Nixon tapes Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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This article examines the case of America's withdrawal from Vietnam in late 1972 and early 1973 to see what insight it can provide into three key implications of audience costs theory: (1) that democratic leaders should find it difficult... more
This article examines the case of America's withdrawal from Vietnam in late 1972 and early 1973 to see what insight it can provide into three key implications of audience costs theory: (1) that democratic leaders should find it difficult to bluff; (2) that democratic governments should understand that their ability to manage public opinion so as to avoid the costs of bluffing is fairly limited; and (3) that they should pay a major domestic price for backing down from a public threat. It turns out, first, that there was a considerable gap between President Nixon’s public statements and his actual policy. Second, he felt he could avoid paying a price for this domestically by adopting an appropriate set of tactics. Third, when it became clear that his actual policy backed down from several threats, the public did not hold him accountable. This case study, moreover, helps us understand why audience costs do not invariably play as important a role in international politics as the theory suggests—that is, it sheds light on certain key factors that audience costs theory perhaps tends to overlook.