether our current democratic and economic institutions are suitable for and capable of recovering from this profound health, economic and governance crisis. While democracies and open economies were hard hit by the pandemic, illicit networks including transnational criminal groups, terrorist organizations and their facilitators have proven more resilient, expanding their activities and influence in the Americas. This article will examine the impact COVID-19 has had on the health, economy, democracy, security of the region and on illicit networks. The article will conclude with recommendations on how nations incorporate strategic foresight and anticipatory governance to safeguard their sovereignty and counter to the growing threats from corruption and illicit networks in the new world order.
Key Words: Illicit Networks, Transnational Organized Crime, Corruption, COVID-19 Pandemic, Strategic Foresight, Anticipatory Governance
Dialogo Digital Military Magazine, 2022
During the COVID-19 pandemic, life as we knew it changed dramatically as activities, both licit a... more During the COVID-19 pandemic, life as we knew it changed dramatically as activities, both licit and illicit, moved to the virtual world. We witnessed shopping, college classes, diplomatic meetings, financial transactions, and organized crime activities transition online almost overnight. The pandemic has empowered transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) to establish new virtual markets for their drug, human, arms, and contraband trafficking and money laundering with cryptocurrencies.
In 2021, cryptocurrencies have gone mainstream with more consumers using them to pay for goods and services and investing millions into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and other virtual currencies that reached a total market capitalization of about $2.2 trillion in September. A cryptocurrency is a medium of exchange that is digital, encrypted, decentralized, and unregulated in contrast to the U.S. dollar or the euro. Even governments themselves are exploring the possible issuance of central bank digital currencies or digital cash. The Venezuelan regime issued its own cryptocurrency, the petro, in 2018 purportedly backed by the country’s oil and mineral reserves, and El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021.
Hearing on “The $150 Billion Drug Market: A Dive into the Economics of Cartels”, 2022
Thank you Chairman Whitehouse and Co-Chairman Grassley and members of the Senate Caucus on Intern... more Thank you Chairman Whitehouse and Co-Chairman Grassley and members of the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control for the opportunity to testify today on countering the evolving drug trade and the digitalization of illicit networks in the Americas. During the pandemic, transnational criminal organizations, such as the Mexican cartels, have quickly adapted to a changing environment and leveraged cyberspace to empower and enrich themselves. This testimony will examine the transforming drug market, the U.S. opioid epidemic, the role of the cyber domain as a force multiplier for drug trafficking and money laundering and recommend measures to counter the illicit economy.
“The Need to Deepen U.S.-Colombian Bilateral Cooperation” at a SFRC Hearing on “Reinvigorating U.S.-Colombia Relations” before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 2022
Colombia is one of the closest partners of the U.S. in Latin America, sharing democratic values, ... more Colombia is one of the closest partners of the U.S. in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-market capitalism, and mutual security interests. Colombia is facing a triple crisis of mass social protests, increased insecurity and serious fiscal and economic challenges from the pandemic. These internal crises along with external actors like Venezuela, China and Russia and an expanding illicit economy are destabilizing the political, economic, social, and security aspects of Colombia ahead of their presidential elections. The U.S. must redouble its efforts to strengthen its partnership with Colombia to assist the country confront the formidable challenges to security, democracy and post-pandemic economic fallout and realize free and fair elections this year.
American Foreign Policy Council Defense Dossier, Issue 32, 2021
The U.S. and Mexico are facing an increasing convergence of transnational threats from narcotics ... more The U.S. and Mexico are facing an increasing convergence of transnational threats from narcotics trafficking and irregular migration affecting the security and prosperity of North American neighbors. U.S.-Mexican security cooperation under President Joe Biden and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) remains a formidable challenge due to competing priorities and significant levels of mistrust. These cross-border tensions come at a critical time as violence and homicide rates in Mexico remain close to historic highs. Unprecedented flows of narcotics and irregular migrants are expected to continue if not intensify as the border reopens to trade and travel and the economy recovers from the pandemic. Recent senior-level U.S.-Mexican engagements like the North American Leaders’ Summit and the Bi-Centennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities could serve as opportunities to revitalize important collaboration between the U.S. and Mexico to confront these transnational security threats.
America’s Longtime Friend, Colombia, Needs U.S. Help, 2021
Colombia is one of the U.S.’s closest partners in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-... more Colombia is one of the U.S.’s closest partners in Latin America, sharing democratic values, free-market capitalism, and mutual security interests. The U.S. is Colombia’s largest trade and investment partner, thanks to the U.S.–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Through “Plan Colombia,” the U.S. and Colombia have built a strong counterterrorism and counter-narcotics partnership to combat the cocaine trade and armed groups like FARC. Colombia has been generous in welcoming over 1.8 million Venezuelans fleeing the Maduro regime and providing assistance to its Latin American neighbors. As Colombia faces increased instability, the U.S. must stand by its trusted ally and its democratically elected government under Iván Duque to ensure continued security and prosperity in Colombia and across the region.
Law and justice/Criminal justice; Military/Military roles; Politics and government/International ... more Law and justice/Criminal justice; Military/Military roles; Politics and government/International relations
Prism: A Journal of the Center for Complex Operations, 2019
For decades, cocaine was the narcotic of choice in the United States. For decades it drove the so... more For decades, cocaine was the narcotic of choice in the United States. For decades it drove the so-called “war on drugs” against Colombian and Mexican drug cartels, depicted in films like “Clear and Present Danger” and more recently in the popular Netflix series “Narcos.” Narcotics consumption in the United States, however, has recently shifted from cocaine to opioids like heroin and, increasingly, from plant-based to synthetic drugs like methamphetamines and fentanyl. Heroin use has spread into suburban and rural communities and is growing among most socioeconomic classes, age groups, and races. Potent synthetic opioids like fentanyl have become mixed into black-market supplies of heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine and are fueling a high-mortality rate, and compounding the crisis. Unfortunately, U.S. military veterans, many of whom suffer from chronic pain as a result of their service, are twice as likely as the average American to die from a drug overdose involving an opioid. This crisis is adversely impacting public health, social welfare, the economy, and the national security of the United States. Canada and Mexico are similarly experiencing increased opioid trafficking, use, and addiction. This article will describe the evolution of the opioid trade and epidemic, examine current policies that address supply and demand reduction in the United States and abroad, and advocate the urgent need for more prevention, treatment, and interdiction efforts through interagency, inter-sectorial, and international collaboration.
The age of globalization has afforded us greater access to goods, services, financing, and inform... more The age of globalization has afforded us greater access to goods, services, financing, and information -‐ faster, better, and cheaper⎯from an increasingly interconnected economy. The breakdown of commercial barriers has lifted millions from poverty and promoted the free movement of labor, capital, technology, and ideas around the world. Alongside all this unprecedented progress, we have witnessed a dark side of globalization that has empowered illicit networks including terrorists, criminals and proliferators that threatens security and prosperity. The global trafficking of drugs, arms, people, and counterfeit goods, and the money laundering that accompany these illicit activities, compromise the safety and soundness of consumers, rob inventors of their intellectual property, and deny significant tax revenues used to support nations. Governments have been engaged in combating illicit trafficking since the age of the ancient Greeks and Romans; what is different today is that the dr...
Bitácora de política exterior colombiana: Balance de la política exterior de Iván Duque y horizontes para el gobierno Petro, 2023
El presidente Iván Duque Márquez hizo de la defensa y la seguridad una pieza central de su admini... more El presidente Iván Duque Márquez hizo de la defensa y la seguridad una pieza central de su administración, a fin de abordar un amplio espectro de amenazas a la seguridad na- cional colombiana. Se embarcó en un programa ambicioso con su Política de Defensa y Seguridad para la Legalidad, el Emprendimiento y la Equidad, de febrero del 2019, para contrarrestar las amenazas del crimen organizado, los grupos armados, el narcotráfico, las economías ilícitas, la degradación ambiental y los actores externos, incluida Venezuela. La nueva política adoptó un enfoque de gobierno integral mediante una acción unificada, coordinada, interagencial, sostenida e integral del Estado. Esta política tuvo resultados mixtos y debe evaluarse considerando cómo Colombia aprovechó sus instituciones, sus mecanismos, la asignación de recursos y las medidas de efectividad de defensa y seguridad durante la administración Duque.
La Transformación de las Fuerzas Armadas en América Latina ante el Crimen Organizado, 2019
A medida que la delincuencia organizada transnacional representa cada vez más una amenaza a la se... more A medida que la delincuencia organizada transnacional representa cada vez más una amenaza a la seguridad nacional en todo el hemisferio occidental, los gobiernos están reexaminando los roles y responsabilidades de sus fuerzas de seguridad, tanto militares como policiales, para garantizar el bienestar, la seguridad, la prosperidad y la soberanía de sus países. Hay un debate importante en las Américas sobre el empleo apropiado de los militares para contrarrestar el crimen organizado transnacional donde las fuerzas policiales se han visto incompetentes, como en Brasil y México. En los Estados Unidos, hay una línea clara definida entre las fuerzas armadas y la policía que asigna solo un papel de apoyo a las fuerzas militares para combatir el crimen organizado transnacional y el tráfico de narcóticos. Las agencias de la fuerza pública en los EE. UU. tienen la iniciativa para combatir el tráfico de estupefacientes y colaboran estrechamente con todo el gobierno, incluyendo las fuerzas militares, para cumplir esta misión.
La Transformación de las Fuerzas Armadas en América Latina ante el Crimen Organizado, 2019
A medida que la delincuencia organizada transnacional representa cada vez más una amenaza a la se... more A medida que la delincuencia organizada transnacional representa cada vez más una amenaza a la seguridad nacional en todo el hemisferio occidental, los gobiernos están reexaminando los roles y responsabilidades de sus fuerzas de seguridad, tanto militares como policiales, para garantizar el bienestar, la seguridad, la prosperidad y la soberanía de sus países. Hay un debate importante en las Américas sobre el empleo apropiado de los militares para contrarrestar el crimen organizado transnacional donde las fuerzas policiales se han visto incompetentes, como en Brasil y México. En los Estados Unidos, hay una línea clara definida entre las fuerzas armadas y la policía que asigna solo un papel de apoyo a las fuerzas militares para combatir el crimen organizado transnacional y el tráfico de narcóticos. Las agencias de la fuerza pública en los EE. UU. tienen la iniciativa para combatir el tráfico de estupefacientes y colaboran estrechamente con todo el gobierno, incluyendo las fuerzas militares, para cumplir esta misión.
El presente trabajo invita a observar y a entender tanto los factores estructurales que han posib... more El presente trabajo invita a observar y a entender tanto los factores estructurales que han posibilitado el desarrollo y avance del crimen organizado, como las especificidades de cada una de sus manifestaciones presentes en la región, y las respuestas ensayadas por los Estados para combatir este flagelo. En estas paginas se pueden encontrar las claves necesarias para realizar un diagnostico acabado del crimen organizado en América Latina, que permita desarrollar políticas públicas tendientes a hacerles frente de manera efectiva
Acceso gratuito : https://iugm.es/publicaciones/colecciones/libros-investigacion/?id=4280 El pre... more Acceso gratuito :
https://iugm.es/publicaciones/colecciones/libros-investigacion/?id=4280
El presente trabajo invita a observar y a entender tanto los factores estructurales que han posibilitado el desarrollo y avance del crimen organizado, como las especificidades de cada una de sus manifestaciones presentes en la región, y las respuestas ensayadas por los Estados para combatir este flagelo.
En estas paginas se pueden encontrar las claves necesarias para realizar un diagnostico acabado del crimen organizado en América Latina, que permita desarrollar politicas públicas tendientes a hacerles frente de manera efectiva.
Brújula Hemisférica: Desarrollo de capacidades prospectivas y estudios de futuros para las decisiones en seguridad de América Latina, 2024
Desde la caída del Muro de Berlín, la globalización ha hecho que el mundo se encuentre más in... more Desde la caída del Muro de Berlín, la globalización ha hecho que el mundo se encuentre más interconectado e interdependiente, creando un crecimiento económico sin precedentes, disminuyendo la pobreza y promoviendo la democracia en todo el mundo. Los avances tecnológicos, las telecomunicaciones, el libre comercio, el acceso a los mercados de capitales y una fuerza laboral talentosa han contribuido al progreso de un mundo globalizado. Más recientemente, la pandemia de COVID-19 ha ilustrado las vulnerabilidades de la globalización. Debido a los viajes por el mundo y la transmisibilidad del virus, la COVID-19 ha infectado y afectado todos los rincones del mundo, provocando una crisis de salud histórica no vista desde la influenza española hace un siglo. La pandemia ha tenido un efecto multifacético en nuestras sociedades mucho más allá de las implicaciones para la salud y el bienestar. Ha trastocado el orden político, económico, social e internacional posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial y muchos se preguntan si nuestras instituciones democráticas y económicas actuales son capaces de recuperarse de esta profunda crisis de salud, económica y de gobernanza.
Las democracias y las economías abiertas se han visto duramente afectadas por la pandemia, las redes ilícitas, incluidos los grupos criminales transnacionales, las organizaciones terroristas y sus facilitadores, han demostrado ser más resistentes y ágiles, y han ampliado sus actividades e influencia en las Américas. Este artículo examinará el impacto que la COVID-19 ha tenido en la salud, la economía, la democracia y la seguridad de la región. Luego analizará cómo las redes criminales transnacionales se han adaptado al nuevo entorno pandémico, y cómo presentan amenazas crecientes para América Latina y el Caribe. El artículo concluirá con una explicación del nuevo orden mundial que emerge de la pandemia y recomendará cómo la previsión estratégica y la gobernanza anticipatoria pueden ayudar a las naciones a salvaguardar su soberanía y contrarrestar las crecientes amenazas de las redes ilícitas en este nuevo orden mundial.
Lavado de Dinero y Financiamiento al Terrorismo: Prevención y Combate,, 2021
This year we commemorate 20 years since the tragic September 11, 2001 attacks that opened the wor... more This year we commemorate 20 years since the tragic September 11, 2001 attacks that opened the world’s eyes to international terrorism and launched the counterterrorism financing discipline. Nations have increasingly employed “following the money trail” to better understand, detect, disrupt, and counter terrorist networks over the past 20 years. While illicit networks, that include terrorists, criminals, traffickers and their facilitators are enabled by multiple factors, financing is essential for all their activities. Financial resources sustain these entities and provide a window and a vulnerable entry point into these illicit organizations.
While terrorist financing and money laundering may have different objectives, they share similar tactics that abuse international financial systems. Through money laundering, criminals try to disguise the proceeds, sources, or nature of their illicit activities. Terrorist financing refers to the processing of funds to sponsor or facilitate terrorist activity that could include clean and dirty funding. Methods of money laundering and terrorist financing include: the banking system, cash couriers, bulk cash smuggling, money services businesses, alternative remittance systems (hawalas), store of value cards, trade-based money laundering, mobile or internet payments, cryptocurrencies, non-profit organizations, donors, and front companies. Strategies to counter money laundering and terrorist financing consists of three lines of action:
Intelligence and law enforcement operations against terrorist financiers and money launderers;
Public designations of terrorists or traffickers, sanctions, asset freezes and seizures; and
Domestic and international training and capacity building in the counter-threat finance discipline for the public and private sectors.
Military and law enforcement operations against terrorists and their financiers, sanctions against terrorist groups, and the seizure or destruction of their assets have become particularly effective. Tracking how terrorists and criminals raise, move, store and use money has been instrumental in degrading groups such as Al Qaeda, the FARC in Colombia, and ISIS. To combat and prevent terrorism, the counterterrorism community must collaborate and employ all the instruments of national power (military, diplomatic, intelligence and economic) to dismantle, degrade, disrupt and deter terror networks. Such countermeasures have been successfully leveraged at the local, national, and international levels to combat and degrade illicit networks around the globe; however, these must be continually revamped to keep up with the resourcefulness of illicit actors to adapt to and circumvent our countermeasures.
This chapter will provide an overview of the nature of terrorist financing, the funding mechanisms for terrorist groups, and measures to combat and prevent terrorist financing. It will demonstrate how “following the money” trail enhances law enforcement investigations and intelligence analysis to root out terrorist groups and their financiers.
En: Transformacion Fuerzas Armadas America Latina crimen organizado., 2019
Tradicionalmente, la política de Chile ha mantenido una taxativa división entre la defensa nacion... more Tradicionalmente, la política de Chile ha mantenido una taxativa división entre la defensa nacional, entendida como la defensa territorial del Estado frente a amenazas exteriores, principalmente de otros Estados, y la seguridad interior. Sin embargo, en la última década, es posible constatar una evolución en la forma de concebir el empleo de las Fuerzas Armadas (FAS) ante los desafíos y amenazas del nuevo siglo, como el terrorismo o el crimen organizado, adaptando sus capacidades de prevención y coerción para operar eficazmente en entornos menos tradicionales, pero igualmente importantes para la seguridad estatal y que hasta ahora han sido desempeñados por las Fuerzas de Orden y Seguridad. Desde su nacimiento, en 1604, las Fuerzas Armadas de Chile han experimentado una evolutiva modernización de sus capacidades y doctrina para adaptarse a los acontecimientos y cumplir con las nuevas tareas que se le atribuyen. El proceso de transformación de las FAS chilenas responde, por tanto, a la necesidad de modernizar y optimizar los recursos en el complejo escenario actual.