Ethno-Religious Factor and Voting Behaviour in Nigerian Elections. A Comparative Analysis of 2011 and 2015 Presidential Elections (original) (raw)
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International Journal of Innovation Scientific Research and Review , 2021
A presidential election is an expedient process for the democratization of the office of the Executive President. It therefore represents a national-conscious exercise fundamental for governance and development. This paper examines the trends of voting behaviour in presidential elections of a plural democratizing polity, Nigeria. In reference to the methodology of this discourse, the paper explored the relevance of primary and secondary sources of data collection and, content-analyzed events and issues as regards identity politics and presidential elections in Nigeria. This discourse adopted the theory of Marxian historical dialectical materialism to establish that voter enthusiasm and preference of Nigeria electorate is a function of ethno-religious identity driven by the motive of materialism nurtured and advanced by the history of alienation and competition among the elite ethnic nationalities in fervent struggle for national power and resources. Hence, the discourse explicitly revealed that the dialectics of ethno-religious voting behaviour in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections varied in form and intensity critical for the permutation of 2023 presidential election. In credence to these findings, the discourse recommends for issue-based voting behaviour, advocacy for national consciousness among other measures imperative for visionary leadership for national transformation.
Journal of Policy and Development Studies , 2023
Scholars have written extensively on the imperatives of identity consciousness on voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential politics and elections. However, there are gaps in depth analysis of ethno-religious identity to explain what inform voter turnout and voting choice of Nigerians across six regions of the federation in three presidential election cycles. In other words, this discourse examines the reality or illusion of ethno-religious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections from a cross sectional analysis. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, the sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposiverandom sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study therefore revealed that many Nigeria voters are most often enthused to participate and vote for frontline candidates and running mates who shared their ethno-religious background amid other intervened influencing factors. Again, there were peculiarities of identity consciousness in voting behaviour across regions of ethno-religious backgrounds in Nigeria presidential elections. The discourse therefore suggest for sense of nationhood, advocacy for national rebirth among other fundamentals to mitigate intense euphoria of ethno-religious consciousness and tensions in power transition.
Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 2023
A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 2023
A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
Journal of World Science, 2023
This research investigate the influence of ethno-religious identity on voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State. Survey research design was used in conducting the research as such questionnaire was administered in collecting information from the respondents. The study population consists of all residents in Lagos East Senatorial District, Lagos State. A sample of 200 respondents was selected. Data were analyzed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) statistical method to analyse the formulated hypotheses. Findings from this study revealed that there is significant relationship between ethnic identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .783; N=200; p< .05) and also there is significant relationship between religious identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .719; N=200; p< .05) In conclusion, the study has shown that ethnicity and religion do influence the voting behaviours in the 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos state and analysis of the vote showed that there was variation in the voting patterns of the people as is tilted towards ethnic and religious inclination. Finally, the study recommended, The winner of 2023 governorship election should form all ethnic inclusive government and ensures that no ethnic group would complain of marginalization and also the government should sustain unity among ethnic group in Lagos State and discourage disunity.
2017
The need for political stability and virile democratic culture in Nigeria is a great concern to all Nigerians and the international community. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, several elections have been conducted, but the 2015 election is very significant to us because it exposed the unflinching role of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of different segments of our society. We adopted Rational Choice Theory as our conceptual framework. This paper interrogates the influence of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of the Nigerian electorates and recommends that voting behaviour should be based on party ideology and competence and reputation of the candidates and not ethnicity and religion.
RELIGION, ETHNICITY AND THE VOTING PATTERN IN NIGERIA (2011 -2015
ABSTRACT Ethnicity has been the bane in Nigerian politics, the structure and substance of politics in the country revolves around it. Since independence, the voting behavior of Nigerians has reflected both ethnic instincts such that in virtually all the elections conducted in the country, the voting pattern has often towed along religious and ethnic lines. During the 2011 and 2015 general elections, the two major presidential candidates that contested, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), from the southern region, and General Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC), from the Northern region, practically pitched the ethno regional cleavages within the Nigerian electorate against each other. Based on this background, this research looks at ethnicity and voting behaviour in Nigeria with particular focus on the 2011 and 2015 general elections, with the aim of ascertaining if ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections and also to know if uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups influenced the voting behaviour of Nigerians during the 2011-2015 general elections. In the research design, the ex-post factor research design was adopted, while data was collected from secondary sources such as textbooks, journals, official documents, magazines, newspapers unpublished works and online documents. The method of data analysis is the qualitative descriptive method. The theoretical framework adopted for this research is the Rational Choice theory. It is a framework of analysis which assumes that individuals always make prudent logical decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit or satisfaction and that are in their highest self-interest. The findings of the study are briefly summarized as follows; 1 ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. 2 uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic group influenced voting behaviour during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The following are the major recommendations made on the findings of the study. First, it advocates that the use of ethnic sentiment during election campaign should be discouraged among politicians. Finally, it recommends extensive political education, good political leadership and transparent elections for Nigeria to overcome the influence ethnicity on her electoral process.
Journal of Policy and Development Studies , 2023
Three presidential election cycles in Nigeria's recent history of power transition were respectively replete with interesting trends and dynamics. One of the remarkable was the euphoria of identity consciousness shared in these polls. This discourse therefore examines outcome of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections with the aim to establish the illusion or reality of ethno-religious voting pattern in government appointments. The methodology of the study is qualitative exploratory design which underscored the import of documentary source and Key Informant Interview (KII) or Process Tracing PT which involves conducting personal interviews and Focus Group Discussion, FGD with knowledgeable person as procedures for data collection. The data collected were textually analyzed and showed a significant correlation between ethno-religious voting pattern of Nigerians and lopsided government appointments after 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections although in different scale. From the findings,
RELIGION, REGION, ETHNICITY AND VOTING PATTERN IN NIGERIA'S FOURTH REPUBLIC: A PERSPECTIVE
ICRPC Journal of Institute for Crisis Resolution, Peace building and Conciliation , 2024
The politics of religion, region and ethnicity have permeated Nigeria's political landscape to the detriment of social relations, voting pattern and legitimate democracy. This necessitates this study, which employed the exploratory, qualitative research design, using thematic analysis to analyze data collected from secondary sources of published and unpublished articles, journals and online resources. The history of voting pattern in Nigeria has shown that since the First Republic, religion, region and ethnicity have been the influencing factor in determining the voting pattern in Nigeria. Religion, region and ethnic cleavages have remained an integral part of political actions, with political parties/leaders and their supporters, being ruled by these factors. Politicians and adherents of religious movements; regional and ethnic groups have used religion, regional and ethnic platforms to achieve their political ambitions, thereby promoting ethno-religious groupism in Nigeria. The study concludes that the political behaviour of the electorates and voting pattern, to a large extent is determined by their religious affiliation, ethnicity, regionalism and other issue-based politics. The study recommends that an enabling platform should be created to enable both the minority and majority ethnic groups to produce the President of Nigeria, by implementing the recommendation of 2014 Constitutional conference on the rotation of the office of the President among the six geo-political zones; this will eliminate the voting pattern influenced by religion, region and ethnic differences.
Ethnicity, Religion and Party Politics in Nigeria: An Evaluation of the 2023 General Elections
Journal of Public Administration,Policy and Governance Research(JPAPGR), 2024
Since the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in Nigeria in 1999, ethnicity and religion are arguably the most profoundly complex issues that have influenced the electioneering process in the country. This study therefore seeks to find out the extent to which these twin factors influenced the 2023 general elections. It is methodologically structured using qualitative and quantitative methods. Both methods draw their information and data from secondary sources-textbooks, journal articles, publications from international institution, INEC portal, newspapers and internet sources. These were presented in tabular form and analyzed using simple percentages, described and explained within the context of the subject matter under investigations. Discussions were focused under four political parties; APC, PDP, LP and NNPP. In making this choice, the paper recognized the importance of the mandatory 25% constitutional provision as a condition for the declaration of the winner of any presidential elections in the country. The results reveal that ethnicity and religious factors played a role in the voting patterns of Nigerians in certain areas, but the eventual outcome was determined by non-compliance of INEC with electoral laws, weaknesses in opposition parties, and the politicization of the judiciary. Therefore, it recommended that unless these anomalies are strengthened, future presidential elections will continue to be mirage.