Midterm Election Poll: Iowa’s 1st District, Blum vs. Finkenauer (original) (raw)
Abby Finkenauer, the Democratic candidate, leads our poll.
Our poll is a good result for Democrats. It’s just one poll, though.
Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 17716 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answer
To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
- Abby Finkenauer is a state representative and a former congressional page. 43% favorable rating; 26% unfavorable; 31% don’t know
Based on 502 interviews - Rod Blum is the incumbent, first elected in 2014, and a former businessman. 35% favorable rating; 53% unfavorable; 12% don’t know
Based on 502 interviews - This district backed Barack Obama twice by double digits, then Donald J. Trump won it by four points.
- Mr. Blum, a software entrepreneur from Dubuque, has emphasized his bootstrap origins: His mother cleaned houses for a living, and his father left school in 10th grade. He identifies as a Tea Party Republican, and is considered a member of the House Freedom Caucus.
- Iowa relies on global trade, and a trade war could be a problem for Mr. Blum. “I’m not on the ledge ready to jump out the window concerning trade, but I do have the window open a little bit,” he said.
- Ms. Finkenauer, 29, who was elected to the Iowa Legislature in 2014, has focused on pro-labor policies and on protecting women’s health and reproductive rights. She and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have a chance to be the first women under 30 elected to Congress.
Other organizations’ ratings:
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +4 Trump |
|---|---|
| 2012 President | +14 Obama |
| 2016 House | +8 Rep. |
How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
But sampling error is not the only type of error in a poll.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 245k | Finkenauer +25 |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 286k | Finkenauer +11 |
| Our estimate | 306k | Finkenauer +14 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 314k | Finkenauer +13 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 318k | Finkenauer +15 |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 367k | Finkenauer +12 |
| Every active registered voter | 472k | Finkenauer +14 |
All estimates based on 502 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter-viewed | Successrate | Ourresponses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 1755 | 42 | 1 in 42 | 8% | 9% |
| 30 to 64 | 9694 | 287 | 1 in 34 | 57% | 57% |
| 65 and older | 3792 | 173 | 1 in 22 | 34% | 34% |
| Male | 6706 | 200 | 1 in 34 | 40% | 47% |
| Female | 8536 | 302 | 1 in 28 | 60% | 53% |
| White | 12598 | 419 | 1 in 30 | 83% | 83% |
| Nonwhite | 727 | 21 | 1 in 35 | 4% | 5% |
| Cell | 9972 | 286 | 1 in 35 | 57% | — |
| Landline | 5270 | 216 | 1 in 24 | 43% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Finkenauer +19 |
| Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | Finkenauer +18 |
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Finkenauer +15 |
| Our estimate | Finkenauer +14 |
All estimates based on 502 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for.
They are not numerous enough to change the lead in our poll by themselves. But they — and others — could change their minds. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative.)
Issues and other questions
We're asking voters whether they support the North American Free Trade agreement (Nafta), President Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the tax bill. We also asked if they felt the president’s policies had improved their economic situation.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 39% | 55% | 6% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 40% | 49% | 11% |
Do you support the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 59% | 29% | 12% |
Do you support or oppose the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump this year?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 36% | 55% | 10% |
Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?
| Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Do you agree or disagree that President Trump’s policies have made you and your family’s economic situation better?
| agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?
| support | oppose | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 502 | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 302 / 53% of voters | 57% | 29% | 14% |
| Male 200 / 47% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 42 / 9% of voters | 55% | 39% | 6% |
| 30 to 44 97 / 20% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| 45 to 64 190 / 37% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| 65 and older 173 / 35% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
Race
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 453 / 90% of voters | 52% | 37% | 11% |
| Nonwhite 31 / 7% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 31 / 7% of voters | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| White, college grad 180 / 34% | 55% | 37% | 7% |
| White, not college grad 273 / 56% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 104 / 27% of voters | 50% | 37% | 14% |
| Some College Educ. 196 / 34% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| 4-year College Grad. 120 / 26% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Post-grad. 77 / 11% | 56% | 36% | 7% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 178 / 33% of voters | 91% | 3% | 5% |
| Republican 121 / 27% | 7% | 86% | 7% |
| Independent 185 / 36% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Another party 9 / 2% | 54% | 46% | — |
Party registration
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 201 / 36% of voters | 92% | 4% | 5% |
| Republican 159 / 34% | 14% | 74% | 12% |
| Other 142 / 30% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain n = 294 / 60% of voters | 57% | 36% | 7% |
| Very likely 129 / 27% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Somewhat likely 41 / 7% | 36% | 40% | 24% |
| Not very likely 18 / 3% | 28% | 40% | 32% |
| Not at all likely 15 / 2% | 26% | 34% | 39% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.13. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.
By Michael Andre, Larry Buchanan, Matthew Bloch, Jeremy Bowers, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Richard Harris, Josh Katz, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi, Paul Murray, Adam Pearce, Kevin Quealy, Eden Weingart and Isaac White