Midterm Election Poll: Florida Governor, DeSantis vs. Gillum (original) (raw)
Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate, has a slight edge in our poll.
But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 737 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be four points different if we polled everyone in the state. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 37724 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
- Andrew Gillum is the mayor of Tallahassee.
- Ron DeSantis is a former representative of Florida's Sixth Congressional District.
- The day after Mr. DeSantis won the Republican primary, he said voters should not “monkey this up” by electing Mr. Gillum. Mr. Gillum, who is black, said, “In the handbook of Donald Trump, they no longer do whistle calls — they’re now using full bullhorns.”
- The race, as a New York Times article put it this week, “reflects the national ideological battle being waged inside their parties — Republicans trying to align themselves with President Trump, and Democrats weighing the appeal of a more progressive message.”
- At a debate Sunday, Mr. DeSantis criticized Mr. Gillum over a continuing F.B.I. investigation into possible corruption at Tallahassee City Hall.
- Mr. DeSantis has been one of the president’s top allies. But at the debate, he did not answer a question about whether Mr. Trump is a good role model for children. Instead, he praised him for moving the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +1 Trump |
|---|---|
| 2012 President | +1 Obama |
How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
If sampling error were the only type of error in a poll, we would expect candidates who trail by four points in a poll of 737 people to win about one out of every eight races. But this probably understates the total error by a factor of two.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Assumptions about who is going to vote may be particularly important in this race.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | — | Gillum +4 |
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | — | Gillum +9 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | — | Gillum +3 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | — | Gillum +8 |
| Every active registered voter | — | Gillum +10 |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | — | DeSantis +1 |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | — | Gillum +2 |
All estimates based on 737 interviews
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter-viewed | Successrate | Ourresponses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 2903 | 71 | 1 in 41 | 10% | 10% |
| 30 to 64 | 20246 | 439 | 1 in 46 | 60% | 54% |
| 65 and older | 9748 | 227 | 1 in 43 | 31% | 36% |
| Male | 13302 | 365 | 1 in 36 | 50% | 46% |
| Female | 19608 | 372 | 1 in 53 | 50% | 54% |
| White | 16065 | 435 | 1 in 37 | 59% | 61% |
| Nonwhite | 15375 | 267 | 1 in 58 | 36% | 33% |
| Cell | 21122 | 521 | 1 in 41 | 71% | — |
| Landline | 11788 | 216 | 1 in 55 | 29% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Gillum +7 |
| Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | Gillum +5 |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Gillum +5 |
| Our estimate | Gillum +4 |
All estimates based on 737 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 8 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.
If they were to break 10 to 3 in favor of Republicans, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or other voters could change their minds.)
Issues and other questions
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 737 | 46% | 47% | 8% |
Who would you like to see control the U.S. Senate?
| Dem. | Rep. | Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 737 | 47% | 44% | 9% |
If the general election were being held today, would you vote yes or no on Florida Amendment 4 that would automatically restore the right to vote for people with prior felony convictions, except those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offence, upon completion of their sentences, including prison, parole and probation? Would you vote yes or no on Amendment 4?
| Yes | No | Don't know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 737 | 60% | 31% | 9% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 370 / 54% of voters | 49% | 40% | 9% |
| Male 362 / 46% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 71 / 10% of voters | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| 30 to 44 125 / 16% | 56% | 32% | 11% |
| 45 to 64 307 / 38% | 42% | 49% | 8% |
| 65 and older 229 / 37% | 45% | 47% | 7% |
Race
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 463 / 66% of voters | 38% | 55% | 7% |
| Black 98 / 12% | 86% | 7% | 7% |
| Hispanic 112 / 15% | 59% | 31% | 7% |
| Asian 9 / 1% | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Other 28 / 4% | 50% | 28% | 16% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 247 / 32% of voters | 69% | 21% | 8% |
| White, college grad 266 / 29% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| White, not college grad 197 / 37% | 33% | 58% | 9% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 105 / 26% of voters | 48% | 41% | 8% |
| Some College Educ. 225 / 34% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| 4-year College Grad. 205 / 23% | 49% | 46% | 4% |
| Post-grad. 181 / 16% | 48% | 44% | 7% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 246 / 34% of voters | 91% | 4% | 5% |
| Republican 229 / 33% | 5% | 91% | 4% |
| Independent 217 / 29% | 48% | 36% | 14% |
| Another party 17 / 2% | 18% | 72% | 10% |
Party registration
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 288 / 39% of voters | 84% | 9% | 6% |
| Republican 289 / 40% | 9% | 82% | 8% |
| Other 155 / 21% | 53% | 33% | 11% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Already voted n = 207 / 30% of voters | 51% | 45% | 2% |
| Almost certain 327 / 45% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Very likely 135 / 18% | 50% | 43% | 8% |
| Somewhat likely 32 / 4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Not very likely 5 / 0% | 13% | 56% | 32% |
| Not at all likely 16 / 1% | 19% | 24% | 47% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- About 1 percent of the voters in our poll said that they would vote for a third-party candidate. They are not shown here.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.24. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.
By Michael Andre, Larry Buchanan, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Richard Harris, Josh Katz, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi, Paul Murray, Adam Pearce, Kevin Quealy, Eden Weingart and Isaac White