Lean Project Delivery Research Papers (original) (raw)

ABSTRACT Lean Six Sigma Executive Overview (Case Study) Templates are a guide to Lean Six Sigma Green Belt, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt, and Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt Projects. Lean Six Sigma Practitioners use the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) Phases. The Lean Six Sigma Executive Overview (Case Study) include the most common tools used in the DMAIC Phases. There are Backup Slides that include the tools and templates of Optional or less often tools. There are guidelines in the notes section. These templates are used to document Lean Six Sigma Projects as they are executed. I wish you well on your projects. Steven Bonacorsi, Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt.

- by
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- Business, Management, Business Administration, Engineering
- by Ayodeji E Oke
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Manufacturing, Lean Management

- by Opeoluwa Akinradewo
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Manufacturing, Lean Management

Lean Six Sigma Measure Phase Tollgate Templates are a guide to Lean Six Sigma Green Belt, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt, and Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt Projects. Lean Six Sigma Practitioners use the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) Phases. The Lean Six Sigma Measure Phase Tollgate Templates include the most common tools used in the Measure Phase. There are Backup Slides that include the tools and templates of Optional or less often tools. There are guidelines in the notes section. These templates are used to document Lean Six Sigma Projects as they are executed. There are checklists and guides to ensure the Measure Phase is completed and approved before moving to the next process improvement phase. I wish you well on your projects. Steven Bonacorsi, Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt.

- by Steven Bonacorsi
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- Business, Business Administration, Engineering, Statistics

There is a trend in the construction industry of adopting more and more relational type contracting methods, for example, project alliancing. In addition to this trend, there is increasing adoption of the lean construction principles. This paper explores the inherent relationship between project alliancing and lean construction in an attempt to highlight the similarities between this project delivery method and the lean methodology. Based on the literature studied and the performed interviews, this study shows that alliancing does in fact inherently align with some key lean construction principles. Particularly in the area of customer focus, culture and people, waste elimination, and continuous improvement. An understanding of how and where alliancing aligns with lean can lead to a better insight into how the model can be improved. Such knowledge could be useful to practitioners looking at incorporating more efficiencies into the alliancing model by introducing lean concepts

- by Ola Lædre
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- Engineering, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Alliances

The construction industry has relentlessly explored ways to improve its design and delivery performance through technology and process innovations. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the newest entrant to address these needs. Studies have shown that it is gaining momentum and acceptance only recently, although introduced almost two decades ago. Most adopters of BIM, on the Owner, Designer and Contractor side will vouch for the benefits of BIM in clash detection and enhanced collaboration, especially when combined with Lean Delivery methods. Clash detection prior to construction is a major value add in the project planning and execution process by adding an extra level of reliability in the construction documents. The value has been seen in projects in terms of reduction in time required for coordination (ie., production of engineering drawings) between designer and contractor, in terms of reduction (if not elimination) of rework due to faulty coordination, and has enabled more reliable offsite fabrication of component building systems in finishes.
The paper will explore clash detection, a post-facto realization on current engineering practices to a model that envisions clash avoidance inherently in the design. This approach allows for building system design and engineering to be generated based on functional rules clash free and coordinated from the beginning. The paper will describe learnings and benefits other industries, specifically the Integrated Circuit (IC) chip design industry that has eliminated manual engineering and coordination and relies on rule based functional engineering and design to manufacture. This has allowed these industries to realize advanced supply chain management processes, more component standardization, safer job sites, reduced capital and operating costs, and finally reduced time frames from design to manufacturing. These IC processes can now be realized in construction. Early results are indicated in the paper. Finally, the paper will discuss the barriers and pitfalls unique to design and construction of buildings with this new process for lean and Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) teams.

- by Kalyan Vaidyanathan and +2
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- Construction Technology, Construction Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction

"Purpose: To review the state-of-the-art of Lean Project Delivery (LPD), to show the relationship between LPD and integrated design and delivery (particularly the IDDS element ‘collaborative processes’) and to propose further stages of development, research and practice.
Method: Description and analysis of action research & learning in current practice.
Findings: In the context of Lean Project Delivery with Target Value Design (TVD) projects are completed below market cost—so far as much as 19% below and expected cost falls as design and construction progresses.
Limitations: this work is based on a limited number of linked cases in the US over the last 10 years. We suggest the ideas are applicable far more widely.
Implications: there is still more development and research required to develop effective leadership models for integrated design and delivery, create whole of life Target Value Design, to create significant bodies of evidence to guide the design of many building types and to further develop the Lean Project Delivery System.
Value for practitioners: initial indications are that the methods described work together to deliver significant benefits for owners/clients/end-users and create a more satisfying experience for most designers and constructors.
Keywords: Target Value Design, lean construction, lean project delivery, allowable cost, target cost, value, evidence-based design, A3, set-based design, collaboration, early constructor involvement, integrated form of agreement, integrated project delivery, value management, IDDS"

- by Alan Mossman and +2
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Set-based design, Integrated Project Delivery System (Architecture)

This paper describes the methodology and results obtained after productivity improvement work conducted on two consecutive building construction jobs. The first one was used to evaluate production rates and productivity, current construction methods, potentials and lacks of construction equipment, current construction planning methodology, and existing tools to asses productivity. These are briefly discussed in this paper. The second job was preplanned based on the experience and detailed documentation obtained in the first one. Work was conducted in order to “design” construction methods in detail, develop a detailed production planning based on the construction methods developed, select crew components and select their specific tasks, and design communication and control tools. Although the second job’s schedule and budget were originally calculated using standard methods (i.e. historical production rates), new schedule and budget were calculated based on the preplanning effort. Construction performance was measured against these values.

- by Leonardo Rischmoller
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- Civil Engineering, Architecture, Research Methodology, Project Management
- by Nikolaos Zahariadis
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Buffers are often used in Construction to prevent the negative impact of Variability and Uncertainty on projects. Inventories of materials, budget contingencies, time float, and excess of equipment capacity are examples of the type of Buffers found in construction. However, usually the design and management of Buffers is based mostly on intuition and performed informally. New production philosophies such as Lean Production, Lean Construction and Theory of Constraints allow a more systematic and rigorous approach to the Design and Management of Buffers. This paper discusses the role of production management philosophies in the Design and Management of Buffers, and how selected IT tools can support this process. The paper also provides some guidelines for the design of Buffers in repetitive construction projects using a proposed conceptual model.

- by Leonardo Rischmoller
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- Civil Engineering, Architecture, Research Methodology, Lean Project Delivery

Projects have been considered as temporary based production systems which need to be designed, produced and delivered within a specified time. It has been asserted by a number of researchers that fast, complex and uncertain projects cannot be managed through the conventional ways and that fast track projects with long, complicated supply chains involving many players and subject to multiple, extensive process design changes have complex flow management that have failed miserably. The conceptual models of construction management and the tools it utilizes (work breakdown structure, critical path method, and earned value management) have been criticized to be deficient in handling the present unique challenges of projects. As a result, the industry is characterized by a number of wastes including: overproduction, lead time, transportation, inappropriate processing, inventories, unnecessary movements, rework and making do wastes. There is therefore the need for practical and robust models and techniques that will help projects teams deal with the issues of wastes in projects. This can only be achieved through the adoption of lean production systems in the construction industry, thus, Lean Construction (LC). In this paper, LC approach and the importance for its implementation has been discussed as the robust approach for project management.

Lean Six Sigma DMAIC Checklist Templates are a guide to Lean Six Sigma Green Belt, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt, and Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt Projects. Lean Six Sigma Practitioners use the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) Phases. There are Backup Slides that include the tools and templates of Optional or less often tools. There are guidelines in the notes section. These templates are used to document Lean Six Sigma Projects as they are executed. There are checklists and guides to ensure the DMAIC Phase is completed and approved before moving to the next process improvement phase. I wish you well on your projects. Steven Bonacorsi, Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt.

- by Steven Bonacorsi
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- Business, Management, Business Administration, Engineering

The construction industry is heterogeneous and enormously involved with projects that are exposed to an uncertainty found in design and planning, presence of various interest of stakeholders, availability of resources, environmental factors, the economy of the country and statutory regulations. However, most activities of the industry have negative impacts on the environment by generation of construction and demolition wastes. Lean Construction (LC) technique gives the opportunity to more but with less of everything, lean use less of human effort, equipment, time, and space. This study seeks to appraise the benefits of LC technique based on professionals' opinion in the South African Construction Industry. Well-structured questionnaire was prepared to collect data from respondents which include Quantity Surveyors, Architects, Construction Managers, Project Managers and Civil Engineers. Result of the analysed data revealed that clients, consultants and contractors agreed that the most significant benefits of adopting LC technique are waste reduction, efficient administration of materials and improved whole-life cost of construction projects. This implies that management of construction waste is one of the important management processes necessary to achieve project objectives. Recommendation was made that companies should use LC to identify and analyse waste to improve productivity, minimise time and accidents, improve reliability, improve quality and ensure more client satisfaction.

- by Opeoluwa Akinradewo and +1
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Manufacturing, Lean Management
- by Ahmad Alsaadi
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Design, Lean Management

Lean thinking has now become a radical philosophy that has permeated and expanded in to several sectors other than just manufacturing. The concept of Lean thinking evolves the optimization of work flow related functions and the possible outcomes with its contribution to sustainable construction.
Correspondingly, application of lean theories and principles in to construction sector has the potential to improve the quality of work, aggravate the function related effectiveness, minimize the cost components/ waste and increase the overall profit in both strategic and operational levels. Apparently, it appears that the lean techniques have immensely contributed for many possible cost reductions compared with the traditional project management techniques. However, few barriers for the
implementation of lean principles are also on the contrary. The research aims to investigate the effects of Lean Construction applications while identifying the prevailing barriers related to the same. The research has exploited qualitative methods to explore the aforementioned research question. This
paper presents an exploratory study from extent literature, predominantly based on a case study of a project management organization whereas the arguments were strengthened and underpinned by the formation of a conceptual framework to explore the contribution of implementing lean construction
techniques in sustainable construction. The research findings would ultimately help different stakeholders on applying lean theories in to practice.
Keywords: Integrated Project Delivery System; Last Planner; Lean Construction; Lean Manufacturing.

- by Upeksha Madanayake
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction

Waste in the construction industry has been the subject of several research projects around the world in recent years. Researchers implement different methods to reduce the amount of waste in the construction industry. One of the effective methods for reducing waste is the application of lean approaches. Lean construction is a result of the introduction of a new form of production management. Although lean construction is still evolving, its generic principles, techniques and tools can already be applied. Waste reduction is one of the basic concepts of lean thinking. In general, project managers tend to conceptualize 'waste' as physical construction waste, but lean thinking believes that there are noticeable wastes hidden in construction processes (such as non–value–adding activities and waiting time). We aim at examining the ability of lean construction principles to reduce construction process waste through a case study (reinforcement process). Computer simulation is utilized to reveal the results of lean principles application prior to real implementation. Results show that different kinds of waste in a construction process can be reduced via adopting lean construction principles using computer simulation.

- by S. Alireza Abbasian-Hosseini and +1
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- Project Management, Construction Technology, Construction Management, Lean Project Delivery
- by burak civan
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Thinking, Lean Manufacturing, Lean Management

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

ABSTRACT
The Principle objective of this project was to establish the major causes of delays in projects implementation in the construction industry in Kenya. The study delimited itself my limiting the scope into the roads maintained /constructed by the KeNHA in the coast region of Kenya. This was deeply looked at by taking into account four major objectives that included: to establish the extent to which construction project financing influence the delay of construction projects in the road sector, to investigate the extent to which construction project planning influence the delay of construction projects in the road sector, to find out the extent to which contractor’s experience influences the delay of construction projects in the road sector, and ,to investigate the extent to which supervision of work influences the delay of construction projects in the road sector. The study employed a survey research design, since it was an in depth investigation of an individual group of respondents. The questioners were used as the main source of gathering information from selected 55 respondents that cut a cross categories like constrictors, surveyors, engineers and many more. These questionnaires were emailed to some respondents; others were dropped and picked later while some were administered by research assistants. Questionnaires were sorted out, data keyed in into the SPSS for analysis. This information then was presented by use of frequency tables. From the hypothesis testing using the Chi-Square, the calculated Chi-Square values were found to be greater than the critical value of 9.488 thus the alternative hypotheses were adopted in all the four cases as per the objectives. Recommendations for further studies have been included in the last chapter (chapter five).

- by Amira Elnokaly
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- Construction Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Design
- by Nazib Faizal
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- Lean Project Delivery

El presente trabajo de tesis consiste en elaborar una propuesta de integración entre los procesos, las técnicas y herramientas de gestión utilizadas en tres sistemas de gestión: Lean Project Delivery System, el Project Management Institute y Building Information Modeling/Virtual Design and Construction. El objetivo de realizar dicha propuesta es mejorar las prácticas tradicionales relacionadas a la gestión visual y de las comunicaciones durante la etapa de diseño de los proyectos de construcción en Lima-Perú.

- by Paula Lucía Ruiz Conejo
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- Design, Project Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction
- by Andisiwe Joja
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- Civil Engineering, Project Management, Lean Project Delivery, Stakeholders

Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior, Information Systems

Lean construction and Building Information Modeling are quite different initiatives, but both are having profound impacts on the construction industry. A rigorous analysis of the myriad specific interactions between them indicates that a synergy exists which, if properly understood in theoretical terms, can be exploited to improve construction processes beyond the degree to which it might be improved by application of either of these paradigms independently. Using a matrix that juxtaposes BIM functionalities with prescriptive lean construction principles, fifty-six interactions have been identified, all but four of which represent constructive interaction. Although evidence for the majority of these has been found, the matrix is not considered complete, but rather a framework for research to explore the degree of validity of the interactions. Construction executives, managers, designers and developers of IT systems for construction can also benefit from the framework as an aid to recognizing the potential synergies when planning their lean and BIM adoption strategies.

Since the introduction of Lean Construction, implementation of Lean Construction
method, tools, and thinking has been a challenge. The success of Lean Construction is
evident, but still implementation challenges emerge, among others, culture, training,
leadership, but also partial implementation of Lean Construction. Some reports
indicate that the major implementation challenges are related to misconceptualization
of lean construction tools, and case studies have found that often
Lean Construction was either partially or incorrectly applied.
Denmark is one of the pioneer countries in the Lean Construction journey, with
the driving force of Sven Bertelsen and MT Højgaard among others. It is considered a
country with a widespread and deep implementation of Lean Construction. But how
disseminated is Lean Construction in reality? And do those who claim to apply lean
construction actually do lean construction?
On the basis of these questions this research contributes with a survey with a
magnitude of 500 practitioners from the Danish construction industry. Results of this
survey are compared with recent IGLC research on implantation challenges of lean
construction. This research itself does not put forward any improved guide on how to
implement lean construction. Instead it brings light to how lean construction is
actually applied. In itself this is very interesting, and is valuable knowledge that can
be used in further research on lean construction theory and on implementation of lean
in the industry.

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Questions: Are there connections and trade-offs between Lean Construction (LC) and Sustainable Construction (SC)? If so, what is needed to support their integration in theory and practice? What are the gaps in knowledge and the opportunities for bringing closer linkage between research and practice? Purpose: A growing body of knowledge has been emerging from the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC) community, in relation to synergies between LC and Sustainability. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to critically review the progress made towards integrating LC and SC in theory and practice, in order to provide a conceptual consolidation of this knowledge. Research Method: A Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of 'LC and Sustainability' studies published in proceedings of the IGLC annual conferences over the past 25 years, using a qualitative approach to research synthesis. Findings: This study presents the main synergies and inconsistencies between LC and SC, reveals the main limitations in approaches to LC and SC, exposes potential enablers for integrating LC and SC, and divulges opportunities for further research Limitations: This SLR study only includes peer-reviewed papers published by the IGLC and excludes the wider construction literature. Implications: The findings of this study advance the research agenda providing the potential to develop sustainable improvements in practice.

- by Dr. Saad Sarhan
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- Construction Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, Lean Design

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

- by Renia Ehrenfeucht
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Em um mundo cada vez mais competitivo, em que o fator tempo impacta cada vez mais nos projetos. A abordagem Canvas é uma alternativa gráfica para acelerar o processo de criação junto a equipe para o desenvolvimento de um novo negócio, uma iinovação tecnológica, uma nova campanha de marketing ou e a geração de jogos digitais, totalizando 26 modelos identificados. Apensar da quantidade dessas ferramentas a sua aplicação ainda é bem pequena junto a gerentes de projetos, desenvolvedores e inovadores. Diante disso esta pesquisa possui como objetivos: (1) identificar os modelos mais conhecidos e utilizados; (2) identificar os motivos para a adoção do modelo Canvas; e (3) identificar as barreiras para a adoção do modelo Canvas. Utiliza estudo de casos múltiplos e utiliza a triangulação de dados com entrevistas, questionário e a literatura. Como resultados foram identificadas 12 ferramentas mais conhecidas, 9 utilizadas, os 12 motivadores para a utilização dos modelos Canvas e 3 barreiras a serem transpostas. As limitações desta pesquisa são a quantidade de entrevistados e a limitação de 26 Canvas. A contribuição para a prática está na demonstração das opções disponíveis no mercado para os gestores poderem utilizar, os argumentos a serem citados mediante aos achados dos motivos de adoção e os possíveis problemas que poderão ter relacionados nas barreiras identificadas. A academia pode utilizar as barreiras e os motivos identificados para estudos de mitigação e potencialização

- by Irapuan Gloria Junior and +1
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- Project Management, Lean Project Delivery, Software Project Management, Business Models

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

ABSTRACT
This paper demonstrates that Lean management
serves as a foundation to leverage innovation
throughout the healthcare projects. An
organisation that successfully accommodates
both Lean and innovation will gain higher
competitive advantage and reach long-term
sustainability. Innovation in the healthcare sector
in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is encouraged
through responses to the challenges of patient
needs and government pressure on the
organisations towards innovation and
sustainability concerns. The objective of the
paper is to investigate critical success factors
(CSFs) for effective diffusion of Lean innovation
in healthcare projects in the UAE. A conceptual
model is developed to explain the CSFs for
diffusion of Lean innovation in the healthcare
projects. A public hospital that implemented
Lean innovation projects in the UAE was selected
as a case study and the data provided through
the interviews were reviewed and analysed. It is
concluded that the successful implementation of
Lean innovation had outstanding implications: It
has markedly and sustainably decreased patient
access and waiting time, improved safety and
patient satisfaction and supported the hospital
culture of empowering front-line caregivers. The
championing role of leadership commitment and
management support, and employee
involvement across all levels is required for
successful implementation.

- by Ala'a Abuhejleh and +2
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- Project Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Thinking, Public Health

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior
- by Paul Tilley
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction

Project management can be viewed as having developed over 3 distinct time frames, or Eras, in response to the evolving nature and needs of projects over time. Viewing project management through the framework of the 3 Eras provides a number of useful insights described in this article. Conventional project management, as codified by the Project Management Institute, spans the first two Eras. It has two fundamental gaps, preventing the satisfactory management and execution of today's complex and dynamic capital projects. Understanding these gaps explains why some traditional responses to recover from cost and schedule overruns in projects do not work. We describe how Project Production Management (PPM) provides the two missing elements of conventional project management. We conclude with the perspective that PPM ushers in a new third era of project management to address today's complex major projects operating in dynamic environments.

- by Ram Shenoy
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- Project Management, Operations Management, Operations Research, Lean Project Delivery

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

No presente trabalho analisa-se a estratégia de distribuição de uma fábrica em parceria com uma empresa de transportes rodoviários, com a utilização da sua frota e rede física, para uma determinada operação de grande demanda com característticas sazonais. No desenvolvimento do trabalho se inicia com uma discussão da interação e parceria para a consolidação da cadeia de suprimentos e sobre a escolha do modal de transporte, considerando esses dois itens como essenciais para obtenção de bons resultados. Através da pesquisa podemos observar aspectos da cadeia de suprimentos, da composição da rede de transportes e das operações realizadas, enfatizando a importância do tema para as organizações. A pesquisa se configura como exploratória, com o desenvolvimento de um estudo de caso, no qual se teve a oportunidade de entender o conceito de formação canal de distribuição, com a descrição de algumas operações e técnicas específicas da área e com a proposição de indicadores de desempenho que podem ser utilizadas como um instrumento eficaz na gestão de logística em outras empresas.

- by Thiago Souza Araujo
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- Lean Project Delivery, Logistics, Brazil, Marketing Management

Purpose - The construction industry has been subject to substantial criticism for its short term “hit-and-run” relationships which are focused on win-lose situations. Despite the wide recognition of these problems the industry persistently resists the radical demanded of it. Therefore, the main purposes of this study are twofold. First, to investigate why this might be the case by reviewing the governance problem confronting clients and decision makers in construction procurement, as conceptualised in Transaction Cost Economics (TCE). Secondly, to critically analyse and question the efficiency and effectiveness of various safeguarding approaches, which are taken for granted and commonly practiced in construction, from a lean perspective

- by Dr. Saad Sarhan and +2
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- Transactional Analysis, Construction Management, Lean Project Delivery, Lean Production (Production)

Draft – for Architectural Engineering and Design Management Special Issue on Integrated Design & Development Systems (IDDS) ... © Alan Mossman, Glenn Ballard & Christine Pasquire 2010 ... Alan Mossman, Glenn Ballard & Christine Pasquire1... more

- by Alan Mossman and +1
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- Lean Project Delivery, Lean Construction, target value Design, Set Based Design

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate cost overruns in the Olympic Games. To do so, we examined the costs of the Games over half a century, including both summer and winter Olympics. We looked at the evolution of final reported costs and compared these to the costs established in the Games bids, submitted to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) up to seven years before the Games occurred. In so doing we established the largest dataset of its kind, and documented for the first time in a consistent fashion the costs and cost overruns for the Olympic Games, from 1960 to 2012. We discovered that the Games stand out in two distinct ways compared to other megaprojects: (1) The Games overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No other type of megaproject is this consistent regarding cost overrun. Other project types are typically on budget from time to time, but not the Olympics. (2) With an average cost overrun in real terms of 179 per cent – and 324 per cent in nominal terms – overruns in the Games have historically been significantly larger than for other types of megaprojects, including infrastructure, construction, ICT, and dams. The data thus show that for a city and nation to decide to host the Olympic Games is to take on one of the most financially risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril. For the London 2012 Games, we find that: (1) With sports-related real costs currently estimated at USD14.8 billion, London is on track to become the most costly Olympics ever. (2) With a projected cost overrun of 101 per cent in real terms, overrun for London is below the historical average for the Games, but not significantly so. (3) The London cost overrun is, however, significantly higher than overruns for recent Games since 1999. London therefore is reversing a positive trend of falling cost overruns for the Games.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior