Extreme events Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

1 Laboratorio de Observación e Investigación Espacial, Universidad de Quintana Roo; Avenida Andrés Quintana Roo, S/N, Frente a colonia San Gervasio, Cozumel 77600, Quintana Roo, Mexico 2 Colegio de Geografía, Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán 04510, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico 3 Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo, Instituto Politécnico Nacional (CIIEMAD-IPN), Departamento de Territorio y Ambiente, 30 de Junio de 1520 s/n, La Laguna Ticomán, Gustavo A. Madero, 07340, Ciudad de México, Mexico 4 Centro de Estudios Meteorológicos de la Costa, Departamento de Ciencias Exactas, Centro Universitario de la Costa, Universidad de Guadalajara, Av. Juárez No. 976, Colonia Centro, Guadalajara 44100, Jalisco, Mexico 5 Red de Desastres Asociados a Fenómenos Hidrometeorológicos y Climáticos (REDESClim), CONACYT, Av. Insurgentes Sur 1582, Col. Crédito Constructor, Alcaldía Benito...

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- Hurricanes, Extreme events, North Atlantic, Yucatan Peninsula

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

- by Morten A D Larsen and +3
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- Climate Change, Hydrology, Climate Change Adaptation, Numerical Analysis

The term resilience has saliency in the scholarship and policy on post-disaster management and disaster-risk reduction. In this paper, we assess the use of resilience as a concept for post-disaster reconstruction in Puerto Rico and offer a critique of the standard definition. This critique focuses on the primacy of Puerto Rico’s colonial relations with the United States meshed with decades of political mismanagement of the island’s economic and natural resources by local authorities and political parties. For resilience to be a useful conceptual device, we argue for decolonizing resilience and show the relevance of such an argument through a case study of the island’s coffee-growing region. Decolonizing resilience exposes power inequities and the individuating nature of post-disaster reconstruction to illustrate how collective action and direct participation of local actors and communities carves out autonomous spaces of engagement. Decolonizing resilience necessitates a contextuali...

- by Cynthia Caron
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- Sociology, Extreme events
- by roman ema
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- Social Media, Social Information Processing, Twitter, Extreme events

During the last decade, many local governments have launched initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions and the potential impact of hydro-climatic disasters. Nonetheless, today barely 11% of subtropical and tropical cities with over 100,000 inhabitants have a climate plan. Often this tool neither issues from an analysis of climate change or hydro climatic risks, nor does it provide an adequate depth of detail for the identified measures (cost, funding mode, implementation), nor a sound monitoring-evaluation device. This book aims to improve the quality of climate planning by providing 19 examples of analysis and assessments in eleven countries. It is intended for local operators in the fields of climate, hydro-climatic risks, physical planning, besides researchers and students of these subjects. The first chapter describes the status of climate planning in large subtropical and tropical cities. The following six chapters discuss the hazards (atmospheric drought, intense precipitations, sea level rise, sea water intrusion) and early warning systems in various contexts. Nine chapters explore flood risk analysis and preliminary mapping, climate change vulnerability, comparing contingency plans in various scales and presenting experiences centred on adaptation planning. The last three chapters introduce some best practices of weather and climate change monitoring, of flood risk mapping and assessment.

- by Maurizio TIEPOLO and +1
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- Climate Change Adaptation, Adaptation to Climate Change, Zurich, Nepal

Motto: Non schoale, sed vitae discimus.
Observed climate changes and dynamic development of global tourism indicate the need for broad-range education about natural hazards. The vagueness of the curricula of geography in Poland contributes to the duplication of some and the omission of other significant issues in various syllabuses. The information about natural disasters presented in textbooks and atlases varies in level of detail. In the curricula, the lack of reference to extreme natural events results in the lack of the term being used in study programs, textbooks and school atlases. Textbooks lack definitions and information about extreme natural events. Predominantly, the average picture of natural events is presented, and extremes are disregarded. The presentation of the extreme flooding in 1997 is dominant in all the textbooks. The text includes a comment on 'Safety Education,' a newly introduced subject (2009) in middle schools which is to be taught as a separate class and not in connection with natural hazards as part of the geography curriculum. The book presents the results of a poll carried out at the beginning and the end of high school education. During the academic year of 2006-07, surveys of knowledge and attitude were conducted on a target group of 601 high school students in Warsaw, with special emphasis on those who had passed the final comprehensive exams. The research shows that students look for answers to the following questions: how to identify hazards, how to avoid them, and how to react and cooperate in the face of hazards. However, that among students who had covered geography extensively, only a small group was taught about natural hazards and extreme natural phenomena. The observed differences do not demonstrate greater knowledge or sufficiently better developed third graders' (16 years old) attitude toward extreme natural events as compared to their younger counterparts (Summary, ss. 218-219).

The Vulcan eruption of Pompeii, the Arab Spring, the stock market crash of 2007-2008, and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster are all distinctive events. Their distinction is due not to the scale of disaster and destruction, but rather to the extreme low probability, unpredictability, infrequency and massive impact of the events. The first known and documented research that dealt with extreme events and their causes focused on water levels of the Nile 5000 years ago in Egypt. The water levels were precisely recorded and due to their importance to the Egyptians, whose economy and welfare in the environments surrounding the Nile were dependent on its water level. Agriculture in the region of the Nile delta was dependent on fertilizers and water from the Nile mud. Therefore, extremely low water levels could directly cause bad harvests, which could consequently lead to famine. On the other hand, extremely high water levels could also lead to disaster by flooding both the harvest fields and the places of the population. There has been an on-going interest in extreme events throughout the centuries for various reasons. The first reason is an increased frequency and intensity of the occurrence of extreme events. Secondly, the impact of extreme events can cause the abrupt collapse of structures and systems such as buildings, power plants, traffic, transportation systems, economies, stock exchanges, countries and political unions. These structures and systems are all man-made and their destruction due to extreme events has significant consequences on people, economies and countries. Therefore, it is necessary to understand extreme events by fathoming their attributes, characteristics, mechanics, causes and probabilities in order to effectively manage them (Albeverio, et al., 2006, pp.1-2).
This bachelor thesis, entitled ‘Extreme Events and their Impact on Risk Management and Treasury’, deals with extreme events in financial environments and their consequences on risk management and treasury departments of local and international institutions and companies. Therefore, in the scope of this thesis, the following questions must be answered to provide the knowledge necessary to develop strategies to manage extreme events:
- What are extreme events in general and in the context of finance?
- What quantitative knowledge about extreme events is available?
- What are the occurring behaviors of extreme events in the statistical context of
probability distribution?
- What impact do extreme events have on risk management and treasury
departments?
- What strategies can be used to protect company portfolios from being hit by
extreme events?
To answer these questions and fulfill the goal of this thesis, the structure is as follows. The thesis is divided two parts and three chapters. The first part, which consists of chapters two and three, deals with extreme events, the main topic of this thesis. Chapter two provides general information about extreme events. This general information is conveyed in five subchapters. The fist subchapter defines the term extreme events. The second and third subchapters discuss the attributes and characteristics of extreme events. The fourth subchapter illustrates the causes and origins of extreme events generally, and specifically in the context of financial environments. Subchapter five discusses the occurrence of extreme events in the stock markets, and presents a current example of an extreme event. The second chapter of part one (chapter three) provides advanced information about extreme events. The information in this chapter is based on chapter one, and is relevant to the information discussed in chapter four. Chapter three is also divided into five subchapters. The first subchapter presents research and theories of extreme events by Nassim Nicolas Taleb and Didier Sornette. The second subchapter introduces the Extreme Value Theory. The third subchapter discusses the significance of fat-tailed behavior on the probability of extreme events. The fourth subchapter concentrates on the identification of extreme events. The fifth subchapter discusses the risks and predictions of extreme events. The second part of the thesis focuses on the impact of extremes on risk management and treasuries. The second part consists of chapter four, which is divided into three parts. The first subchapter deals with the impact of extreme events on the fields of risk management and treasuries. The second subchapter provides strategies to protect a company or institutional portfolio on the occasion of an extreme event. The third subchapter delivers calculation methods in risk management and treasuries in the case of extreme events.

- by Maher Hamid
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- Finance, Statistics, Extreme events, Extreme value statistics

the relevant annual cost for agricultural productivity loss is estimated to be around 295 million euros. Under climate changes, soil erosion due to rainfall is dramatically increasing, for the most part because of an increasing of the frequency of extreme, localised events.
Here, we present the MSCA-Horizon2020 project, focused on understanding and quantifying extreme rainfall effects on soil erosion, by means of ground-based weather-radar observations and hydrological modelling at regional scale (namely in Tuscany, central Italy).
In critical hydrological phenomena, such as intense surface runoff, flooding and soil erosion, the spatiotemporal extent is crucial in the development of the processes. This feature significantly affects the impact and the evolution of critical phenomena, especially during extreme events.
Therefore, an approach directed to refine as much as possible the knowledge of these dynamics is recommended both at the monitoring and the modelling level.
Using an approach based on statistical analyses of rainfall data from ground-based radar and modelling, this project aims to: 1) Quantify on historical data the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfalls / runoff and soil erosion over the last years, 2) Build a platform to model runoff
and soil erosion during extreme events in real-time, 3) Simulate in real-time runoff and soil erosion behaviours related to extreme rainfalls, integrating the current regional-warning-system for the extreme weather events.

- by Rossano Ciampalini
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- Hydrology, Numerical Modelling, Extreme events, Soil Erosion
- by Pascal Eitler
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- Discourse Analysis, Religion, History, European History

This paper aims to provide inspiration for how risk transfer tools such as insurance can facilitate approaches to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change including slow-onset events. In particular it aims to show how insurance can be used in conjunction with a wide set of climate risk management tools to bolster societal resilience. The paper offers an overview of slow-onset climatic processes, provides a description on the current innovative tools and approaches to help reduce loss and damage associated with slow onset events provides case studies, and discussed some of the gaps and challenges related to implementation and enabling environment needed to manage climate risks in developing countries.

A changing climate leads to alterations in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of extreme climate events. These can result in unprecedented disasters induced by extreme weather and climate events. While uncertainties exist, some categories of extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and/or severity during the twenty-first century, particularly those related to global warming. A review of 74 post disaster needs assessments (PDNAs) conducted in 53 developing countries between 2006 to 2016 concludes that agriculture (crops, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, and forestry) absorb 23 percent of all damage and loss caused by medium- to large-scale natural disasters, which includes about 80 percent of climate related disasters (FAO, 2018). According to this review, the share of fisheries accounts for three percent of the total impact on agriculture, while the share of aquaculture remains systematically overlooked. However, in spite of this, agricultural sub-sectors like fisheries and aquaculture alike often tend to be under-estimated in PDNAs. The character and severity of impacts on the fishery and aquaculture sector from extreme climate events and weather variability will most likely increase, affecting the most exposed and vulnerable countries and communities that depend on the sector for their livelihoods. It is expected that the fishery and aquaculture sector in African, southeast Asian countries and in SIDS will more likely be more impacted than in other regions. It is therefore important that coherent and convergent disaster risk reduction and adaptation measures including preparedness for climate disaster response and recovery be mainstreamed in the fisheries and aquaculture sector as a matter of urgency and at an appropriate scale, particularly in the above mentioned regions.

- by Florence Poulain
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- Fisheries, Aquaculture, Extreme events
- by Bob Ogwang
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- Climate Change, Climatology, Meteorology, Extreme events

La microcuenca de drenaje de la quebrada Curucutí se ubica en la vertiente norte del Macizo del Ávila (10º33’08"-10º36’23" LN y 66º57’38"-66º59’14" LO), en el sector centro occidental del estado Vargas (Venezuela). Este sistema fue una de las más de veinte cuencas que se activaron hidromorfodinámicamente, como respuesta a las excepcionales precipitaciones ocurridas en Diciembre de 1999, en el Litoral Central de Venezuela. Es por ello que el propósito de este trabajo es, analizar e interpretar la dinámica hidrogeomorfológica de la microcuenca de drenaje de la quebrada Curucutí, en términos del control que ejercen sus parámetros morfométricos en las características de la respuesta hidrológica. La metodología comprendió: (a) cálculos y mediciones de parámetros morfométricos; (b) cálculo del tiempo de concentración; y (c) estimación de los hidrogramas unitarios y caudales pico de crecientes. La microcuenca de drenaje de la quebrada Curucutí, es un sistema hidrogeomorfológico cuya respuesta hidrológica está determinada por la pequeña área del mismo, fuertes pendientes en las vertientes y cauces del sector montañoso, la densidad de drenaje media, el orden 5 de la microcuenca, una relación de bifurcación media de 3,73, alta torrencialidad, las dimensiones de las tormentas y la intensidad y duración de las lluvias. Los cortos tiempos de concentración, así como las magnitudes estimadas de los caudales pico de crecientes y los picos y tiempos al pico de los hidrogramas unitarios obtenidos, corroboran la influencia que ejercen las características fisiográficas de la microcuenca y la estructura de la red de drenaje, en las respuestas rápidas y violentas del sistema. Ello define escenarios críticos de inundaciones, para eventos de períodos de retorno de 50, 100 y 500 años principalmente, y en el peor de los casos de 1000 años, para lluvias de 1 hora de duración.

- by Kiss Andrea
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- History, Geography, European Studies, Earth Sciences
- by Mukesh Kumar
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- Climate Change, Watershed Hydrology, Extreme events, Snow Hydrology
- by John McBride
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- Extreme events

Although it is acknowledged that there has been an exponential growth in neocatastrophist geoscience
inquiry, the extent, chronology and origin of this mode have not been precisely scrutinized. In this study, we
use the bibliographic research tool Scopus to explore ‘catastrophic’ words replete in the earth and planetary
science literature between 1950 and 2009, assessing when, where and why catastrophism has gained new
currency amongst the geoscience community. First, we elucidate an exponential rise in neocatastrophist
research from the 1980s onwards. We then argue that the neocatastrophist mode came to prominence in
North America during the 1960s and 1970s before being more widely espoused in Europe, essentially after
1980. We compare these trends with the EM-DAT disaster database, a worldwide catalogue that compiles
more than 11,000 natural disasters stretching back to 1900. The findings imply a clear link between
anthropogenically forced global change and an increase in disaster research (r2=0.73). Finally, we attempt
to explain the rise of neocatastrophism by highlighting seven non-exhaustive factors: (1) the rise of applied
geoscience; (2) inherited geological epistemology; (3) disciplinary interaction and the diffusion of ideas
from the planetary to earth sciences; (4) the advent of radiometric dating techniques; (5) the
communications revolution; (6) webometry and the quest for high-impact geoscience; and (7) popular cultural frameworks.

- by Christophe Morhange
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- Sociology of Disaster, Earth Sciences, Epistemology, Disaster Studies

Infill panel is the first element of a building subjected to blast loading activating its out-of-plane behavior. If the infill panel does not have enough ductility against the loading, it breaks and gets damaged before load transfer and energy dissipation. As steel infill panel has appropriate ductility before fracture, it can be used as an alternative to typical infill panels under blast loading. Also, it plays a pivotal role in maintaining sensitive main parts against blast loading. Concerning enough ductility of the infill panel out-of-plane behavior, the impact force enters the horizontal diaphragm and is distributed among the lateral elements. This article investigates the behavior of steel infill panels with different thicknesses and stiffeners. In order to precisely study steel infill panels, different ranges of blast loading are used and maximum displacement of steel infill under such various blast loading is studied. In this research, finite element analyses including geometric and material nonlinearities are used for optimization of the steel plate thickness and stiffener arrangement to obtain more efficient design for its better out-of-plane behavior. The results indicate that this type of infill with out-of-plane behavior shows a proper ductility especially in severe blast loadings. In the blasts with high intensity, maximum displacement of infill is more sensitive to change in the thickness of plate rather the change in number of stiffeners such that increasing the number of stiffeners and the plate thickness of infill panel would decrease energy dissipation by 20 and 77% respectively. The ductile behavior of steel infill panels shows that using infill panels with less thickness has more effect on energy dissipation. According to this study, the infill panel with 5 mm thickness works better if the criterion of steel infill panel design is the reduction of transmitted impulse to main structure. For example in steel infill panels with 5 stiffeners and blast loading with the reflected pressure of 375 kPa and duration of 50 milliseconds, the transmitted impulse has decreased from 41206 N.Sec in 20 mm infill to 37898 N.Sec in 5 mm infill panel.

- by maral Habibi
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- Climate Change, Hydrology, Drought, Extreme events

This paper reviews the most important information fusion data-driven algorithms based on Machine Learning (ML) techniques for problems in Earth observation. Nowadays we observe and model the Earth with a wealth of observations, from a plethora of different sensors, measuring states, fluxes, processes and variables, at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. Earth observation is well equipped with remote sensing systems, mounted on satellites and airborne platforms, but it also involves in-situ observations, numerical models and social media data streams, among other data sources. Data-driven approaches, and ML techniques in particular, are the natural choice to extract significant information from this data deluge. This paper produces a thorough review of the latest work on information fusion for Earth observation, with a practical intention, not only focus-ing on describing the most relevant previous works in the field, but also the most important Earth observation applications where ML information fusion has obtained significant results. We also review some of the most currently used data sets, models and sources for Earth observation problems, describing their importance and how to obtain the data when needed. Finally, we illustrate the application of ML data fusion with a representative set of case studies, as well as we discuss and outlook the near future of the field.

- by Amir Mosavi
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- Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, Extreme events, Deep Learning

It was the objective of this study to characterize erosional and depositional sedimentary features caused by overwash events at barrier islands. Investigations took place at the East Frisian Island of Norderney as well as at the North Frisian Island of Amrum, which both are part of a barrier system that belongs to an island chain lining the Southern North Sea. Coring data of Northern Amrum show a washover-sequence caused by several storm surge induced overwash flooding of the last century. Today, overwash processes are prevented by coastal protection arrangements that preserve the entire sedimentary sequence. The eastern part of Norderney is currently affected by storm surge events and represents a vivid example for studying today’s overwash dynamics of a young barrier island. A variety of different erosional and depositional sedimentary features like washover channel and washover fans can be recognised straight next to each other.

- by Tanja Dr. Tillmann
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- Geography, Geomorphology, Sedimentology, Climate Change

There may be situations in which structures are subjected to dynamic loads with intensities sufficient to cause permanent deformation and to accumulate damage that leads to collapse. Under extreme loading these structures must be capable of absorbing a considerable amount of energy. Thus, if engineers are to conceive lighter, more slender constructions without compromising quality and security standards, then they must evaluate a structure’s dynamic behavior considering the material ductility. Complex theories such as nonlinear formulations can be used to reduce simplifications in the analysis/design process. This work evaluates the nonlinear behavior of plane steel frames under extreme dynamic loads. Steel is considered to be an elastoplastic material, and for loading/unloading conditions, the structural members’ plasticity state is controlled using the refined plastic-hinge method. With this refined method the cross section’s gradual plastification can be accompanied from the start of yielding until the complete plastification of the section (plastic-hinge formation). Residual stresses are also considered, and the adopted plastic resistance surface of the cross section is defined by the internal forces and by its geometric characteristics. The numerical examples presented demonstrated the applicability of the proposed numerical strategy where the refined plastic hinge model enables the energy dissipation through the plastic hinges

- by Ricardo A M Silveira and +1
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- Steel Structure, Extreme events, Nonlinear static & dynamic analysis, Refined plastic-hinge method
- by Kiss Andrea and +1
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- Civil Engineering, Geography, Environmental Science, Climate Change

- by Cynthia Caron
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- Sociology, Extreme events

Una de las amenazas naturales más relevantes que impactan sobre el margen costero carabobeño, lo constituyen las inundaciones, procesos naturales cuyos episodios importantes son activados por lluvias extraordinarias. Por ello, el presente trabajo tiene como propósito, caracterizar y analizar la distribución espacio-temporal y los eventos extremos de las precipitaciones en la franja costera-montañosa Morón – Puerto Cabello – Patanemo del estado Carabobo, con la finalidad de establecer su vinculación con escenarios de inundaciones. La metodología se basó en el tratamiento de datos de precipitación de las estaciones Puerto Cabello-Base Naval, Morón-Dique, Hacienda El Manglar, Santa Rita, Borburata y El Cambur (período 1973-1990), para los cuales se realizaron cálculos de parámetros estadísticos y de anomalías pluviométricas, y análisis de tendencia. Se estudiaron datos de láminas máximas anuales de precipitación para distintas duraciones de la lluvia, correspondientes a las estaciones Borburata (período 1962-1995) y Santa Rita (período 1974-1995), a los cuales se les realizó análisis de intensidad-duración-frecuencia (IDF) para distintos períodos de retorno. Los resultados muestran promedios anuales que oscilan entre 478,4 mm y 1649,6 mm, cuya distribución espacial está determinada por la orientación de la línea de costa, el relieve montañoso (altitud), y la orientación de los valles fluvio-marinos y de las laderas de los estribos montañosos. La distribución temporal de las lluvias exhibe regímenes unimodales y bimodales. A excepción de la estación Borburata, se observa una ligera tendencia a la disminución de los montos totales anuales en las otras estaciones. Las anomalías por exceso de lluvia alcanzan valores de hasta 1366,63 mm, y por déficit de 710,20 mm. El análisis de IDF indica valores críticos para 1 hora de duración de 91,63 mm/h y 102,94 mm/h en un período de retorno de 50 años, y valores de 102,55 mm/h y 115,11 mm/h para un período de retorno de 100 años.

- by Williams José Méndez Mata
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- Extreme events, Extreme climate events, Floods, Rainfall

Environmental and climate change is a global issue that will and has already impacted the frequency and intensity of natural hazards in many regions throughout the world. Consequently, the actions on structures will be changing and present design practices will need to be adapted to provide for reliable structures with service lifetimes spanning over decades and centuries. A submitted review of present environmental and climate change information is focused on the distinct, but complementary climatic conditions of Central Europe and South Africa. An outline of the basis of structural design accounting for extreme wind and snow loads is presented and recommendations for future risk-based design procedures are discussed. Issues to consider include: a) use of extreme value models; b) implementation of changes in distribution parameters to obtain extremes with long return periods; c) consideration of the rate of the change. The example of a representative structure illustrates the effects of climatic actions on structural reliability. It appears that uncertainties related to the lack of observations hinder drawing strong conclusions concerning appropriate modifications of design procedures due to environmental and climate change. Uncertainties in the prediction of environmental and climate change have a direct bearing on optimal levels of reliability and the subsequent derivation of design values.

- by Miroslav Sýkora and +2
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- Civil Engineering, Structural Engineering, Climate Change, Decision Making
- by Vincent Moron
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- Psychology, Climate Change, Climatology, Meteorology
- by Christophe Morhange
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- Geoarchaeology, Disaster Studies, Disaster risk management, Tsunami

In the present work, the performance of a selected conventional rubble mound breakwater to different
failure mechanisms under extreme conditions associated with climate change, is investigated. The
nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual extremes of offshore
significant wave heights and sea surface heights due to storm surges at the site of the defence.
Extracted distributions for extreme waves are transferred to the breakwater site by means of a
statistical approach. Time-dependent future failure probabilities of the structure are assessed for
different failure mechanisms within the general framework of nonstationary reliability analysis.
Failure probability estimates are used to determine future periods of increased vulnerability of the
studied structure to different ultimate limit states. The analysis defines critical failure mechanisms and
proves that the assumption of stationarity underestimates the total failure probability of the structure
under extreme marine conditions.

- by Christos V Makris and +2
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- Climate Change, Climate Change Adaptation, Impact of climate change on sea level rise, Reliability Engineering

Impact of flooding on tropical forest ecosystems and their management is a little studied area that is expected to become increasingly important under projected climate change. A demonstration of this was provided by the record-breaking 2014 flood of the Madeira River in Brazil. We assessed factors affecting survival of Brazilnut trees (Bertholletia excelsa H.B.K.) under root asphyxia caused by flooding in the Lago do Capanã Grande Extractive Reserve in Manicoré municipality (county), Amazonas state, Brazil. Mortality was surveyed in three Brazilnut groves (castanhais) in 680 individual Brazilnut trees of which 357 had been exposed to flooding and 200 had been flooded for at least 83 days, which was the threshold for mortality effects. Trees were georeferenced and measured for DBH and the height above the ground of the flood-water mark. This information, together with topography from satellite data and water levels from hydrographic gauges, allowed calculation of the time each tree was flooded. None of the 323 unflooded trees died. The analysis indicates a relationship between mortality and duration of root asphyxia, killing 17% of the individuals exposed to flooding and 35% of the individuals that were flooded for periods greater than 109 days. Nevertheless, survival exceeded 50% for all flooding durations. The data suggest that larger trees have a greater probability of mortality for any given period of asphyxia. Expected increases in extreme flood events threaten a sustainable forest management system based on harvest of non-timber products.

- by Aurelio Diaz Herraiz and +1
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- Climate Change, Hydrology, Flood Risk Management, Brazil
- by Michael B Butts
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- Earth Sciences, Environmental Science, Climate Change, Hydrology

Extreme heat is a growing concern for cities, with both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect increasingly impacting public health, economies, urban infrastructure, and urban ecology. To better understand the current state of planning for extreme heat, we conducted a systematic literature review. We found that most of the research focuses on UHI mapping and modeling, while few studies delve into extreme heat planning and governance processes. An in-depth review of this literature reveals common institutional, policy, and informational barriers and strategies for overcoming them. Identified challenges include siloed heat governance and research that limit cross-governmental and interdisciplinary collaboration; complex, context-specific, and diverse heat resilience strategies; the need to combine extreme heat “risk management” strategies (focused on preparing and responding to extreme heat events) and “design of the built environment” strategies (spatial planning and d...

- by Sara Meerow
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- Climate Change, Urban Planning, Extreme events, Urband Heat Island

Coastal urban regions in low-lying areas in developing countries are often hotspots of climate change related risks and therefore the analysis of different characteristics of vulnerability, resilience and transformation is an important prerequisite for planning and decision making. Even though the concepts of resilience and transformation have been discussed for some time, they often remain still very abstract. Against this background the following paper aims to illustrate how different characteristics of vulnerability: susceptibility, exposure and adaptation from resilience to transformative change can be assessed in practice at the level of individual households and different city districts. The household survey was conducted in four low-income, at risk areas in the coastal megacity of Lagos. It reveals important differences between the case study locations in terms of perceived capacities and actual responses of households to extreme events and creeping hazards. The analysis of b...

- by Michael Ahove
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- Extreme events
- by Layla Branicki
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- Organizational Behavior, Decision Making, Resilience, Strategic Decision Making

Urban flooding is becoming increasingly destructive in the Mediterranean region as more and more urban infrastructure and socioeconomic activities are exposed to flood risk. The metropolitan area of Athens, Greece, is no exception to this flood-prone regime, presenting a rich record of flood events during the last century. On February 22, 2013, a high-intensity storm that lasted 7 h hit Athens, severely impacting the transportation sector, hindering vehicle circulation and the overall performance of the road network. This paper studies the impacts of high-intensity storms in urban areas by examining the effects of the February 2013 Athens storm and the resultant flood event. Its novelty lies in the impacts quantification approach, applying cutting-edge traffic flow control methodologies in the form of macroscopic fundamental diagrams. It quantifies the storm’s impacts on vehicular traffic in terms of operational disruptions during the event, by analyzing various traffic-related indicators, such as travel time, delays, speed drop and re-routing of vehicles, using data from the Athens traffic management center and urban freight vehicle fleets. Results show increased travel times, significant changes in routing and substantial speed drops, highlighting the disruptive effects of the flooding event on traffic. The importance of developing a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the effects of such events in urban areas is particularly high, considering the context of the changing climate and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

- by Michalis Diakakis
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- Climate Change, Sustainable Transportation, Road safety, Flood Risk Management

Disaster risk management and wider processes of adaptation are too often understood in isolation from development. Kolkata faces increasing heatwaves, flood hazard and everyday waterlogging as a result of climate change but the social and spatial distribution of impacts will likely be mediated by historic and contemporary development decisions. The paper reports on a study that has combined a scenario workshop method and expert interviews to surface the views of risk and resilience planners, academics and urban professionals on the adaptation–development nexus. Kolkata is experiencing rapid and fundamental transition in its governance regimes and economic structures as state-led development gives way to stronger market forces. Planners welcome an opening of urban governance but are worried by the speed of change. Transition in risk governance is observed in a predicted shift from a contemporary orientation where capacity is limited but focused on protecting development gains, to one...

- by William Solecki
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- Extreme events

Resumo: O presente trabalho ocupou-se com o estudo do comportamento das chuvas em Uberaba/MG, identificando os eventos extremos de precipitação, sua frequência e seu tempo de retorno. Foram utilizados dados diários da Estação Meteorológica do INMET de Uberaba, no período de 1961-2015. O Teste de Mann-Kendall foi aplicado aos totais mensais e aos parâmetros propostos pelo ETCCDI para a pluviosidade. A aplicação do percentil 99 aos dados pluviométricos diários permitiu a identificação dos eventos extremos. Foram calculados a frequência desses eventos (f), a frequência relativa (probabilidade de ocorrência) e o Tempo de retorno (T) desses eventos. Os resultados revelaram que há uma tendência significativa de aumento da precipitação no mês de março, da quantidade de dias de chuva e de eventos intensos de precipitação diária. Por outro lado, as chuvas no mês de outubro apresentaram tendência de redução significativa, bem como a diminuição dos dias de chuva para este mês. Os resultados ainda demonstraram que as chuvas diárias intensas são muito comuns em Uberaba ocorrendo, pelo menos, dois eventos significativos a cada ano.
Palavras-chave: mudanças climáticas, precipitações, testes estatísticos, Triângulo Mineiro.
Abstract: The present work was concerned with the study of rain behavior in Uberaba / MG, identifying the extreme precipitation events, their frequency and their return time. Daily data from 1961 to 2015 period, from the INMET Meteorological Station of Uberaba were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to the monthly totals and parameters proposed by the ETCCDI for rainfall. The application of the 99th percentile to the daily rainfall data identified extreme events. The frequency of these events (f), the relative frequency (probability of occurrence) and the time of return (t) of these events were calculated. Results showed a significant tendency of rainfall increase in the month of March, the amount of rainy days and intense daily precipitation events. On the other hand, rainfall in October showed a significant reduction trend, as well as a decrease in rainy days for this month. The results also demonstrated that intense daily rains are very common in Uberaba, occurring at least two significant events each year.
Keywords: climate change, rainfall, statistical tests, Triângulo Mineiro Region.

- by Fabio Sanches
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- Geography, Climate Change, Climatology, Climate Change Impacts

This paper addresses the impact of individual and sequence of storms on the macro-tidal Biscarrosse beach, SW France, using 6-year video observation, including the influence of tides and sandbar location. Following 5% exceedance of wave heights (Hs >3.68 m), over 60 individual storms (>15 a year) are observed. On average, the beach shows 9 days of recovery from post-storm beach state to prior-to-storm state. Results suggest that the most pronounced erosion is caused by first and second storms in clusters while following storms show less impact. Clusters show relatively higher impact (1.12) as encountered for individual storms. Shoreline change is influenced by waves with major erosion occurring mainly at spring tide range and when inner sandbars are distant/far from shore.

- by Dr. Donatus Angnuureng
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- Extreme events, Bathymetry, Tropical Storms

This paper addresses socio-environmental challenges, health and traditional communities in the context of climate change. The study regards a protected area, the so-called Mosaico Bocaina, in the municipalities of Angra dos Reis and Paraty, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and Ubatuba, in the state of São Paulo, where traditional communities from three different ethnic groups live (indigenous, quilombolas and caiçara). The knowledge of nature and of the physics of climate change (including its causes, consequences and characteristics) isn't always accompanied by the understanding and science of how climate change affects the well-being and health of populations. The analysis of the public policies and science production for the field concluded that the situation for the region in question is no different from that of other regions in Latin America: i) public policies have not become effective interventions against climate change in general, and the interest in its implications over the health of populations is recent; ii) the science of climate change is insufficient, especially regarding its effects over the health of populations, whether in this specific region or more encompassing scales; iii) there is no information on how traditional communities perceive climate change, their impacts on health and well-being and tackling strategies. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of traditional communities, focusing on the governance tools required to address it. What strategies have traditional communities been using to deal with it? How does the official agenda of efforts reflect the socio-cultural perceptions and mitigation and survival strategies of traditional communities? Qualitative methods of participant

- by Andreia Setti and +1
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- Climate Change, Health, Extreme events, Climate Governance
- by Charles Huyck
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- Extreme events

In a most recent article, a team of climatologists and historians around Ulf Büntgen has proposed the identification of a " Late Antique Little Ice Age " in the period from 536 to 660 AD which was characterised by significant socio-political upheavals and catastrophes such as volcanic eruptions and plague epidemics. Among the extreme events not included into their scenario by Büntgen et alii is the severe flood which in 628 AD affected what is now modern-day Southern Iraq, then the core province of the mighty Sasanian Empire, which was not to survive the following decades.

- by Johannes Preiser-Kapeller
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- History, Ancient History, Medieval History, Climate Change

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic changed many social, economic, environmental, and healthcare determinants of health in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. COVID-19 potentially heightened the risk of heat-related health impacts in NYC, particularly on the most vulnerable communities, who often lack equitable access to adequate cooling mechanisms such as air conditioning (AC) and good quality green space. Here, we review some of the policies and tools which have been developed to reduce vulnerability to heat in NYC. We then present results from an online pilot survey of members of the environmental justice organization WE ACT for Environmental Justice (WE ACT) between July 11 and August 8, 2020, which asked questions to evaluate how those in Northern Manhattan coped with elevated summer heat in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also make some policy recommendations based on our initial findings. Results of our pilot survey suggest that people stayed indoors more d...

- by Palak Srivastava
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- Extreme events

The innovation process is central to effective adaption to climate change and development challenges, but models from business and management tend to dominate innovation theory, which sits outside the adaption-development paradigm. This paper presents an alternative conceptual framework to visualize innovations as pathways across the adaption-development landscape for humanitarian and development goals. This useful tool can reveal, map and coordinate innovation strategy. To demonstrate and validate this approach, we analyze a case study of innovation in aftershock forecasting for humanitarian decision-making and show that the most effective strategy is for multiple innovation strands and hubs to move concurrently and cumulatively towards transformative humanitarian and development goals.

- by Dominic Crowley
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- Extreme events