On the origin of domestic and international terrorism (original) (raw)
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The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism
European Journal of Political Economy, 2011
Prior research has concluded that socio-economic development does not significantly affect terrorism. We take an alternative view. First, we note that a country's socio-economic circumstances affect terrorists' behavior through terrorism's opportunity costs. We argue that this reasoning also holds in the case of supreme value terrorism. Then, we employ a series of negative binomial regressions for 110 countries between 1971 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that poor socio-economic development is conducive to terrorism. We find that socioeconomic variables indeed matter to terrorism, contrary to other results. Our findings imply that countries can benefit from economic development and growth in terms of a reduction in terrorism.
Globalizing Terrorism and Economic-Politic Dynamics
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Global & Regional Studies , 2017
Understanding the potential dynamics of terrorism, which have increased dramatically and become a vital problem in the international system, is crucial to succeed in the fight against terrorism. The economic and politic problems such as poverty, anti-democratic practices and politic instability are often observed in countries that most affected by terrorism; indicate that terrorism may have economic and political dynamics. Although, most affected countries from terrorism have similar characteristics, same political and economic conditions are invalid for all countries. It shows that terrorism is complicated element and cannot be explained uniformly. For this purpose, this study uses an econometric analysis by using Panel Data Analysis, as well as qualitative analysis which covers the period of 2002-2011 and 156 countries Case Control Methodology in order to determine the potential economic, political, psychological and regional dynamics which stand out in the literature on terrorism. Here it has been indicated that in societies, which exhibit high rates of ethnic, linguistic or religious fractionalization, as opposed to homogeneity, terrorism can be linked with economic and political dynamics such as income level and democratization. Moreover, other important findings of the model include that the number of casualties which are caused by acts of terrorism and responses represent a vital psychological impact of terrorism overall. Also, countries in troubled destinations have more potential terrorism risk; such that terrorism has regional dynamics.
Economic and Political Determinants of Terrorism in Selected European Countries
2020
In this paper, we aim to assess the connection between terrorist attacks and socioeconomic and political indicators through an empirical study of selected 16 European countries. In order to reduce the dimension of the problem, factor analysis is applied in order to transform the indicator variables into factors. The countries are classified into clusters based on similarity of their economic and political indicator development, using loadings of the indicators onto the factors. For countries in each cluster, the connection of their political and socioeconomic indicators with terrorist attacks is then studied via correlation analysis of the attacks and the aforementioned factors. We propose two hypotheses – the hypothesis of opportunity costs, and the hypothesis of economic deprivation. For countries in each cluster, the hypotheses are examined with the use of correlation analysis. The results indicate that economic development affects the frequency of terrorist attacks in Belgium, F...
Political Regimes and the Determinants of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism
SSRN Electronic Journal
Why do some democratic governments react weakly to terrorism, while apparently similar regimes react harshly? More generally, what are the determinants of governments' reaction to terrorism? And, what are the determinants of terrorism and of its dynamic? In this paper we focus on domestic terrorism and counter-terrorism as a¤ected by economic development, political heterogeneity, citizens' human capital, and government accountability and responsiveness. The empirical research has not reached a consensus on the socioeconomic determinants of terrorism. A possible explanation is that observable data may depend on hidden causal links that are not simply caught by standard regressions. 1 In this paper we argue that terrorism activities are endogenous to the governments' counter-terrorism choices, which in turn does depend on political and socioeconomic factors. Our basic point is that both causes and consequences of terror can only be understood in terms of strategic interaction among political actors, primarily government and citizens. We propose a model that considers human capital, economic development, political heterogeneity, government responsiveness and accountability as possible factors in ‡uencing terrorism and the government's response. We show that the game has three possible equilibrium outcomes, uniquely determined by our parameters: a Strong Regime characterized by no terrorism, high counter-terrorism and increasing protests, a Flexible Regime characterized by low terrorism which increase or decrease according to the random reaction of the government, and a Permissive Regime characterized by terrorism activity, no counter-terrorism and no protests. We also show that it is possible for a democratic regime to repress harshly and for an autocratic polity to be permissive.
From (No) Butter to Guns? Understanding the Economic Role in Transnational Terrorism
This paper provides a comprehensive study into the economic determinants of transnational terrorism and the role that development can play in fostering a more peaceful world. We analyze models of conflict resolution to investigate the relative importance of economic development on domestic and transnational terrorism. We construct an original database from 1968-2003 for 179 countries, to examine the extent to which economic factors influence the decision to undergo transnational terrorist activities. We also compare these results to a sub-sample from 1998-2003 on domestic terrorism. We find that economic development is associated with higher incidents of transnational terrorism, especially in higher income countries. However, when considering lower income countries, economic progress is actually negatively related to transnational terrorism. Finally, we find that higher income is a deterrent to domestic terrorism in both rich and poor countries.
Socio-Economic Antecedents of Transnational Terrorism: Exploring the Correlation
Policies related to thwarting transnational terrorism have been at the forefront of political and social debates. In this paper we empirically examine the impacts of socioeconomic conditions on the probability and frequency of participation in transnational terrorism events. We use count data analysis techniques in combination with the newly combined annual data on transnational terrorism and socioeconomic variables from 1980 to 2000. We find strong correlations between economic conditions and probability and frequency of participation in terrorism events. Specifically, one of the key findings is a non-linear relationship between per capita income and participation in transnational terrorism. The results suggest that extreme poverty may preclude the opportunities to participate in terrorism acts while relative alleviation of poverty levels may provide marginal resources to participate in terrorism acts and materialize accumulated hatred. Similarly, education has a non-monotonic effect on the participation in terrorism acts, i.e., improving labor force education from primary to secondary level may increase frequencies of transnational terrorism. On the other hand, improving the labor force education from secondary to tertiary level may decrease the frequencies of transnational terrorism events. The results also indicate that economic freedom, openness to trade, income equity, and religion play a significant role in the probability and frequency of transnational terrorism events.
Journal of Islamic Thought and Civilization, 2019
Terrorism has become a threatening and fear-provoking phenomenon in the present times. The occurrence of terrorists' activities is carried on without discrimination of Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. The study aims to investigate the trends and severity of terrorism in both Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. A sample of forty five Muslim and one hundred and thirty Non-Muslim countries will be analysed. The role of strong economic indicators in reducing the surge of terrorism will be accessed and the relationship of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with terrorism will also be calculated. Panel Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique will be used to examine the relationship among these variables and Per Capita GDP In both types of countries, terrorist activities will be evaluated through number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Besides this, correlation will be applied to examine the association among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Descriptive statistics evidently indicates huge losses in the form of number of attacks, killings and injured people. From 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 67518, 188775 and 272683 respectively in Muslim countries. In the same way, in Non-Muslim countries, from 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 86914, 159386 and 167828 respectively. Number of injuries and killings are comparatively higher in Muslim countries whereas Non-Muslim countries have higher number of attacks. Elevated correlation is found among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. However, the correlation among per capita GDP and the other variables found negative. OLS findings as well show negative relationship among per capita GDP and number of attacks, killings and injured persons. With the increase in per capita GDP, terrorism can be minimized or reduced. Improvement in economic activity can also diminish terrorism outcomes particularly in developing countries.
The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)
European Journal of Political Economy, 2011
The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socioeconomic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. Results are mixed. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost can be confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of economic opportunities for an individual the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for him to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second and, however, in line with modernization theory, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is explained following the productivity argument. That is, the number of terrorist casualties is positively associated with real GDP per capita.
This paper investigates, in an aggregate sense, the possible effects of some economic and political factors on terrorism. Terrorism is represented by two measurable variables: terror incidents and the number of fatalities. Most economic and political factors affect both terror incidents and the number of fatalities significantly. Countries with higher FDI, higher trade volume, higher urbanization rate, higher GDP per capita, and higher education expenditures face smaller number of terror incidents. Countries with higher population, higher income inequality, higher unemployment, and higher military expenditures experience a higher number of terror incidents..tr, Tlf: + 90 (0) 256 3477011, Fax: + 90(0) 256 3477016 Okan University, Vocational School, Kadikoy Kampus, Kadikoy, Istanbul, Turkey. ibrahim.cetinkaya@okan.edu.tr, Tlf: + 90 (0) 216 3254818, Fax: + 90(0) 216 3396136. Okan University, Vocational School, Kadikoy Kampus, Kadikoy, Istanbul, Turkey. bilgin.orgun@okan.edu.tr, Tlf: + 90 (0) 216 3254818, Fax: + 90(0) 216 3396136. ÖZ Bu çalışma bazı ekonomik ve politik faktörlerin terörizm üzerindeki muhtemel etkilerini bir bütün olarak araştırmak için yapılmıştır. Terörizm, terör olayları ve meydana gelen insan kayıplarının sayısı olarak iki ölçülebilir değişkenle temsil edilmiştir. Ekonomik ve politik faktörlerin çoğu hem terör olaylarını hem de kayıpların sayısını önemli derecede etkilemektedir. Yüksek miktarda Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım çeken, yüksek ticaret hacmine, yüksek şehirleşme oranına, yüksek kişi başı GSYİH'ya ve yüksek eğitim harcamalarına sahip ülkeler daha az terör olayıyla yüzleşmektedir. Yüksek nüfusa sahip, gelir dağılımında eşitsizliğin daha yüksek olduğu, yüksek işsizlik oranına sahip ve daha fazla askeri harcama yapan ülkeler daha yüksek terör olayıyla yüzleşmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Terörizm, Ekonomik ve Politik Faktörler.
Since September the 11 th , 2001, terrorism has received renewed attention and study from the media, publics and scholars alike. While voluminous journalistic writings and some empirical research exists on the causes and structures of terrorism, comparatively little research has thoroughly explored the political and social impacts of terrorism and the responses societies and states have to terrorism. Conventional wisdom suggests that terrorism is born of political and economic grievance in poor, quasiauthoritarian states. Indeed, a large number of terrorist attacks are within developing nations. However, the relationship between structural conditions and terror may be more complicated. What if terrorism contributes to political and social disruption, which in turn leads to even more grievances that inspire further campaigns of political violence? In other words, does terrorism breed the very conditions that encourage insurgency in the first place, leading to a downward spiral of conflict and grievance thereby worsening the plight developing nations find themselves in?