Currency Exchange Rates Research Papers (original) (raw)

This study aimed to examine the effect of Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)), the exchange rate, and interest rates on stock prices of mining companies listed in Indonesia stock Exchange. This research is associative with quantitative approach. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The data used is secondary data such as financial data, and the percentage of monthly interest rates over the last three years. The collection of data taken with documentation techniques derived from published reports of Bank Indonesia and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling was done by purposive sampling with the number nine companies. The results showed that the CSPI and interest rates but not significant positive effect on stock prices. The rupiah exchange rate and significant negative effect on stock prices. Simultaneously the composite stock price index, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices of mining compani...

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- Business, Indonesian Studies, Indonesia, Interest Rates

Currently, there is a need for reform of global monetary circulation and credit, which in a sense has stalled. The key is to restore the connection between monetary circulation and real production. In the first part of this study, I provide a brief analysis of the catastrophic consequences that the current design of reserve currencies has led to for the world economy. At the same time, the transition from the dollar to other reserve currencies operating on the same principles, the ethos of which is now being actively promoted in the West, will not improve the situation. In the second part, I demonstrate the efforts being made to de-dollarize settlements by both the BRICS, the EU, and the EAEU countries. The third part shows the successful historical experience of the transferable ruble as an international currency that functioned in 1960-1980 on non-discriminatory principles within the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). In the fourth part, the international currencies already functioning in the world are described, as well as some existing proposals for the introduction of new international currencies. I argue that reliable physical access to reserves in basic food and medicines in controlled warehouses is becoming a matter of great importance. The transition is necessary from the ideology of reserve currencies to the ideology of reserves of critical goods. Such an incentive of a new BRICS currency on the demand side will be food and healthcare security. On the supply side, for all states that have established a currency, there should be a clear vision of how they can develop their exports using this currency. In order to secure currency, such goods must be pledged to international BRICS warehouses that correspond to the main export directions of the project countries and/or are critical for their import. These are basic foods such as grains, then medicines, fuel and energy resources, and metals.

This study probes the effects of the currency swap agreement between the Nigerian government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Chinese government through the People's Bank of China (PBC). The objectives of this paper are to define the concepts of currency swap, review relevant literature, and analyze its policy implication on the Nigerian economy. The Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement (BLCSA) between the CBN and the PBC, aims to achieve foreign exchange stability and hedge the naira from volatility both in the short and long run of each business cycle. The literature reviewed suggests the BLCSA would eliminate the unnecessary rigors involved in trade between Nigeria and China businesses and reduce the demand of the United States (US) dollar. Although a step in the right direction, this solution is a temporary fix when a permanent solution is needed. The study's recommendations will elicit the necessary responses from the CBN, PBC, stakeholders, China, and Nigeria government on the benefits of the BLCSA *

- by Ejiro U . Osiobe
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- China, China studies, Nigeria, Cost-Benefit Analysis

The underlying assumption to this essay was that local political events cause volatility in the local financial markets. This view was supported by a literature overview showing that many studies have identified local political events as one important driver of volatility in stock markets and currency markets.
An analysis for South Africa and its political events from the last three years, identified whether these coincided with usual values in the stock market or the currency market. In reverse, it also identified which dates marked unusual values and mapped the political events.
The event study for South Africa, from December 2015 until today, showed that in both markets volatility was at above average on nearly all “negative news days” and these days were also marked by poor currency performance. “Positive news days” were always met with positive currency developments and also with above average currency volatility. In some occasions, especially with “positive news days”, a time lag was visible where market values improved one or two days after the announcement. The stock market prices, however, did not fall in line with the news indications across the entire period.
In both volatility analyses, for the currency exchange values and for All Share Index prices, only very few key events could be mapped to outstanding volatilities. Only one event can be identified to mark high volatility values across both markets: The multiple firing of Finance Ministers in December 2015, known as Nenegate. This was the first event in a series of what became known as “State Capture”, however, later events were not met with the same level of corresponding volatility.
An analysis of the weakest Rand values over the given period identifies some coinciding events, especially the negative update on reduced growth expectations by the World Bank in February 2016, seems to link to a significant drop in the Rand value. It appears that the currency reacted very positively to the recent leadership changes beginning in December 2017 – top peaks of the Rand coincide with the ANC leadership change and the presidency handover.
Little coincidence was identified between All Share Index price and political event dates. This leaves to conclude that out of all the measures reviewed against political events, the weakest link can be found in the All Share Index prices. All other indicators considered, especially exchange rate volatility and absolute Rand values, it can be concluded that political events affect South Africa’s markets overall. However, the recent drop in the Rand value caused by the US-initiated Trade War and the Turkey crisis, reminds that South Africa is particularly vulnerable to U.S. American economic policy changes. Therefore, fixing local politics, creating stability and boosting investor confidence is important, however, creating a less vulnerable financial market by attracting more direct investment as opposed to portfolio investment, will be equally important for South Africa’s economic future.

Compare and contrast interest rate parity (IRP), purchasing power parity (PPP), and the international Fisher effect (IFE).
1. Based on PPP theory, what is a general forecast of the values of currencies in countries with high inflation?
2. How is it possible for PPP to hold if the IFE does not? (Benedictine, n.d.).
Forward rates for currencies are determined by the market forces of supply and demand. “In some cases, the forward rate may be priced at a level that allows investors to engage in arbitrage. Their actions will affect the volume of orders for forward purchases or forward sales of a particular currency, which in turn will affect the equilibrium forward rate. Arbitrage will continue until the forward rate is aligned where it should be, and at that point arbitrage will no longer be feasible” (Madura, 2012, p. 216). When arbitrage no longer is feasible; IRP (Interest Rate Parity) exists between the two countries whose currencies are being exchanged. “In equilibrium, the forward rate differs from the spot rate by a sufficient amount to offset the interest rate differential between the two currencies” (Madura, 2012, p. 220).

- by susor mark
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- Business, Economics, International Economics, Monetary Economics

Inflation is defined as a persistent increase in general price level of goods and services. Even
though Ethiopia has experienced a low inflation until 2002/3, recently, double digit inflation has
become troublesome for policy makers as well as the society. Therefore, this study was carried
out to identify the major determinants of inflation in Ethiopia by employing the techniques of
Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for 32 years’ data starting from 1987/88 to
2018/19. The study included macroeconomic determinants and non-economic factor that alter
inflation level measured by consumer price index such as, real gross domestic product, nominal
exchange rate, broad money supply, external debt, foreign aid, tariff rate and dummy for
political stability. The results of bounds test confirmed that there is a long run relationship
between the explanatory variables and consumer price index in Ethiopia. The empirical result
implied evidence of a long-run positive and significant (p-value<0.05) effect of nominal
exchange rate, broad money supply, external debt and foreign aid with coefficients 1.130896,
1.980892, 1.641140 and 2.513185, respectively on inflation in Ethiopia whereas real gross
domestic product and dummy of political stability significantly (p-value<0.05) and negatively
affect price level with coefficients -5.371298 and -3.698385, respectively in the long run. Finally,
from the finding of the study in the short run, broad money supply and external debt has positive
and significant (p-value<0.05) effect on inflation in Ethiopia with coefficients 0.292621 and
0.1699, respectively. Real gross domestic product and dummy for political stability are also the
main significant (p-value<0.05) determinants of inflation with negative coefficients (I.e. -
0.793457 and -0.495005, respectively) in the short run. Given these findings, the monetary policy
should be planned to maintain price stability by controlling the growth of money supply and
devaluation of the domestic currency in the economy. Also combined efforts should be made by
policy makers to increase the supply of output so as to reduce the prices of goods and services
and there should be democratic political discussions among the political parties to reduce the
political conflicts and instabilities.

- by kahsay hagos
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- Global Governance, Inflation Theory, Politics, Foreign Aid

a. Five factor that need to be considered in determining the functional currency of a foreign operation. 1. The currency that mainly influence the entity's sale prices and services. It is the currency in which its sale prices are denominated and settled. 2. The currency of the country whose competitive forces and regulations mainly determine the sale prices of the entity's goods and services. 3. The currency that mainly influence labour, material and other costs of providing the entity's goods and services. 4. The currency in which funds for financing are generated. 5. The currency in which receipts from operations are retained. 6. Whether the operations of the foreign operation are carried out as an extension of the parent or the foreign operation operates with a significant level of autonomy. If it is an extension of the parent then the functional currency is the same as that of the parent. For example, the subsidiary obtains all material from the parent and sells them and remits the proceeds to the parent. b. Determine with justification, the most appropriate method to be used in translating the financial statements of Oncidum Plc in accordance with MFRS 121, The effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates. The most appropriate method to be used are Translating from Foreign to Functional Currency. The financial statement of Oncidum Pls which will be prepared in a foreign currency will be translated into the functional currency which will be the currency of the parent that is Choco Bhd. A foreign operation whose functional currency is that of the parent but prepares the financial statement in its local currency (OMR) has to translate its financial statements into the functional currency. The translation of the financial statements could be done by foreign operation of by the parent that is Choco Bhd. All item in the financial statements are translated as if all the transaction of the foreign operations had been entered by the parent. This is because the foreign entity is viewed as as extension of the parent. Therefore the exchange rates used to translate the various items will be those ruling on the date of the original transaction.

- by Farihan Khalid
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- Currency Exchange Rates, Exchange Rates

The Mars 360 social/financial theory takes aspects related to an individual's astrological Mars placement-according to how it is explained in "The Mars 360 Religious and Social System", and has it displayed within a social environment, and combines that with the aspect of buying and selling within that framework. This means that in order for this currency system to work, a person has to believe that Mars influences human beings. And one does not have to call it faith-based. It can simply be hypothesis-based or theory-based, no different than how quantum theory is fostered in the scientific community. This currency system is similar to how private currencies are issued within local communities to encourage spending and economic development within that community. As a contingency plan in the case of obtuseness toward the impact of inflation, a small community would develop as a scientific study. Within that community, each person would calculate where Mars was at the time they were born according to the framework laid out in the book "The Mars 360 Religious and Social System" which divides the astrology chart into 6 sections. The community would then see to it that the individual's rights under their own Mars influence is not violated....meaning that the characteristics associated with the negative Mars influence (according to where it's positioned in the chart) would be allowed some healthy expression(healthy meaning enough to where humans can still co-exist). Mars is responsible for negative habits dispersed amongst the 6 possible positions: 1. poor face-to-face communication/interaction 2. hyperactivity/reckless thoughts 3. debauchery 4. hyper-opinionated/cultural bias 5. laziness/disobedience and 6. introversion/sillyness. The reason the idea of an outward display of Mars's position in an individual's birthchart is presented is because it would precipitate "understanding," allowing people to prepare or know in advance how to deal with the individual and vice versa without having to go through any extended learning phase, which oftentimes gives rise to contention.

- by Anthony Moore (Anthony of Boston)
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- Currency Exchange Rates

This study applied the Index of Institutional Quality (IQ) methodology to measure the level of independence of the Reserve Bank of Malawi (central bank) and examine its impact on inflation. The IQ methodology assesses independence of central banks based on their actual practices. The methodology is suitable for developing countries whose practices do not fully conform to the laws of Banks that are in place. The study finds that the average independence index of the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) is 15.1, which is more than half below the total index value of 36. This clearly shows that the RBM is not convincingly independent. Although the results show an above-average value for index of monetary policy independence, indications are that the RBM is not free from political pressures as evidenced by below-average values for indices of political and fiscal independence. Using Ordinary Least Square (OLS), the results further show that the low degree of independence by the RBM has contributed to high inflation in Malawi.

En este documento se expone la relación teórica de la tasa de interés con la paridad cambiaria en base al modelo Mundell-Fleming y al Enfoque de Activos. Así mismo, se presenta un análisis empírico en base a un modelo econométrico para el caso Mexicano con tipo de cambio nominal, tratando de analizar ambas variables bajo el esquema Ortodoxo de Mundell-Fleming y Krugman.
This paper exposes the theoretical relationship between the interest rate and the foreign Exchange parity, based in the exposure of the Mundell-Fleming Model and the Asset Approach. Then an econometric model is exposed in orther to present an applied analysis to the Mexican case, showing the relation between the 28 days Mexican bond rate, Cetes, and the currency rate FIX, in orther to analyze the Orthodox conception of the Mundell-Fleming model and the Krugman Asset approach.

- by Gabriel Himelfarb
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- Monetary Economics, Macroeconomics, Macroeconometrics, Financial Markets
- by Najaf Haider
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- Money, Currency Exchange Rates, Small change, Cowries, Almonds, History of money

Purpose-The paper seeks to investigate the ability of the Islamic Gold Dinar to hedge against two well-established foreign exchange (FX) risk factors namely, the dollar risk factor and global FX volatility innovations. Methodology-The paper uses a combination of the Markowitz (1952) portfolio optimisation, visual data representations and the classic Fama-Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings-The findings show that the Islamic Gold Dinar can serve as a hedge against market volatility, outperforms a diversified currency portfolio, and through its inclusions into the diversified currency portfolio, improve said portfolio's ability to hedge against market volatility. Research limitations-Due to the spread of the sample, country-specific factors could not be taken into account. Practical implications-The Islamic Gold Dinar is a cost-efficient, cost-effective, and Shariah-compliant instrument that provides a solid hedge for investors and/or firms that have financial positions denominated in foreign currencies. Should these investors or firms find it costly to maintain a Dinar-only portfolio, including the Dinar into their currency portfolios also provides the same benefit, albeit at a lower magnitude. Originality / value-This study is timely as the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) has recently for the first time recognised gold as a Shariah-compliant investment. The findings of this study provide the first look as to how investors and firms can benefit through the use of the Islamic Gold Dinar in their risk management practices.

- by Calvin Cheong
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- Risk Management, Islamic Finance, Currency Exchange Rates, Gold Standard

The chapter deals with the development and growing regulations of the credit markets in Europe and to a lesser extent in the Ottoman Middle East at the end of the 18th and beginning of the 19th centuries. The aim was to achieve a more... more

- by Elena FRANGAKIS-SYRETT
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- Ottoman History, Textiles, Maritime History, International Trade

Government Influence on Exchange Rates

- by Samson Sumba
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- Economics, Currency Exchange Rates

Курс рубля к европейским валютам. 1814-1914

Currency trading has a long history and can be traced back to the ancient Middle East and Middle Ages when foreign exchange started to take shape after the international merchant bankers devised bills of exchange, which were transferable... more

- by Forex Pips Signal
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- Forex, Forex Investing, Forex Trading Systems, Currency Exchange Rates

The international role of the US dollar is deeply entrenched. To change that, Europe-and Germany in particular-would need to rethink some core economic policies. The dominance of the US dollar is a standing provocation to those who envision a more significant role for the EU in world affairs. The European economy is comparable in size and sophistication to the US economy, but its currency, the euro, plays second fiddle. For a long time, the dollar's dominance did not seem to matter much. It did bring the US major benefits: cheap and almost limitless funding for its government, firms and consumers; and the ability to impose effective international sanctions, as the dollar's dominance meant that no firm could violate them without risking major fines. But the US was not exploiting those advantages at the expense of Europe. Now the Trump administration is weaponising economic policy, making the euro's standing in global markets a question of foreign policy, rather than simply of economics. But the ambition to give the euro a greater role in global markets faces huge economic and political obstacles. Not only is the dollar's role in the world economy deeply entrenched. The policy changes that would bring about the conditions necessary for growing the euro's role-an ample supply of European safe assets and a European Central Bank (ECB) that recognises its worldwide responsibilities-would meet fierce resistance, especially in Berlin. Likewise, the consequences of increased global demand for the euro would challenge some of the eurozone's core policies.

- by Christian Odendahl
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- Finance, Economics, Currency Exchange Rates, Reserve Currency

The current study updates the question about the relation of Chinese currency with its major trading partner currencies. The study revolves to analyze the Chinese exchange rates. It is assumed that Chinese Yuan have a major relation with US Dollar and in order to find out such impact, around 2060 observations have been used and Dickey Fuller Unit root test has been applied in order to find out the trend and checked non-stationary at several levels. After that Multiple Regression had been applied on stationary observations. Finally result revealed that US Dollar and Japanese Yen have a significantly relation with Chinese Yuan whereas Euro and Great Britain Pound are not having significantly relation. It was also found that Chinese Yuan let itself change due to some internal factors.

- by M Usman Kamal
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- Economics, International Economics, Econometrics, Financial Economics
- by Марта Чечерницька
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- Marketing, Mathematics, Economics, Monetary Economics

Devaluation is a modern monetary policy tool used by countries with fixed exchange rate or managed exchange rate system to cautiously lower the value of its’ currency against a referenced currency, usually a major currency, group of currencies or standard. It is an economic tool used to combat trade imbalances. In developed economies, currencies are devalued to encourage exports, and discourage imports. This indicates that locally made goods and services become cheaper for foreign buyers, while foreign goods and services become expensive for local buyers. Similarly, economists see devaluation as a means to protect indigenous manufacturers from unhealthy competition from foreign rivals. However, local producers may become less efficient as a result of lack of competition/pressure from foreign producers.

While it is early to mourn the euro, it would be unwise to ignore the magnitude and significance of the changes now taking place in the Eurozone. No doubt, the economic and financial problems in the Eurozone are serious and plentiful. The area is in the midst of multiple, frequently overlapping and mutually reinforcing crises. First, a fiscal crisis is centred
in Greece but visible across the southern Eurozone and Ireland. Governments in Greece and Italy have been replaced in the space of a week because they were unable to guarantee the
rapid implementation of economic reforms. Second, a competitiveness crisis is manifest in large and persistent pre-crisis current-account deficits in the Eurozone periphery and even larger intra-Eurozone current-account imbalances. Italy has accepted IMF and EU monitoring of reforms including deep liberalisation measures that had so far seemed out of reach, notably on labour legislation. Third, a banking crisis was first evident in Ireland but is now spreading throughout the Eurozone via accelerating concerns over sovereign solvencies. Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece are undertaking fiscal and structural adjustment measures – in Ireland, these are already paying off in terms of economic performance and credibility. However, one of the fascinating aspects of the European debt crisis has been the resilience of the euro, suggesting
these fears are overblown. The euro is still a reserve currency, oblivious to the chaos ravaging European economies. As the Euro zone debt crisis enters a new uncertain year, the
question about whether the euro can survive rises. This paper argues that the European crisis is political, and even largely presentational. The paper shows that the Euro can survive as the policymakers in the Eurozone still have various tools to use. These tools include creating exit rules, implementing new stabilisation rules and instruments, adopting new fiscal policy, introducing conditional Eurobonds, using inflation differentials and providing more independence to the European Central Bank.

- by Jamal Ibrahim Haidar
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- Business, Entrepreneurship, Industrial And Labor Relations, Management

This paper presents the research results on the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) on Indian firm performance. The analysis is based on a multivariate regression model, for the time period from 1 Dec 2011 to 1 Dec 2012 for the top 242 Indian firms of Bombay Stock Market. Our empirical analysis reveals that significant relationships between real effective exchange rate (REER) changes (fluctuations) and firm performance indexes through changes imports as well as foreign exchange liabilities sector. The impact size of imports indexes is different so that stores and spares imports and capital goods imports are more effective than other imports indexes to firm performance. The firm performance indexes such as growth performance (internal growth), profitability (EBIT), firm specifics (Capacity Utilization), and stock performance (P/E) have an obvious relationship to the changes of imports, foreign currency borrowings and total forex spending indexes. Other indexes that decrease the effect changes in exchange rate have on Indian firms include: bigger (P/E) ratio and higher internal growth rate. We also found a weak relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and stock price per book value, stock price per sales, total assets value/shares outstanding and degree of operating leverage.

- by Mo Nagahi and +1
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- Economics, Mumbai, India, International Finance, Stock Market

- by Mo Nagahi
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- Finance, Economics, Econometrics, Accounting

The recent shocks in demand and supply caused by Covid-19 influence and the current depreciation of the Georgian Lari (GEL) reduced the trust of economic agents in currency. There is no objective macroeconomic reason that would change their attitude to the future of currency for the better. Depreciation of a currency impacts all the components of GDP, leading to myriad problems in economic growth. The depreciation of the national currency is generally perceived as positively affecting the country's export. The study analyzes the impact of Georgian Lari's exchange rate depreciation on Georgia's export using monthly GEL exchange rate data from May 2006 to April 2020. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for its advantages of measuring cointegration, usefulness in the small samples, and being unbiased in measuring a long-run relationship between variables. Outcomes indicate that the exchange rate depreciation has an inverse long-run impact on export in the long-run period. The exchange rate impact on Georgia's export shows inelastic demand for Georgia's export goods. The study contributes to the literature while providing the implication of currency depreciation on exports of the Georgian economy. The estimated value of the exchange rate has been found to exert no direct pressure on the amount of export. In the paper, possible reasons for such implications are also examined. Paper found that the control variable interest rate also has an inverse impact on Georgia's export performance in the long-run as well as in the short-run. International reserves positively influence the export in the long-run with a high significance level. The paper also discusses possible ways of stabilization of national currency.

- by Vyacheslav Dodonov
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- Integration, Currency Exchange Rates

Öz Bu çalışmada, 2005:01-2019:12 döneminde BİST Sınai Endeksi ile döviz kuru arasındaki olası ilişkinin, yapısal kırılmaları modellemede birbirinden farklı yaklaşımlar kullanan eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılarak araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Serilerin durağanlık düzeyleri; ADF (1979; 1981), Narayan ve Popp (2010) ile Enders ve Lee (2012) tarafından geliştirilen Fourier ADF birim kök testleri kullanılarak tespit edilmektedir. Seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler; ARDL sınır testi, iki yapısal kırılmalı Hatemi-J (2008) eşbütünleşme testi ve Tsong vd. (2016) tarafından önerilen Fourier eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmektedir. ARDL ve Hatemi-J (2008) test sonuçları, BİST Sınai Endeksi ile döviz kuru arasında uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunmadığına işaret etmektedir. Ancak, söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri bilinmeyen formda ve sayıda yapısal kırılmayı dikkate alarak inceleyen Fourier eşbütünleşme testinden elde edilen ampirik bulgu, BİST Sınai Endeksi ile döviz kuru değişkenlerinin eşbütünleşik olduklarını göstermektedir. Son olarak, DOLS yöntemi ile hesaplanan ve değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi yansıtan katsayıya göre; döviz kurunun BİST Sınai endeksi üzerinde uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Abstract This paper aims to analyze the possible relationship between BIST Industrial Index and currency exchange rate by various cointegration tests using different approaches in modelling structural break(s), covering 2005:01-2019:12. The stationarity of series are tested by ADF (1979; 1981) unit root test, Narayan and Popp (2010) unit root test, and Fourier unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012). Besides, the cointegration relationship between the series is tested by ARDL bound test, Hatemi-J (2008) cointegration test with two structural breaks and Fourier cointegration test introduced by Tsong et al. (2016). ARDL and Hatemi-J (2008) test results show that there is no long-run pattern of cointegration between BIST Industrial Index and currency exchange rate. However, results of Fourier cointegration test that yields efficient findings irrespective of the number and the form of breaks conclude the existence of cointegration Makale Gönderme Tarihi

The euro crisis forces us to completely rethink European monetary policy. The European Central Bank’s policy of buying back sovereign debt does not address the real problem: it is only a way of propping up a system that has already failed. A structural response to the crisis would consist of giving states back the power to act, but in a way that would not destroy the monetary union. This paper suggest a way in which, while preserving the Eurozone, each state would put into circulation in its own territory a comple-mentary currency guaranteed by tax revenue and pegged to the euro, what we call a “fiscal currency”. This parallel currency would be a “popular” currency, issued as bills in small denominations and intended for day-to-day purchases. The euro would continue to be used for large transactions, transactions occurring at the European level, and for savings.
The kind of monetary federalism we propose would end the private banking system’s monopoly on currency issuance. Alongside a common currency regulated by European monetary authorities, it would create complementary national currencies subject to individual governments. At the same time, it would offer a response to the current crisis, though its scope is not limited to the problems afflicting the Eurozone’s “peripheral” countries.
More fundamentally, we affirm that a currency’s organizing principles must be consistent with a political community’s foundational values. In the case of the European Union, the goal is to transpose onto monetary policy the old maxim “unity in diversity” and to recognize monetary policy as a tool that must be available to a sovereign people to ensure its survival.
A decentralized fiscal currency—whether it be national, re-gional, or local, as it is perfectly possible to envisage several levels of issuance, providing they are backed up by anticipated fiscal revenue—is first of all a form of short-term credit that is cheaper than credit offered by financial mar-kets. But its goals could also be more ambitious: it can be designed as a full-fledged means of payments, a currency that permanently circulates through the local economy alongside the euro. To this end, it must be accepted by the population, and its implementation must be negotiated with the private sector. To do so, the government must actively build trust in the new currency and ensure its convertibility into euros.
The third goal of a fiscal currency is to force states to pursue more responsible fiscal and financial policies. When a supe-rior federal currency exists, a state issuing its own means of payment has every interest in maintaining its value: inflationary policies would reduce the value of its own future revenue and undermine its credibility and thus viability by increasing its dependence on federal authorities.
The need for internal convertibility and the defense of euro parity distinguishes our proposal from other ideas that have been recently advanced in the European debate, notably relating to the crisis in Greece, where a parallel currency would be devalued as soon as it was established.
Creating a parallel fiscal currency and defending its parity are challenging but feasible political actions, as several international political experiments indicate. Ultimately, it is an attempt to reform public governance in the midst of a crisis of confidence in the usual procedures of neoliberal “good governance.” Its success depends on the capacity of issuing authorities to win the trust of their populations: a fiscal currency issued by a state or local government must be seen as legitimate as the euro itself.

- by Bruno Théret
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- European Studies, Monetary Economics, European Politics, European Union

The authors would like to express their appreciation and gratitude to the two anonymous reviewers for their remarks and suggestions for further broadening of the research topic. While we followed all their positive remarks and suggestions of improvement of the present study, due to the limits of extent and substantial frames of the study, we could implement only a part of their valuable suggestions for extending the study for further directions. Abstract Successive crises and shifts in geopolitics necessitate a more coherent Europe, with the euro as a key instrument, yet the enlargement of the euro area is unfinished. The paper reconstructs diverging trends in non-EA countries, and considers the motivations of key stakeholders in countries without commitment to enter. The approach applied is dual: we reconsider economic arguments of a currency reform and conduct political economy analysis with the underlying hypothesis that euro adoption, for businesses, is a cost/ben-efit issue, while for governments, parties, and voters it is a sovereignty issue with cost/benefit aspects attached. The authors conclude that macroeconomic and business considerations would support Eurozone entry in all CEE countries concerned. As for key stakeholders, society and the business community support the euro, but particular government interests are at stake. Post-pandemic realities would reconfirm rational arguments for euro entry; to make that happen, economic nationalist and state developmental concepts need be discarded.

En este trabajo elaboramos un ejercicio de modelización microeconómica de la
sustitución de importaciones. Nos centramos en el caso de las importaciones agropecuarias porque en este tipo de bienes es más fácil aceptar el supuesto de perfecta sustituibilidad entre producción interna e importaciones, que en el caso de los productos industriales. Asimismo, planteamos algunas cuestiones acerca de las opciones de política económica de un gobierno que pretenda acometer una agenda de sustitución de importaciones.

Purpose: This study seeks to examine the properties of four major cryptocurrencies and how they can be used as a simpler alternative mode of hedging foreign exchange risks as compared to existing mainstream financial risk management techniques. Methodology: This study uses a combination of visual data representations and the classic Fama-Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings: The findings show that cryptocurrencies can be a more effective hedge against foreign exchange risks as compared to other common hedging instruments and/or techniques such as gold or a diversified currency portfolio. Limitations: The conclusions were arrived at based only on a small group of cryptocurrency i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or ZCash might exhibit different properties. Implications: Cryptocurrencies can be cost-effective and cost-efficient instruments that provide a solid hedge for investors and/or firms that are exposed to global foreign exchange volatility. Its ease of trade and virtually zero barriers to entry makes it an easily accessible alternative hedge instrument as compared to more complex items such as derivatives. Originality: If cryptocurrencies are to be accepted into mainstream usage, a detailed examination of its various uses is necessary. In particular, as they are often touted to be the future of currency, its properties and price behaviour relative to other mainstream financial instruments need to be well-understood, not only by finance professionals but laypersons as well.

- by Calvin Cheong
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- Currency Exchange Rates, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Currency Risk Management

My post-doctoral project, Trapezites, is a standard online currency conversion website designed to convert from one ancient currency to another, accompanied by information about purchasing power in antiquity. Determining historical exchange rates and purchasing power is a notorious problem and requires the careful study of many different types of evidence. Users will be able to rapidly access results that would otherwise require a long slog through the literature. The nature of the evidence – literary, epigraphic, numismatic – will be specified. This website will help the public understand ancient money and will provide a serious research tool for archaeologists, numismatists, and Classicists.

- by Giuseppe Carlo Castellano
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- Ancient History, Classical Archaeology, Economics, Classics

Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their currencies in the short and
the long-run against major currencies of the world, which cannot be over emphasized, most especially against the US dollar. Insomuch that, if some of these emerging economies can be successfully transmitted
into full development, it would be a good model for other emerging economies and the world at large.
Design/methodology/approach – A hybrid model (portfolio shift model) proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b) is extended to analyze a data set of every quarter of an hour currency order flow and currency
exchange rate fluctuations of Thai Baht (THB) against the US$ for the period of six years (January 2010 to December 2015). To reflect the pressure of currency excess demand, the authors construct a measure of currency order flow in the Thailand currency exchange market. Vector autoregression model is applied to estimate the effectual role of currency order flow in the determination of exchange rate for the THB against the US$.
Findings – Currency order flow indeed accounted for a sizeable and significant portion of the fluctuations in the THB and the US$ exchange rate.
Originality/value – Insomuch that, the results show that currency order flow has significant explanatory power in the emerging markets economy to capture the THB exchange rate variability, and it then brings to the attention of the Thailand Monetary Authority the importance that should be attached to the market microstructure.
Keywords: Currency exchange market, Currency exchange rate, Currency order flow, Market microstructure

- by Abolaji D Anifowose and +2
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- Market Microstructure, International Finance, Currency Exchange Rates
- by Tina Nemarnik
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- Currency Exchange Rates

Using signal extraction, this study identifies leading indicators of financial crisis over the period 1980-2015 in developing and advanced economies. The study evaluates vulnerability in the external, public and financial sector in developing countries. The results postulate that the level of imports is the principal leading indicator for detecting a forthcoming crisis in developing nation's external sector. In the public sector, the best indicators for predicting a crisis in South Africa are in the order: maturity of debt; external debt; debt-GDP ratio; interest rate payments; short-term debt and government expenditure. In Namibia, the best indicator for predicting crisis is total expenditure and interest rate payments. Comparatively, Russia's crises are better predicted by the following variables: debt ratio; interest rate payments; short-term debt; expenditure and external debt. The two best indicators were debt ratio and interest rate payments. In the financial sector, the common risk indicator among developing economies is the lending rate. The external balance sheet assessment shows that in developed countries, predictors of a financial emanate from portfolio investments and direct investments. For the UK, the best indicators of a looming financial crisis are: direct investment liabilities; portfolio debt liabilities and direct investment debt instruments. Contribution/Originality: This study is one of the first contributions in early warning systems that assesses vulnerability in multiple sectors of an economy which are external, public and financial sectors. To the best of the author's knowledge, this study is also the first to determine external balance sheet assessment in developed nations.

- by Mpho Bosupeng
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- Finance, International Trade, Monitoring And Evaluation, Logit & Probit models

This paper examines the effects of remittances on the Moroccan economic growth and their implications for economic policy choices, with particular attention to those relating to the exchange rate regime. In order to verify the link between remittances and development in Morocco, the study employs a VAR approach and variance decompositions analysis. Its result is that, for Morocco, the remittances have been a fundamental engine of economic growth, pro-cyclic and constant in time. This conclusion implies that the role of remittances in the Moroccan economic development must be ever present in economic policy decisions and, especially, in the exchange rate policy. In the opinion of authors, for a country, such as Morocco, characterized by strong migration outflows, directed mainly towards euro area, and by significant remittance inflows in the currency of the same area, the best exchange rate system is a basket peg, whose composition reflects not only the direction of trade and financial flows, but also those of migration flows and remittances.

The potential of time currencies to serve as a tool of social change remains relatively unexplored, and yet these alternative currencies make it possible to combine into a single mechanism several different social and environmental goals: reducing work hours, increasing civic engagement in public affairs, lowering public debt, and redistributing wealth.

- by Bruno Théret
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- Democratic Theory, Democratization, Deliberative Democracy, Democracy
- by Michael Janitra
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- Monetary Economics, Monetary Policy, Currency Exchange Rates, Exchange Rates
- by Adi Upes
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- Currency Exchange Rates

Purpose This study aims to examine the properties of four major cryptocurrencies and how they can be used as a simpler alternative mode of hedging foreign exchange (FX) risks as compared to existing mainstream financial risk management techniques. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a combination of visual data representations and the classic Fama and Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings The findings show that cryptocurrencies can be a more effective hedge against FX risks as compared to other common hedging instruments and/or techniques such as gold or a diversified currency portfolio. Research limitations/implications The conclusions were arrived at based only on a small group of cryptocurrency, i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or ZCash might exhibit different properties. Practical implications Cryptocurrencies can be cost-effective and cost-efficient instruments that provide a solid hedge for investors...

- by Calvin Cheong
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- Economics, Currency Exchange Rates, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency

Despite rising interest in African economies, there is little prior research on the determinants of exchange rate movements in the region. This paper examines the monthly exchange rates of the country members of the Southern African development community (SADC) from 1990 to 2010 inclusive. Long-run equilibrium exchange rate models are established, exchange rate determinants are identified, and ex-post forecasts are generated for a period of 18 months (Sekantsi, 2011). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model is used in this paper, given its statistical advantages over commonly, applied cointegration techniques. Findings show that the ARDL method generates accurate forecasts for eight out of 11 sampled exchange rates. In keeping with earlier literature (e.g. Redda and Muzindusti, 2017; Zerihun and Breitenbach, 2017 etc.), findings suggest that the chances of SADC member countries fulfilling the requirements of a currency union are quite low. This paper marks one ...

- by Christos Kallandranis
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- Economics, Forecasting, Regional Integration, Emerging Markets