Population Dynamics Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking o...

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- Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Biology

The local densities of heterospecifics and conspecifics are known to have profound effects on the dynamics of many benthic species, including rates of settlement and early post-settlement survivorship. We described the early life history of the Caribbean coral, Siderastrea radians by tracking the population dynamics from recently settled planulae to juveniles. Through three years of observation, settlement correlated with the abundance of other benthic organisms, principally turf algae (negatively) and crustose coralline algae (positively). In addition, adult density showed independent effects on coral settlement and early post-settlement survivorship. Settlement rates increased across low levels of adult cover and saturated at a maximum around 10% cover. Early post-settlement survivorship decreased with adult cover, revealing structuring density dependence in coral settlers. The earliest life stages of corals are defined by low survivorship, with survivorship increasing appreciably with colony size. However, recent settlers (one-polyp individuals, ,1 year old) are more likely to grow into two-polyp juveniles than older single polyps (.1 year old) that were delayed in their development. The early benthic phase of corals is defined by a severe demographic bottleneck for S. radians, with appreciable density-dependent and density-independent effects on survivorship. For effective management and restoration of globally imperiled coral reefs, we must focus more attention on this little studied, but dynamic, early life history period of corals.

- by Mark Vermeij
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- Ecology, Population Dynamics, Anthozoa, Settlement

Whether predators can limit their prey has been a topic of scientific debate for decades. Traditionally it was believed that predators take only wounded, sick, old or otherwise low-quality individuals, and thus have little impact on prey populations. However, there is increasing evidence that, at least under certain circumstances, vertebrate predators may indeed limit prey numbers. This potential role of predators as limiting factors of prey populations has created conflicts between predators and human hunters, because the hunters may see predators as competitors for the same resources. A particularly acute conflict has emerged over the past few decades between gamebird hunters and birds of prey in Europe. As a part of a European-wide research project, we reviewed literature on the relationships between birds of prey and gamebirds. We start by analysing available data on the diets of 52 European raptor and owl species. There are some 32 species, mostly specialist predators feeding on small mammals, small passerine birds or insects, which never or very rarely include game animals (e.g. hares, rabbits, gamebirds) in their diet. A second group (20 species) consists of medium-sized and large raptors which prey on game, but for which the proportion in the diet varies temporally and spatially. Only three raptor species can have rather large proportions of gamebirds in their diet, and another seven species may utilise gamebirds locally to a great extent. We point out that the percentage of a given prey species in the diet of an avian predator does not necessarily reflect the impact of that predator on densities of prey populations. Next, we summarise available data on the numerical responses of avian predators to changing gamebird numbers. In half of these studies, no numerical response was found, while in the remainder a response was detected such that either raptor density or breeding success increased with density of gamebirds. Data on the functional responses of raptors were scarce. Most studies of the interaction between raptors and gamebird populations give some estimate of the predation rate (per cent of prey population taken by predator), but less often do they evaluate the subsequent reduction in the pre-harvest population or the potential limiting effect on breeding numbers. The few existing studies indicate that, under certain conditions, raptor predation may limit gamebird populations and reduce gamebird harvests. However, the number and extent of such studies are too modest to draw firm conclusions. Furthermore, their geographical bias to northern Europe, where predator-prey communities are typically simpler than in the south, precludes extrapolation to more diverse southern European ecosystems. There is an urgent need to develop further studies, particularly in southern Europe, to determine the functional and numerical responses of raptors to gamebird populations in species and environments other than those already evaluated in existing studies. Furthermore, additional field experiments are needed in which raptor and possibly also mammalian predator numbers are manipulated on a sufficiently large spatial and temporal scale. Other aspects that have been little studied are the role of predation by the non-breeding part of the raptor population, or floaters, on the breeding success and survival of gamebirds, as well as the effect of intra-guild predation. Finally there is a need for further research on practical methods to reduce raptor predation on gamebirds and thus reduce conflict between raptor conservation and gamebird management.

- by Pedro Beja
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- Population Dynamics, Raptors, Literature Review, Biological Sciences

We developed a database of 10 wild vertebrate populations whose declines to extinction were monitored over at least 12 years. We quantitatively characterized the final declines of these well-monitored populations and tested key theoretical predictions about the process of extinction, obtaining two primary results. First, we found evidence of logarithmic scaling of time-to-extinction as a function of population size for each of the 10 populations. Second, two lines of evidence suggested that these extinction-bound populations collectively exhibited dynamics akin to those theoretically proposed to occur in extinction vortices. Specifically, retrospective analyses suggested that a population size of n individuals within a decade of extinction was somehow less valuable to persistence than the same population size was earlier. Likewise, both year-to-year rates of decline and year-to-year variability increased as the time-to-extinction decreased. Together, these results provide key empirical insights into extinction dynamics, an important topic that has received extensive theoretical attention.

- by Elizabeth Holmes
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- Ecology, Population Dynamics, Computer Simulation, Vertebrates

The efficient and effective monitoring of individuals and populations is critically dependent on correct species identification. While this point may seem obvious, identifying the majority of the more than 100 natural enemies involved in the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana -SBW) food web remains a non-trivial endeavor. Insect parasitoids play a major role in the processes governing the population dynamics of SBW throughout eastern North America. However, these species are at the leading edge of the taxonomic impediment and integrating standardized identification capacity into existing field programs would provide clear benefits. We asked to what extent DNA barcoding the SBW food web would alter our understanding of the diversity and connectence of the food web and the frequency of generalists vs. specialists in different forest habitats. We DNA barcoded over 10% of the insects collected from the SBW food web in three New Brunswick forest plots from 1983 to 1993. For 30% of these specimens, we amplified at least one additional nuclear region. When the nodes of the food web were estimated based on barcode divergences (using molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTU) or phylogenetic diversity (PD) -the food web became much more diverse and connectence was reduced. We tested one measure of food web structure (the ''bird feeder effect'') and found no difference compared to the morphologically based predictions. Many, but not all, of the presumably polyphagous parasitoids now appear to be morphologically-cryptic hostspecialists. To our knowledge, this project is the first to barcode a food web in which interactions have already been welldocumented and described in space, time and abundance. It is poised to be a system in which field-based methods permit the identification capacity required by forestry scientists. Food web barcoding provided an effective tool for the accurate identification of all species involved in the cascading effects of future budworm outbreaks. Integrating standardized barcodes within food webs may ultimately change the face of community ecology. This will be most poignantly felt in food webs that have not yet been quantified. Here, more accurate and precise connections will be within the grasp of any researcher for the first time.

- by Eldon Eveleigh and +1
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- Community Ecology, Population Dynamics, Biodiversity, Multidisciplinary
- by Pinazo-hernandis Sacramento
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- Psychology, Nursing, Geriatrics, Social Work

Omnivory is an important interaction that has been the centre of numerous theoretical and empirical studies in recent years. Most of these studies examine the conditions necessary for coexistence between an omnivore and an intermediate consumer. Trait variation in ecological interactions (competition and predator tolerance) among intermediate consumers has not been considered in previous empirical studies despite the evidence that variation in species-specific traits can have important community-level effects. 2. I conducted a multifactorial microcosm experiment using species from the Sarracenia purpurea phytotelmata community, organisms that inhabit the water collected within its modified leaves. The basal trophic level consisted of bacterial decomposers, the second trophic level (intermediate consumers) consisted of protozoa and rotifers, and the third trophic level (omnivore) were larvae of the pitcher plant mosquito Wyeomyia smithii . Trophic level number (1, 2 and 3), resources (low and high), omnivore density (low and high) and intermediate consumer (monoculture of five protozoa and rotifers) identity were manipulated. Abundance of the basal trophic level, intermediate consumers, and growth of the omnivore were measured, as well as time to extinction (intermediate consumers) and time to pupation (mosquito larvae).

- by Jamie Kneitel
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- Population Dynamics, Animal Ecology, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences

The consequences of the social welfare function of Bentham and Mill (B-M) for optimal population size are explored when individuals' utility is a function of own consumption, the number of progeny, and the welfare of those children.

- by Marc Nerlove
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- Geography, Demography, Economics, Population Dynamics

We report rapid change of morphology and mitochondrial genes in white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) in the Chicago (Illinois, USA) region. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA COX2 from 55 museum skins of white-footed mice caught in the Chicago area since 1855 and from 44 mice recently trapped in the same locations. We found consistent directional genotype replacement at five separate collection locations. We later focused on a single one of these locations (Volo Bog State Natural Area) and sequenced mitochondrial D-loop control region from 58 museum skins of mice collected in 1903-1976 and 32 mice recently trapped there. We found complete and more recent replacement of D-loop haplotypes, apparently occurring between 1976 and 2001. We tested whether these genetic changes were mirrored by changes in morphology by comparing 15 external and cranial traits. We found no significant morphological differences between mice collected in 1903-1976; however, mice collected in 2001-2003 showed 9 of 15 measurements to be significantly changed relative to the earlier samples. Recent mice were longer in total length, with broader, longer noses, and longer but shallower skulls 1 . Discriminant function analysis allowed for 100% correct classification using these traits. Principal components analysis shows variance over time is well distributed across both external and cranial measures. The sequential replacements of haplotypes and the rapid change of morphology can best be explained by replacement of the regional population with immigrants from genetically distinct neighbouring populations, likely facilitated by the large environmental changes occurring over the time period. Replacement with genotypes from external populations may be a common mechanism of evolution of newly adaptive local forms in an increasingly human-impacted world.

- by Robert Lacy
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- Genetics, Morphometrics, Molecular Evolution, Principal Component Analysis

This report presents the updated sizes, trends and spatial distributions of the breeding populations of 17 seabird species breeding in Norway and Svalbard. The analyses are based on available census and monitoring data from SEAPOP; the Norwegian monitoring and mapping program for seabirds. In addition, the report presents results from a species-specific literature review of the most important prey items and drivers of population change. The report documents large-scale decadal changes in the seabird communities along the coast of Norway and Svalbard. A division of the populations into five geographical regions (North Sea & Skagerrak; Norwegian Sea; Barents Sea; Bjørnøya; and Spitsbergen) was used as a basis for the analyses of population dynamics from 1980 to present. 13 of the 35 regional seabird populations assessed have declined by more than 50% the last 25 years. 5 regional populations increased by more than 100% in the same period, while 8 populations showed large decadal fluctuations. Several populations were not assessed due to the lack of census and/or monitoring data. In order to improve the dataset, it is recommended that a census of breeding seabirds from Vesterålen to the Swedish border is completed. Declining populations were found in all regions and included all major ecological groups (i.e.; Pelagic surface-feeding (Ps), Pelagic diving (Pd), Coastal surface-feeding (Cs), Coastal benthicfeeding (Cb) and Coastal diving (Cd) seabirds). Populations with more than a 50% decline the last 25 years were: Common Gull (Cs), Lesser Black-backed Gull (Ps) and Atlantic Puffin (Pd) in the North Sea & Skagerrak; Great Cormorant (Cd), Common Eider (Cb), Black-legged Kittiwake (Ps) and Common Guillemot (Pd) in the Norwegian Sea; Herring Gull (Cs), Great Blackbacked Gull (Cs), Black-legged Kittiwake (Ps) and Brünnich's Guillemot (Pd) in the Barents Sea; Northern Fulmar (Ps) and Glaucous Gull (Ps) on Bjørnøya; and Brünnich's Guillemot (Pd) on Spitsbergen.

- by Geir H R Systad
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- Geography, Population Dynamics, Seabird
- by Hiromi Ohta and +1
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- Population Dynamics, Transmission Electron Microscopy, Cryopreservation, Endangered Species

We examined the effects of wild ungulates (deer and elk) and domestic sheep browsing on the growth, structure, and reproductive effort of two common willow species, Salix boothii and S. geyeriana, in a montane northeast Oregon riparian zone. With the use of exclosures, large herbivore effects on willows were studied in an area browsed by native mammals only and an adjacent area in which domestic sheep also lightly grazed during summer months. Growth variables were repeatedly measured on individual plants over a 5-year period to understand physiognomic and flowering responses of native willows to different levels of browsing pressure. At the beginning of the study, all willows were intensely browsed but were significantly taller in the area browsed only by native mammals than in the area also grazed by sheep (69 versus 51 cm, respectively). Willows inside exclosures responded with pronounced increases in height, crown area, and basal stem diameters while the stature of browsed plants outside exclosures stayed constant or declined. In the area browsed by both sheep and wild herbivores, the size of browsed plants remained at pre-treatment levels (<60 cm in height) for the duration of the study. There was no significant difference in growth rates of enclosed willows, indicating that current herbivory was the primary cause of growth retardation in the study area. Foliar area was strongly correlated with basal stem numbers for enclosed plants but much less so for browsed plants. Willows inside exclosures had more than twice as much foliar area per stem. Stem diameters were a positive function of crown area: stemnumber ratios, suggesting lower photosynthetic potential was correlated with diminished radial growth among browsed plants. No flowering was observed until 2 years after exclusion when plants inside all exclosures and browsed willows in the wild ungulate area responded with a large pulse in flowering. Browsed plants in the sheep + wild ungulate area did not flower. The number of catkins produced per plant was significantly associated with willow height and plants <70 cm in height did not flower, thus suggesting a size threshold for reproduction in these species. Our results suggest that even relatively light levels of domestic livestock grazing, when coupled with intense wild ungulate browsing, can strongly affect plant structure and limit reproduction of riparian willows.

- by Boone Kauffman
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- Ecology, Population Dynamics, Growth, Oecologia
- by Forrest Brem
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- Population Dynamics, Biodiversity, Multidisciplinary, Panama
- by Robert Myers
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- Fisheries, Science, Population Dynamics, Multidisciplinary
- by Todd Oakley
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- Ecology, Population Dynamics, Community, Biodiversity

A Sick Newborn Care Unit (SNCU), established in a district hospital in India, substantially reduced the neonatal mortality rate in the district; it, however, suffered from a dearth of trained nurses. Local girls with 10-12 years of school education underwent structured and hands-on training for six months, followed by a six-month internship at the SNCU and were assigned to it as stipendiary ‘Newborn Aides’. Based on the results of formal examinations, internal on-the-job assessment and interview of doctors, nurses, and parents and their technical skills and motivation were rated very high. Although the incremental cost of training is small, the cost of sustaining them, i.e. stipend and replacing attrition, needs to be addressed. Trained Newborn Aides may substantially alleviate human-resource constraint for SNCUs and Sick Newborn Stabilization units in smaller peripheral hospitals for care of sick newborns at an affordable cost.

- by Sutirtha Roy
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- Demography, Nutrition and Dietetics, Behavior, Evaluation
- by Jelena Marinković
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- Epidemiology, Research Methodology, Yugoslavia, Developing Countries

We investigated the sediment-related distribution of both nematodes and macrofauna on the Belgian part of the North Sea (Southern Bight of the North Sea) in order to evaluate whether both faunal groups reflect similar patterns in community composition and diversity. Fine-grained sediments (median grain size <200 mm) were inhabited by nematode communities characterised by a low diversity and dominated by non-selective deposit-feeding nematodes. Nematode communities from coarser sediments were significantly different in terms of community composition and diversity. Moreover, all nematode feeding types were present in coarser sediments. These differences were explained by the contrasting biogeochemical processes prevailing in both sediment types, rather than granulometry and food availability per se. Macrofaunal distribution patterns were different from those of the nematode communities and seem to be related to water column processes (SPM loading, food availability, hydrodynamic stress) that promote the establishment of diverse communities in the coarser sediments but not in the finest sediments. This suggests that data on nematodes and macrofauna reveal different, complementary aspects of the factors structuring the benthic ecosystem that can be of importance in assessing the ecological status of the seafloor.

Despite the great interest concerning the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning, there is virtually no knowledge as to how the diversity of decomposer microbes influences the decomposition rate of soil organic matter. We established a microcosm study in which the number of soil fungi was investigated in relation to the system's ability to (i) degrade raw coniferous forest humus, and (ii) use resources that were either added to the systems or released into the soils after a disturbance (drought). With the exception of the most diverse treatment, in each of the six replicates of each of the six diversity treatments (1, 3, 6, 12, 24 or 43 taxa), fungal taxa were randomly chosen from a pool of 43 commonly isolated fungal species of raw humus. Two months after initiation of the study CO 2 production increased as fungal diversity increased, but in the species-poor end of the diversity gradient only. Addition of various energy resources to the microcosms generally increased the level of soil respiration but did not affect the shape of the diversity-CO 2 -production curve. Rewetting the soil after severe drought resulted in a rapid flush of CO 2 , particularly in the most diverse communities. The biomass of the fungi in the non-disturbed soils, and soil NH 4 -N concentration and soil pH in both disturbed and non-disturbed systems were slightly but significantly higher in the diverse than in the simple systems. Fungal species richness had no influence on the organic matter content of the humus at the end of the experiment. The results suggest that the functional efficiency of fungal communities can increase with the number of fungal taxa. This diversity effect was, however, significant at the species-poor end of the diversity gradient only, which implies considerable functional equivalency (redundancy) among the decomposer fungi.

- by Heikki Setälä
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- Carbon Dioxide, Treatment, Ecology, Population Dynamics

Evolutionary studies in plant and animal breeding are aimed at understanding the structure and organization of genetic variations of species. We have identiWed and characterized a genomic sequence in Phaseolus vulgaris of 1,200 bp (PvSHP1) that is homologous to SHATTER-PROOF-1 (SHP1), a gene involved in control of fruit shattering in Arabidopsis thaliana. The PvSHP1 fragment was mapped to chromosome Pv06 in P. vulgaris and is linked to the Xower and seed color gene V. AmpliWcation of the PvSHP1 sequence from the most agronomically important legume species showed a high degree of interspecies diversity in the introns within the Phaseoleae, while the coding region was conserved across distant taxa. Sequencing of the PvSHP1 sequence in a sample of 91 wild and domesticated genotypes that span the geographic distribution of this species in the centers of origin showed that PvSHP1 is highly polymorphic and, therefore, particularly useful to further investigate the origin and domestication history of P. vulgaris. Our data conWrm the gene pool structure seen in P. vulgaris along with independent domestication processes in the Andes and Mesoamerica; they provide additional evidence for a single domestication event in Mesoamerica. Moreover, our results support the Mesoamerican origin of this species. Finally, we have developed three indel-spanning markers that will be very useful for bean germplasm characterization, and particularly to trace the distribution of the domesticated Andean and Mesoamerican gene pools. Communicated by B. Diers.

- by Elena Bitocchi and +1
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- Technology, Polymorphism, Phylogeography, Population Genetics

Climate change is one of the most influential drivers of biodiversity. Speciesspecific differences in the reaction to climate change can become particularly important when interacting species are considered. Current studies have evidenced temporal mismatching of interacting species at single points in space, and recently two investigations showed that species interactions are relevant for their future ranges. However, so far we are not aware that the ranges of interacting species may become substantially spatially mismatched. We developed separate ecological-niche models for a monophagous butterfly (Boloria titania) and its larval host plant (Polygonum bistorta) based on monthly interpolated climate data, land-cover classes, and soil data at a 10 0 -grid resolution. We show that all of three chosen global-change scenarios, which cover a broad range of potential developments in demography, socio-economics, and technology during the 21st century from moderate to intermediate to maximum change, will result in a pronounced spatial mismatch between future niche spaces of these species. The butterfly may expand considerably its future range (by 124-258%) if the host plant has unlimited dispersal, but it could lose 52-75% of its current range if the host plant is not able to fill its projected ecological niche space, and 79-88% if the butterfly also is assumed to be highly dispersal limited. These findings strongly suggest that climate change has the potential to disrupt trophic interactions because co-occurring species do not necessarily react in a similar manner to global change, having important consequences at ecological and evolutionary time scales.

- by Josef Settele
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- Geography, Climate Change, Modeling, Forecasting

Managing endangered species often involves evaluating the relative impacts of multiple anthropogenic and ecological pressures. This challenge is particularly formidable for cetaceans, which spend the majority of their time underwater. Noninvasive physiological approaches can be especially informative in this regard. We used a combination of fecal thyroid (T3) and glucocorticoid (GC) hormone measures to assess two threats influencing the endangered southern resident killer whales (SRKW; Orcinus orca) that frequent the inland waters of British Columbia, Canada and Washington, U.S.A. Glucocorticoids increase in response to nutritional and psychological stress, whereas thyroid hormone declines in response to nutritional stress but is unaffected by psychological stress. The inadequate prey hypothesis argues that the killer whales have become prey limited due to reductions of their dominant prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The vessel impact hypothesis argues that high numbers of vessels in close proximity to the whales cause disturbance via psychological stress and/or impaired foraging ability. The GC and T3 measures supported the inadequate prey hypothesis. In particular, GC concentrations were negatively correlated with short-term changes in prey availability. Whereas, T3 concentrations varied by date and year in a manner that corresponded with more long-term prey availability. Physiological correlations with prey overshadowed any impacts of vessels since GCs were lowest during the peak in vessel abundance, which also coincided with the peak in salmon availability. Our results suggest that identification and recovery of strategic salmon populations in the SRKW diet are important to effectively promote SRKW recovery.

- by Michael Ford and +1
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- Population Dynamics, Endangered Species, Multidisciplinary, Accidents

For some salmon populations, the individual and population effects of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) transmission from sea cage salmon farms is probably mediated by predation, which is a primary natural source of mortality of juvenile salmon. We examined how sea lice infestation affects predation risk and mortality of juvenile pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon, and developed a mathematical model to assess the implications for population dynamics and conservation. A risk-taking experiment indicated that infected juvenile pink salmon accept a higher predation risk in order to obtain foraging opportunities. In a schooling experiment with juvenile chum salmon, infected individuals had increased nearest-neighbor distances and occupied peripheral positions in the school. Prey selection experiments with cutthroat trout (O. clarkii ) predators indicated that infection reduces the ability of juvenile pink salmon to evade a predatory strike. Group predation experiments with coho salmon (O. kisutch) feeding on juvenile pink or chum salmon indicated that predators selectively consume infected prey. The experimental results indicate that lice may increase the rate of prey capture but not the handling time of a predator. Based on this result, we developed a mathematical model of sea lice and salmon population dynamics in which parasitism affects the attack rate in a type II functional response. Analysis of the model indicates that: (1) the estimated mortality of wild juvenile salmon due to sea lice infestation is probably higher than previously thought; (2) predation can cause a simultaneous decline in sea louse abundance on wild fish and salmon productivity that could mislead managers and regulators; and (3) compensatory mortality occurs in the saturation region of the type II functional response where prey are abundant because predators increase mortality of parasites but not overall predation rates. These findings indicate that predation is an important component of salmon-louse dynamics and has implications for estimating mortality, reducing infection, and developing conservation policy.

- by Stephanie J Peacock and +1
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- Population Dynamics, Risk Taking, Fish Diseases, Food Chemistry

Animal population dynamics in open systems are aVected not only by agents of mortality and the inXuence of species interactions on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss rates of two mayXy species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience diVerent abiotic conditions during larval development. Our goals were to generate hypotheses relating predation to variation in prey population dynamics and to evaluate alternative mechanisms to explain such variation. While neither loss rates nor abundance of the species that develops during snowmelt (Baetis bicaudatus) varied systematically with Wsh, loss rates of the species that develops during baseXow (Baetis B) were higher in streams containing brook trout than streams without Wsh; and surprisingly, larvae of this species were most abundant in trout streams. This counter-intuitive pattern could not be explained by a trophic cascade, because densities of intermediate predators (stoneXies) did not diVer between Wsh and Wshless streams and predation by trout on stoneXies was negligible. A statistical model estimated that higher recruitment and accelerated development enables Baetis B to maintain larger populations in trout streams despite higher mortality from predation. Experimental estimates suggested that predation by trout potentially accounts for natural losses of Baetis B, but not Baetis bicaudatus. Predation by stoneXies on Baetis is negligible in Wsh streams, but could make an important contribution to observed losses of both species in Wshless streams. Non-predatory sources of loss were higher for B. bicaudatus in trout streams, and for Baetis B in Wshless streams. We conclude that predation alone cannot explain variation in population dynamics of either species; and the relative importance of predation is species-and environment-speciWc compared to non-predatory losses, such as other agents of mortality and non-consumptive eVects of predators.

- by Barbara Peckarsky
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- Life history, Ecology, Population Dynamics, Rivers

The impact of widespread international labor migration on the family in Tonga is examined. The author describes how migration has affected gender and kinship relations. She also examines the ways in which church and state ideologies encourage the development of the nuclear family, while overseas labor migration creates a need to maintain extended support systems among family networks.

- by Christine Gailey
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- Religion, Demography, Anthropology, Government

Parasites with complex life cycles are expected to manipulate the behaviour of their intermediate hosts (IHs), which increase their predation rate and facilitate the transmission to definitive hosts (DHs). This ability, however, is a doubleedged sword when the parasite can also be transmitted vertically in the IH. In this situation, as the manipulation of the IH behaviour increases the IH death rate, it conflicts with vertical transmission, which requires healthy and reproducing IHs. The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii, a widespread pathogen, combines both trophic and vertical transmission strategies. Is parasite manipulation of host behaviour still adaptive in this situation? We model the evolution of the IH manipulation by T. gondii to study the conflict between these two routes of transmission under different epidemiological situations. Model outputs show that manipulation is particularly advantageous for virulent strains and in epidemic situations, and that different levels of manipulation may evolve depending on the sex of the IH and the transmission routes considered. These results may help to understand the variability of strain characteristics encountered for T. gondii and may extend to other trophically transmitted parasites.

- by Sylvain Gandon
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- Biology, Population Dynamics, Toxoplasma, Medicine

The Formosan landlocked salmon (Oncorhynchus masou formosanus) are at a high risk of extinction, and the sustained maintenance of the population will soon depend on aquaculture systems, which use cryopreservation of spermatozoa to increase genetic diversity. We investigated the effectiveness of dimethyi sulfoxide (DMSO), dimethyl-acetamide (DMA), and methanol as cryoprotectants in combination with 300 mM glucose as extender on the freezing of Formosan landlocked salmon spermatozoa. We also evaluated the morphological changes of Formosan landlocked salmon spermatozoa after their immediate dilution in the 300 mM glucose-DMSO extender and after freeze-thawing. The spermatozoa frozen with DMSO as a cryoprotectant showed significantly higher post-thaw motility and fertility than spermatozoa frozen with DMA or methanol. The fertilization capacity of frozen-thawed Formosan landlocked salmon was comparable to that of fresh spermatozoa. Intersubspecies fertilization trials between cryopreserved Formosan landlocked salmon spermatozoa and Amago salmon eggs showed high fertilization rates. Based on the findings, the potential value &using sperm bank to safeguard this endangered species is discussed.

- by Hiromi Ohta and +1
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- Population Dynamics, Transmission Electron Microscopy, Cryopreservation, Endangered Species

This article explores the age difference of marrying and divorcing couples, calculated by subtracting the wife's age from the husband's. Age difference is of interest in the study of families and partnership behaviour. It is also important because of its link with broader socio-demographic changes, such as population ageing, delayed fertility and the provision of care. The main finding is that between 1963 and 2005, the distribution of age differences for all marriages is very similar in each year to the distribution of age differences for the subset of couples who married in that year, but have since divorced. While there is some evidence of small variations in the proportion of marriages that end in divorce by age difference, there does not seem to be evidence of a strong association.

- by Steve Smallwood
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- Psychology, Demography, Population Dynamics, Medicine

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N ¼ 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N ¼ 18 3 368 ¼ 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, ''single-region'' trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (À28%; 95% CI: À34% to À21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (À43%; 95% CI: À48% to À39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the ''mostly increasing'' period prior to 1998 than during the ''steeply declining'' period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R 2. 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R. 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

- by Blair Witherington
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- Population Dynamics, Endangered Species, Biological Sciences, Seasonality

Several ecological studies have tried to model the population dynamics of the ungulate migratory animals individually without including the food and predation factors in the models. In this paper, we analyze the population dynamics for herbivores, carnivores and the grass volume using the secondary data from the years 1996-2006. The lions' data didn't correlate with the model. Due to that, the sensitivity analysis was carried out for the parameters. The herbivores predation on grass reduces the volume of grass. The crocodile predation on herbivores decreases the population of herbivores. Then the crocodile population increases, when its' natural death rate in the absence of prey decreases. The herbivores population increases as its' intrinsic logistic rate increases. There is a trend of Grass periodic increase and decrease as the rainfall constant value changes periodically. The herbivores population decreases as the lion predation on them increases. And lastly, the lions' population decreases as the natural death rate of lion in the absence of prey increased.

- by Paul Cross
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- Population Dynamics, Multidisciplinary, Disease Outbreaks, Computer Simulation
- by Feng Chen
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- Microbiology, Population Genetics, Aquatic Microbial Ecology, Ecology
- by Kathleen Treseder
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- Genetics, Soil, Ecology, Population Dynamics

Nitrogen fertilization and winter pruning are commonly used to control crop production in peach [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch] orchards. They are also known to affect the dynamics of Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Homoptera: Aphididae) aphid populations via bottom-up regulation processes. Interactions between crops and pests can cause complex system behaviour in response to management practices. An integrated approach will therefore improve the understanding of the effects of these two cultural practices on aphid and peach performances.

- by Nadine Hilgert
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- Pest Management, Modeling, Interaction, Population Dynamics

This study addresses the potential risks to the aquatic ecosystem posed by pesticides currently used in The Netherlands. The study used a novel method to predict aquatic exposure to pesticides based on a geographic information system (GIS) map of agricultural land use, comprising 51 crops used in open-canopy areas. Through the application of species-sensitivity distributions for aquatic organisms, in combination with rules for mixture-toxicity calculation, the modeled exposure results were transformed to risk estimates for aquatic species. The majority of the predicted risks were caused by pesticides applied to potato cropland, and approximately 95% of the predicted risk was caused by only 7 of the 261 pesticides currently used in The Netherlands. For risk verification, local toxic-risk estimates were compared with observed species composition in field ditches. The field verification study was not able to draw firm conclusions regarding the predicted impact of pesticide use on overall biodiversity. A toxicity-related shift from sensitive to more tolerant or opportunistic species could be observed for a few species.

- by Dick de Zwart
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- Agriculture, Population Dynamics, Risk assessment, Biological Sciences

Epidermal changes caused by a chytridiomycete fungus (Chytridiomycota; Chytridiales) were found in sick and dead adult anurans collected from montane rain forests in Queensland (Australia) and Panama during mass mortality events associated with significant population declines. We also have found this new disease associated with morbidity and mortality in wild and captive anurans from additional locations in Australia and Central America. This is the first report of parasitism of a vertebrate by a member of the phylum Chytridiomycota. Experimental data support the conclusion that cutaneous chytridiomycosis is a fatal disease of anurans, and we hypothesize that it is the proximate cause of these recent amphibian declines.

- by dip putradi
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- Tropical Ecology, Australia, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Population Dynamics

In this study, I consider variables associated with an individual’s most recent move into his or her current residence as predictors of neighborhood attachment. Using the 1978–1979 Seattle Community Attachment Survey, I find that elements of the mobility experience such as an individual’s past history of migration, the motivations for moving, the amount of time involved in the move, and the distance traveled during the move have an effect on shortand long-term neighborhood attachment patterns independent of residential stability and investment predictors. The findings imply that psychosocial factors such as familiarity with the environment, increased premove exposure to the new environment, and perceived control during instances of transition have some impact on individuals’ postmove attitudes and behaviors, and suggest that researchers should look beyond traditional “types of people” explanations of urban neighborhood attachment.

- by Kin Meh
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- Demography, Population Dynamics, Adolescent, Social Class

Early theoretical work on disease invasion typically assumed large and well-mixed host populations. Many human and wildlife systems, however, have small groups with limited movement among groups. In these situations, the basic reproductive number, R 0 , is likely to be a poor predictor of a disease pandemic because it typically does not account for group structure and movement of individuals among groups. We extend recent work by combining the movement of hosts, transmission within groups, recovery from infection and the recruitment of new susceptibles into a stochastic model of disease in a host metapopulation. We focus on how recruitment of susceptibles affects disease invasion and how population structure can affect the frequency of superspreading events (SSEs). We show that the frequency of SSEs may decrease with the reduced movement and the group sizes due to the limited number of susceptible individuals available. Classification tree analysis of the model results illustrates the hierarchical nature of disease invasion in host metapopulations. First, the pathogen must effectively transmit within a group (R 0 O1), and then the pathogen must persist within a group long enough to allow for movement among the groups. Therefore, the factors affecting disease persistence-such as infectious period, group size and recruitment of new susceptibles-are as important as the local transmission rates in predicting the spread of pathogens across a metapopulation.

- by Bii Ball II
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- Population Dynamics, Multidisciplinary, Disease Outbreaks, Computer Simulation

ABSTRACT. The assumption of interregional equilibrium in migration research has recently been attacked. At issue is the motivation for on-going migration if rents and wags accurately compensate for spatial amenity variations; but if rents and wages fail to accurately compensate potential migrants, then amenity valuations must be flawed. We here show that arguments supporting substantial disequilibrium in the US. economy are unconvincing. The substantive issues are then clarified by a model which allows for both equilibrium and disequilibrium migration. We conclude that intertemporally systematic migration stems predominantly from equilibrium forces.

- by peter mueser
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- Geography, Human Geography, Demography, Economics

To date, bioethics and health policy scholarship has given little consideration to questions of aging and intergenerational justice in the developing world. Demographic changes are precipitating rapid population aging in developing nations, however, and ethical issues regarding older people's claim to scarce healthcare resources must be addressed. This paper posits that the traditional arguments about generational justice and age-based rationing of healthcare resources, which were developed primarily in more industrialized nations, fail to adequately address the unique challenges facing older persons in developing nations. Existing philosophical approaches to age-based resource allocation underemphasize the importance of older persons for developing countries and fail to adequately consider the rights and interests of older persons in these settings. Ultimately, the paper concludes that the most appropriate framework for thinking about generational justice in developing nations is a rights-based approach that allows for the interests of all age groups, including the oldest, to be considered in the determination of health resource allocation.

- by Summer McGee
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- Economics, Philosophy, Applied Ethics, Bioethics

Despite their ubiquitous distribution in tectonically active coastal zones, shallow water hydrothermal vents have been less investigated than deep-sea vents. In the present study, we investigated the role of viral control and fluid emissions on prokaryote abundance, diversity, and community structure (total Archaea, total Bacteria, and sulphate-reducing bacteria) in waters and sediments surrounding the caldera of four different shallow-water hydrothermal vents (three located in the Mediterranean Sea and one in the Pacific Ocean). All vents, independent of their location, generally displayed a significant decrease of benthic prokaryote abundance, as well as its viable fraction, with increasing distance from the vent. Prokaryote assemblages were always dominated by Bacteria. Benthic Archaea accounted for 23–33% of total prokaryote abundance in the Mediterranean Sea and from 13 to 29% in the Pacific Ocean, whereas in the water column they accounted for 25–38%. The highest benthic bacterial ribotype richness was observed in close proximity of the vents (i.e., at 10-cm distance from the emissions), indicating that vent fluids might influence bacterial diversity in surrounding sediments. Virioplankton and viriobenthos abundances were low compared to other marine systems, suggesting that temperature and physical-chemical conditions might influence viral survival in these vent systems. We thus hypothesize that the high bacterial diversity observed in close proximity of the vents is related with the highly variable vent emissions, which could favor the coexistence of several prokaryotic species.

- by Giorgio Caramanna and +1
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- Microbiology, Microbial Ecology, Ecology, Population Dynamics

Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Cx. gelidus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus, known vectors of Japanese encephalitis (JE), are distributed in rice agroecosystems in Asian countries. Very few integrated studies on the breeding habitats of rice-field mosquitoes, including JE vectors, have been conducted in Vietnam. We investigated the mosquito fauna and potential predators in 8 rice growing areas in the Mekong Delta region of southern Vietnam, during the wet and dry seasons of 2009. Mosquitoes and their predators were collected from a variety of aquatic habitats (rice fields, ponds, wetlands, shrimp ponds, ditches, canals, and rivers). We collected 936 Culex spp. (354 Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, 240 Cx. vishnui s.l., 189 Cx. fuscocephala, and 42 Cx. gelidus), 33 Uranotaenia, 25 Anopheles, and 9 Mimomyia (4 Mi. chamberlaini) in the dry season. During the rainy season, we collected 1,232 Culex spp. (132 Cx. vishnui s.l., 66 Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, 9 Cx. gelidus, 4 Cx. fuscocephala, and 2 Cx. bitaeniorhynchus), 236 Anopheles spp. (40 An. vagus and 1 An. sinensis), and 7 Uranotaenia (3 Ur. lateralis). Heteroptera such as Micronecta, Veliidae, and Pleidae were abundant and widely distributed in both seasons. Based on a stepwise generalized linear model, the abundance of mosquitoes and their predators in rice fields was high when the rice plant length was short and water depth was shallow. Therefore, the use of insecticides during the earlier stages of rice growth should be avoided in order to preserve the predator populations.

- by trang huynh
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- Zoology, Agriculture, Population Dynamics, Vietnam

The use of archival depth telemetry as a means of remotely assessing the reproductive rates of freeranging fishes is explored. This is achieved by electronically tracking the vertical movements of individual female small spotted catsharks Scyliorhinus canicula in the natural environment, whilst simultaneously evaluating the temporal and vertical distributions of egg-laying in this species. Distinctive patterns of short-term (0·3-3·7 h), shallow-water activity are documented in the time-depth profiles of female S. canicula that occur at an appropriate depth (1·0-2·3 m) and periodicity (every 10-12 days) to represent egg-laying behaviour. Putative egg-laying behaviour was exhibited simultaneously by two individually tracked female S. canicula during late-spring and early-summer. The results highlight that, provided species behaviour is suitable and complementary methods such as previous data, laboratory experiments and field surveys can be used to validate the patterns observed, archival depth telemetry offers an unobtrusive means by which egg production and egglaying behaviour of free-living fishes can be estimated. As precise information regarding life-history parameters is difficult to obtain for free-ranging fish species, this technique could be used to improve the parameterization of species demographic models that are relevant to the management of wild fish populations.

- by David Sims
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- Zoology, Reproduction, Ecology, Population Dynamics
- by edgardo cristiano
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- Multiple sclerosis, Argentina, Population Dynamics, Adolescent

BACKGROUND: Red-billed quelea (Quelea quelea) are controlled at breeding colonies and roosts by organophosphate sprays or explosions. Contamination with organophosphates after sprays and with petroleum products and phthalates after... more

- by Robert Cheke
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- Zoology, Kinetics, Population Dynamics, Botswana

Background: Over the past quarter century, the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has increased in most European nations. However, the number of humans stricken by the disease varies from year to year. A method for predicting major increases and decreases is needed. Methods: We assembled a 25-y database of the number of human TBE victims and wildlife and climate data for the Stockholm region of Sweden, and used it to create easy-to-use mathematical models that predict increases and decreases in the number of humans stricken by TBE. Results: Our best model, which uses December precipitation and mink (Neovison vison, formerly Mustela vison) bagging figures, successfully predicted every major increase or decrease in TBE during the past quarter century, with a minimum of false alarms. However, this model was not efficient in predicting small increases and decreases. Conclusions: Predictions from our models can be used to determine when preventive and adaptive programmes should be implemented. For example, in years when the frequency of TBE in humans is predicted to be high, vector control could be intensified where infested ticks have a higher probability of encountering humans, such as at playgrounds, bathing lakes, barbecue areas and camping facilities. Because our models use only wildlife and climate data, they can be used even when the human population is vaccinated. Another advantage is that because our models employ data from previously-established databases, no additional funding for surveillance is required.

- by Jonas Waldenström and +1
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- Forecasting, Population Dynamics, Climate, Ticks

Sex differentials in infant mortality vary widely across nations. Because newborn girls are biologically advantaged in surviving to their first birthday, sex differentials in infant mortality typically arise from genetic factors that result in higher male infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, there are cases where mortality differentials arise from social or behavioral factors reflecting deliberate discrimination by adults in favor of boys over girls, resulting in atypical male to female infant mortality ratios. This cross-national study of 93 developed and developing countries uses such macrosocial theories as modernization theory, gender perspectives, human ecology, and sociobiology/evolutionary psychology to predict gender differentials in infant mortality. We find strong evidence for modernization theory, human ecology, and the evolutionary psychology of group process, but mixed evidence for gender perspectives. r

- by Edward Crenshaw
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- Sociology, Medical Sociology, Social Change, Anthropology

Les évolutions démographiques sont extrêmement contrastées selon les pays euro-péens et, à l’intérieur des pays, les dynamiques territoriales sont très différenciées. Les changements démographiques ont de nombreux effets.
[Demographic changes are extremely contrasted depending on the European countries and, within countries, the territorial dynamics are very different. Demographic change has many effects.]

- by Gérard-François DUMONT
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- Demography, European Studies, Population Dynamics

During 1997, quarterly exploratory cruises of the R/V``Archipelago'' were carried out in order to study the deep water crab Chaceon af®nis [Res. Camp. Sci. Mo Ânaco Fasc. VII (1894) 1], South of Pico island (Azores) and at the Menez Gwen hydrothermal vent area (SW of the Azores, within the Azorean Economic Exclusive Zone). The crabs were caught with bottom traps according to a speci®ed survey design. Different areas between 300 and 1200 m depth were surveyed. Information from previous collections was also compiled and analysed. A total of 1153 crabs (726 males and 427 females) were caught at depths ranging from 600 to 1100 m on rocky and/or muddy bottoms. Size ranged from 39 to 177 mm carapace length (CL), the males being larger than females. Males were relatively more abundant at depths <800 m and females relatively more abundant at depths >800 m. The greatest abundance occurred at depths from 700 to 800 m. Ovigerous females, which were consistently >70 mm CL, were found only from October to March. An annual reproductive cycle is suggested. Size at ®rst maturity for the females, was estimated to be within the size range of 83±97 mm CL. Other ecological and biological information such as distribution, morphometric aspects related to reproduction, occurrence of parasites and epibionts, are discussed, as well as by-catch species.

- by Luislis Morales Galindo
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- Reproduction, Fisheries, Crustacea, Biology