Influence of Ethno-Religious Identity on Voting Behaviour in 2023 Gubernatorial Election in Lagos State, Nigeria (original) (raw)
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International Journal of Academic and Applied Research , 2021
Identity politics is susceptible to developing plural democracies. Its intensity embellishes in ethno-religious voting orientation in sensitive national elections. On this premise, this discourse argued that ethno-religious voting behaviour was visible in 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. In a methodological sense, the design of the discourse is qualitative in secondary and textual methods of data collection and analysis. The sociological model of voting behaviour was applied to further establish that voter preference is a function of cleavage mobilization and enthusiasm in pursuit of identity interests. The discourse in underscoring the varied intensity of the functionality of ethno-religious voting behaviour in the two successive elections, revealed that the incumbent candidate of PDP won 16 states in the South and 7 in the North and FCT while the frontline opponent candidate of CPC secured a landslide victory in 12 states in the North in 2011 presidential election that witnessed 53.7 percent voter turnout of 73.5 million registered voters occasioned with post-presidential election violence in the North. In 2015 presidential election, the PDP candidate won 12 states in the South and 3 states in the North and FCT while frontline opponent candidate won 16 states in the North and 5 in the South in voter turnout of 43.65 percent from 68.8 million registered voters. These realities amid adverse effects on governance and national development resonates the need for national advocacy, new orientation among other fundamentals to entrench sense of nationhood in the democratization of Nigerian presidential elections.
Journal of Policy and Development Studies , 2023
Scholars have written extensively on the imperatives of identity consciousness on voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential politics and elections. However, there are gaps in depth analysis of ethno-religious identity to explain what inform voter turnout and voting choice of Nigerians across six regions of the federation in three presidential election cycles. In other words, this discourse examines the reality or illusion of ethno-religious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections from a cross sectional analysis. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, the sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposiverandom sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study therefore revealed that many Nigeria voters are most often enthused to participate and vote for frontline candidates and running mates who shared their ethno-religious background amid other intervened influencing factors. Again, there were peculiarities of identity consciousness in voting behaviour across regions of ethno-religious backgrounds in Nigeria presidential elections. The discourse therefore suggest for sense of nationhood, advocacy for national rebirth among other fundamentals to mitigate intense euphoria of ethno-religious consciousness and tensions in power transition.
RELIGION, ETHNICITY AND THE VOTING PATTERN IN NIGERIA (2011 -2015
ABSTRACT Ethnicity has been the bane in Nigerian politics, the structure and substance of politics in the country revolves around it. Since independence, the voting behavior of Nigerians has reflected both ethnic instincts such that in virtually all the elections conducted in the country, the voting pattern has often towed along religious and ethnic lines. During the 2011 and 2015 general elections, the two major presidential candidates that contested, President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), from the southern region, and General Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC), from the Northern region, practically pitched the ethno regional cleavages within the Nigerian electorate against each other. Based on this background, this research looks at ethnicity and voting behaviour in Nigeria with particular focus on the 2011 and 2015 general elections, with the aim of ascertaining if ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections and also to know if uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups influenced the voting behaviour of Nigerians during the 2011-2015 general elections. In the research design, the ex-post factor research design was adopted, while data was collected from secondary sources such as textbooks, journals, official documents, magazines, newspapers unpublished works and online documents. The method of data analysis is the qualitative descriptive method. The theoretical framework adopted for this research is the Rational Choice theory. It is a framework of analysis which assumes that individuals always make prudent logical decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit or satisfaction and that are in their highest self-interest. The findings of the study are briefly summarized as follows; 1 ethnic inclination influenced the choice of candidates during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. 2 uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic group influenced voting behaviour during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The following are the major recommendations made on the findings of the study. First, it advocates that the use of ethnic sentiment during election campaign should be discouraged among politicians. Finally, it recommends extensive political education, good political leadership and transparent elections for Nigeria to overcome the influence ethnicity on her electoral process.
Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 2023
A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 2023
A cursory look at the presidential election in a multi-cleavage country like Nigeria, often reveals a fascinating process replete with identity consciousness and euphoria. Scholarly review illuminates obvious gaps in issues and sentiments of voter environment to establish the functionality of ethnoreligious identity in voting behaviour of Nigerians in presidential elections. This study therefore examines issues underlying ethno-religious identity in the voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Nigeria. The methodology of this discourse is exploratory research design with emphasis on documentary and Key Informant interview as sources of data collection. Thus, sample size of 36 Key Informants were selected from the six regions of the federation through purposive-random sampling procedure and interviewed in face-to-face interaction, telephone communication, Focus Group Discussion etc where responses and empirical data gathered were documented, presented and content-analyzed. The study revealed that voter environments of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections were immersed in varied scale and intensity of ethno-religious consciousness among millions of Nigeria voters which stemmed from the identity background of candidates of frontline political parties. It therefore concluded that many Nigerians are very conscious and interested in the ethno-religious identities of candidates of frontline political parties in a presidential election amid other issues or narratives. Hence, this study therefore recommends citizens' interest in national governance expectations, legitimization of zoning principle, strict enforcement of presidential campaign guidelines amid other fundamentals in effort to strengthen Nigeria's electoral democracy.
2017
The need for political stability and virile democratic culture in Nigeria is a great concern to all Nigerians and the international community. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, several elections have been conducted, but the 2015 election is very significant to us because it exposed the unflinching role of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of different segments of our society. We adopted Rational Choice Theory as our conceptual framework. This paper interrogates the influence of ethnicity and religion in the voting behaviour of the Nigerian electorates and recommends that voting behaviour should be based on party ideology and competence and reputation of the candidates and not ethnicity and religion.
2019
Religion and politics are two very important aspects of human society anywhere in the world. While religion addresses and conditions man's spiritual balance, politics shapes the practice of religion and determine who gets what, when, and how (Lasswell, 1958) in any given political setting. The belief in the supernatural can make people resist any perceived attempt to distort one's religious belief. An attempt to sustain one's religion, on the other hand, can determine the way one acts in the electoral process. In other words, the notion that a favorable polity guarantees the liberty to exercise freely one's religious rituals can influence the attitude and the way people act in deciding who should govern them. Religion and politics have come to be inseparable in man's quest for political power. In some societies, religion has been exploited to promote ascendancy to state power. This study assesses the relationship between religion and voter behavior in Cross River State, Nigeria, and whether religious consideration influenced the voting direction of electorates in 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism and segregate Pentecostalism in Nigeria's religious behavior justifies this study. The research hypothesizes that religious inclination tends not to have a significant effect on the voting pattern in Cross River State. Data was collected through a questionnaire from Christian churches and mosques in five locations in the state. A respondents sample size of 1,000 was got from the five locations covering the three senatorial districts. Data generated were analyzed with frequency count, percentages, and bar charts. The results show that respondents voted along religious lines in 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections. Factors such as adherence to religious principles, pressure from religious superiors, denominational considerations accentuated this behavior. The study recommends, among others, that voter education should be intensified by civil society organizations on the danger of voting along with religious considerations.
Ethnicity, Religion and Party Politics in Nigeria: An Evaluation of the 2023 General Elections
Journal of Public Administration,Policy and Governance Research(JPAPGR), 2024
Since the reintroduction of multiparty democracy in Nigeria in 1999, ethnicity and religion are arguably the most profoundly complex issues that have influenced the electioneering process in the country. This study therefore seeks to find out the extent to which these twin factors influenced the 2023 general elections. It is methodologically structured using qualitative and quantitative methods. Both methods draw their information and data from secondary sources-textbooks, journal articles, publications from international institution, INEC portal, newspapers and internet sources. These were presented in tabular form and analyzed using simple percentages, described and explained within the context of the subject matter under investigations. Discussions were focused under four political parties; APC, PDP, LP and NNPP. In making this choice, the paper recognized the importance of the mandatory 25% constitutional provision as a condition for the declaration of the winner of any presidential elections in the country. The results reveal that ethnicity and religious factors played a role in the voting patterns of Nigerians in certain areas, but the eventual outcome was determined by non-compliance of INEC with electoral laws, weaknesses in opposition parties, and the politicization of the judiciary. Therefore, it recommended that unless these anomalies are strengthened, future presidential elections will continue to be mirage.
JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH, 2019
Religion and politics are two very important aspects of human society anywhere in the world. While religion addresses and conditions man’s spiritual balance, politics shapes the practice of religion and determine who gets what, when and how (Lasswell, 1958) in any given political setting. The belief in the supernatural can make people to resist any perceived attempt to distort one’s religious belief. An attempt to sustain one’s religion on the other hand can determine the way one acts in the electoral process. In other words, the notion that a favourable polity guarantees the liberty to exercise freely one’s religious rituals can influence the attitude and the way people act in deciding who should govern them. Religion and politics have come to be inseparable in man’s quest for political power. In some societies, religion has been exploited to promote ascendancy to state power. This study assesses the relationship between religion and voter behavior in Cross River State, Nigeria and...
Journal of Policy and Development Studies , 2023
Three presidential election cycles in Nigeria's recent history of power transition were respectively replete with interesting trends and dynamics. One of the remarkable was the euphoria of identity consciousness shared in these polls. This discourse therefore examines outcome of 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections with the aim to establish the illusion or reality of ethno-religious voting pattern in government appointments. The methodology of the study is qualitative exploratory design which underscored the import of documentary source and Key Informant Interview (KII) or Process Tracing PT which involves conducting personal interviews and Focus Group Discussion, FGD with knowledgeable person as procedures for data collection. The data collected were textually analyzed and showed a significant correlation between ethno-religious voting pattern of Nigerians and lopsided government appointments after 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections although in different scale. From the findings,