ETHNO-RELIGIOUS VOTING PATTERN AND GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS IN NIGERIA: A FOCUS ON 2011,2015 AND 2019 POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (original) (raw)
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Scholars have written extensively on the imperatives of identity consciousness on voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential politics and elections. However, there are gaps in depth analysis of ethno-religious identity to explain what inform voter turnout and voting choice of Nigerians across six regions of the federation in three presidential election cycles. In other words, this discourse examines the reality or illusion of ethno-religious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections from a cross sectional analysis. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, the sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposiverandom sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study therefore revealed that many Nigeria voters are most often enthused to participate and vote for frontline candidates and running mates who shared their ethno-religious background amid other intervened influencing factors. Again, there were peculiarities of identity consciousness in voting behaviour across regions of ethno-religious backgrounds in Nigeria presidential elections. The discourse therefore suggest for sense of nationhood, advocacy for national rebirth among other fundamentals to mitigate intense euphoria of ethno-religious consciousness and tensions in power transition.
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A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 2023
A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
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A presidential election is an expedient process for the democratization of the office of the Executive President. It therefore represents a national-conscious exercise fundamental for governance and development. This paper examines the trends of voting behaviour in presidential elections of a plural democratizing polity, Nigeria. In reference to the methodology of this discourse, the paper explored the relevance of primary and secondary sources of data collection and, content-analyzed events and issues as regards identity politics and presidential elections in Nigeria. This discourse adopted the theory of Marxian historical dialectical materialism to establish that voter enthusiasm and preference of Nigeria electorate is a function of ethno-religious identity driven by the motive of materialism nurtured and advanced by the history of alienation and competition among the elite ethnic nationalities in fervent struggle for national power and resources. Hence, the discourse explicitly revealed that the dialectics of ethno-religious voting behaviour in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections varied in form and intensity critical for the permutation of 2023 presidential election. In credence to these findings, the discourse recommends for issue-based voting behaviour, advocacy for national consciousness among other measures imperative for visionary leadership for national transformation.
International Journal of Academic and Applied Research , 2021
Identity politics is susceptible to developing plural democracies. Its intensity embellishes in ethno-religious voting orientation in sensitive national elections. On this premise, this discourse argued that ethno-religious voting behaviour was visible in 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. In a methodological sense, the design of the discourse is qualitative in secondary and textual methods of data collection and analysis. The sociological model of voting behaviour was applied to further establish that voter preference is a function of cleavage mobilization and enthusiasm in pursuit of identity interests. The discourse in underscoring the varied intensity of the functionality of ethno-religious voting behaviour in the two successive elections, revealed that the incumbent candidate of PDP won 16 states in the South and 7 in the North and FCT while the frontline opponent candidate of CPC secured a landslide victory in 12 states in the North in 2011 presidential election that witnessed 53.7 percent voter turnout of 73.5 million registered voters occasioned with post-presidential election violence in the North. In 2015 presidential election, the PDP candidate won 12 states in the South and 3 states in the North and FCT while frontline opponent candidate won 16 states in the North and 5 in the South in voter turnout of 43.65 percent from 68.8 million registered voters. These realities amid adverse effects on governance and national development resonates the need for national advocacy, new orientation among other fundamentals to entrench sense of nationhood in the democratization of Nigerian presidential elections.
Nigeria Political Arrangement: The Challenges of Ethno-Religion Consideration
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In an ideal political society, what informed democratic process or governmental policies are issues that are germane to improving the fortune of the citizenry. Unlike in Nigeria where decisions and government appointment are influenced by myopic view for ethnic affiliation and religion sentiment. The role of ethnic affiliation and religion alliance in democratic arrangement and party politics in Nigeria cannot be underestimated. Voter's behavior is often determined by ethnic interest and religion sentiment. It sometimes resulted in the best candidate not being elected or picked for a leadership position. Religion and ethnic affiliation indirectly influenced the political dynamics of Nigeria. The effort to balance religion interest is a challenge to the government. The manifestation of the struggle among the ethno-religion groups was glaring during the 2023 presidential election. Sensitivity around religion interest can be attributed to the complexity in the process in governance. This view can be buttressed by the antecedent of the two major religion divides. Evidence from the activities of CAN, MURIC and others is recent. Politicians no longer consider the sacredness of churches and mosque but for political campaign. Nigeria constitution and government structure have overemphasized the role of religion. The trend is tilting towards a dangerous part of political divides or polarization along religion line. No evidence from the constitution to affirm the religion obligation of the government, but religion affiliation is usually linked to notable political appointments and opportunity to take up leadership position. The work investigated evidence and challenges from the increasing use of religion and ethnic yardstick for choosing political leaders. The research used secondary data, such as books, journals, and other existing literature relevant to the study.
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RELIGION, ETHNICITY AND THE VOTING PATTERN IN NIGERIA (2011 -2015
ABSTRACT Ethnicity has been the bane in Nigerian politics, the structure and substance of politics in the country revolves around it. Since independence, the voting behavior of Nigerians has reflected both ethnic instincts such that in virtually all the elections conducted in the country, the voting pattern has often towed along religious and ethnic lines. During the 2011 and 2015 general elections, the two major presidential candidates that contested, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), from the southern region, and General Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC), from the Northern region, practically pitched the ethno regional cleavages within the Nigerian electorate against each other. Based on this background, this research looks at ethnicity and voting behaviour in Nigeria with particular focus on the 2011 and 2015 general elections, with the aim of ascertaining if ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections and also to know if uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups influenced the voting behaviour of Nigerians during the 2011-2015 general elections. In the research design, the ex-post factor research design was adopted, while data was collected from secondary sources such as textbooks, journals, official documents, magazines, newspapers unpublished works and online documents. The method of data analysis is the qualitative descriptive method. The theoretical framework adopted for this research is the Rational Choice theory. It is a framework of analysis which assumes that individuals always make prudent logical decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit or satisfaction and that are in their highest self-interest. The findings of the study are briefly summarized as follows; 1 ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. 2 uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic group influenced voting behaviour during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The following are the major recommendations made on the findings of the study. First, it advocates that the use of ethnic sentiment during election campaign should be discouraged among politicians. Finally, it recommends extensive political education, good political leadership and transparent elections for Nigeria to overcome the influence ethnicity on her electoral process.
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This research investigate the influence of ethno-religious identity on voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State. Survey research design was used in conducting the research as such questionnaire was administered in collecting information from the respondents. The study population consists of all residents in Lagos East Senatorial District, Lagos State. A sample of 200 respondents was selected. Data were analyzed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) statistical method to analyse the formulated hypotheses. Findings from this study revealed that there is significant relationship between ethnic identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .783; N=200; p< .05) and also there is significant relationship between religious identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .719; N=200; p< .05) In conclusion, the study has shown that ethnicity and religion do influence the voting behaviours in the 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos state and analysis of the vote showed that there was variation in the voting patterns of the people as is tilted towards ethnic and religious inclination. Finally, the study recommended, The winner of 2023 governorship election should form all ethnic inclusive government and ensures that no ethnic group would complain of marginalization and also the government should sustain unity among ethnic group in Lagos State and discourage disunity.
Ethnicity, Religion and Party Politics in Nigeria: An Evaluation of the 2023 General Elections
Journal of Public Administration,Policy and Governance Research(JPAPGR), 2024
Since the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in Nigeria in 1999, ethnicity and religion are arguably the most profoundly complex issues that have influenced the electioneering process in the country. This study therefore seeks to find out the extent to which these twin factors influenced the 2023 general elections. It is methodologically structured using qualitative and quantitative methods. Both methods draw their information and data from secondary sources-textbooks, journal articles, publications from international institution, INEC portal, newspapers and internet sources. These were presented in tabular form and analyzed using simple percentages, described and explained within the context of the subject matter under investigations. Discussions were focused under four political parties; APC, PDP, LP and NNPP. In making this choice, the paper recognized the importance of the mandatory 25% constitutional provision as a condition for the declaration of the winner of any presidential elections in the country. The results reveal that ethnicity and religious factors played a role in the voting patterns of Nigerians in certain areas, but the eventual outcome was determined by non-compliance of INEC with electoral laws, weaknesses in opposition parties, and the politicization of the judiciary. Therefore, it recommended that unless these anomalies are strengthened, future presidential elections will continue to be mirage.