Political and security situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Middle East Research Papers (original) (raw)

The Iraq War’s enduring conflict has proven resilient in its on-and-off relationship with the US and international forces occupying. Streamlining a more sustainable counterinsurgency plan remains a critical link to securing stability... more

The Iraq War’s enduring conflict has proven resilient in its on-and-off relationship with the US and international forces occupying. Streamlining a more sustainable counterinsurgency plan remains a critical link to securing stability designed to promote Iraqi nation-rebuilding efforts. While the smart power approach to foreign policy has yet to realize its potential full effect, recruitment of younger generations into recurrent violence via Islamist co-optation persists with threat to bleed across the region. Military, diplomatic and politically weighed strategies struggle to contain the violence by advancing innovative methods to counter and disengage while supporting Iraqi democracy, not altogether unlike US operations in Afghanistan. COIN directive requires in-depth analysis of the socialization of teenage youth as they undertake transnational violence into adulthood. Nation building through better concerted and inclusive effort of relief, intelligence, military and policymaking drive is the key to tapping the potential of next generation Iraqis as immediate and future leaders. Youth at risk raised with a history of violence will otherwise require constant intervention. Policy transition moving towards internal stability and an exit strategy has the resources to launch effective social programming for political infrastructure and business strategy to guide better negotiation in resource and conflict management. Media’s role in promoting proactive social networks promises to be a game-changer for ground game where youth are enabled to access it. International support and inter-alia networking then remain to be fully realized if Iraq and the US are to emerge from the war in two pieces.

What factors drive people to choose nonviolent civil resistance to achieve human rights, peace, and justice? This Special Report offers ground-breaking knowledge about the link of colonialism, the Cold War, and the War on Terror with... more

What factors drive people to choose nonviolent
civil resistance to achieve human rights,
peace, and justice? This Special Report offers
ground-breaking knowledge about the link of
colonialism, the Cold War, and the War on Terror
with Talibanization, oppression, and human
rights violations in the northwestern tribal
areas of Pakistan. This knowledge is drawn from
three years of in-depth field work studying the
nonviolent resistance of the Pashtun Protection
Movement in Pakistan. The report provides
key takeaways to civil resistance scholars,
policymakers, civil society, and activists who are
confronting colonial phenomena and its remnants
in the form of minority suppression, violence,
exclusion, and injustice.

The partition of British India in 1947 ruptured India’s geographical contiguity with Afghanistan but not the warmth that characterized their relations; this stood in sharp contrast to Pakistan which in spite of its geographical contiguity... more

The partition of British India in 1947 ruptured India’s geographical contiguity with Afghanistan but not the warmth that characterized their relations; this stood in sharp contrast to Pakistan which in spite of its geographical contiguity as well as religious and ethnic congruity has seen its relations with Kabul for most of its history being clouded by bitterness and a deep sense of distrust. India’s role in Afghanistan has re-emerged into importance not just for Afghanistan and the region, but also as “a test case for a rising power” – India. Afghanistan’s importance for India and others is largely geopolitical, Afghanistan faces southwards down from the Hindu Kush into the Indian subcontinent, India’s immediate neighbourhood. Yet it also looks northwards down from the Hindu Kush into India’s extended neighbourhood; in which “Afghanistan is the fractious gateway to and from Central Asia, which defines the way other powers grapple and circumvent the complexities of the region”, as well as being part of what has been called the “Greater Middle East”.

In this article, the authors conduct a comparative review of the strategic imperatives driving Sino-Indian policy on Afghanistan in the post-2014 scenario. The article argues that divergent strategic imperatives make cooperation difficult... more

In this article, the authors conduct a comparative review of the
strategic imperatives driving Sino-Indian policy on Afghanistan in
the post-2014 scenario. The article argues that divergent strategic
imperatives make cooperation difficult and/or unlikely. This analysis
is based on a broader consideration of both contemporary
history and geopolitical dynamics shaping the foreign policy considerations
of these two countries, and an assessment of the
impact of ongoing bi-lateral and regional aspirations. The authors
begin by highlighting the salient dynamics that have historically
characterized and driven Indian and Chinese foreign policy in
general and on Afghanistan. They find that Afghanistan, although
not a primary focus of either state’s foreign or security policy,
historically, is increasing in importance for both; India and China
compete on a range of economic and security issues.

This article studies the Taliban regime starting in 1994, when the Taliban movement was formally established and began fighting for the control of the Government, and the terrorist attacks of the eleventh of September of 2001. It is... more

This article studies the Taliban regime starting in 1994, when the Taliban movement was formally established and began fighting for the control of the Government, and the terrorist attacks of the eleventh of September of 2001. It is usually said that the Taliban are an ethno-nationalist group or that they belong to an International Islamist network; I’ll try to refute these claims. Firstly, I will analyze the relationship between the Taliban and Pashtun communities, and the evidence for and against of considering them an ethno-nationalist movement. Secondly, I will look at the links of the Taliban with the international pan-Islamism and the particular characteristics of their interpretation of Islam.
The conclusion will be that the Taliban are a nationalist movement limited to the boundaries
of Afghanistan, without an international project or a defined ethnic policy. Their ideology is a
conservative mix between Islam and traditional Pasthun customs and habits. The main primary
sources I use are the autobiography of Abdul Salam Zaeef and the reports of the Revolutionary
Association of Women of Afghanistan (RAWA).

Instead of turning their neighbor into a liability, India and Pakistan can turn Afghanistan into an asset through constructive engagement aimed at stability in the region.

The emergence of ISIS in 2014 brought back to centre stage a series of very old and very troubling questions about the integrity and viability of the Iraqi state. However, most analysts have framed recent events in terms of their... more

The emergence of ISIS in 2014 brought back to centre stage a series of very old and very troubling questions about the integrity and viability of the Iraqi state. However, most analysts have framed recent events in terms of their immediate past and without the contextual background to explain their evolution. 'State and Society in Iraq' moves beyond this short-sighted analysis to place the complex and contested nature of Iraqi politics within a broader and deeper historical examination. In doing so, the chapters demonstrate that beyond the overwhelming emphasis on failed occupations, cruel tyrants, ethnic separatists and violent religious fanatics, is an Iraqi people who have routinely agitated against the state, advocated for legitimate and accountable government, and called for inter-communal harmony. When the Iraqi people are given agency in the complex process of consent, negotiation and resistance that underpin successful state-society relations, the nation can move beyond patterns of oppression and cruelty, of dangerous rhetoric and divisive politics, and towards a cohesive, peaceful and prosperous future - despite the many difficulties and the steep challenges that lie ahead.

The ongoing international military withdrawal from Afghanistan has set the stage for energising the activities of Afghanistan’s external stakeholders to re-evaluate their activities. The possible return of the Taliban in some form could... more

The ongoing international military withdrawal from Afghanistan has set the stage for energising the activities of Afghanistan’s external stakeholders to re-evaluate their activities. The possible return of the Taliban in some form could compel Afghanistan’s current external partners—Iran, India and Russia—to turn into limited spoilers. The absence of an international guarantor in Afghanistan from December 2014 is likely to encourage Pakistan—a greedy spoiler—to intensify its meddling as a means to reposition the Taliban—a total spoiler—at the helm of Afghan affairs. The combination of limited, greedy and total spoilers threatens to undermine security and state-building processes.

This paper is an enquiry into the extent to which institutionally designing Pakistani democracy, so as to optimally accommodate the challenges posited by the tribal regions through the implementation of participatory democracy, would... more

This paper is an enquiry into the extent to which institutionally designing Pakistani democracy, so as to optimally accommodate the challenges posited by the tribal regions through the implementation of participatory democracy, would advance the cause of democracy. Its speculative nature is validated and adequate given the failure of the only other ideological and axiomatic rival to liberal representative, the Great Experiment. Dearth of competition in real system terms posits the danger of democratic stagnation or decline in the face of undisputed dominance without incentive to innovate and improve. Schumpeter’s view of democracy as method rather than end demands the refining and revising of its methodology though ever-evolving and inclusionary institutional design to make it individually enabling and emancipatory. Democracy must submit to a far more rigorous test, at both the normative level of democratic theory and in the world of practice , in keeping up to the “ordinary citizens’” expectations ‘long subordinated ideals of equality, participation, accountability, responsiveness and self-realization’.
Why have I targeted the Tribal Areas?
The Pakistani tribal areas stretch from Chitral in the northeast to Balochistan’s Mt. Suleiman’s southwest end and the Afghanistan-Pakistan 2430 km Durand line frontier, which is porous owing to the tribe’s preserved ancient ethno-tribal links and lifestyle. The centralist nature of the Pakistani state is out of touch with the tribal dimension and needs to incorporate it accommodatingly.
It would be wise to pre-empt tribal secessionist movement through regional equitable growth instead of the current unsustainable growth model that I call urban explosion, which could happen through a participatory system.
The tribal region’s volatility owes its origin to the Cold War-era US-instigated Afghan expulsion of the USSR through using madarasahs to create radical fighters called mujahedeen. Participatory democracy would neutralize this.
There is a military anti-terror operation in Waziristan which has led to retaliatory suicide bombs in Pakistan’s cities. The US not only supplies Pakistan with military hardware but is interested in a strategic partnership in civil sectors, showing the US would not ipso facto be opposed to democratising the tribal areas for which the money exists in the form of the $7.5 billion Kerry Lugar aid bill to help the Pakistan balance ‘democratic imperatives with security requirements.’
The tribal areas have been notoriously troubled as they are thought of as non-governable, but troubles arise because the tribes feel disenfranchised.

With the Afghan Peace Process underway, of Af-Pak border almost finished and a massive repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan being carried out; a shift in foreign policy, interstate relations and a subsequently evolved security... more

With the Afghan Peace Process underway, of Af-Pak border almost finished and a massive repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan being carried out; a shift in foreign policy, interstate relations and a subsequently evolved security dynamics mat emerge between these two neighboring states. This policy paper reviews Pakistan's foreign policy adopted to secure strategic gains in post 9/11 South Asian order. The analysis aims to highlight any missed opportunities and lack of synergies with regards to Pakistan's Afghanistan related policies on trade, security, mobility and transit control at the border, that seem to have led to security deficit and long-term instability in Pakistan. Another key emerging issue discussed in forthcoming analysis is the importance of regional support required for success of Afghan Peace talks which in turn will dictate the security situation in Afghanistan and subsequently any challenges and opportunities for Pakistan.

The bitter history of India-Pakistan relations urged the leaders of the two countries to revive the Lahore process so that both these neighbours will move together building a prosperous and vibrant future for their people as the history... more

The bitter history of India-Pakistan relations urged the leaders of the two countries to revive the Lahore process so that both these neighbours will move together building a prosperous and vibrant future for their people as the history had threatened the people of India and Pakistan. Peace between them will stop the dangers of outbreak of armed/nuclear conflict. The time has come for Pakistan and India to make a critical choice between war and peace, love and hate, destruction and development, poverty and prosperity. This would only be possible through the process of negotiations based on the year to year discussions on different issues. Lahore summit was a success for both countries as India and Pakistan had showed their peaceful intentions for each other. Agra summit had created good will after the Kargil war which had frozen their relations. Peace talks of 2004 had showed that there was no sign of consensus in India on holding unconditional negotiations with Pakistan. There were different domestic constraints which acted as a hurdle for Pakistan foreign policy towards India. As foreign policy is the reflection of a country’s internal strengths and weaknesses, the control of domestic constraints of Pakistan would also create an impact on its relations with India.

This is a satirical op -ed pertaining to the mindset of the Pakistani establishment comprising the military and other national security institutions. This op - ed will discuss how the policy makers, with their gun barrel vision, are... more

This is a satirical op -ed pertaining to the mindset of the Pakistani establishment comprising the military and other national security institutions. This op - ed will discuss how the policy makers, with their gun barrel vision, are jeopardizing the human security of the people of Pakistan for their own institutional interests.

This paper identifies and appreciates China’s strategic interests in order to optimise China-India cooperation in Afghanistan in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In particular, the paper highlights the... more

This paper identifies and appreciates China’s strategic interests in order to optimise China-India cooperation in Afghanistan in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In particular, the paper highlights the resources that India will need to bring to bear in order to facilitate India-China cooperation on Afghanistan.

Pakistan has its longest border with India and its main security threats have mainly emerged from India. Pakistan is also facing Indian hostility and its military development is mainly to secure itself from Indian aggression. Pakistan... more

Pakistan has its longest border with India and its main security threats have mainly emerged from India. Pakistan is also facing Indian hostility and its military development is mainly to secure itself from Indian aggression. Pakistan feel threatened from India as India is a large, economically stable and militarily strong neighbor of Pakistan. History shows that relation between India and Pakistan since their independence remained tense and some times remained worst. Number of talks, discussions and dialogues have been arranged but their results did not solve issues between them. This article is emphasizing on the specific steps which are taken by Pakistan and India in order to improve relations and to minimize the threats. Over the past years, India and Pakistan have been taking steps towards improving their bilateral relations but lacked in their implementation. Both states will have to follow the policy of peaceful co-existence. As a matter of policy, Pakistan is now trying to promote normalization of ties with India. Both states need to develop economic and socio-cultural co-operation for healthy relations between them. Peace is a pre-requisite for the development and growth of the people of both sides. Expansion of population contacts, trade shows, economic conferences, parliamentarian dialogues, release of prisoners, most favored nation status and relaxation in visa policies are good engagements towards normalization and betterment of relations. These engagements would help both India and Pakistan to resolve their long standing issues and it will take time.

This essay argues that the ‘rationality’ of Pakistan and India must be maintained at the state level in order for nuclear weapons to provide ‘minimum deterrence’ effectively in the Indo-Pakistan nuclear dyad. The essay consists of two... more

This essay argues that the ‘rationality’ of Pakistan and India must be maintained at the state level in order for nuclear weapons to provide ‘minimum deterrence’ effectively in the Indo-Pakistan nuclear dyad. The essay consists of two sections. In section one I argue that nuclear weapons deterrence has stabilized an otherwise volatile region by ‘making the potential costs of large-scale war unacceptably high’. This argument is predicated on Waltzian neorealism. It applies Kenneth Waltz’s theoretical framework to the Indo-Pakistan regional security complex to demonstrate how nuclear weapons have contributed to achieving minimum deterrence. The essay identifies that, due to historical and ethno-religious reasons, the Indo-Pakistan security complex is unique and that two requirements are necessary in order for nuclear weapons to be effective as a deterrence strategy for these two countries:
I) The state is acting in a rational manner.
II) The coercive ability of the other state, because of nuclear weapons, is acknowledged.

This paper examines India as a rising power and questions whether or not India is an example of a rising power that is to be inevitably ‘threatening’. First, rising powers will be examined in light of the International Relations (IR)... more

This paper examines India as a rising power and questions whether or not India is an example of a rising power that is to be inevitably ‘threatening’. First, rising powers will be examined in light of the International Relations (IR) theoretical debate on the issue. Subsequently, India is analysed and discussed as a case study for a rising power that is threatening. The paper argues that the rise of India is inevitably threatening to Pakistan and China because India’s growing economy and territorial disputes are encouraging India to modernize the Indian Armed Forces (IAF).