100-year flood (original) (raw)
Unter 100-jährliches Hochwasser, Jahrhundert-Hochwasser oder Jahrhundertflut versteht man die Pegelhöhe (HW100 = Wasserstand bei einem 100-jährlichen Hochwasser) oder Abflussmenge (auch 100-jährlicher Abfluss, kurz HQ100 genannt) eines Gewässers, die im statistischen Mittel einmal alle 100 Jahre erreicht oder überschritten wird. Anders ausgedrückt gibt es pro Jahr eine 1-prozentige Wahrscheinlichkeit eines solchen Hochwassers.
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| dbo:abstract | A 100-year flood is a flood event that has a 1 in 100 chance (1% probability) of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The 100-year flood is also referred to as the 1% flood, since its annual exceedance probability is 1%. For coastal or lake flooding, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flood elevation or depth, and may include wave effects. For river systems, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flowrate. Based on the expected 100-year flood flow rate, the flood water level can be mapped as an area of inundation. The resulting floodplain map is referred to as the 100-year floodplain. Estimates of the 100-year flood flowrate and other streamflow statistics for any stream in the United States are available. In the UK, the Environment Agency publishes a comprehensive map of all areas at risk of a 1 in 100 year flood. Areas near the coast of an ocean or large lake also can be flooded by combinations of tide, storm surge, and waves. Maps of the riverine or coastal 100-year floodplain may figure importantly in building permits, environmental regulations, and flood insurance. These analyses generally represent 20th-century climate. (en) Unter 100-jährliches Hochwasser, Jahrhundert-Hochwasser oder Jahrhundertflut versteht man die Pegelhöhe (HW100 = Wasserstand bei einem 100-jährlichen Hochwasser) oder Abflussmenge (auch 100-jährlicher Abfluss, kurz HQ100 genannt) eines Gewässers, die im statistischen Mittel einmal alle 100 Jahre erreicht oder überschritten wird. Anders ausgedrückt gibt es pro Jahr eine 1-prozentige Wahrscheinlichkeit eines solchen Hochwassers. (de) Une crue centennale (prononcer [sɑ̃.te.nal]) est une crue dont la probabilité d'apparition (dite période de retour) sur une année est de , en termes de débit. Autrement dit, chaque année, la probabilité que son débit soit atteint ou dépassé est de . Il est donc faux de dire, comme l'affirme la croyance populaire, qu'une telle crue ne survient que tous les cent ans. De même une crue millénale a une probabilité d'apparition sur une année de . Enfin, une crue décennale est celle avec une probabilité de retour sur une année de . Ces notions s'appliquant sur la base des crues constatées, cette dénomination statistique n'a donc aucune valeur prédictive immédiate, ni valeur de périodicité. De plus, ces notions sont variables en fonction à la fois des événements constatés et des aménagements réalisés (ex. : barrage, endiguement, imperméabilisation…). La détermination de ces probabilités est difficile car les données historiques de crues anciennes ne sont pas exprimées en termes de débit mais plutôt en cote maximale de crue : il faut donc les estimer en débit pour pouvoir les intégrer dans les séries récentes de valeurs. Il s'agit le plus souvent du débit maximal instantané lors de la pointe de crue, mais il peut parfois s'agir du débit maximal journalier. Un exemple de crue centennale est, en France, la crue de la Seine de 1910. (fr) Ett hundraårsflöde eller en hundraårsflod är det vattenflöde som på en viss plats i vattendraget statistiskt sett inträffar (överskrids) i genomsnitt en gång på hundra år. Man beräknar flödet med frekvensanalys på vattenföringsserier. Sannolikheten är 63 procent att ett hundraårsflöde skall ske någon gång under en period på hundra år, 9,6 procent att det skall ske under en tioårsperiod och 39 procent under en period på 50 år. Sannolikheten är också 40 procent att det skall ske två gånger under en period på hundra år. Andra sorters flöden man skiljer på är -, - och . Ett vanligt missförstånd är att hundraårsflöden sker med en regelbundenhet, till exempel att om ett hundraårsflöde just har inträffat så kommer inte ett nytt på 100 år. Ett exempel på ett hundraårsflöde var vårfloden 1977 i Örebro län, de stora vattenmängderna orsakades av höjda temperaturer som orsakade stor snösmältning samt en nederbörd på 150 mm under ett par veckor. En person miste livet på grund av vårfloden. Man beräknade att 15 000 hektar mark översvämmades. Vattenmängderna gjorde att transportsystemen slogs ut, 20 hushåll evakuerades och mycket jordbruksmark översvämmades. Under nära 40 dagar var Hjälmarens vatten 22,1 meter över havsnivån (mot det normala 21,84 meter), det vill säga 30 cm över normalt vattenstånd. I norra delarna av Örebro län varade översvämningarna under cirka 20 dagar. (sv) 百年洪水（英語：100-year flood）是指，在任意年份发生大規模或更大规模洪水的概率为1%的洪水事件。 与百年洪水类似地，N年洪水（如千年洪水、十年洪水、500年洪水等）（英語：N-year flood），指每年的概率为1/N的洪水。 在中国大陆，百年洪水、千年洪水也常被称作“百年一遇的洪水”、“千年一遇的洪水”，这引发了。 百年洪水也称为1%洪水（英語：1% flood），因为其每年超规模概率为1%。 (zh) |
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| rdfs:comment | Unter 100-jährliches Hochwasser, Jahrhundert-Hochwasser oder Jahrhundertflut versteht man die Pegelhöhe (HW100 = Wasserstand bei einem 100-jährlichen Hochwasser) oder Abflussmenge (auch 100-jährlicher Abfluss, kurz HQ100 genannt) eines Gewässers, die im statistischen Mittel einmal alle 100 Jahre erreicht oder überschritten wird. Anders ausgedrückt gibt es pro Jahr eine 1-prozentige Wahrscheinlichkeit eines solchen Hochwassers. (de) 百年洪水（英語：100-year flood）是指，在任意年份发生大規模或更大规模洪水的概率为1%的洪水事件。 与百年洪水类似地，N年洪水（如千年洪水、十年洪水、500年洪水等）（英語：N-year flood），指每年的概率为1/N的洪水。 在中国大陆，百年洪水、千年洪水也常被称作“百年一遇的洪水”、“千年一遇的洪水”，这引发了。 百年洪水也称为1%洪水（英語：1% flood），因为其每年超规模概率为1%。 (zh) A 100-year flood is a flood event that has a 1 in 100 chance (1% probability) of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The 100-year flood is also referred to as the 1% flood, since its annual exceedance probability is 1%. For coastal or lake flooding, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flood elevation or depth, and may include wave effects. For river systems, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flowrate. Based on the expected 100-year flood flow rate, the flood water level can be mapped as an area of inundation. The resulting floodplain map is referred to as the 100-year floodplain. Estimates of the 100-year flood flowrate and other streamflow statistics for any stream in the United States are available. In the UK, the Environment Agency publishes a comprehens (en) Une crue centennale (prononcer [sɑ̃.te.nal]) est une crue dont la probabilité d'apparition (dite période de retour) sur une année est de , en termes de débit. Autrement dit, chaque année, la probabilité que son débit soit atteint ou dépassé est de . Il est donc faux de dire, comme l'affirme la croyance populaire, qu'une telle crue ne survient que tous les cent ans. De même une crue millénale a une probabilité d'apparition sur une année de . Enfin, une crue décennale est celle avec une probabilité de retour sur une année de . (fr) Ett hundraårsflöde eller en hundraårsflod är det vattenflöde som på en viss plats i vattendraget statistiskt sett inträffar (överskrids) i genomsnitt en gång på hundra år. Man beräknar flödet med frekvensanalys på vattenföringsserier. Sannolikheten är 63 procent att ett hundraårsflöde skall ske någon gång under en period på hundra år, 9,6 procent att det skall ske under en tioårsperiod och 39 procent under en period på 50 år. Sannolikheten är också 40 procent att det skall ske två gånger under en period på hundra år. Andra sorters flöden man skiljer på är -, - och . (sv) |
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