ETHNO-RELIGIOUS IDENTITY AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN 2011, 2015 AND 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA: A CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (original) (raw)
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RELIGION, ETHNICITY AND THE VOTING PATTERN IN NIGERIA (2011 -2015
ABSTRACT Ethnicity has been the bane in Nigerian politics, the structure and substance of politics in the country revolves around it. Since independence, the voting behavior of Nigerians has reflected both ethnic instincts such that in virtually all the elections conducted in the country, the voting pattern has often towed along religious and ethnic lines. During the 2011 and 2015 general elections, the two major presidential candidates that contested, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), from the southern region, and General Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC), from the Northern region, practically pitched the ethno regional cleavages within the Nigerian electorate against each other. Based on this background, this research looks at ethnicity and voting behaviour in Nigeria with particular focus on the 2011 and 2015 general elections, with the aim of ascertaining if ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections and also to know if uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups influenced the voting behaviour of Nigerians during the 2011-2015 general elections. In the research design, the ex-post factor research design was adopted, while data was collected from secondary sources such as textbooks, journals, official documents, magazines, newspapers unpublished works and online documents. The method of data analysis is the qualitative descriptive method. The theoretical framework adopted for this research is the Rational Choice theory. It is a framework of analysis which assumes that individuals always make prudent logical decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit or satisfaction and that are in their highest self-interest. The findings of the study are briefly summarized as follows; 1 ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. 2 uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic group influenced voting behaviour during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The following are the major recommendations made on the findings of the study. First, it advocates that the use of ethnic sentiment during election campaign should be discouraged among politicians. Finally, it recommends extensive political education, good political leadership and transparent elections for Nigeria to overcome the influence ethnicity on her electoral process.
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The politics of religion, region and ethnicity have permeated Nigeria's political landscape to the detriment of social relations, voting pattern and legitimate democracy. This necessitates this study, which employed the exploratory, qualitative research design, using thematic analysis to analyze data collected from secondary sources of published and unpublished articles, journals and online resources. The history of voting pattern in Nigeria has shown that since the First Republic, religion, region and ethnicity have been the influencing factor in determining the voting pattern in Nigeria. Religion, region and ethnic cleavages have remained an integral part of political actions, with political parties/leaders and their supporters, being ruled by these factors. Politicians and adherents of religious movements; regional and ethnic groups have used religion, regional and ethnic platforms to achieve their political ambitions, thereby promoting ethno-religious groupism in Nigeria. The study concludes that the political behaviour of the electorates and voting pattern, to a large extent is determined by their religious affiliation, ethnicity, regionalism and other issue-based politics. The study recommends that an enabling platform should be created to enable both the minority and majority ethnic groups to produce the President of Nigeria, by implementing the recommendation of 2014 Constitutional conference on the rotation of the office of the President among the six geo-political zones; this will eliminate the voting pattern influenced by religion, region and ethnic differences.