Agro Climatic Atlas of Punjab- Trends and Projections (original) (raw)
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MAUSAM, 2021
In this study,the future simulated climatic data (temperature and rainfall) for the 21st century were downscaled using the regional climate model, viz., PRECIS model (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) for different agro-climatic zones, i.e., Zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri), Zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala and Jalandhar) and Zone V (Bathinda) of Punjab. The corrected simulated data were then analyzed on the annual and seasonal basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall by the end of 21st century are likely to increase by 2.0 to 2.2 °C, 3.3 to 5.4 °C and 33 to 66% respectively in agro-climatic zone II; by 0.4 to 5.8 °C, 2.5 to 7.4 °C and 3 to 62% respectively in agro-climatic zone III and by 0.5 to 4.0 °C, 4.7 to 7.7 °C and 58 to 69% respectively in agro-climatic zone V at different locations of Punjab state under various scenarios of climate change. The trend an...
Climatic variability during cropping seasons in agroecological zones of Pakistan
International Journal of Agricultural Extension
This study aimed at assessing the climatic temperature and precipitation across agroecological zones during cropping seasons. Moreover, climatic variations in Pakistan for both parameters were gauged across defined Agroecological zones comprising both cropping seasons traditionally known as Rabi (Winter/Wheat growing) and Kharif (Autumn/Rice growing). Targeting comprehensive analysis, each season further disintegrated in the three stages i.e. sowing, flowering and harvesting stages. We incorporated meteorological data from 1961 to 2017, further climatic parameters extracted by employing a 30-years moving average of monthly means. The study revealed that the three zones having rugged topography were highly vulnerable during Rabi (Winter/Wheat growing) Season having +0.5oC variation in climatic temperature, whereas more than 20mm steep rise in climatic precipitation, it may cause increased or frequent flooding in lower plains. While the zones having smooth and plane topography are muc...
The changing climate pattern in terms of maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were analyzed based on relevant time series data/information for fairly long period of about four decades in Ludhiana district of Punjab using statistical tools such as coefficient of variation, graphical representation and samples mean (t-test) for periodical shifts. The study has brought out that during the last four decades, region experienced significant increase in average temperature (both maximum as well as minimum temperature) for the months of February, March, April, August and November. Similarly, months of May, October and December experienced significant increment of average minimum temperature. On the whole, consistent rise in average monthly temperature leading to enhanced level of warming has been observed. Regarding rainfall, various months observed with significant changes in rainfall were March, September, October, November and December. Among these, average rainfall in the months of March, November and December showed a significant decrease while September and October months showed a significant increase over the last about four decades. Monthly relative humidity increased in almost all months except April. In case such climate trend continues over the next few decades, may have detrimental effects on the agricultural output if suitable climate adaptive strategies are not put in place with top priorities in terms of suitable research and development.
Relationship of Climate Variability with Major Crops Production in Punjab, Pakistan
2021
This study investigated crop-climate relationship, using yield statistics for major crops (wheat, rice) and climatic elements (rainfall, temperature) in the Punjab province, Pakistan for the period of 1981-2016. The influences of rainfall and temperature on major crops were more realistic using de trended yield data which ignored the technological effects. This study also examined crop-climate relationship during various phonological stages of wheat and rice crops. Correlation analysis reveals the influence of rainfall and temperatures on crop production. Rainfall and temperature are significantly correlated with wheat production during the stage of germination and early tilling in the month of December. Whereas, a significant negative relationship of temperature and wheat crop detected during flowering and on these stages in the month of March. Further, results indicate that rainfall has significant positive relation with rice production during the plantation stage in the month of ...
2020
A simulation study was conducted to analyse the effect of projected changes in climatic parameters on yield of cereal (rice, maize and wheat) crops in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab state. The summary of projected changes in temperature and rainfall (Table I) along with baseline (2010-2021) values during the growing season of respective crops in the state as simulated by Ensemble model under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) and three time periods (EC : 2030-50, MC : 2051-70 and LC : 2071-90) are given below: Projected changes in maximum temperature • Rice season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.4 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.3 and 1.2 o C during EC, by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during MC and by 2.2 and 2.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in maximum temperature from the baseline (35.2 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 1.0 and 0.7 o C during EC, by 1.5 and 1.2 o C during MC and by 1.8 and 1.7 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in maximum temperature from the baseline (24.9 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-0.1 and-0.6 o C during EC, by 0.6 and 0.1 o C during MC and by 1.1 and 0.9 o C. Projected changes in minimum temperature • Rice season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (24.0 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 4.1 and 3.8 o C during EC, by 4.7 and 4.4 o C during MC and by 4.9 and 5.0 o C during LC. • Maize season-An increase in minimum temperature from the baseline (25.7 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 2.6 and 2.4 o C during EC, by 3.2 and 3.0 o C during MC and by 3.5 and 3.6 o C during LC. • Wheat season-A variation in minimum temperature from the baseline (10.6 o C) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by-1.1 and-1.5 o C during EC, by-0.5 and-0.8 o C during MC and by-0.2 and 0.1 o C during LC. Projected changes in rainfall • Rice season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (556 mm) is predicted under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 137 and 148 mm during EC, by 94 and 107 mm during MC and by 88 and 48 mm during LC. 1 2 • Maize season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (524 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 157 and 166 mm during EC, by 111 and 123 mm during MC and by 103 and 68 mm during LC. • Wheat season-A decrease in rainfall from the baseline (125 mm) was observed under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 respectively by 67 and 67 mm during EC, by 67 and 68 mm during MC and by 72 and 66 mm during LC. Optimization of crop management practices for cereal crops in Punjab The yield of rice, maize and wheat were simulated using models (CERES-Rice, CERES-Maize and CERES-Wheat) with temperature and rainfall data predicted by the Ensemble model during the 60 years (2030-2090) time period. Later the crop models were used as a tool to identify/ fine tune agronomic practices for the sustaining high productivity of crops under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) of climate change during three time periods (EC: 2030-50, MC: 2051-70 and LC: 2071-90) in the state. The salient findings of the study (Fig I, II and III) are given below: Optimized crop management practices for rice crop • The suitable transplanting window will be from 26 June to 16 July in Punjab. • The suitable rice cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PR126. • The increased nitrogen application @155 kg/ha during suitable transplanting window. • The agroclimatic zone V (Abohar) was found as not suitable for rice cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for maize crop • The suitable sowing window will be from 14 to 16 June in agro-climatic zone II and III and 5-20 May in agro-climatic zone V (Faridkot) of Punjab. • The suitable maize cultivar for the state under future conditions would be PMH1. • The increased nitrogen application @145-185 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • The agroclimatic zone IV (Bathinda) and V (Abohar) were found as not suitable for maize cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Optimized crop management practices for wheat crop • The suitable sowing window was observed from 24 to 29 November in agro-climatic zone II, III and V of Punjab under futuristic climatic scenarios. • The suitable wheat cultivars for the state under future conditions would be HD2967 and PBW725. 2 3 • The increased nitrogen application @ 150-230 kg/ha during suitable sowing window. • In agro-climatic zone IV (Bathinda) none of the sowing dates were found suitable for sustainable wheat cultivation under future climatic scenarios. Table I-Baseline and projected temperature and rainfall during the crop growth season in Punjab Crop Baseline period (2010-21) Early century (2030-50) Mid century (2051-70) Late century (2071-90) RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 Maximum temperature (o C)
Challenges to Irrigated Crop Zones of Punjab and Sindh Provinces in the Wake of Climate Variability
International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, 2021
Pakistan is an agrarian economy having 60% irrigated area out of total cultivated area of 30 million hectare. The share of Punjab and Sindh provinces is about 89% in terms of total irrigated area. Climate change is considered as one of the aggravating factors in present water scarcity situation. There are many model studies which articulates this phenomenon however, no study has ever elucidated in the context of actual data. Therefore, an attempt has been made to visualize the changes in irrigated area, crop cultivation trends, variation in consumptive use and precipitation of 4 major crops. The analyses have revealed no significant variations over a period of 10 year which might cause change in cropped area or crop water requirements. Rather the irrigation system, which is designed on supply based, is able to cater the shocks of possible climate extremes. The analysis of crop water requirement and precipitation of three major crop zones shows few natural aspects of irrigated zones; Firstly, aridity is a common feature in the Indus Basin that include cotton-wheat zones of both provinces and all crops zones of Sindh province. Secondly, irrigation system is designed to meet the water needs of these major crop zones. Thirdly, water availability of winter crop is a challenge because of reduced irrigation supplies and more crop water requirement in crop reaching maturity. Finally, management of irrigation supplies during dry and wet period is more of a governance challenge than a climate variability challenge.
Climatic variability and its impact on rice and wheat productivity in Punjab
Journal of Agrometeorology
The annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi seasons) trends in temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall during 30 years (1986 to 2015) at five locations of Punjab (Bathinda, Faridkot, Ludhiana, SBS Nagar and Patiala) has been analysed. The study revealed that during the last three decades most of the stations experienced significant increase in maximum as well as minimum temperatures in both kharif and rabi seasons. In kharif season maximum temperature positively deviated by 0.12°C to 1.34°C whereas in wheat growing period the deviation results was from 0.13°C to 0.93°C at all the locations. The rainfall during kharif season has decreased by 23.2, 27.6, 55.4, 185.4 and 199.6 mm from normal at Bathinda, Faridkot, Ludhiana, SBS Nagar and Patiala districts, respectively in lastthree decades. Mann Kendall statistics showed increasing trend in maximum temperature and highlighted that the trend was highly significant in Faridkot, SBS Nagar and Patiala district. To know the impact of cl...
ABSTRACT Presumably, World faces sundry climate challenges contains often sporadic floods, ruthless droughts, severe thunder storms, infrequent rains, swamped plains and barren land, water assimilation & water scarcity. The broad aim of this study is to observe theoretically and empirically the intensity of climate changing events in Pakistan in general and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in particular. The data on environmental analysis demonstrates that climate change put harsh impacts on crop production in the southern part of the province. For more robust analysis, an econometric model and the panel data regression method is also used, where the data covering the period from 1980 to 2010. The empirical results also confirm that climate change has some strong effect on the crop production in the southern part of the province in the country. The results further reveal that the central region faces relatively a moderate impact while, the northern part has a positive climate impact in terms of crop production. In light of the findings of the study some suggested policy measures would indubitably help the policy makers. Keywords: Climate Change, Crop Production, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR PUNJAB DURING 21ST CENTURY
The summary of the projected changes in climatic parameters in the Punjab state of India as simulated by by five GCMs (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble model) under four RCP scenarios in the mid (2020-2049) and end (2066-2095) of 21 st century are described below. Maximum temperature is projected to vary in the state from the baseline period.