Natural Hazards Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof... more

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.

Planning for Community Resilience is a handbook to help communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. The authors argue that disaster is the interaction between a biophysical event, the human built environment, and... more

Planning for Community Resilience is a handbook to help communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. The authors argue that disaster is the interaction between a biophysical event, the human built environment, and human society. The social and physical vulnerabilities contributing to a disaster, such as the location of sewer pipes relative to a flood

Floods continue to pose a significant threat to the property and safety of human populations in the United States. The economic impact from floods is estimated in the billions of dollars annually, and these losses are exacerbated by... more

Floods continue to pose a significant threat to the property and safety of human populations in the United States. The economic impact from floods is estimated in the billions of dollars annually, and these losses are exacerbated by increasing development. This article examines the impact of wetland alteration on flood damage among local jurisdictions in Florida over a 7-year period. Specifically, we measure wetland loss through the record of permits granted under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Results show that, after controlling for environmental and socioeconomic variables, the number, type, and location of wetland permits are a significant predictor of flood damages.

11 Abstract. Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social 12 and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of 13 time. However, in the past, the concept of... more

11 Abstract. Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social 12 and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of 13 time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many 14 cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of 15 this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the 16 expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the 17 conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second 18 order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strike an urban centre. The proposed 19 general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and 20 comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical 21 damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability 22 of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social 23 context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In 24 the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. 25 According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from 26 existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index 27 by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-28 economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its 29 single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) 30 and Barcelona (Spain). 31 Key words: holistic approach, risk evaluation, seismic risk, socio-economic vulnerability 32 33 34 1. The Notion of Risk 35 Many of the conceptual approaches of risk had their origin in the studies 36 on technological hazards and some of them were extrapolated to the field 37 of natural disaster risk. Perhaps, the first specialized researches on the to-38 pic of natural disasters started in the early 1960's based on the pioneering 39 contributions of Gilbert White (1964) from the view of the ecology and

Every year many deaths and injuries and economical losses caused by rock and boulder falls cause harm to people who live in and pass through mountainous regions and routes. Rockfalls can be triggered even by small earthquakes. Realistic... more

Every year many deaths and injuries and economical losses caused by rock and boulder falls cause harm to people who live in and pass through mountainous regions and routes. Rockfalls can be triggered even by small earthquakes. Realistic simulation of rock falls, along with defining their most vulnerable fall trajectories, can result in providing mitigation measures in the right places with the least costs. One of the keys to the successful simulation of a rockfall is considering real shape for falling objects which do not have simple geometrical outlines. When dealing with more realistic rock shapes rather than circular ones in the two dimensional space, the calculations become enormously long and expensive; hence, the simulation becomes impractical for most civil engineering projects. This leads to rough study of rockfall hazard of prone areas, which leads to over-designing the measuring structures, and/or passing over the probable hazards; both of which end in economical losses and fatalities. The bottleneck in the rockfall simulation calculations is the phase in which collision between moving objects is checked. This paper is formulated to address the problem by presenting a novel method to complete this phase faster by means of a coordinate mapping to reduce the size of the simulation domain, using posets to form an adjacency matrix between objects, and use of an automatic-elimination process to avoid unnecessary collision calculations. This paper concentrates on solving the problem in a rectangular, two-dimensional region with randomly distributed objects of pentagonal shape. The results are then compared with the computationallyintensive naive approach, which sweeps the whole domain for checking collision between the moving objects, and its performance is shown.

The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in... more

The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in disaster management by documenting and analysing its role in rural settings in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. The study examines the role of the mosque in relation to key actors from the state, civil society and private sector during response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation phases of the Pakistan earthquake. Using qualitative research methods and a case study design, this article analyses primary data collected through 5 months of fieldwork (in 2009 and 2010). The findings demonstrate the multifaceted and distinct contribution of the mosque in cultural, economic, social and political aspects of the lives of the earthquake-affected communities. Possible challenges to engagement with the mosque, both gender inclusiveness and political controversy around its role, are also raised. This research suggests that state, civil society and private sector actors involved in disaster management need to understand complex relationships involving people and their religious institutions, and their impact on the social dimension of recovery. The findings of the study contribute to the scarce knowledge about the role of community-based religious institutions including churches, mosques, synagogues and temples and call for engagement: that is, acknowledging and valuing their role for building

In this paper, we evaluate the predictive performance of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using six different membership functions (MF). In combination with a geographic information system (GIS), ANFIS was used for land... more

In this paper, we evaluate the predictive performance of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using six different membership functions (MF). In combination with a geographic information system (GIS), ANFIS was used for land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSM) in the Marand plain, northwest Iran. This area is prone to droughts and low groundwater levels and subsequent land subsidence damages. Therefore, a land subsidence inventory database was created from an extensive field survey. Areas of land subsidence or areas showing initial signs of subsidence were used for training, while onethird of inventory database were reserved for testing and validation. The inventory database randomly divided into three different folds of the same size. One of the folds was chosen for testing and validation. Other two folds was used for training. This process repeated for every fold in the inventory dataset. Thereafter, land subsidence related factors, such as hydrological and topographical factors, were prepared as GIS layers. Areas susceptible to land subsidence were then analyzed using the ANFIS approach, and land subsidence susceptibility maps were created, whereby six different MFs were applied. Lastly, the results derived from each MF were validated with those areas of the land subsidence database that were not used for training. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn for all LSSMs, and the areas under the curves were calculated. The ROC analyses for the six LSSMs yielded very high prediction values for two out of the six methods, namely the difference of DsigMF (0.958) and GaussMF (0.951). The integration of ANFIS and GIS generally led to high LSSM prediction accuracies. This study demonstrated that the choice of training dataset and the MF significantly affects the results. Keywords Land subsidence susceptibility mapping Á Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system Á k-fold cross-validation Á Marand plain Á Iran & Omid Ghorbanzadeh

This paper presents a broad overview, characterization and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical and... more

This paper presents a broad overview, characterization and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical and space hazards). A synthesis is presented of the identified interaction relationships between these hazards, using an accessible, visual format particularly suited to end-users. Interactions considered are primarily those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards occurring. In this paper we do the following: (i) Identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, 90 interactions. (ii) Subdivide the interactions into three levels, based on how well we can characterize secondary hazards given information about the primary hazard. (iii) Determine the spatial overlap and temporal likelihood of the triggering relationships occurring. (iv) Examine the relationship between primary and secondary h...

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This paper reports on a study investigating cross-cultural equivalence in predictors of earthquake preparedness. Data were collected from Napier (New Zealand) and Kyoto (Japan). These locations were selected because they face comparable... more

This paper reports on a study investigating cross-cultural equivalence in predictors of earthquake preparedness. Data were collected from Napier (New Zealand) and Kyoto (Japan). These locations were selected because they face comparable levels of seismic risk but differ with respect to their cultural characteristics. This mix of hazard similarity and cultural differences provided an opportunity to assess the degree of crosscultural equivalence in predictors of earthquake preparedness. Cross-cultural equivalence was examined by assessing the degree to which individual hazard beliefs (outcome expectancies) and social characteristics (community participation, collective efficacy, empowerment, trust) could explain levels of hazard preparedness in each location. Structural equation modelling analyses revealed similarity in the pattern of relationships between predictor variables and intention prepare in the Napier and Kyoto data. It is argued that this provides support for the existence of some universal, cross-cultural equivalence in how hazard beliefs and social characteristics interact to predict the degree to which people adopt earthquake preparedness measures. Differences between the data sets are discussed in the context of the fundamental cultural differences between Japan and New Zealand. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Daily precipitation data from 590 stations in China covering a period of 1960-2005 are analysed using copulas, the modified Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and linear regression. Changing characteristics of eight precipitation indices are... more

Daily precipitation data from 590 stations in China covering a period of 1960-2005 are analysed using copulas, the modified Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and linear regression. Changing characteristics of eight precipitation indices are investigated in both time and space. Results indicate that (1) the regions west of 100°E, particularly northwest China, exhibit a wetting tendency as reflected by increasing/decreasing number of consecutive rain/non-rain days; (2) the drying tendency is observed mainly in the regions covered by the Yellow River basin, the Huaihe River basin, and the Haihe River basin, and relatively moderate changes in precipitation indices are found in northeast China; (3) precipitation extremes are intensifying in the regions east of 100°E, particularly in case of south China, specifically the lower Yangtze River basin, the southeast rivers and the Pearl River basin. The intensification of precipitation extremes in south China is mirrored mainly by the decreasing number of rain days and increasing number of consecutive non-rain days. Besides an increasing percentage of P90 to the annual total precipitation, (4) the intensification of precipitation extremes has the potential to increase the probability of occurrence of natural hazards, particularly floods and droughts. The spatial distribution of floodand drought-affected crop areas is in agreement with that of precipitation extremes, showing considerable impacts of precipitation extremes on meteor-hydrological hazards. An increasing number of consecutive non-rain days in south China will cause a higher risk of droughts. The regions east of 100°E are heavily populated and are economically developed. Food security, water security, and sustainable socioeconomy in China urgently call for effective water resource management policy.

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period... more

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

The August 2007 earthquake in Peru resulted in the loss of critical health infrastructure and resource capacity. A regionally located United States Military Mobile Surgical Team was deployed and operational within 48 hours. However, a... more

The August 2007 earthquake in Peru resulted in the loss of critical health infrastructure and resource capacity. A regionally located United States Military Mobile Surgical Team was deployed and operational within 48 hours. However, a post-mission analysis confirmed a low yield from the military surgical resource. The experience of the team suggests that non-surgical medical, transportation, and logistical resources filled essential gaps in health assessment, evacuation, and essential primary care in an otherwise resource-poor surge response capability. Due to an absence of outcomes data, the true effect of the mission on population health remains unknown. Militaries should focus their disaster response efforts on employment of logistics, primary medical care, and transportation/evacuation. Future response strategies should be evidence-based and incorporate a means of quantifying outcomes.

The study evaluates the impacts of flash flood (especially 2017 massive flash flood) and explores prevailing adaptation strategies taken by haor inhabitants to subdue the impact. Primary data were collected through field visit,... more

The study evaluates the impacts of flash flood (especially 2017 massive flash flood) and explores prevailing adaptation strategies taken by haor inhabitants to subdue the impact. Primary data were collected through field visit, questionnaire survey, FGD and KII. A purposive random sampling method was applied for selecting 350 households from 10villages located in and around Tanguar Haor. The inhabitants of low-lying haor areas are extremely vulnerable to flash flood. Their coping mechanism has been strictly curved by a number of social, economic, and political factors, leading to vicious circle of debt and poverty to mohajon (money lender) and micro credit institution, perennial marginalization from haor resources by influential groups and subsequent dependency on wealthy neighbors or relatives. The haor indigent community lives with flood, suffers a loss of income and living, confronts it with food shortage and malnutrition, and survives with the circumstances by bearing considerable debt with high interest rates. This vicious circle of debt, resource loss and poverty act as a dynamic force towards their long-lasting paucity and vulnerabilities, which curve their capability to get ready, take action, and recuperate from subsequent floods, as well as any other disasters. Government should formulate combined and effectual haor management and flood management policy and implemented suitably to shield lives and livelihoods of haor inhabitants.

This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the... more

This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Valu...

The linkages between the space-time variability of observed clouds, rainfall, large-circulation patterns and topography in northern India and the Himalayas were investigated using remote sensing data. The research purpose was to test the... more

The linkages between the space-time variability of observed clouds, rainfall, large-circulation patterns and topography in northern India and the Himalayas were investigated using remote sensing data. The research purpose was to test the hypothesis that cloudiness patterns are dynamic tracers of rainstorms, and therefore their temporal and spatial evolution can be used as a proxy of the spatial and temporal organization of precipitation and precipitation processes in the Himalayan range during the monsoon. The results suggest that the space-time distribution of precipitation, the spatial variability of the diurnal cycle of convective activity, and the terrain (landform and altitudinal gradients) are intertwined at spatial scales ranging from the order of a few kms (1-5 km) up to the continental-scale. Furthermore, this relationship is equally strong in the time domain with respect to the onset and intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon. Infrared and microwave imagery of cloud fields were analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of mesoscale convective weather systems and short-lived convection in Northern India, the Himalayan range, and in the Tibetan Plateau during three monsoon seasons (1999, 2000 and 2001). The life cycle of convective systems suggests landform and orographic controls consistent with a convergence zone constrained to the valley of the Ganges and the Himalayan range, bounded in the west by the Aravalli range and the Garhwal mountains and in the East by the Khasi Hills and the Bay of Bengal, which we call the Northern India Convergence Zone (NICZ). The NICZ exhibits strong nighttime activity along the south-facing slopes of the Himalayan range, which is characterized by the development of shortlived convection (1-3 h) aligned with protruding ridges between 1:00 and 3:00 AM. The intra-annual and inter-annual variability of convective activity in the NICZ were assessed with respect to large-scale synoptic conditions, monsoon activity in the Bay of Bengal, and the modulating role of orography. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and canoni

The small island areas oriented to coastal tourism are highly vulnerable to marine storms, given the fluctuation of this economic sector and the increase in its exposure due to the increasing anthropogenic presence on the coastline. In... more

The small island areas oriented to coastal tourism are highly vulnerable to marine storms, given the fluctuation of this economic sector and the increase in its exposure due to the increasing anthropogenic presence on the coastline. In this context, the storms between 1958 and 2017 are studied here in the most important tourist enclaves of Tenerife and Gran Canaria, located in the municipalities of Arona and Adeje (SW of Tenerife) and in San Bartolomé de Tirajana and Mogán (S-SW of Gran Canaria). In order to perform the analysis, wave data from State Ports (Spain) (SIMAR-44 nodes, Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda of Spain) are used. A statistical study of the phenomena can help establish a threshold for the identification of a marine storm based on a significant wave height (Hs) of 2.7 m in Arona and Adeje and 1.7 m in San Bartolomé de Tirajana and Mogán. The application of this threshold identified 144 episodes in the SW of Tenerife and 154 in the S-SW of Gran Canar...

This paper introduces a new and general method for change detection based on the normalized difference change detection (NDCD) technique. A case study shows the use of the NDCD technique for flood mapping. Flood maps for the city of New... more

This paper introduces a new and general method for change detection based on the normalized difference change detection (NDCD) technique. A case study shows the use of the NDCD technique for flood mapping. Flood maps for the city of New Orleans (Louisiana, USA) resulting from the passage of hurricane Katrina in 2005 were produced from the data processing of SPOT-4/HRVIR and Landsat-5/TM images and the maps’ accuracies were verified using as ground truth the flood extension map of the city of New Orleans produced at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (Dartmouth College, USA). The potentialities and performances of the NDCD technique in flood mapping were also compared to other standard change detection methods such as: i) the near-infrared normalized difference, ii) unsupervised post-classification comparison, iii) Change Vector Analysis , and iv) Spectral-Temporal Minimum Noise Fraction. Results show that the NDCD technique led to better results than all the others change detection methods here considered when using the SPOT-4/HRVIR data, while for the Landsat-5/TM data processing the closeness of the post-flood image to Katrina landfall negatively influenced the overall performances. However, with respect to flood mapping in the urban area only, which may be of major interest in most cases, the NDCD technique performed better than all the other change detection methods here considered also when using the Landsat-5/TM data.

In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote flood hazard awareness and mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), credits floodplain management activities and awards premium... more

In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote flood hazard awareness and mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), credits floodplain management activities and awards premium discounts for insurance purchase. CRS, however, has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception. Little empirical evidence exists to shed light on what factors influence the local adoption of hazard mitigation activities. The objective of this project is to provide such evidence through an examination of patterns in CRS participation in 100 North Carolina counties from 1991 to 1996. Specifically, we examine the influence of flood experience, hydrological risk, local capacity, and socioeconomic factors on county hazard mitigation decisions. Results indicate that flood experience and physical risk factors increase likelihood of local hazard mitigation adoption. We find evidence that the proportion of senior citizens within a county has negative influence on CRS participation, and that flood hazard mitigation activities at the county level are more likely when a greater number of nested of municipalities participate.

The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in... more

The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in disaster management by documenting and analysing its role in rural settings in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. The study examines the role of the mosque in relation to key actors from the state, civil society and private sector during response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation phases of the Pakistan earthquake. Using qualitative research methods and a case study design, this article analyses primary data collected through 5 months of fieldwork (in 2009 and 2010). The findings demonstrate the multifaceted and distinct contribution of the mosque in cultural, economic, social and political aspects of the lives of the earthquake-affected communities. Possible challenges to engagement with the mosque, both gender inclusiveness and political controversy around its role, are also raised. This research suggests that state, civil society and private sector actors involved in disaster management need to understand complex relationships involving people and their religious institutions, and their impact on the social dimension of recovery. The findings of the study contribute to the scarce knowledge about the role of community-based religious institutions including churches, mosques, synagogues and temples and call for engagement: that is, acknowledging and valuing their role for building a synergy between secular and religious efforts for disaster risk reduction and post-disaster recovery.

A large number of collapse sinkholes have been developed in the period 1989-2004 in Famenin and Kabudar Ahang plains, Hamadan province, west of Iran. This paper discusses the Hamadan sinkhole conditions and their mechanism of formation.... more

A large number of collapse sinkholes have been developed in the period 1989-2004 in Famenin and Kabudar Ahang plains, Hamadan province, west of Iran. This paper discusses the Hamadan sinkhole conditions and their mechanism of formation. There is limestone bedrock at the base of a thick cohesive alluvial aquifer in the area. High purity of limestone, considerable porosity and existence of numerous joints and fractures favors high karstification of the limestone. Overexploitation of groundwater during the last decades created a significant drawdown in aquifer water table. Besides, deep wells penetrated to the limestone bedrock and evacuated fine-grained materials of overlain alluvial aquifer. Therefore, large cavities resulted from sand productive wells. Increasing effective stresses have mainly caused the formation of dropout sinkholes or cover-collapse sinkholes. The sinkholes of the plains roughly coincide with the maximum drawdown in the aquifer. Therefore, one of the main factors that has controlled the formation of sinkholes is the water table drawdown in the aquifers. Karstification of limestone bedrock and thick cohesive soil of overlain aquifer enhance the formation mechanism of sinkholes.

Assessment of disaster resilience using an index is often a key element of natural hazard management and planning. Many assessments have been undertaken worldwide. Emerging from these are a set of seven common properties that should be... more

Assessment of disaster resilience using an index is often a key element of natural hazard management and planning. Many assessments have been undertaken worldwide. Emerging from these are a set of seven common properties that should be considered in the design of any disaster resilience assessment: assessment purpose, top-down or bottom-up assessment, assessment scale, conceptual framework, structural design, indicator selection, data analysis and index computation and reporting and interpretation. We introduce the design of an Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index (ANDRI) according to the common properties of resilience assessment. The ANDRI takes a top-down approach using indicators derived from secondary data with national coverage. The ANDRI is a hierarchical design based on coping and adaptive capacities representing the potential for disaster resilience. Coping capacity is the means by which people or organizations use available resources, skills and opportunities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation. Coping capacity is divided into themes of social character, economic capital, infrastructure and planning, emergency services, community capital and information and engagement. Adaptive capacity is divided into themes of governance, policy and leadership and social and community engagement. Indicators are collected to determine the status of each theme. As assessments of disaster resilience develop worldwide, reporting of their design as standard practice will track knowledge generation in the field and enhance the relationship between applied disaster resilience assessment and foundational principles of disaster resilience.

Résumé Le fjord du Saguenay est un laboratoire géoscientifique naturel exceptionnel. Sa physiographie et ses caractéristiques géomorphologiques, révélées par les levés multifaisceaux et de sismique-réflexion ainsi qu’une série de... more

Résumé Le fjord du Saguenay est un laboratoire géoscientifique naturel exceptionnel. Sa physiographie et ses caractéristiques géomorphologiques, révélées par les levés multifaisceaux et de sismique-réflexion ainsi qu’une série de carottages, nous fournissent un éclairage nouveau sur l’évolution du fjord du Saguenay à partir du début de la déglaciation du fjord, il y a environ 11 000 ans, ainsi que sur l’enregistrement des différentes catastrophes naturelles majeures qui se sont produites dans la région. De plus, à cause de sa morphologie, le fjord du Saguenay est aussi un endroit de prédilection pour l’analyse des changements climatiques dans cette région du continent nord-américain. À partir de l’analyse morpho-sédimentologique du fjord du Saguenay, nous proposons de le subdiviser en trois parties : le supérieur, le moyen et l’inférieur. Le Saguenay inférieur correspond à la zone comprise entre Tadoussac (kilomètre zéro), à une profondeur d’environ 20 m, et jusqu’à environ 42 km en...

Soil gas radon release patterns have been monitored continuously for more than 3 years in the Eastern Mediterranean Province (EMP) (Southern Turkey), alongside regional seismic events, providing a multidisciplinary approach. In the period... more

Soil gas radon release patterns have been monitored continuously for more than 3 years in the Eastern Mediterranean Province (EMP) (Southern Turkey), alongside regional seismic events, providing a multidisciplinary approach. In the period from January 2008 to January 2011, 14 earthquakes M L C4 occurred in the study area. By monitoring the sites for more than 3 years, the site-characteristic patterns of soil radon emanation of each site have become evident. Radon emanation data show seasonal (semi-annual) variation characteristics; high soil radon values are between May and October and low soil radon values are between November and April. With available rainfall data, the soil gas radon data can be more reliably evaluated. It is shown in this paper that if radon emanation data are available over sufficiently long periods of time and baseline data (and their seasonal variations) are known with certainty for each monitoring site, then the observation of positive anomalies might provide a correlation or connection to seismic activity.

Mountain regions are subject to a variety of hazardous processes. Earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, floods, debris flows, epidemics and fires, among other processes, have caused injury, death, damage and destruction. They also... more

Mountain regions are subject to a variety of hazardous processes. Earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, floods, debris flows, epidemics and fires, among other processes, have caused injury, death, damage and destruction. They also face challenges from increased populations, and expansion and intensification of␣activities, land uses and infrastructure. The combination of a dynamic bio- geophysical environment and intensified human use has increased the vulnerability of mountain social–ecological systems to risk from hazards. The ability of social–ecological systems to build resilience in the context of hazards is an important factor in their long-term sustainability. The role of resilience building in understanding the impact of hazards in mountain areas is examined and illustrated, in part, through examples from Canada and India. Resilient social–ecological systems have the ability to learn and adjust, use all forms of knowledge, to self-organize and to develop positive institutional linkages with other social–ecological systems in the face of hazards. The analysis suggests that traditional social–ecological systems built resilience through avoidance, which was effective for localized hazards. The more recent development and implementation of cross-scale institutional linkages is shown to be a particularly effective means of resilience building in mountain social–ecological systems in the face of all hazards.

Collapsible soils have considerable strength and stiffness in their dry natural state but settle dramatically when they become wet. This paper documents a low-cost, qualitative evaluation scheme using fuzzy set analysis to determine site... more

Collapsible soils have considerable strength and stiffness in their dry natural state but settle dramatically when they become wet. This paper documents a low-cost, qualitative evaluation scheme using fuzzy set analysis to determine site collapsibility based on subjective knowledge of the geological, geotechnical, and environmental conditions and their uncertainty. For each category, factors or subcategories were defined in a decision tree based on relevant literature. Each category and subcategory was then weighted or rated using linguistic terms developed from expert assessment. The linguistic data or information obtained from the assessments was represented and processed using fuzzy sets. To calibrate the criteria, 87 collapse potential tests were performed on undisturbed soil samples gathered from 27 different locations throughout Iran, leading to the definition of a standard collapse potential fuzzy set. Finally, on the basis of the established criteria, a collapse potential map was prepared for a suburban area in the western part of the city of Kerman, Iran.

Since the late 1970s, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has undergone a rapid transition from an agricultural landscape to a metropolitan area. The rapid urbanization has not only increased the area of impervious surfaces in the... more

Since the late 1970s, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has undergone a rapid transition from an agricultural landscape to a metropolitan area. The rapid urbanization has not only increased the area of impervious surfaces in the central plain; it has displaced farmland to the hilly peripheral areas. The objectives of this study are to: (1) analyze how these changes in land use in the PRD have influenced flood incidence over the past 20 years and (2) explore possible changes in flood incidence in the coming two decades. An integrated simulation of the land-use changes and the hydrological processes is employed to investigate the impact of urbanization on the volume of direct runoff. Historical flood records are used for validation. The simulation results indicate that landuse change in the PRD has markedly increased direct runoff over the past two decades. Changes in direct runoff generation and in land use are significantly correlated with historical floods at the county level. These results suggest that the increase in floods stems from the dual effect of urbanization on land use through the expansion of impervious surfaces and the displacement of farmlands to the hilly outskirts. The simulations suggest Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (that the dual effect would continue in a future of business as usual. Stopping farmland replacement would likely reduce the increase in direct runoff generation, and this reduction would be augmented if changes in farmland replacement were combined with compact city development.

Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is... more

Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one-lead day to seven-lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four-lead day to seven-lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particuiarly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool. (KEY TERMS: structural risk minimization; support vector machines; flood forecasting; neural networks.) 1996; Mukherjee et al., 1997).

This study aims to apply the analytic hierarchy process to the study of susceptibility to landslides in a coastal plain located betwen Figueira da Foz and Nazaré (western central Portugal). This method is an important tool to use in the... more

This study aims to apply the analytic hierarchy process to the study of susceptibility to landslides in a coastal plain located betwen Figueira da Foz and Nazaré (western central Portugal). This method is an important tool to use in the planning and management of natural risks. Regionally were distinguished different areas of risk: the limestone hills, the sandy hills, floodplains, coastal plain the coastline and the probable neotectonic structures. The limestone hills are particularly sensitive to mass movements (mainly landslides), the sandy hills are vulnerable not only to movements and fluvial erosion, but also to forest fires. Alluvial plains are vulnerable to floods and overflooding, coastal plain and its aeolian dune field could be very vulnerable to forest fires, the coastline presents high vulnerability to erosion of different types according to morphology of the coast and, finally, the active tectonic structures, particularly those that are related with diapirs, are a sour...

Successive applications of two-dimensional circular slip limit equilibrium analysis of slices have been made to the three sections of the Cox's Bazar Coastal Cliff. These three sections have been found to be stable (S), quasistable (QS),... more

Successive applications of two-dimensional circular slip limit equilibrium analysis of slices have been made to the three sections of the Cox's Bazar Coastal Cliff. These three sections have been found to be stable (S), quasistable (QS), and unstable (U) with factors of safety (Fs) of 1.269-+ 0.01, 1.13-+ 0.0504, and 1.01-+ 0.058, respectively. In the quasistable and unstable sections, the slopes suffered shallow slidings with slip circles parallel to the surface of slopes. The main causes of these slidings are steepness of slopes, lack of vegetation cover, erosion of toe accumulations by runoff water and waves during high tides. The influence of the slope geometry and the material's strength properties of slopes on safety factors are evaluated. The steeper cliffs reach an unstable condition faster than the more gentle cliffs as their heights change by an equal amount. Again, the high cliffs reach an unstable condition laster than the lower cliffs as slope inclinations change by an equal amount. The safety factor increases with a corresponding increase of friction angle (0B °) and vice versa.

Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which... more

Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which relieves stress in the subsurface rocks. On the contrary, the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones such as the Aswa-Nyangia fault zone and the Muglad-Anza-Lamu rift zone are the likely sites of major earthquakes in Kenya and the East African region. These rift/fault zones have been the sites of a number of strong earthquakes in the past such as the M w = 7.2 southern Sudan earthquake of 20 May 1990 and aftershocks of M w = 6.5 and 7.1 on 24 May 1990, the 1937 M s = 6.1 earthquake north of Lake Turkana close to the Kenya-Ethiopian border, and the 1913 M s = 6.0 Turkana earthquake, among others. Source parameters of the 20 May 1990 southern Sudan earthquake show that this earthquake consists of only one event on a fault having strike, dip, and rake of 315°, 84°, and-3°. The fault plane is characterized by a left-lateral strike slip fault mechanism. The focal depth for this earthquake is 12.1 km, seismic moment M o = 7.65 9 10 19 Nm, and moment magnitude, M w = 7.19 (%7.2). The fault rupture started 15 s earlier and lasted for 17 s along a fault plane having dimensions of %60 km 9 40 km. The average fault dislocation is 1.1 m, and the stress drop, Dr, is 1.63 MPa. The distribution of historical earthquakes (M w C 5) from southern Sudan through central Kenya generally shows a NW-SE alignment of epicenters. On a local scale in Kenya, the NW-SE alignment of epicenters is characterized by earthquakes of local magnitude M l B 4.0, except the 1928 Subukia earthquake (M s = 6.9) in central Kenya. This NW-SE alignment of epicenters is consistent with the trend of the Aswa-Nyangia Fault Zone, from southern Sudan through central Kenya and further southwards into the Indian Ocean. We therefore conclude that the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones are

The availability of global and accurate information is the primary factor affecting the possibility of planning and managing effective disaster response strategies, above all in less developed countries. The second determinant factor that... more

The availability of global and accurate information is the primary factor affecting the possibility of planning and managing effective disaster response strategies, above all in less developed countries. The second determinant factor that avoids the full spreading of remote sensing technologies is cost-effectiveness and steadiness of results. This paper illustrates a straightforward method for rapid retrieval of inundation maps at regional and global scale by processing MODIS data with the Spectral-Temporal Principal Components Analysis and Digital Terrain Model filtering. Case studies are presented for three different vulnerable regions in developing countries struck by a severe river flood during the last year (2005, from spring to fall): India, Pakistan and Romania. For all the events studied it was obtained an overall accuracy greater than 95% and a kappa coefficient grater than 0.70, demonstrating this methodology is very accurate in mapping inundated areas. Moreover, the integration with vector data (such as roads, railways or urbanized areas) may be used to fast detect infrastructure damages at regional and global scale. This work is the first step to develop a global geo-database of flood-affected areas, a basic tool for helping public administrators in efficiently managing natural hazards. This is especially useful for less developed countries, which unfortunately suffer the heaviest damages because of the high density of population and the scarcity of prevention and rapid response strategies.

This article estimates the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters using the annual probability of a tornado and new data on fatalities per building struck by a tornado. This approach differs from recent estimates of the cost effectiveness... more

This article estimates the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters using the annual probability of a tornado and new data on fatalities per building struck by a tornado. This approach differs from recent estimates of the cost effectiveness of tornado shelters in Reference 1 that use historical casualties. Historical casualties combine both tornado risk and resident action. If residents of tornado-prone states take greater precautions, observed fatalities might not be much higher than in states with lower risk. Estimation using the tornado probability avoids this potential bias. Despite the very different method used, the estimates are 68millioninpermanenthomesand68 million in permanent homes and 68millioninpermanenthomesand6.0 in mobile homes in Oklahoma using a 3% real discount rate, within about 10% of estimates based on historical fatalities. The findings suggest that shelters provide cost-effective protection for mobile homes in the most tornado-prone states but not for permanent homes.

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871-2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall... more

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871-2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.

Following a major rockfall event in 1987, two types of protection measures were taken in the village Saint Martin le Vinoux (French Alps). Firstly, technical measures using civil engineering were installed, and secondly, a forest... more

Following a major rockfall event in 1987, two types of protection measures were taken in the village Saint Martin le Vinoux (French Alps). Firstly, technical measures using civil engineering were installed, and secondly, a forest management intervention to increase its protection was carried out. This study aims to assess whether this intervention was successful in the sense that it improved the protective function of the forest. We evaluated the rockfall risk for the situation of 1987 (before the intervention), today and the future, using model simulations with past, present and future vegetation cover scenarios. To increase the meaningfulness of our results, we used two different models, called Rockfor .NET , which is a rapid one-dimensional rockfall forest evaluation tool, using simple slope and forest characteristics and RockyFor, a process based on three-dimensional rockfall simulation model that takes the barrier effect of individual trees explicitly into account. Both models correctly predicted that the forest was not capable of stopping rocks from the 1987 rockfall event. Further, both models indicate an increase of the number of rocks reaching the base of the slope from 1987 onwards. RockyFor shows an increase from 11% in 1987 to 19% in 2086. Rockfor .NET shows an increase from 26% in 1987 to 56% in 2086. We conclude that a second attempt to increase the protective function of the forest should aim at restoring a dense coppice stand.

Tropical areas like Singapore characteristically receive heavy and prolonged periods of rainfall. During these wet spells, many of the urban engineered slopes become susceptible to landslides, causing much damage to property and causing... more

Tropical areas like Singapore characteristically receive heavy and prolonged periods of rainfall. During these wet spells, many of the urban engineered slopes become susceptible to landslides, causing much damage to property and causing disruption to urban life. Studies on relationships of wet periods and landslides events reveal that while the weathered materials on urban engineered slopes tend to fail regularly in response to discrete, heavy rainstorm events, they are also closely associated with long periods of antecedent rainfall conditions which often help to reduce the threshold value of discrete rainfall events. Past records of slope failures and recent episodes of failures in Singapore are examined to reassess this relationship. Study found that there is indeed a close association between the two aspects of any rain event and co-occurrence of the two lead to widespread slope failures.

The AD 1498 Meio earthquake (M8.2∼8.4) that occurred along the eastern Nankai trough, and the tsunami generated by the earthquake, induced major geomorphological and social changes along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Geological... more

The AD 1498 Meio earthquake (M8.2∼8.4) that occurred along the eastern Nankai trough, and the tsunami generated by the earthquake, induced major geomorphological and social changes along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Geological coring along the palaeochannel of the Hamana River, southern Shizuoka Prefecture, revealed that its river mouth was abruptly closed followed by a rapid change from river to marsh environment at the end of the 15th century. It is suggested that mass transport of sediments by the Meio tsunami forced the closure of the river mouth. The latter environmental change happened synchronously with the sudden decline of a famous port town, Hashimoto, formerly flourishing along the middle reach of Hamana River. Closure of the water route connecting Hashimoto with the Pacific Ocean potentially led to the decline and abandonment of the port town.

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about... more

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952-2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.

Meso-scale characteristics of disturbances that bring about atmospheric disasters in pre-and mature monsoon seasons in Bangladesh are analyzed. Several types of meteorological instruments capable of observations with high temporal and... more

Meso-scale characteristics of disturbances that bring about atmospheric disasters in pre-and mature monsoon seasons in Bangladesh are analyzed. Several types of meteorological instruments capable of observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions were introduced for the first time in this area to capture the meso-scale structure of rainfall systems. We installed an automatic weather station (AWS) and several automatic raingauges (ARGs) and utilized the weather radar of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). From the radar image in the summer of 2001 (16-18 July), a striking feature of the systematic diurnal variation in this area was elucidated. In these 3 days, the diurnal evolutions of convective activity were remarkably similar to each other, implying that this pattern can be understood as a typical response of local cloud systems to the diurnal variation of insolation under some summer monsoon situations. The ARG data show the difference in characteristics of rainfall between pre-and mature monsoon seasons. The short intense downpour tends to occur more frequently in the pre-monsoon season than in the mature monsoon season. The pre-monsoon rainfall also has clear diurnal variation with a peak that is more strongly concentrated in time. In the northern part the rainfall peak is found in between midnight and early morning, while it is observed in the daytime in central to western parts of the country. Two disaster cases caused

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal... more

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination-the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available-provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergencymanagement plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have contributed to the outcome. Thus the catastrophe was not caused by technological ineffectiveness or defectiveness, nor by an overwhelming eruption, or by an improbable run of bad luck, but rather by cumulative human error-by misjudgment, indecision and bureaucratic shortsightedness. Armero could have produced no victims, and therein dwells its immense tragedy. "We are all of us fellow passengers on the same planet and we are all of us equally responsible for the happiness and well-being of the world in which we happen to live. . " (Van Loon's Geography).

The main purpose of this study is to assess forest fire susceptibility maps (FFSMs) and their performances comparison using modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP) and Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL) models in a geographic information... more

The main purpose of this study is to assess forest fire susceptibility maps (FFSMs) and their performances comparison using modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP) and Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL) models in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. This study was carried out in the Minudasht Forests, Golestan Province, Iran, and was conducted in three main stages such as spatial data construction, forest fire modelling using M-AHP and MFL, and validation of constructed models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. At first, seven conditioning factors, such as altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, annual temperature, wind effect, land use, and normalized different vegetation index, were extracted from the spatial database. In the next step, FFSMs were prepared using M-AHP and MFL modules in a Netcad-GIS Architect environment. Finally, the ROC curves and area under the curves (AUCs) were estimated for validation purposes. The results showed that the AUCs for MFL and M-AHP are 88.20% and 77.72%, respectively. The results obtained in this study also showed that the MFL model performed better than the M-AHP model. These FFSMs can be applied for land use planning, management, and prevention of future fire hazards.

The prediction of seismic motion variability in a given urban area is considered an effective tools to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation, to understand the damage pattern caused by a... more

The prediction of seismic motion variability in a given urban area is considered an effective tools to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation, to understand the damage pattern caused by a strong motion event. Even though the procedures for studying the seismic response and the seismic zonation of an urban area are well-established, some controversial points still exists and are discussed here. In this paper, the selection of a reference input motion, the construction of a subsoil model, and the site response analysis procedures are specifically dealt with. These points are analyzed partially based on literature reports and mainly on the Authors' experience in two Italian case-histories that are the seismic zonation of the city of Benevento, which is a predictive study, and the analysis of seismic response and damage distribution in the village of San Giuliano di Puglia after a strong-motion earthquake, which is a retrospective analysis.

Investigation into possible space weather hazards on cardiovascular system has been performed. A group of 14 healthy volunteers was examined in the spring of 2009 and 2 healthy persons performed electrocardiograph records for a period of... more

Investigation into possible space weather hazards on cardiovascular system has been performed. A group of 14 healthy volunteers was examined in the spring of 2009 and 2 healthy persons performed electrocardiograph records for a period of 1 year everyday in the morning and in the evening. Results revealed that heart rate variability (HRV) parameters of the group varied strongly from the day before till 3 days after the registered weak storms during the time of investigation. Blood pressure and subjective psychophysiological complaints increased statistically significantly from 0 day till ?2nd day. Heart rate (HR) of the group showed a trend for decrease. It was established that morning measurements were more sensitive to space weather variations in comparison with evening measurements. Both persons with prolonged registrations for a period of year did not reveal graded response to geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Both of them decreased HR during moderate storms, but they increased HR during major storms and on the days before and after these storms. HRV parameters varied significantly on these days.