From (No) Butter to Guns? Understanding the Economic Role in Transnational Terrorism (original) (raw)
Related papers
The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism
European Journal of Political Economy, 2011
Prior research has concluded that socio-economic development does not significantly affect terrorism. We take an alternative view. First, we note that a country's socio-economic circumstances affect terrorists' behavior through terrorism's opportunity costs. We argue that this reasoning also holds in the case of supreme value terrorism. Then, we employ a series of negative binomial regressions for 110 countries between 1971 and 2007 to test the hypothesis that poor socio-economic development is conducive to terrorism. We find that socioeconomic variables indeed matter to terrorism, contrary to other results. Our findings imply that countries can benefit from economic development and growth in terms of a reduction in terrorism.
Socio-Economic Antecedents of Transnational Terrorism: Exploring the Correlation
Policies related to thwarting transnational terrorism have been at the forefront of political and social debates. In this paper we empirically examine the impacts of socioeconomic conditions on the probability and frequency of participation in transnational terrorism events. We use count data analysis techniques in combination with the newly combined annual data on transnational terrorism and socioeconomic variables from 1980 to 2000. We find strong correlations between economic conditions and probability and frequency of participation in terrorism events. Specifically, one of the key findings is a non-linear relationship between per capita income and participation in transnational terrorism. The results suggest that extreme poverty may preclude the opportunities to participate in terrorism acts while relative alleviation of poverty levels may provide marginal resources to participate in terrorism acts and materialize accumulated hatred. Similarly, education has a non-monotonic effect on the participation in terrorism acts, i.e., improving labor force education from primary to secondary level may increase frequencies of transnational terrorism. On the other hand, improving the labor force education from secondary to tertiary level may decrease the frequencies of transnational terrorism events. The results also indicate that economic freedom, openness to trade, income equity, and religion play a significant role in the probability and frequency of transnational terrorism events.
Economic conditions and terrorism
European Journal of Political Economy, 2004
We explore the links between the incidence of terrorism and the state of a country's economy. Groups that are unhappy with the current economic status quo, yet unable to bring about drastic institutional changes, may find it rational to engage in terrorist activities. The result is a pattern of reduced economic activity and increased terrorism. In contrast, an alternative environment can emerge where access to economic resources is more abundant and terrorism is reduced. Our empirical results are consistent with the theory. We find that for democratic, high income countries, economic contractions lead to increased likelihood of terrorist activities. D
Socioeconomic and Demographic Roots of Terrorism
The Making of a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training and Root Causes, 2005
Although various hypotheses about the causes of terrorism have been proposed, a number of important factors have been largely ignored. Geopolitics, especially richworld attempts to control oil, help incite terrorist attacks on the rich by people from developing countries. But demographic and socioeconomic factors, especially poverty, inequality and large numbers of young men facing dim economic prospects, also are likely contributors to such terrorism. We show that those factors will not ameliorate soon without determined effort. Developed nations, particularly the United States, could help reduce terrorism by controlling over-consumption and increasing carefully targeted aid to developing nations.
On the origin of domestic and international terrorism
European Journal of Political …, 2011
We analyze the determinants of the origin of domestic and international terrorism in a large panel data set of 159 countries spanning from 1970 to 2007. We show that terror increases with GDP per capita, a higher POLITY score measuring a more open and competitive political ...
Journal of Islamic Thought and Civilization, 2019
Terrorism has become a threatening and fear-provoking phenomenon in the present times. The occurrence of terrorists' activities is carried on without discrimination of Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. The study aims to investigate the trends and severity of terrorism in both Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. A sample of forty five Muslim and one hundred and thirty Non-Muslim countries will be analysed. The role of strong economic indicators in reducing the surge of terrorism will be accessed and the relationship of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with terrorism will also be calculated. Panel Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique will be used to examine the relationship among these variables and Per Capita GDP In both types of countries, terrorist activities will be evaluated through number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Besides this, correlation will be applied to examine the association among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Descriptive statistics evidently indicates huge losses in the form of number of attacks, killings and injured people. From 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 67518, 188775 and 272683 respectively in Muslim countries. In the same way, in Non-Muslim countries, from 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 86914, 159386 and 167828 respectively. Number of injuries and killings are comparatively higher in Muslim countries whereas Non-Muslim countries have higher number of attacks. Elevated correlation is found among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. However, the correlation among per capita GDP and the other variables found negative. OLS findings as well show negative relationship among per capita GDP and number of attacks, killings and injured persons. With the increase in per capita GDP, terrorism can be minimized or reduced. Improvement in economic activity can also diminish terrorism outcomes particularly in developing countries.
Globalizing Terrorism and Economic-Politic Dynamics
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Global & Regional Studies , 2017
Understanding the potential dynamics of terrorism, which have increased dramatically and become a vital problem in the international system, is crucial to succeed in the fight against terrorism. The economic and politic problems such as poverty, anti-democratic practices and politic instability are often observed in countries that most affected by terrorism; indicate that terrorism may have economic and political dynamics. Although, most affected countries from terrorism have similar characteristics, same political and economic conditions are invalid for all countries. It shows that terrorism is complicated element and cannot be explained uniformly. For this purpose, this study uses an econometric analysis by using Panel Data Analysis, as well as qualitative analysis which covers the period of 2002-2011 and 156 countries Case Control Methodology in order to determine the potential economic, political, psychological and regional dynamics which stand out in the literature on terrorism. Here it has been indicated that in societies, which exhibit high rates of ethnic, linguistic or religious fractionalization, as opposed to homogeneity, terrorism can be linked with economic and political dynamics such as income level and democratization. Moreover, other important findings of the model include that the number of casualties which are caused by acts of terrorism and responses represent a vital psychological impact of terrorism overall. Also, countries in troubled destinations have more potential terrorism risk; such that terrorism has regional dynamics.
The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)
European Journal of Political Economy, 2011
The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socioeconomic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. Results are mixed. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost can be confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of economic opportunities for an individual the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for him to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second and, however, in line with modernization theory, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is explained following the productivity argument. That is, the number of terrorist casualties is positively associated with real GDP per capita.
Terrorism From Within: An Economic Model of Terrorism
2002
In this paper, we develop and explore the implications of an economic model that links the incidence of terrorism in a country to the economic circumstances facing that country. We briefly sketch out a theory, in the spirit of , that describes terrorist activities as being initiated by groups that are unhappy with the current economic status quo, yet unable to bring about drastic political and institutional changes that can improve their situation. Such groups with limited access to opportunity may find it rational to engage in terrorist activities. The result is then a pattern of reduced economic activity and increased terrorism. In contrast, an alternative environment can emerge where access to economic resources is more abundant and terrorism is reduced. Our empirical results are consistent with the theory. We find that for democratic, high income countries, economic contractions (i.e. recessions) can provide the spark for increased probabilities of terrorist activities.