Jahangir Arasli - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jahangir Arasli

Research paper thumbnail of Violent Converts to Islam: Growing Cluster and Rising Trend

Research paper thumbnail of Obsolete Weapons, Unconventional Tactics, and Martyrdom Zeal: How Iran Would Apply Its Asymmetric Naval Warfare Doctrine in a Future Conflict

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per resp... more Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

Research paper thumbnail of States vs. Non-State Actors: Asymmetric Conflict of the 21st Century and Challenges to Military Transformation

Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as ... more Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as a Middle East think-tank focusing on military and strategic affairs of the wider region. INEGMA also provides a range of specialist services to clients in government, military, and commercial companies operating in Middle East defense and security, including; Strategy and Risk Management, PR and Marketing Consultancy, and Events Organization. INEGMA is a Free Zone Limited Liability Company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Beirut, Lebanon. The views expressed in this Special Report are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of INEGMA or any government. Any party interested in quoƟng this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, informaƟon storage and retrieval) may do so on the condiƟon of providing full aƩribuƟon to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.

Research paper thumbnail of The Rising Wind: Is the Caucasus Emerging as a Hub for Terrorism, Smuggling, and Trafficking?

Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of The Fog of the "Non-War" in Ukraine The First Ten Days & Ten Initial Observations

March, 2022

This paper analyses a very initial stage of the Russian invasion into Ukraine in February 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Summer's Bloody Harvest Changing Tides of the European War

In the Russian army, the artillery branch is informally called the "God of War" while the infantr... more In the Russian army, the artillery branch is informally called the "God of War" while the infantry is called the "Goddess (or Queen) of the Battlefield." That terminology reflects the specifics of Russian-Soviet military culture, shaped by the experience of two world wars and other conflicts of the twentieth century. This experience implies the massive use of firepower and airpower to suppress enemy defenses and then take control of its territory by ground forces.

Research paper thumbnail of Box of Gems or Pandora Box How the European War Shifts Central Asia

views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Central Asia has always been... more views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Central Asia has always been a tough geography" The ancient chroniclers lyrically called Central Asia a "Box of Gems" buried in the sands of a desert. Indeed, this landlocked region, placed in the heart of Eurasia (the Silk Road region), far from any ocean shores, is abundant in natural resources of all kinds, from fossil fuel and rare-earth metals to fertile agrarian lands. In the meantime, Central Asia historically was either controlled by or sandwiched between empires that came and went. When the last overlord-the Soviet Union-sunk into oblivion, five newly-independent states emerged from its ruins. After more than three decades, those states continue to suffer from the "shell shock" of unforeseen independence. The search for new identities, ethnic frictions and conflicts, fragile borders, immature state systems, social inequality and tensions, religious radicalization and political violence, demographic pressure, and environmental degradation-all are drawbacks of "post-partum trauma." From this perspective, Central Asia seems like a "Pandora Box" of quandaries, not just within but also beyond the region. And if this is not enough, the 2022 European War (a.k.a., the War in Ukraine) critically multiplied the aforesaid complexities and even threatens to trigger worst-case scenarios. Therefore, this analytical policy brief will focus on the multiple effects of the European War on the region, the emerging challenges and opportunities, the actors involved, and potential outcomes for the five states of this part of the Silk Road region (hereafter, the Central Asian Five, or CA-5).

Research paper thumbnail of The Third Horseman's Ride How This War in Europe Upsets Global Food Security

Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament's Book of Revelation depicts the Four Hor... more Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament's Book of Revelation depicts the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. This later came to be interpreted as a typology of divine eschatological punishment: pestilence, internecine war, famine, and the death of Hell. The four riders were "given power over one quarter of the earth to kill by the sword and hunger and death, and by the wild beasts of the earth," the text says.

Research paper thumbnail of One Hundred Days in Ukraine Blitzkrieg, Stalemate, Deadlock

Research paper thumbnail of Wise Monkey on the Hill Chinese Opportunities, Challenges, and Trade-Offs in the European War

Chairman Mao is reputed to have described his foreign policy posture with a metaphor: "when the t... more Chairman Mao is reputed to have described his foreign policy posture with a metaphor: "when the tigers fight in the valley, the wise monkey sits on the hill and watches how it ends." This dictum comes to mind while assessing the strategy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) towards unfolding developments in the conflict over Ukraine, which is in fact turning out to be European war, given its magnitude and the parties involved, directly or not. Indeed, while the major players in this drama-the United States (which is China's global competitor), the EU, and Russia-remain overwhelmingly preoccupied by the crisis, the officially neutral Beijing can, and most likely will, try to use this opportunity to bolster its position and advance its interests. However, not only do opportunities lie in wait for China in this European war, but also challenges. This analytic policy paper examines various aspects of how the European crisis influences China, but also how it is adapting its global strategy as well as its economic and domestic policies to the new strategic environment. In addition, it explains why the PRC will not take any one side in the ongoing conflict, at least at the current stage. Beyond that, the paper particularly focuses on Sino-Russian relations in the emerging conditions. Russia's China Gambit: Calculations Marred by Illusions Since the end of 1990s, Moscow has been trying to engage China within different geopolitical constructions with the aim of counterbalancing American "unipolarity" or-variously attributed to Sun Tzu or Confucius

Research paper thumbnail of Russian Military Power in Ukraine

Research paper thumbnail of Out of the Comfort Zone The European Dimension of the Crisis Over Ukraine

The latest phase of the conflict over Ukraine has entered its second month. Although it has produ... more The latest phase of the conflict over Ukraine has entered its second month. Although it has produced immediate ripple effects around the globe, its long-term repercussions will only begin cascading later. This analytic policy brief examines the multiple consequences thereof and its emerging new realities in the context of Europe.

Research paper thumbnail of The Bear Got Stuck in the Ukrainian Mud What's Next

Research paper thumbnail of The Fog of the "Non-War" in Ukraine The First Ten Days & Ten Initial Observations

and a former Adviser on International Issues in the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. The views ... more and a former Adviser on International Issues in the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction that no one who has not seen war can properly imagine."-Carl von Clausewitz, On War, I.7 On 24 February 2022, the lengthy crisis over Ukraine escalated into a major conventional war with the deployment of a nearly 200,000-strong Russian force onto the territory of its neighbor. Although having become the largest war in Europe since 1945, Russia insists on calling it a "special military operation"-a rather Orwellian turn of phrase. However, this "non-war" already is producing myriad dimensions and effects, both locally and internationally. This first in a series of IDD analyses and policy briefs on the conflict over Ukraine examines its early strategic trajectories, bearing in mind the likelihood that the war itself is far from being over.

Research paper thumbnail of The Rising Wind: Is the Caucasus Emerging as a Hub for Terrorism, Smuggling, and Trafficking?

Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of Evolving from Revolutionary

Research paper thumbnail of Violent Converts to Islam: Growing Cluster and Rising Trend

Research paper thumbnail of States vs. Non-State Actors: Asymmetric Conflict of the 21st Century and Challenges to Military Transformation

Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as ... more Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as a Middle East think-tank focusing on military and strategic affairs of the wider region. INEGMA also provides a range of specialist services to clients in government, military, and commercial companies operating in Middle East defense and security, including; Strategy and Risk Management, PR and Marketing Consultancy, and Events Organization. INEGMA is a Free Zone Limited Liability Company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Beirut, Lebanon. The views expressed in this Special Report are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of INEGMA or any government. Any party interested in quoƟng this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, informaƟon storage and retrieval) may do so on the condiƟon of providing full aƩribuƟon to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.

Research paper thumbnail of Pasdaran Incorporated: Evolving from Revolutionary to Praetorian Guard

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per res... more Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to

Research paper thumbnail of Obsolete Weapons, Unconventional Tactics, and Martyrdom Zeal: How Iran Would Apply Its Asymmetric Naval Warfare Doctrine in a Future Conflict

: This research paper addresses different (e.g. historical, ideological, operational, tactical, t... more : This research paper addresses different (e.g. historical, ideological, operational, tactical, technical) aspects related to the unique asymmetric naval warfare doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and its naval forces. It is based on the assumption that the ruling IRI regime is, so far, undeterred and fully determined to achieve its final goal to get weapons of mass destruction, thus setting the precondition for further dangerous developments which may eventually lead toward direct confrontation with the USA, and perhaps some other state. Research argues that in any kind of a military-type scenario, the naval power of the IRI would play a crucial role in the overall asymmetric response by the Iranians. To support this thesis, the research, particularly reviews and analyzes: *The essence of, and philosophy behind, the Iranian asymmetric warfare strategy (including its part relevant to naval domain), its historical roots and evolution (how the Islamic Revolution, Iran-Iraq...

Research paper thumbnail of Violent Converts to Islam: Growing Cluster and Rising Trend

Research paper thumbnail of Obsolete Weapons, Unconventional Tactics, and Martyrdom Zeal: How Iran Would Apply Its Asymmetric Naval Warfare Doctrine in a Future Conflict

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per resp... more Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

Research paper thumbnail of States vs. Non-State Actors: Asymmetric Conflict of the 21st Century and Challenges to Military Transformation

Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as ... more Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as a Middle East think-tank focusing on military and strategic affairs of the wider region. INEGMA also provides a range of specialist services to clients in government, military, and commercial companies operating in Middle East defense and security, including; Strategy and Risk Management, PR and Marketing Consultancy, and Events Organization. INEGMA is a Free Zone Limited Liability Company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Beirut, Lebanon. The views expressed in this Special Report are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of INEGMA or any government. Any party interested in quoƟng this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, informaƟon storage and retrieval) may do so on the condiƟon of providing full aƩribuƟon to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.

Research paper thumbnail of The Rising Wind: Is the Caucasus Emerging as a Hub for Terrorism, Smuggling, and Trafficking?

Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of The Fog of the "Non-War" in Ukraine The First Ten Days & Ten Initial Observations

March, 2022

This paper analyses a very initial stage of the Russian invasion into Ukraine in February 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Summer's Bloody Harvest Changing Tides of the European War

In the Russian army, the artillery branch is informally called the "God of War" while the infantr... more In the Russian army, the artillery branch is informally called the "God of War" while the infantry is called the "Goddess (or Queen) of the Battlefield." That terminology reflects the specifics of Russian-Soviet military culture, shaped by the experience of two world wars and other conflicts of the twentieth century. This experience implies the massive use of firepower and airpower to suppress enemy defenses and then take control of its territory by ground forces.

Research paper thumbnail of Box of Gems or Pandora Box How the European War Shifts Central Asia

views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Central Asia has always been... more views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Central Asia has always been a tough geography" The ancient chroniclers lyrically called Central Asia a "Box of Gems" buried in the sands of a desert. Indeed, this landlocked region, placed in the heart of Eurasia (the Silk Road region), far from any ocean shores, is abundant in natural resources of all kinds, from fossil fuel and rare-earth metals to fertile agrarian lands. In the meantime, Central Asia historically was either controlled by or sandwiched between empires that came and went. When the last overlord-the Soviet Union-sunk into oblivion, five newly-independent states emerged from its ruins. After more than three decades, those states continue to suffer from the "shell shock" of unforeseen independence. The search for new identities, ethnic frictions and conflicts, fragile borders, immature state systems, social inequality and tensions, religious radicalization and political violence, demographic pressure, and environmental degradation-all are drawbacks of "post-partum trauma." From this perspective, Central Asia seems like a "Pandora Box" of quandaries, not just within but also beyond the region. And if this is not enough, the 2022 European War (a.k.a., the War in Ukraine) critically multiplied the aforesaid complexities and even threatens to trigger worst-case scenarios. Therefore, this analytical policy brief will focus on the multiple effects of the European War on the region, the emerging challenges and opportunities, the actors involved, and potential outcomes for the five states of this part of the Silk Road region (hereafter, the Central Asian Five, or CA-5).

Research paper thumbnail of The Third Horseman's Ride How This War in Europe Upsets Global Food Security

Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament's Book of Revelation depicts the Four Hor... more Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament's Book of Revelation depicts the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. This later came to be interpreted as a typology of divine eschatological punishment: pestilence, internecine war, famine, and the death of Hell. The four riders were "given power over one quarter of the earth to kill by the sword and hunger and death, and by the wild beasts of the earth," the text says.

Research paper thumbnail of One Hundred Days in Ukraine Blitzkrieg, Stalemate, Deadlock

Research paper thumbnail of Wise Monkey on the Hill Chinese Opportunities, Challenges, and Trade-Offs in the European War

Chairman Mao is reputed to have described his foreign policy posture with a metaphor: "when the t... more Chairman Mao is reputed to have described his foreign policy posture with a metaphor: "when the tigers fight in the valley, the wise monkey sits on the hill and watches how it ends." This dictum comes to mind while assessing the strategy of the People's Republic of China (PRC) towards unfolding developments in the conflict over Ukraine, which is in fact turning out to be European war, given its magnitude and the parties involved, directly or not. Indeed, while the major players in this drama-the United States (which is China's global competitor), the EU, and Russia-remain overwhelmingly preoccupied by the crisis, the officially neutral Beijing can, and most likely will, try to use this opportunity to bolster its position and advance its interests. However, not only do opportunities lie in wait for China in this European war, but also challenges. This analytic policy paper examines various aspects of how the European crisis influences China, but also how it is adapting its global strategy as well as its economic and domestic policies to the new strategic environment. In addition, it explains why the PRC will not take any one side in the ongoing conflict, at least at the current stage. Beyond that, the paper particularly focuses on Sino-Russian relations in the emerging conditions. Russia's China Gambit: Calculations Marred by Illusions Since the end of 1990s, Moscow has been trying to engage China within different geopolitical constructions with the aim of counterbalancing American "unipolarity" or-variously attributed to Sun Tzu or Confucius

Research paper thumbnail of Russian Military Power in Ukraine

Research paper thumbnail of Out of the Comfort Zone The European Dimension of the Crisis Over Ukraine

The latest phase of the conflict over Ukraine has entered its second month. Although it has produ... more The latest phase of the conflict over Ukraine has entered its second month. Although it has produced immediate ripple effects around the globe, its long-term repercussions will only begin cascading later. This analytic policy brief examines the multiple consequences thereof and its emerging new realities in the context of Europe.

Research paper thumbnail of The Bear Got Stuck in the Ukrainian Mud What's Next

Research paper thumbnail of The Fog of the "Non-War" in Ukraine The First Ten Days & Ten Initial Observations

and a former Adviser on International Issues in the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. The views ... more and a former Adviser on International Issues in the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. "Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction that no one who has not seen war can properly imagine."-Carl von Clausewitz, On War, I.7 On 24 February 2022, the lengthy crisis over Ukraine escalated into a major conventional war with the deployment of a nearly 200,000-strong Russian force onto the territory of its neighbor. Although having become the largest war in Europe since 1945, Russia insists on calling it a "special military operation"-a rather Orwellian turn of phrase. However, this "non-war" already is producing myriad dimensions and effects, both locally and internationally. This first in a series of IDD analyses and policy briefs on the conflict over Ukraine examines its early strategic trajectories, bearing in mind the likelihood that the war itself is far from being over.

Research paper thumbnail of The Rising Wind: Is the Caucasus Emerging as a Hub for Terrorism, Smuggling, and Trafficking?

Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of Evolving from Revolutionary

Research paper thumbnail of Violent Converts to Islam: Growing Cluster and Rising Trend

Research paper thumbnail of States vs. Non-State Actors: Asymmetric Conflict of the 21st Century and Challenges to Military Transformation

Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as ... more Established in 2001, the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) was set up as a Middle East think-tank focusing on military and strategic affairs of the wider region. INEGMA also provides a range of specialist services to clients in government, military, and commercial companies operating in Middle East defense and security, including; Strategy and Risk Management, PR and Marketing Consultancy, and Events Organization. INEGMA is a Free Zone Limited Liability Company based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Beirut, Lebanon. The views expressed in this Special Report are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of INEGMA or any government. Any party interested in quoƟng this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, informaƟon storage and retrieval) may do so on the condiƟon of providing full aƩribuƟon to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.

Research paper thumbnail of Pasdaran Incorporated: Evolving from Revolutionary to Praetorian Guard

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per res... more Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to

Research paper thumbnail of Obsolete Weapons, Unconventional Tactics, and Martyrdom Zeal: How Iran Would Apply Its Asymmetric Naval Warfare Doctrine in a Future Conflict

: This research paper addresses different (e.g. historical, ideological, operational, tactical, t... more : This research paper addresses different (e.g. historical, ideological, operational, tactical, technical) aspects related to the unique asymmetric naval warfare doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and its naval forces. It is based on the assumption that the ruling IRI regime is, so far, undeterred and fully determined to achieve its final goal to get weapons of mass destruction, thus setting the precondition for further dangerous developments which may eventually lead toward direct confrontation with the USA, and perhaps some other state. Research argues that in any kind of a military-type scenario, the naval power of the IRI would play a crucial role in the overall asymmetric response by the Iranians. To support this thesis, the research, particularly reviews and analyzes: *The essence of, and philosophy behind, the Iranian asymmetric warfare strategy (including its part relevant to naval domain), its historical roots and evolution (how the Islamic Revolution, Iran-Iraq...