Francois Gemenne | Université de Liège (original) (raw)

Papers by Francois Gemenne

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

Research on the impacts of COVID-19 on mobility has focused primarily on the increased health vul... more Research on the impacts of COVID-19 on mobility has focused primarily on the increased health vulnerabilities of involuntary migrant and displaced populations. But virtually all migration flows have been truncated and altered because of reduced economic and mobility opportunities of migrants. Here we use a well-established framework of migration decision-making, whereby individual decisions combine the aspiration and ability to migrate, to explain how public responses to the COVID-19 pandemic alter migration patterns among urban populations across the world. The principal responses to COVID-19 pandemic that affected migration are: 1) through travel restrictions and border closures, 2) by affecting abilities to move through economic and other means, and 3) by affecting aspirations to move. Using in-depth qualitative data collected in six cities in four continents (Accra, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dhaka, Maputo, and Worcester), we explore how populations with diverse levels of education an...

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), 2015

$Research paper thumbnail of Defining \u27environmental migration\u27$

There is currently no consensus on definitions in this field of study. The resulting variety of t... more There is currently no consensus on definitions in this field of study. The resulting variety of terms is not just confusing but unhelpful

Massive population displacements are now regularly forecasted as one of the most dramatic possibl... more Massive population displacements are now regularly forecasted as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies, such as the EACH-FOR project (www.each-for.eu), have shown that environmental factors were increasingly important drivers of migration movements, both forced and voluntary. The dominant perspective on the issue, however, is rooted in environmental determinism: migration is conceived as a threat to human security, the only choice left when all other adaptation strategies have failed. Environmental 'refugees' are depicted as the expiatory victims of climate change, subjects of a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. Empirical studies, however, reveal a different picture, where migration becomes an adaptation strategy for those who are affected by the impacts of climate change. Yet mobility often remains a luxury, unavailable for those who cannot afford to migrate. Hence the most vulnerable are often stuck in places heavi...

Problémom environmentálnej migrácie sa začína zaoberať rastúci počet akademikov i tvorcov politík... more Problémom environmentálnej migrácie sa začína zaoberať rastúci počet akademikov i tvorcov politík na celom svete. Degradácia životného prostredia nie je zvyčajne jediným dôvodom, pre ktorý ľudia migrujú, ale ide ruka v ruke s ďalšími politickými a socioekonomickými faktormi. V marci 2016 sa vyostril konflikt medzi komunitami Lobi farmárov a Fulani pastierov z Burkina Faso, ktorí sa usídlili v regióne Bouna na severovýchode Pobrežia slonoviny po tom, čo opustili Burkina Faso počas veľkého sucha v 70. rokoch predošlého storočia. Tento konflikt, ktorý začal, ako sa zdá, banálne-pošliapaním Lobi farmárskych polí dobytkom Fulani pastierov, mal vážne dôsledky: obete na životoch, viacero ranených, zničený majetok a ekonomické straty. Konflikt nakoniec viedol k presídleniu niekoľko tisíc ľudí do provincie Noumbiel v Burkina Faso. Analýza príčin tohto masívneho presídlenia poukazuje na rastúci lokálny dopyt po prírodných zdrojoch a na manažment poľnohospodárskej pôdy, čo sa vyostrilo na poza...

Perception of climate change and intention to migrate in Burkina Faso. This study aims to compare... more Perception of climate change and intention to migrate in Burkina Faso. This study aims to compare changes in rainfall perceived by people from different regions of Burkina Faso during the 1998-2008 period with observed trends and to assess the importance of migration as an adaptation strategies to rainfall changes. We used data from surveys conducted with nearly 400 households and daily in situ observations. The perception of a rainfall decrease has not been confirmed by observations. Over 40% of the respondents plan to migrate, either temporarily or permanently, if the rainfall conditions are deteriorating in future. Migration should increase in this region, probably before significant rainfall changes, which will require new policy responses in the future.

Forced migration review, 2020

representatives is one of the key aspects of the citywide approach. However, the government repre... more representatives is one of the key aspects of the citywide approach. However, the government representatives of Bangladesh are, in general, more willing to collaborate on direct development (cash support/ infrastructure development and so on) than to collaborate on social development (for example, capacity building and awareness raising in the community) or institutional development (such as building local government capacity). There is thus an urgent need to build awareness among government representatives and serviceproviding agencies of the importance of social and institutional development.

Though environmental degradations appear today as a major driver of migration flows, the debate a... more Though environmental degradations appear today as a major driver of migration flows, the debate about the definition of the relationship between the environment and migration remains animated. In public debates, there are many terms to qualify those who have to migrate because of environmental disruptions. This has led to controversies surrounding the use of these different terms. This paper attempts to document this controversy through a study of the different uses of these terms in public debates online. In order to do so, we have used a new digital method that has allowed us, thanks to a search on Google.com, to collect webpages where the discussion on the different definitions of these migrations was most visible. Building on an analysis of the expressions contained in these webpages, we have generated semantic maps that show which terms are associated with each other: in particular, which actors, places, and concepts, were connected to the most frequent terms. These maps reflec...

IOM moves 110 families to "transitional shelter", a temporary house designed to last for three to... more IOM moves 110 families to "transitional shelter", a temporary house designed to last for three to five years, in Corail, outside of Port-au-Prince, after tents were damaged or flooded by a storm, following the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Journal of International Relations, 2018

The issue of environmental migration starts to involve growing number of scholars and policymaker... more The issue of environmental migration starts to involve growing number of scholars and policymakers all around the world. Conventionally, environmental degradation is not a sole reason that drives people to move but rather it goes hand-in-hand with other political and socio-economic factors. In March 2016, an inter-communal conflict arose between Lobi farmers and Burkinabe Fulani herders who had settled in Bouna department in the north-east of Ivory Coast after leaving Burkina Faso following the great drought in 1970s. This conflict that appears to be born along a banal fact of pillaging the Lobi farmers' fields by the cattle of Burkinabe Fulani herders had serious consequences: numerous injuries, several casualties, capital destruction, and economic losses. Eventually, the conflict led to displacement of few thousand people to the province of Noumbiel in Burkina Faso. The analysis of the roots of this massive displacement points to the growing local demand for natural resources ...

From the Sahel to the coastal zone, West Africa is experiencing a variety of environmental change... more From the Sahel to the coastal zone, West Africa is experiencing a variety of environmental changes resulting from both slow processes and sudden shocks. These changes significantly influence migration patterns of populations within and outside of West Africa. In this region, where natural resources are the basis of livelihoods and food security, the relationship between environmental change and socio-economic vulnerability is of particular concern. Environmental degradation impacts the vulnerability of populations and their resiliency in complex ways. The presence of environmental and climatic stresses varies geographically. While desertification and drought are of primary importance for some areas, flooding, coastal erosion, and rising sea levels are the main dangers for others. Within the same population affected by the same climate threats, vulnerability and the likelihood of migration are influenced by socio-economic status, dependence on natural resources, and demographic chara...

We make the following recommendations for the area south of latitude 60°S: 10. Australia and Fran... more We make the following recommendations for the area south of latitude 60°S: 10. Australia and France should continue to cooperate in delivering reliable surveillance, compliance and enforcement in the Southern Ocean. 11. They should continue to promote multilateral cooperation on sustainable uses of the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. 12. They should cooperate on SAR planning and work with other countries in the region to foster effective SAR responses. 13. They should facilitate a regular multilateral SAR exercise in the future around the HIMI and Kerguelen Islands area, in the Southern Ocean and on the Antarctic continent. 14. They should jointly examine the management implications of climate change in the Antarctic region, looking at future Antarctic infrastructure, logistics, environmental management, the terrestrial environment, the marine environment and resources. 15. As a trust-building measure for Antarctic countries, Australia and France should lead on identifying guidelines for establishing and reinforcing the resilience of Antarctic infrastructure that take current and predicted climate changes into account. 16. Australia and France should set an example by including more specialists on climate change in delegations to key Antarctic Treaty and Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) meetings. 17. There should be more active inspections under the Antarctic Treaty, including joint inspections where practical. 18. Australia and France should be working to advance cooperation in East Antarctic science and logistics, including through pooling their resources. 19. They should promote cooperation on environmental and resource protection among Antarctic Treaty parties. 20. They should continue to cooperate on scientific research, such as the recent symposium on the Kerguelen Plateau convened by the Australian Antarctic Division of the Department of the Environment and Energy. 21. They should play an active role in having CCAMLR and Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings cooperate with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in understanding the impacts of climate change on the objectives of CCAMLR and the Antarctic Treaty. 22. They should consider organising a joint logistics exercise with a focus on environmental management. 23. They should convene events during climate change conferences to highlight the risks and challenges identified in this report. COP 25 in Chile could be a suitable venue. 24. On the basis of this report, Australia and France should identify challenges and issues that warrant further research and cooperation.

This volume is the eight in the annual series and the third of its kind published with the Presse... more This volume is the eight in the annual series and the third of its kind published with the Presses Universitaires de Liège. The State of Environmental Migration aims to provide its readership with the most updated assessments on recent events and evolving dynamics of environmental migration throughout the world. Each year, the editors select the best graduate student work from the course “Environment and Migration”, taught by François Gemenne and Caroline Zickgraf at the Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA) of Sciences Po. Presented in this edition are displacements induced by some of the most dramatic disaster events of 2017, including Hurricane Irma and Cyclone Enawo, as well as analyses of migration flows related to a variety of environmental occurrences throughout the year spanning the globe. SEM 2018 thus represents another stepping stone towards understanding how the adverse effects of climate change and disasters alter migration patterns.

Climatic Change, 2020

Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the West African populations could be severely impacte... more Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the West African populations could be severely impacted by climate change and variability. In this paper, we performed a literature review relating to perceptions of climate change and variability in West Africa, followed by an indepth comparison between perceptions by rural dwellers of Burkina Faso and trends in meteorological data to discuss the importance of perceptions vis-à-vis climate trends in migration decision. Results showed that respondents perceived increasing temperature and worsening rainfall conditions over 1988-2007 matching with findings of previous studies but inconsistent with the trends observed in rainfall data. Given that climate change is recognized as a key driver of mobility on the one hand and the fact that climate change perceptions influence decision to migrate on the other hand, our results suggest to jointly include perceptions and climate data in future research on environmental migration in order to improve the understanding of household's decision in response to climate change.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 2018

S o ci oe co no mic and polit ica l co n te x t Pla netary healt h Climate change Food yields and... more S o ci oe co no mic and polit ica l co n te x t Pla netary healt h Climate change Food yields and availability, water availability, extreme weather events, land availability Migration Population movement; voluntary or forced displacement

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017

SignificanceA major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to ... more SignificanceA major uncertainty concerning the 21st century climate is the ice sheet response to global warming. Paleodata indicate rapid ice sheet destabilizations during the last deglaciation, which could lead to an underestimation of sea level rise, as suggested in recent publications. Therefore, we explore the impact of different scenarios of Greenland partial melting in the very sensitive Sahel region. We first demonstrate that such a melting induces a drastic decrease of West African monsoon precipitation. Moreover, we quantify the agricultural area losses due to monsoon changes. Consequently, we pinpoint a large potential for migration of millions of people in the coming decades. Thus, the ice sheet destabilization provokes not only coastal damages but also large population migration in monsoon area.

The Geographical Journal, 2017

Migration continues to be pictured in public debates as a failure to adapt to changes, while poli... more Migration continues to be pictured in public debates as a failure to adapt to changes, while policymakers explore adaptation measures as a means to reduce migration pressures, and scholars have contended that migration processes exist within a larger framework of strategies for adapting to damaging climate change impacts. So what are the impacts of migration on the adaptive capacities and vulnerabilities of the origin and host communities, as well as of the migrants themselves? The objective of this conceptual and methodological paper is to identify possible different options for research into the consequences of migration for adaptation. The first section reviews how the migration-adaptation nexus has been addressed in the literature, confirming the potential of human mobility to build resilience and to increase adaptive capacities within complex and potentially maladaptive processes. The next section explores the potential impacts of migration that need to be studied, from three main vantage points: the migrants themselves, the community of origin, and the community of destination. A final section weighs the possible approaches and suggests solutions that may exist to advance empirical study of the migration-adaptation area nexus, so that it can address not just the causes, but also the consequences of migration in the context of environmental changes.

Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2017

Scientists argue that climate change may be the greatest global health threat of the 21st century... more Scientists argue that climate change may be the greatest global health threat of the 21st century. In recent years, it has been also identified by the global health community as a great opportunity to improve health. Much of the policy development in climate change is coming from international consensus built by the 195 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 21st Conference of the Parties in Paris represented an important step to protect and promote health in the face of climate change as for the first time "the right to health" was recognized. This opinion article outlines the influence of health concerns in the scientific and policy debate on climate change There has been an increasing emphasis on climate change impacts on human health fostering collaborations of scientists coming from different disciplines. A growing number of successful examples of global health advocacy for policy change have identified the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite these substantial progresses, significant hurdles remain: climate change and health has been under-researched in comparison to other topics and sectors and there are still few cases where climate change is brought into national public health development processes.