Luc Savard | Université de Sherbrooke (University of Sherbrooke) (original) (raw)
Papers by Luc Savard
Social Science Research Network, 2011
Social Science Research Network, 2003
This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a microhousehold model (micro-simul... more This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a microhousehold model (micro-simulation) to generate a convergent solution, thus providing the basis to perform counterfactual analysis of trade and fiscal policies, and their impact on poverty. In recent years, a number of papers have presented different approaches using CGE models to analyze poverty. Among them, the standard CGE models, which generates changes in the income of representative households in order to allow poverty analysis, albeit with no intra-group changes in the distribution; CGE models with high levels of household disaggregation (3200) and the microsimulation approach to modeling (with no feedback effect to the CGE model). In this paper, we provide an alternative to these methods that allows a richer microhousehold modeling than the first two approaches, while keeping the properties of standard CGE (feedback effect of household behavior) which is usually simplified in micro-simulation context. We also introduce segmented labor markets, with waiting unemployment, inspired by Magnac (1991), which provides a basic for important changes in household income (i.e. when a worker leaves unemployment or becomes unemployed). Global and decomposable poverty analysis and income distribution indicators are computed at base year and after a 50% reduction in trade.
Cahiers de recherche, 2015
This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a micro-household model (micro-simu... more This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a micro-household model (micro-simulation) to generate a convergent solution, thus providing the basis to perform counterfactual analysis of trade and fiscal policies and their impact on poverty. In recent years, a number of papers have presented different approaches using CGE models to analyze poverty. Among them, the standard CGE models, which generates changes in the income of representative households in order to allow poverty analysis, albeit with no intra-group changes in the distribution; CGE models with high levels of household desegregation (3200) and the micro-simulation approach to modeling (with no feedback effect to the CGE model). In this paper, we provide an alternative to these methods that allows for richer microhousehold modeling then the first two approaches while keeping the properties of standard CGE (feedback effect of household behavior) which is usually simplified in micro-simulation context. We also introduce segmented labor markets with waiting unemployment inspired by Magnac (1991), which provides a basis for important changes in household income (i.e. when a worker leaves unemployment or becomes unemployed). Global and decomposable poverty analysis and income distribution indicators are computed at base year and after a 50% reduction in trade.
Journal of African Economies, May 1, 2023
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2011
A significant amount of pro-poor growth research has emerged in the context of the millennium dev... more A significant amount of pro-poor growth research has emerged in the context of the millennium development goals and poverty reduction strategies over the last fifteen years. Most of this research focuses on impact analysis of reforms applied in situations of partial equilibriums. Moreover, previous research rarely attempted to analyze policy coherence in this context. In this paper, we will deal with these issues in a macro/micro computable general equilibrium model. We applied our model to the Philippines and generated growth through endogenous labor supply and public expenditure externalities. The mixed results of our reforms simulations illustrate the importance of considering national specificities and contexts when implementing policy reforms.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2015
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jul 6, 2011
The existing relation between the increase in public revenues and the establishment of effective ... more The existing relation between the increase in public revenues and the establishment of effective anti-poverty programs is not always confirmed in the short term as studied by Filmer and al. (1998) and Gauthier (2007). With this observation and in a national and international context of poverty fighting, it is important to assess the social impacts of fiscal reform and to know whether reinforcing public revenues might hamper efforts made to reduce poverty. This enables the hypothesis that the social objectives of the country should be taken into account right from the definition of the characteristics of public tax collection. In order to have the public resources necessary for its development, Niger is examining the possibility of expanding its VAT tax base to exempted goods and basic food products. This proposition has prompted violent opposition. In this context, we have to analyze the impact of the end of exemptions and define in what way a VAT structure could support the poor. The first micro-macro computable general equilibrium model of Niger's actual economy has been developed to shows the net social impacts of the end of exemption. This model allows analysis of the social impact and distributional of the following VAT structures: a pure VAT structure, a structure maintaining certain exemptions, and a multiple-rate VAT structure. To take into account household heterogeneity of household, a micro-simulation model is associated with the CGE model (Decaluwe, 1999 ou Savard, 2005). The principle of “Equal Yield Tax Analysis ” (Shoven and al., 1990) is made for the simulations. It aims to compare various taxation schemes while keeping constant the public expenditure and the State revenue. This analytical approach is fitted to capture the intrinsic incidence of alternative tax scenarios by isolating them from induced effects which may be related to the change in the State revenue, the State expenditures and savings. The model has been run firstly with perfect competition hypothesis and secondly with various market structure. The model’s results shows that although restoring the VAT rate would be socially costly compared to the initial situation, the distributional impact of the VAT differs according to the system implemented in the country. Maintaining VAT exemptions in food crop agriculture sectors associated with a tax base expansion in the remaining sectors will increase public revenue while taking into account the national goal of poverty reduction. The net social impact of exoneration depends on the economic structure of the concerned sector. If the national goal is the end of exemption, the model shows that applying a pure VAT conforming to the theory is preferable in terms of economic growth whereas applying a reduced-rate on food crop agriculture lightens the social impact of the end of exemptions compared to a single rate.
Cahiers de recherche, 2010
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2008
In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies env... more In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gaz emissions. The implementation of these policies usually aim at reducing greenhouse gases directly or indirectly. However, these policies can also produce important changes in factor allocation, relative prices in specific countries as well as on world markets when these policies are adopted by a large number of countries. The changes in welfare can be important for vulnerable groups of population in developing countries. This survey reviews the evidence on the incidence of these policies. In the process, it shows that the computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation approach has not been fully exploited in the context of distributional impact analysis of CC policies..
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2007
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 11, 2009
The World Bank eBooks, Aug 23, 2010
Economic Modelling, Sep 1, 2016
Cahiers de recherche, 2009
Social Science Research Network, 2015
iv Senegal’s experience with water reform 3 Basic statistical analysis of the reform effects 4 A ... more iv Senegal’s experience with water reform 3 Basic statistical analysis of the reform effects 4 A computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of water utility reforms 7 Who should care about pricing and transfer reforms? 10 The impact of funding schemes on income distribution 15 Conclusion 16 References 18 Appendix 21
Social Science Research Network, 2011
Social Science Research Network, 2003
This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a microhousehold model (micro-simul... more This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a microhousehold model (micro-simulation) to generate a convergent solution, thus providing the basis to perform counterfactual analysis of trade and fiscal policies, and their impact on poverty. In recent years, a number of papers have presented different approaches using CGE models to analyze poverty. Among them, the standard CGE models, which generates changes in the income of representative households in order to allow poverty analysis, albeit with no intra-group changes in the distribution; CGE models with high levels of household disaggregation (3200) and the microsimulation approach to modeling (with no feedback effect to the CGE model). In this paper, we provide an alternative to these methods that allows a richer microhousehold modeling than the first two approaches, while keeping the properties of standard CGE (feedback effect of household behavior) which is usually simplified in micro-simulation context. We also introduce segmented labor markets, with waiting unemployment, inspired by Magnac (1991), which provides a basic for important changes in household income (i.e. when a worker leaves unemployment or becomes unemployed). Global and decomposable poverty analysis and income distribution indicators are computed at base year and after a 50% reduction in trade.
Cahiers de recherche, 2015
This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a micro-household model (micro-simu... more This paper highlights the idea of combining CGE modeling with a micro-household model (micro-simulation) to generate a convergent solution, thus providing the basis to perform counterfactual analysis of trade and fiscal policies and their impact on poverty. In recent years, a number of papers have presented different approaches using CGE models to analyze poverty. Among them, the standard CGE models, which generates changes in the income of representative households in order to allow poverty analysis, albeit with no intra-group changes in the distribution; CGE models with high levels of household desegregation (3200) and the micro-simulation approach to modeling (with no feedback effect to the CGE model). In this paper, we provide an alternative to these methods that allows for richer microhousehold modeling then the first two approaches while keeping the properties of standard CGE (feedback effect of household behavior) which is usually simplified in micro-simulation context. We also introduce segmented labor markets with waiting unemployment inspired by Magnac (1991), which provides a basis for important changes in household income (i.e. when a worker leaves unemployment or becomes unemployed). Global and decomposable poverty analysis and income distribution indicators are computed at base year and after a 50% reduction in trade.
Journal of African Economies, May 1, 2023
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 1, 2011
A significant amount of pro-poor growth research has emerged in the context of the millennium dev... more A significant amount of pro-poor growth research has emerged in the context of the millennium development goals and poverty reduction strategies over the last fifteen years. Most of this research focuses on impact analysis of reforms applied in situations of partial equilibriums. Moreover, previous research rarely attempted to analyze policy coherence in this context. In this paper, we will deal with these issues in a macro/micro computable general equilibrium model. We applied our model to the Philippines and generated growth through endogenous labor supply and public expenditure externalities. The mixed results of our reforms simulations illustrate the importance of considering national specificities and contexts when implementing policy reforms.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2015
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jul 6, 2011
The existing relation between the increase in public revenues and the establishment of effective ... more The existing relation between the increase in public revenues and the establishment of effective anti-poverty programs is not always confirmed in the short term as studied by Filmer and al. (1998) and Gauthier (2007). With this observation and in a national and international context of poverty fighting, it is important to assess the social impacts of fiscal reform and to know whether reinforcing public revenues might hamper efforts made to reduce poverty. This enables the hypothesis that the social objectives of the country should be taken into account right from the definition of the characteristics of public tax collection. In order to have the public resources necessary for its development, Niger is examining the possibility of expanding its VAT tax base to exempted goods and basic food products. This proposition has prompted violent opposition. In this context, we have to analyze the impact of the end of exemptions and define in what way a VAT structure could support the poor. The first micro-macro computable general equilibrium model of Niger's actual economy has been developed to shows the net social impacts of the end of exemption. This model allows analysis of the social impact and distributional of the following VAT structures: a pure VAT structure, a structure maintaining certain exemptions, and a multiple-rate VAT structure. To take into account household heterogeneity of household, a micro-simulation model is associated with the CGE model (Decaluwe, 1999 ou Savard, 2005). The principle of “Equal Yield Tax Analysis ” (Shoven and al., 1990) is made for the simulations. It aims to compare various taxation schemes while keeping constant the public expenditure and the State revenue. This analytical approach is fitted to capture the intrinsic incidence of alternative tax scenarios by isolating them from induced effects which may be related to the change in the State revenue, the State expenditures and savings. The model has been run firstly with perfect competition hypothesis and secondly with various market structure. The model’s results shows that although restoring the VAT rate would be socially costly compared to the initial situation, the distributional impact of the VAT differs according to the system implemented in the country. Maintaining VAT exemptions in food crop agriculture sectors associated with a tax base expansion in the remaining sectors will increase public revenue while taking into account the national goal of poverty reduction. The net social impact of exoneration depends on the economic structure of the concerned sector. If the national goal is the end of exemption, the model shows that applying a pure VAT conforming to the theory is preferable in terms of economic growth whereas applying a reduced-rate on food crop agriculture lightens the social impact of the end of exemptions compared to a single rate.
Cahiers de recherche, 2010
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2008
In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies env... more In this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gaz emissions. The implementation of these policies usually aim at reducing greenhouse gases directly or indirectly. However, these policies can also produce important changes in factor allocation, relative prices in specific countries as well as on world markets when these policies are adopted by a large number of countries. The changes in welfare can be important for vulnerable groups of population in developing countries. This survey reviews the evidence on the incidence of these policies. In the process, it shows that the computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation approach has not been fully exploited in the context of distributional impact analysis of CC policies..
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2007
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 11, 2009
The World Bank eBooks, Aug 23, 2010
Economic Modelling, Sep 1, 2016
Cahiers de recherche, 2009
Social Science Research Network, 2015
iv Senegal’s experience with water reform 3 Basic statistical analysis of the reform effects 4 A ... more iv Senegal’s experience with water reform 3 Basic statistical analysis of the reform effects 4 A computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of water utility reforms 7 Who should care about pricing and transfer reforms? 10 The impact of funding schemes on income distribution 15 Conclusion 16 References 18 Appendix 21