Midterm Election Poll: Wisconsin’s 1st District, Steil vs. Bryce (original) (raw)
Bryan Steil, the Republican candidate, has a modest lead in our poll.
Given expectations, our poll is a good result for Republicans. But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 500 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 25479 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
- Randy Bryce is an ironworker, a union activist and an Army veteran. 34% favorable rating; 31% unfavorable; 35% don’t know
Based on 500 interviews - Bryan Steil is a University of Wisconsin regent and a former staffer to House Speaker Paul Ryan. 26% favorable rating; 26% unfavorable; 47% don’t know
Based on 500 interviews - This district is a mix of farmland, industrial towns and the suburbs of Milwaukee.
- Mr. Bryce received a big fund-raising boost after he, and his trademark mustache, gained national attention through a biographical ad.
- Republicans have attacked Mr. Bryce for his lengthy arrest record. He said that two of the arrests were for participating in recent political protests, and that some others, including for driving under the influence, were decades ago. “I've worked very hard to learn from my mistakes,” he said.
- Mr. Steil doesn’t support “Medicare for all,” which is a top issue for Mr. Bryce, who said, “It's more than past due for us to look out for each other.”
Other organizations’ ratings:
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +10 Trump |
|---|---|
| 2012 President | +4 Romney |
| 2016 House | +35 Rep. |
How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
But sampling error is not the only type of error in a poll.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 269k | Steil +8 |
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 281k | Steil +6 |
| Our estimate | 285k | Steil +6 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 286k | Steil +6 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 292k | Steil +7 |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 324k | Steil +4 |
| Every active registered voter | 519k | Steil +8 |
All estimates based on 500 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter-viewed | Successrate | Ourresponses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 831 | 19 | 1 in 44 | 4% | 9% |
| 30 to 64 | 12663 | 261 | 1 in 49 | 52% | 63% |
| 65 and older | 5390 | 148 | 1 in 36 | 30% | 28% |
| Male | 9055 | 225 | 1 in 40 | 45% | 48% |
| Female | 12540 | 275 | 1 in 46 | 55% | 52% |
| White | 16926 | 396 | 1 in 43 | 79% | 79% |
| Nonwhite | 1641 | 26 | 1 in 63 | 5% | 7% |
| Cell | 16110 | 340 | 1 in 47 | 68% | — |
| Landline | 5485 | 160 | 1 in 34 | 32% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, estimated party, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Don’t weight by estimated party, like most public polls | Steil +5 |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Steil +6 |
| Our estimate | Steil +6 |
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Steil +8 |
All estimates based on 500 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 6 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.
They are not numerous enough to change the lead in our poll by themselves. But they — and others — could change their minds. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative.)
Issues and other questions
We’re asking voters here about the Russia investigation. This is House Speaker Paul Ryan’s district, and we want to know how they feel about his handling of the issue.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 53% | 43% | 5% |
Do you support the investigation led by the special counsel Robert Mueller into the Trump campaign’s ties with Russia?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Do you support the House of Representatives filing articles of impeachment against President Trump?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 41% | 56% | 3% |
Do you approve or disapprove of Representative Paul Ryan's handling of Russia-related issues?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 40% | 48% | 12% |
Has President Trump committed federal crimes since declaring his presidential candidacy?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 45% | 50% | 6% |
Do you agree or disagree that the Democrats will try to impeach President Trump if they take control of Congress?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 67% | 27% | 6% |
Is the Russia investigation into allegations of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government a politically motivated witch hunt?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 500 | 51% | 44% | 5% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 275 / 52% of voters | 52% | 42% | 7% |
| Male 225 / 48% | 35% | 59% | 6% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 46 / 10% of voters | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 30 to 44 94 / 20% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| 45 to 64 208 / 41% | 37% | 55% | 8% |
| 65 and older 152 / 28% | 46% | 49% | 4% |
Race
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 447 / 88% of voters | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Nonwhite 44 / 10% | 61% | 36% | 3% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 44 / 10% of voters | 61% | 36% | 3% |
| White, college grad 201 / 34% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| White, not college grad 246 / 54% | 40% | 53% | 7% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 89 / 27% of voters | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Some College Educ. 191 / 35% | 37% | 56% | 7% |
| 4-year College Grad. 131 / 24% | 42% | 51% | 6% |
| Post-grad. 86 / 14% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 137 / 27% of voters | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| Republican 169 / 34% | 4% | 91% | 5% |
| Independent 169 / 34% | 47% | 44% | 10% |
| Another party 18 / 3% | 31% | 54% | 15% |
Estimated party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 61 / 11% of voters | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| Republican 138 / 33% | 29% | 63% | 8% |
| Other 301 / 57% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain n = 298 / 59% of voters | 44% | 53% | 3% |
| Very likely 150 / 32% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Somewhat likely 29 / 5% | 41% | 44% | 14% |
| Not very likely 12 / 2% | 18% | 43% | 39% |
| Not at all likely 6 / 1% | 32% | 53% | 15% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.17. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.
By Michael Andre, Larry Buchanan, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Richard Harris, Josh Katz, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi, Paul Murray, Adam Pearce, Kevin Quealy, Eden Weingart and Isaac White