Are Ukraine and Georgia’s aspirations for NATO membership a threat to European security? (original) (raw)

NATO and Russia’s Security Dilemma Within the European Union’s Far Neighbors

This paper presents a viewpoint for NATO and Russia’s security dilemma by analyzing what happened in Georgia, Ukraine, Libya and Syria. At the end of the Cold War re-building of NATO, inheriting Missile defense System by the US government and Russia’s growing concern regarding NATO’s eastward expansion made clear that Russia will not abandon her sphere of influence. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the questions of what is the motivation behind NATO’s new strategy. This will be followed by another question NATO and EU enlargement will push Russia in what direction. The hypothesis of the study is that NATO’s strategy of taking position in the areas where identified as Russia’s backyard and sphere of influence is considered as “casus belli” by Russia. Therefore, Russia, despite NATO’s involvement in the specified area, will not abandon these areas and will continue to use her energy resources and geopolitical advantages as a coercion, especially against NATO members among EU countries.

NATO in Europe: Between Weak European Allies and Strong Influence of Russian Federation

Croatian International Relations Review, 2017

After the collapse of the bipolar international order, NATO has been focused on its desire to eradicate Cold War divisions and to build good relations with Russia. However, the security environment, especially in Europe, is still dramatically changing. The NATO Warsaw Summit was focused especially on NATO’s deteriorated relations with Russia that affect Europe’s security. At the same time, it looked at bolstering deterrence and defence due to many concerns coming from eastern European allies about Russia’s new attitude in international relations. The Allies agreed that a dialogue with Russia rebuilding mutual trust needs to start. In the times when Europe faces major crisis from its southern and south-eastern neighbourhood - Western Balkan countries, Syria, Libya and Iraq - and other threats, such as terrorism, coming from the so-called Islamic State, causing migration crises, it is necessary to calm down relations with Russia. The article brings out the main purpose of NATO in a tr...

Ukraine's NATO Membership Will Strengthen Europe's Security

Rome, IAI, July 2023, 8 p. (JOINT Briefs ; 28), 2023

NATO’s Vilnius summit may not have set the conditions for Ukraine to join the Alliance, yet it has made clear that Kyiv will one day become a member. Bilateral security guarantees could provide Ukraine with protection, but the NATO option presents more advantages: a more formidable deterrent; a guarantee against the bilateral US-Ukraine relationship (the so-called ‘Israel model’) ending up being the main driver of NATO policy; a stronger and longer-term guarantee of anchoring Ukraine in the political-normative framework of the Alliance.

NATO'S PROSPECTS IN THE LIGHT OF THE UKRAINE WAR

Annuaire de la Faculté de Philosophie, 2022

The war on Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022 with the invasion of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, is an event with a potential to cause tectonic changes in the current political, security and economic international order, including the possibility of a nuclear conflict. As it is the case with the other international and regional organizations, NATO too is enforced to reconsider its position in the multipolar world. The research problem of this paper is delimiting the reality from the myth of NATO that has rested for decades. It focuses on the search for the Alliance's real power in a multipolar international system, as well as seeking answers about the future of the European security order (especially through the prism of NATO-EU relations). The key hypothesis is that the course of events (in Ukraine but also the definite rise of multipolar international system) has been predictable. The reasons for the war were deeply embedded in the foundations of the hybrid international system. The preliminary conclusion is that NATO (albeit seemingly strengthened and expanded) will likely face with its irrelevance in a multipolar order. The thesis of a "global NATO" is just a veil that covers the restricted NATO mission primarily as an instrument of the US policy in Europe. Due to the Ukraine, EU (but also OSCE) is likely to see the shattered dreams of its own security system. It means it will be economically, politically and militarily completely dependent on Washington. NATO enlargement is reaching its peak, along with its primarily European reach. Globally, the United States will rely on its own forces and on alliance of the willing, now referred to as the "Collective West."

The Ukraine Crisis and the End of the Post-Cold War European Order: Options for NATO and the EU

The Ukraine Crisis has changed European and US security policy. Irrespective of the impact the crisis will have in the short, medium and long term, the Russian intervention in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent destabilisation of eastern Ukraine will have far-reaching consequences for the following three reasons: It will reduce strategic warning due to Russia’s will and ability to use armed force in its neighbouring area. It is apparently the definitive Russian departure from the idea of a united, free Europe that began with the Helsinki Process and was realised with the integration of economies and societies after the end of the Cold War. An important element in the idea of a united, free Europe is that conflicts must be resolved by peaceful means and not by force of arms. It demonstrates that a number of the partnerships, etc., that have formed the foundation for EU and NATO policies, have been inadequate. Therefore, the crisis creates a need to rethink Western strategy. In the light of this new risk, the West’s existing policy is inadequate. This does not necessarily mean that the policy hitherto has been mistaken, and it absolutely does not mean that we are facing a new Cold War. However, the West must realise that Russian governance does not have the same general goals as those of the West. Although the West can thus in the short term be content to overcome the crisis, the consequences for the European security policy framework in the medium and long term will be appreciable. These consequences will apply not least to the West itself because the crisis has revealed differences in priorities among the Western powers and challenged the world view that the West’s policy has been based on. Furthermore, the West must acknowledge that Russia is willing to use military means to accomplish its goals. This presents EU foreign policy in particular with a number of fundamental challenges and means that NATO must rethink and thoroughly reconsider its obligations under Article 5, especially with regard to the East European member states, where the Baltic States are particularly vulnerable.

A clash of narratives - Russia, NATO and European Security

New Eastern Europe, 2020

In the clash of narratives between Russia and NATO states, Moscow has clearly gained an upper hand. Russian success stems not only from the fact that the Kremlin has been able to send a much clearer and more coherent message than the Alliance, but also because NATO states do not have one narrative, or counter-narrative. One of the central concerns when analysing international security and its history is how to explain certain events and their impact on international politics. For policy-makers and societies it is crucial to define "who we are" and "what kind of world order we want". The passing decade has been marked by a return to a crisis between the West and Russia (sometimes referred to as the New Cold War), with conflict over Russian aggression in Ukraine being the most striking example. Yet the indirect confrontation between NATO and Russia should be measured not only in political disputes, economic calculations and military build-up, but also in terms of the competing narratives that have shaped the understanding or misunderstanding of partners and adversaries alike. One of the ways that the Kremlin gains political and diplomatic ground in international affairs is by putting a wedge between NATO allies, namely, between the United States and its European partners. This was quite evident in the recent intra-NATO rift over Turkey's decision to purchase S-400 missile systems from Russia and deploy military troops, hand in hand with Russian forces, in Syria last October. Simultaneously, even a glance at Europe reveals challenges to its security and stability: Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Algeria, Iran, Turkey-to name just a few states that lay in the so-called arc of instability, and which are influenced, to a certain extent, by the direct policies of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine-NATO: The Dissonance of Expectations

The main aim of this paper is to examine the Ukraine-nATo problem as an aspect of the EU-Ukraine problem through researching the three waves of the nATo expansion and analyzing the modern geopolitical situation around Europe, particularly on its East. The investigation of factors affecting the nATo-Ukraine relations make clear the complicated relations within nATo, connected with the new U.S. geostrategic visions and the Russian factor as the key point on the north East borders of nATo, influence on Ukraine's destiny in Europe. on this way the nATo interests are intertwined with the EU interests. This leads to an understanding the nATo expectations with Ukraine are to stimulate Russia to closer engagement with the West. The traditions of Ukrainian political, social, economic and national-cultural life do not make hard neither pro-European, nor pro-Russian choice, but in a contemporary geopolitical context the way to join nATo is the way to get the real independence, the reliable security institutions, the democratic, non-criminalized, non-corrupted society and to join the European Union.

NATO Expansion to the East: Georgia’s Way to NATO Membership, Perspectives and Challenges

The article explores possible NATO enlargement to the East. The study is based on case study analyses and has two objectives: to provide analyses of the dynamics of Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic process, and to show how this process corresponds to existing experience and practice. Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, integration path, and domestic and external factors have all been taken into consideration, as have the degree to which Russia can negatively influence the eastward enlargement process, and what candidate/aspirant countries can offer NATO to secure future membership. The authors present scenarios that are likely to affect domestic and international changes with regard to future NATO membership.