Population Monitoring Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

... Tres carcasas fueron infestadas con un parásito patogénico, Angiocaulus gubernaculatus, que no se encuentra en las poblaciones de zorros en las islas de San Nicolás, San Clemente, Santa Catalina, Santa Cruz o Santa Rosa, y 2 carcasas... more

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- Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Population Size, Population Monitoring

Field tests were carried out to determine whether pheromone traps, baited with (Z,E)-9,12-tetradecadienyl acetate (Z9,E12-14:Ac) impregnated in rubber septa (Maavit, Israel), could provide a reliable tool for monitoring the raisin moth, Cadra figulilella (Gregson), in date palm plantations. No significant differences were detected between captures of males in traps baited with 1 or 10 mg pheromone/dispenser. However, traps baited with 1 mg pheromone captured significantly more males than those baited with 0.l mg pheromone/dispenser. No differences were found between captures of males in traps hung at a height of 8 m (near the bunches) or 2-3 m (on palm trunks). Two peaks of male capture were detected, one in May-June and the other during September-October (ripening period). Results indicate a positive relationship between captures in traps and infestation levels by larvae. Pheromone traps baited with 1 mg Z9,E12-14:Ac impregnated in rubber septa and hung on palm trunks (at a height of 2-3 m), were very useful for monitoring C. figulilella populations and for determining the accurate timing of insecticide applications.

- by D. Blumberg
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- Plant Biology, Date Palm, Sex Pheromone, Population Monitoring

Coastal prairies are the primary winter destination for two dozen species of migratory grassland birds and losses of this habitat have proven detrimental to their populations. As a result, some of Partners in Flight's (PIF) highest priority birds are grassland species. To examine grassland bird use of coastal prairies, Project Prairie Birds survey methodology was designed and field work was initiated in 1998. Avian surveys were conducted at 34 sites, each with multiple tran- sects for a minimum of two years by all-volunteer, three-person crews identifying all species flushed from vegetation. Seasonal vegetation surveys measured five variables using five one square-meter sample areas. We also measured vertical thickness using a density board. We selected nine sites (26.5%) with three or more years of survey data for analysis. Thirty-nine species were detected of which 36% have PIF combined species assessment scores of 10 or above. In addition, 24% of the individuals were Le Conte...

- by Cecilia Riley
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- Geography, Climate variability, Land management, Survey Methodology

Plagues of rodents in ®eld crops have been a problem of human societies for centuries. These problems diminished with the onset of eective herbicides and clean farming practices in the 1960s, but there has been a resurgence of rodent irruptions in crop®elds since the advent of conservation tillage systems. We examined the ecacy of in-furrow applications of 2% zinc phosphide (Zn 3 P 2 ) pellets (27.5 kg ha À1 [5 lb acre À1 ]) at planting for the control of rodent damage in no-till corn. Three independent ®eld studies were conducted in northeastern NE, southern IL, and southern IN. Vole populations in the most severely damaged ®elds (IL) ranged from 104 to 138 active colonies ha À1 . Zn 3 P 2 reduced yield loss in the three study areas by 7± 34%. Projected economic returns ranged from US$1044 to US$5360, based on representative 64-ha ®elds and a net pro®t of US$250 ha À1 . Bene®t:cost ratios ranged from 1.1 to 5.6:1 and were directly related to vole population levels. To prevent rodent damage in no-till corn®elds, we recommend an integrated pest management approach that incorporates the use of a combination of the following techniques: rodent population monitoring, economic thresholds, mowing, early pre-plant herbicides, broadcast whole-kernel corn, and in-furrow applications of Zn 3 P 2 pellets. 7

- by Scott Hygnstrom and +1
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- Integrated Pest Management, Biological Sciences, Profitability, Zinc

Estimating populations of both pest and natural enemy species is important in the planning and implementation of biological control. For example, synthetic pheromone lures are used to sample bark beetles, and sometimes their predators, in forest ecosystems. However, insect attraction to natural pheromone sources may differ from attraction to synthetic pheromone lures. Moreover, these differences may vary systematically between the target pest and some important natural enemies. Thus, the accuracy of both absolute and relative abundances of bark beetles and predators could vary with lure selection. We evaluated a series of synthetic lures to determine which lure gave the closest approximation to actual numbers of Ips pini (Say) and predators arriving at hosts infested with I. pini in Wisconsin. We deployed synthetic lures containing various ratios of the (ϩ) and (Ϫ) enantiomers of the principal I. pini pheromone component, ipsdienol, with or without an additional component, lanierone. I. pini showed strong preferences for speciÞc enantiomeric ratios of ipsdienol, and these responses were synergized by lanierone. Predators showed equally strong attraction to ipsdienol, but preferred different ratios of the stereoisomers. The addition of lanierone had no effect on predators. The most abundant predator, Thanasimus dubius (F.), showed greater preference for host material infested with I. pini than any synthetic lure. These disparities in responses, combined with strong disparities in seasonal ßight patterns, provided estimates of pest to predator ratios that varied by as little as 12% to as much as 12 times, from pest:predator ratios arriving at host material infested with I. pini. These results suggest that variation between herbivores and their natural enemies in their phenology, preferred pheromone blends, and infested host material should be considered when developing estimates of relative pest and predator densities for subsequent management options.

- by Kenneth Raffa
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- Zoology, Biological Control, Seasonality, Bark Beetle

Ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi are major microbial components of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forests, as well as some tropical forest ecosystems. Nearly two decades of studies have clarified many aspects of their population biology, based on several model species from diverse lineages of fungi where the EM symbiosis evolved, i.e. among Hymenomycetes and, to a lesser extent, among Ascomycetes. In this review, we show how tools for individual recognition have changed, shifting from the use of somatic incompatibility reactions to dominant and non-specific markers (such as random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)) and, more recently, to co-dominant and specific markers (such as microsatellites and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)).

- by Greg Douhan
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- Genetics, Microbiology, Mycology, Conservation Biology

Post-logging recovery Reduced-impact logging Sustained yield

- by Mark Schulze
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- Biological Sciences, Population structure, Environmental Sciences, Brazilian Amazon

The detection of misuse with naturally occuring steroids is a great challenge for doping control laboratories. Intake of natural anabolic steroids alters the steroid profile. Thus, screening for exogenous use of these steroids can be established by monitoring a range of endogenous steroids, which constitute the steroid profile, and evaluate their concentrations and ratios against reference ranges. Elevated values of the steroid profile constitute an atypical finding after which a confirmatory IRMS procedure is needed to unequivocally establish the exogenous origin of a natural steroid. However, the large inter-individual differences in urinary steroid concentrations and the recent availability of a whole range of natural steroids (e.g. dehydroepiandrosterone and androstenedione) which each exert a different effect on the monitored parameters in doping control complicate the interpretation of the current steroid profile. The screening of an extended steroid profile can provide additional parameters to support the atypical findings and can give specific information upon the steroids which have been administered. The natural concentrations of 29 endogenous steroids and 11 ratios in a predominantly Caucasian population of athletes were determined. The upper reference values at 97.5%, 99% and 99.9% levels were assessed for male (n = 2027) and female (n = 1004) populations. Monitoring minor metabolites and evaluation of concentration ratios with respect to their natural abundances could improve the interpretation of the steroid profile in doping analysis.

- by Pieter Van Renterghem
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- STEROIDS, Athletes, Clinical Sciences, Endogenous

The study of DNA damage at the chromosome level is an essential part of genetic toxicology because chromosomal mutation is an important event in carcinogenesis. The micronucleus assays have emerged as one of the preferred methods for assessing chromosome damage because they enable both chromosome loss and chromosome breakage to be measured reliably. Because micronuclei can only be expressed in cells that complete nuclear division a special method was developed that identifies such cells by their binucleate appearance when blocked from performing cytokinesis by cytochalasin-B (Cyt-B), a microfilament-assembly inhibitor. The cytokinesis-block micronucleus (CBMN) assay allows better precision because the data obtained are not confounded by altered cell division kinetics caused by cytotoxicity of agents tested or sub-optimal cell culture conditions. The method is now applied to various cell types for population monitoring of genetic damage, screening of chemicals for genotoxic potential...

- by Michael Fenech
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- Genetics, Kinetics, Cytotoxicity, DNA damage

The endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in rugged, high-altitude regions of Central Asia. However, information on the status of this felid is limited in many areas. We conducted a pilot study to optimize moecular markers for the analysis of snow leopard scat samples and to examine the feasibility of using noninvasive genetic methods for monitoring this felid. We designed snow leopardspecific primers for seven microsatellite loci that amplified shorter segments and avoided flanking sequences shared with repetitive elements. By redesigning primers we maximized genotyping success and minimized genotyping errors. In addition, we tested a Y chromosome-marker for sex identification and designed a panel of mitochondrial DNA primers for examining genetic diversity of snow leopards using scat samples. We collected scats believed to be from snow leopards in three separate geographic regions including north-western India, central China and southern Mongolia. We observed snow leopard scats in all three sites despite only brief 2-day surveys in each area. There was a high rate of species misidentification in the field with up to 54% of snow leopard scats misidentified as red fox. The high rate of field misidentification suggests sign surveys incorporating scat likely overestimate snow leopard abundance. The highest ratio of snow leopard scats was observed in Ladakh (India) and South Gobi (Mongolia), where four and five snow leopards were detected, respectively. Our findings describe a species-specific molecular panel for analysis of snow leopard scats, and highlight the efficacy of noninvasive genetic surveys for monitoring snow leopards. These methods enable large-scale noninvasive studies that will provide information critical for conservation of snow leopards.

- by Richard Jackson
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- Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Animal, Animal Conservation

Tailed frog (Ascaphus truei Stejneger) populations are at risk in much of the Pacific Northwest, and recolonization of sites may be slow postlogging. To examine the terrestrial movements of Ascaphus in clearcuts and old growth, we employed pitfall traps and drift-fence arrays installed along streams and 100 m into upland habitat. In the fall, we captured frogs farther from streams in old growth than in clearcuts, and more frogs were captured ≤25 m from streams in clearcuts. Stronger stream affinity in clearcuts was most evident with juvenile frogs, which exhibited more upstream movements than adults. Compared with inland sites where frogs remained close to streams (e.g., 12 m), frogs at our coastal sites were captured at greater distances from streams (≥100 m), having lower stream affinity than frogs at inland sites. Long-distance overland movements appear more likely where forested stands are present. Aggregations of Ascaphus at individual streams may not represent distinct populations and should not be managed as distinct units. Preserving groups of interconnected streams within watersheds instead of individual streams will improve the conservation status of Ascaphus. Population monitoring can ensure conservation measures promote long-term persistence.

- by Tanya R Wahbe
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- Earth Sciences, Conservation Status, Environmental Sciences, Pacific Northwest

Recovery of the Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi) that is federally listed as threatened will require population monitoring throughout the species' range. From 1998 through 2006, we used mark-recapture methods to monitor D. couperi at Fort Stewart, Georgia, USA. We captured 93 individual D. couperi while surveying for snakes at Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) burrows, and we recaptured 40 (43%) of these snakes. Our observed adult male:adult female sex ratio was 2.1:1. Nineteen males and 13 females exhibited overwintering site fidelity by returning to the same sandhills in successive years. For snakes recaptured in consecutive years, mean monthly growth rates were 3.0-35.7 mm for 26 males and 2.5-22.1 mm for 11 females, with smaller snakes of both sexes exhibiting the most rapid growth rates. Size data from Fort Stewart and other sites in southeastern Georgia demonstrate that D. couperi exhibits malebiased sexual size dimorphism. Males attain asymptotic size (SVL = 1766 mm) in 7.27 years; females attain asymptotic size (SVL = 1441 mm) in 5.22 years. We estimated ages of 7-10+ years for several snakes recaptured 4-7 years after their initial capture(s). Because current population trends are poorly known, we encourage population monitoring at other sites where D. couperi can reliably be found by surveys at Gopher Tortoise burrows.

- by Natalie Hyslop and +1
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- Zoology, Sexual size dimorphism, Sex ratio, Population Trend

Carnivores Vaccination A B S T R A C T Infectious diseases pose an important extinction risk for a number of endangered carnivore populations. Wild canids are particularly susceptible to generalist pathogens transmitted from domestic dogs -particularly rabies virus and canine distemper virus (CDV). Here we present a review of rabies as a threat to Ethiopian wolves, an endangered canid restricted to a few isolated Afro-alpine ranges in the Ethiopian highlands, and the impact of rabies on the largest population in the Bale Mountains. In the Bale Mountains, two confirmed rabies outbreaks among Ethiopian wolves in 1991-1992 and 2003-2004 were each responsible for over 70% mortality among focal packs and a third rabies outbreak was suspected in 1990. This review also presents an integrated disease management strategy for Ethiopian wolves combining long-term population monitoring, disease surveillance, conventional and emergency vaccination programs, and advanced modelling techniques.

Recent concern over global amphibian population declines has highlighted a need for more extensive, rigorous monitoring programs. Two sources of variation, spatial variation and variation in detection probability, make the design and implementation of effective monitoring programs difficult. We used Pollock's robust design in a 3-year capture-recapture study to estimate detection probability and temporary emigration for Plethodon salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (Tennessee/North Carolina), USA. We used 12 competing models to determine the importance of temporary emigration, and we explored temporal and behavioral effects on conditional capture probabilities. The top 4 models all included random temporary emigration, and Akaike model weights indicated that this parameter was the most important. Models that contained behavioral effects in capture probabilities were selected more often than models with equal capture probabilities for marked and previously unmarked individuals. The "best" model contained random emigration and behavioral effects and was selected 4 times as often as any other model. When we included Markovian emigration, the probability of emigrating from the surface usually was less than the probability of remaining an emigrant (73% of site-years). Markovian emigration estimates often were similar and always had overlapping confidence intervals, thus the Markovian model rarely was chosen over the random emigration models (only 9.6% of site-years). Our study is the first to formally estimate temporary emigration in terrestrial salamander populations, and our results verify that significant proportions of terrestrial salamander populations are subterranean. We determined that the probability of capturing salamanders on the surface may also vary temporally within a sampling season. Therefore, we caution against using unadjusted count indices to compare salamander populations over time or space unless detection probabilities are estimated. Temporary emigration models will improve abundance estimates when a large proportion of the population is unavailable for capture during a given sampling period.

- by Larissa Bailey
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- Biological Sciences, Seasonality, Environmental Sciences, Model Selection

Mass media campaigns are an important first step in raising awareness about physical activity and health in the general community. The US Surgeon General in 1996 released a report outlining the evidence base for the half-hour a day moderate intensity physical activity message for health. This message needs to be understood and accepted by the community and by stakeholders. Efforts to promote this message start with coordinated public education mass media communications campaigns, to inform and persuade the population to think about and trial physical activity behaviors. The evaluation of such interventions follows good practice for media campaigns in general, with careful attention to formative, process and impact levels of evaluation. Most important, and most often neglected, is the formative stage of developing effective communications messages that are relevant for the proposed target populations. Monitoring the implementation of the mass media campaign, known as process evaluation, is also important. The effectiveness of mass media campaigns (impact evaluation) is assessed through measures of proximal effects in populations; these measures include campaign and message awareness and understanding and attitudes towards the new physical activity message. New designs and statistical techniques add to the research armamentarium to ascertain the effects of these campaigns.

The Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola is a resident species in Azores, Madeira and Canaries (Macaronesian archipelagos) in contrast to its mainly migrant continental populations. The biology and ecology of these insular populations are still poorly known; however, woodcocks are hunted in Azores and Madeira. This work aims to continuing bridging the gap between scientific knowledge and game management of woodcocks in Azores. Working at Pico Island, the main objectives were: (a) to characterize the roding activity of these insular populations, (b) to select the best period of the breeding season to perform a roding survey and (c) to evaluate how sensitive is this method to variations in abundance because of hunting. From January to July 2002, the number of contacts with roding birds (males) was recorded, at dusk, at three observation points. Roding started in the beginning of February and lasted until late June/early July. The weekly variation in the number of contacts was similar in all points, strongly suggesting that the roding survey should be performed between the beginning of March and middle April. Two of the three observation points, located in an area where woodcock hunting is allowed in alternate years, were surveyed between March 1 and April 15, 2001–2005. The two points presented a similar annual variation pattern in the number of contacts, also suggesting stability in abundance. Sex ratio among birds bagged during three consecutive hunting seasons (October–November, 2002–2004) or among birds collected periodically during two winters (2000–2002) was equal to one, suggesting that annual fluctuations by the roding survey can be extended to the female fraction.

- by Luísa Machado
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- Zoology, Survey Methods, Seasonality, Sex ratio

Activities associated with timber harvesting have occurred within floodplain forests in the southern United States for nearly two hundred years. However, it is only in the last ten years that any information has become available about the effects of harvesting on the ecological functions of this valuable resource. Hydrology is the driving influence behind all ecological processes in floodplains, and

Helix pomatia L., the Roman snail, is a species faced with growing commercial interest in Moldova. Its life history characteristics (slow maturation and recruitment, high mortality among juveniles and low fecundity) along with its strong spatial aggregation, makes it especially vulnerable to exploitation. In this study, differences in density, shell size and age distribution were assessed in 7 unexploited and 10 exploited sites in the northern and central parts of Moldova. A significant impact of exploitation on snail population densities, shell size of adult snails and age distribution was revealed. Exploited sites had much lower densities than unexploited ones and in two places no live snails were found. This may suggest that exploitation is currently carried out at an unsustainable level, but additional information on the demography of populations and intensity of exploitation is required in order to make inferences regarding sustainability and long-term population management. There was a higher proportion of adult snails in exploited sites than in non-exploited, because of the collection strategies: not only adults, but also all other age groups are gathered. Bigger adult shell size in exploited sites may be related to lower population density, but further study is required to confirm this. Establishing of well-organized population monitoring systems and development of snail breeding enterprises are proposed in order to conserve the species in Moldova.

- by Nadejda Andreev
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- Life history, Ecology, Biodiversity Conservation, Population Density

Marine surveillance radar was used to inventory marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations as part of a long-term conservation program for Canadian Forest Products Ltd.'s Tree Farm Licence 37 on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. In 2003, we recorded 4571 radar detections from 32 morning surveys at 19 sites. Most sites were surveyed on consecutive days, and consecutive-day variability ranged from 4 to 61% depending on the site. Average consecutive-day variability was less at coastal sites (20%) compared to inland sites (29%), but was similar for data collected by a tilted radar scanner (26%) and untilted scanner (30%). Minimum flight heights determined for 86 targets based on angles of radar fences ranged from 100 to 730 m (mean = 270 m). The velocity of murrelet targets was measured on the radar screen to the nearest 0.1 mm using precision calipers. The mean estimated velocity of birds flying seaward (101 km/hr) was significantly higher than landward-moving birds (89 km/hr), which was in turn significantly higher than circling birds (82 km/hr). When tilted and untilted radar units were operated simultaneously at the same location, the tilted scanner detected 29-2925% (mean: 76%) more murrelets than the untilted scanner. We plan to continue long-term population trend monitoring on northern Vancouver Island using tilted scanner radar surveys.

- by Irene Manley
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- Data Collection, British Columbia, Vancouver Island, Population Trend

Lacerta schreiberi is an endemic lizard in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, with some isolated populations in the south. The aims of this work are to select priority areas for the conservation of the species, identify extinction risk areas, evaluate the current degree of protection and de®ne a strategy for the conservation of this species in Portugal. We used an evaluation model of areas in a GIS environment. Conservation priority areas represent 15% of the distribution area of the species in Portugal. Populations with high risk of extinction are located primarily along the littoral strip. About 50% of the conservation priority areas are already included in the Portuguese protected areas (PPA). The conservation strategy for the species needs ecient protection of habitats, increase of PPA and creation of Regional Reserves for the littoral populations. For the isolated populations we propose ®ve types of management actions: habitat restoration, supplementation of populations, reintroduction of individuals, captive breeding and population monitoring. # 0006-3207/99/$ -see front matter # 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. P I I : S 0 0 0 6 -3 2 0 7 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 0 0 2 -6 Biological Conservation 89 (1999) 311±319

- by Cristina Luis
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- Management, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Habitat Restoration

A series of tests were carried out to design pheromone-based monitoring of the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa. In a dose–response field test the number of male captures increased significantly with the dosage of pityolure to a plateau around 10mg. The activity of pheromone dispensers persisted for at least 11 weeks, enough to cover the entire flight period of

Marine turtles are a taxon of world-wide conservation concern. Effective long-term monitoring is hampered by the fact that populations are widely dispersed except during the breeding season. Thus most monitoring programmes focus on nesting beaches, necessitating resource intensive studies, often over months, that could conceivably, be less comprehensive and focus on more parsimonious sampling. We analyse 11 years of exhaustive monitoring data for two species of Mediterranean marine turtles (Chelonia mydas and Caretta caretta). We resample using a variety of plausible sub-sampling regimens to estimate the total annual nesting population. We project our dataset into the future applying a range of population change rates to explore how adopting a monitoring programme based on sub-sampling would, for example, affect our ability to detect population decline. We show that accurate annual population estimates can be achieved with as few as 14 days of survey effort providing monitoring spans the peak of nesting. Furthermore, the modelled impact of sampling-based monitoring suggests that the duration to detect population change is not increased greatly. Our findings have implications for all marine turtle monitoring and have applicability to other animal groups. It is often considered desirable to perform exhaustive monitoring, with aversion of basing policy recommendations on partial data. However, comprehensive long-term monitoring programmes, particularly in developing nations, although presenting a number of advantages, are often impossible. Accurate total annual censuses can be achieved through a variety of sub-sampling regimens without sacrificing the ability to detect changes in the population trends over time. In this example, a solid block of at least 3 weeks sampling that encompasses the peak of the nesting season is advised.

- by Annette Broderick
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- Sea Turtles, Marine Turtles, Biological Sciences, Seasonality

A remote monitoring system based on a piezoelectric quartz crystal (SPQC) sensor was developed for the determination of the bacteria population in raw milk. The system employs the Windows XP server operating system, and its programs for data acquisition, display and transmission were developed using the LabVIEW 7.1 programming language. The circuit design consists of a circuit with a piezoelectric quartz crystal (SPQC) and a pair of electrodes. This system can provide dynamic data monitoring on a web-page via the Internet. Immersion of the electrodes in a cell culture with bacteria inoculums resulted in a change of frequency caused by the impedance change due to microbial metabolism and the adherence of bacteria on the surface of the electrodes. The calibration curve of detection times against density of bacteria showed a linear correlation coefficient (R 2 = 0.9165) over the range of 70-10 6 CFU ml −1 . The sensor could acquire sufficient data rapidly (within 4 h) and thus enabled real-time monitoring of bacteria growth via the Internet. This system has potential application in the detection of bacteria concentration of milk at dairy farms.

- by Ching-fu Lee
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- Analytical Chemistry, Biomedical Engineering, Biosensors, Electrochemistry

We evaluated one of the most extensive efforts to date to re-introduce an endangered species: attempts to establish an actively managed meta-population of African wild dogs Lycaon pictus in South Africa. 2. Using an information-theoretic approach, known-fate modelling in program mark was employed to estimate the survival of re-introduced wild dogs and their offspring, and to model covariate effects relative to survival. Multiple a priori hypotheses on correlates of re-introduction success were tested (collated from extensive individual experiences) using different re-introduction attempts as natural quasi experiments. 3. Survival analyses revealed that the determinants of re-introduction success can be reduced to two factors relevant for management, suggesting that wild dog re-introductions should be attempted with socially integrated animals that are released into securely fenced areas, unless measures are implemented to mitigate human-related mortalities outside protected areas. 4. Synthesis and application. This study illustrates that monitoring and evaluation of conservation efforts, complimented with expert knowledge, forms the foundation of informed decision-making to underpin management recommendations with scientific evidence, particularly if the proposed actions are controversial.

- by Cailey Owen and +4
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- Decision Making, Conservation, Monitoring And Evaluation, Evaluation

Methods to evaluate population trends have recently received particular attention because of the decreasing patterns shown by several species since the nineteenth century. We have studied demographic traits of the Bonelli's eagle (Hieraaetus fasciatus) population of Andalusia (southern Spain) for 20 years . This species is endangered and is suffering a rapid decline in most of its distribution range. Although our study population has remained stable for the last 10 years, both age at first breeding and productivity have decreased during the last 5 years. We propose that age at first breeding could be used as a potential early warning signal to detect possible future changes in population trends of long-lived species with deferred maturation age. In particular, in this species spatial variation in demographic traits could help to detect whether unnatural events such as shooting are decreasing age at first breeding and productivity. If occupation of territories by non-adults is caused by human persecution, conservation efforts in the particular case of Bonelli's eagle have to be directed to protect those breeding territories where an increase in the percentage of pairs containing at least one non-adult individual would be detected. #

- by JAVIER BALBONTÍN
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- Nineteenth Century, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Early Warning

We describe a discrete-time, stochastic population model with density dependence, environmental-type process noise, and lognormal observation or sampling error. The model, a stochastic version of the Gompertz model, can be transformed into a linear Gaussian state-space model (Kalman filter) for convenient fitting to time series data. The model has a multivariate normal likelihood function and is simple enough for a variety of uses ranging from theoretical study of parameter estimation issues to routine data analyses in population monitoring. A special case of the model is the discrete-time, stochastic exponential growth model (density independence) with environmental-type process error and lognormal observation error.

- by david staples
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- Time Series, Ecology, Parameter estimation, Kalman Filter

The potentially important ecology of subterranean predators of soil ecosystem engineers is poorly understood. This is especially true of caecilian amphibians (Gymnophiona) for which there are virtually no quantitative data. Results of the first field trials of permanent marking in caecilians are presented. A preliminary assessment is made of the efficacy of mark-recapture studies for estimating population size of Gegeneophis ramaswamii Taylor in 100 m 2 of low intensity agriculture in Kerala, India. Over three sampling occasions spanning 58 days of the monsoon season, 114 individuals were captured, 104 marked and released, and 21 recaptured. Models estimate an open population of 60 individuals (95% confidence interval of 45.2 to 151.3), and a closed population of 236 (95% confidence interval of 174 to 351). A census interpretation of the raw capture data gives densities of about 0.31 to 0.48 m −2 . Results suggest large movement in and out of the sampled area during the study. Despite caveats associated with these data, progress is made in identifying potential limitations and improvements in the methods used. This study highlights the paucity of knowledge of caecilian ecology, and the need for long-term studies to elucidate further ecological information and to monitor populations.

- by G. John Measey
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- Zoology, Ecology, Soil ecology, Biological Sciences

The Plain Pigeon (Columba inornata) was listed as endangered in Puerto Rico in 1970. During 1986 and 1997, we collected point transect survey data to estimate density, population size, and rate of change. Density and population size estimates increased between 1986-1992 and 1997-2001. With a mean density of 0.25 :!: 0.06 SE individuals/ha and a mean population size in the area of the surveys of 3,746 :!: 892 SE individuals during 1997-2001, we believe that the status of the Plain Pigeon is not as precarious as it was during 1986-1992, when mean density was 0.02 :!: 0.003 SE individualslha and mean population size in the area of the surveys was 218 :!: 42 SE individuals. However, Plain Pigeons are not widely distributed and the loss and fragmentation of second growth forests combined with the effects of hurricanes and other factors may cause their extinction. Because Plain Pigeons have a spatially clumped distribution, we recommend sampling at least 1,195 points during peak nesting activity (March through June) throughout the island, with at least 526 points covering areas of abundance in eastcentral Puerto Rico, to monitor population changes and evaluate the effectiveness of management actions.

- by jose cruz
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- Zoology, Puerto Rico, Population Size, Survey data

Recent studies have examined mercury accumulation in crocodilians. However, though most researchers have focused on tissue concentrations, few have examined mercury levels in crocodilian eggs. In July 1995, we analyzed mercury in 31 nonviable Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) eggs collected from eight nests across three localities in northern Belize. All eggs were found to contain mercury. Based on an individual egg basis, mean concentration of mercury for all three localities was among the lowest reported for any crocodilian species. When localities were examined separately, mean concentrations for Laguna Seca and Gold Button Lagoon were comparable to those observed in other studies, and the mean for Sapote Lagoon was the lowest ever reported. Based on mean nest concentrations, mercury in eggs from Laguna Seca was approximately two-and tenfold higher than for Gold Button Lagoon and Sapote Lagoon, respectively. Variability in mercury concentrations among localities is likely the result of site-specific differences in mercury input, bioavailabilty, and bioaccumulation. Mercury concentrations were relatively uniform in eggs from the same nest and among nests from the same localities. The presence of mercury in Morelet's crocodile eggs suggests exposure in adult females, developing embryos, and neonates. However, crocodiles in these areas show no overt signs of mercury toxicity, and no indication of population decline is evident. A paucity of data on the effects of mercury on crocodilians precludes meaningful speculation as to the biological significance of tissue and egg concentrations. Controlled laboratory studies and long-term population monitoring are needed to address these questions.

- by Todd Anderson
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- Archives, Multidisciplinary, Mercury, Belize
- by Yadvendradev Jhala
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- Ecology, Population ecology, Carnivore Ecology, Wildlife Conservation

For salmonids that exhibit multiple life history forms within a single population, it may be necessary to evaluate the inconsistencies associated with population monitoring techniques. We compared mark– resight population estimates with those based on annual redd counts for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in eastern Oregon. Our data suggest that across years, the trends in population estimates based on expanded

- by Robert Al-Chokhachy
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- Life history, Fisheries Sciences, Count data, Oregon

A spoor count was done to determine whether caracal spoor densities in the vicinity of the border of the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park differed from those in the interior of the Park. The objective was to compare caracal densities close to the agricultural land with those deeper in a national park. Two long-distance transects, one along the Namibian border and one diverging from the Namibian border into the interior of the Park, were surveyed on a monthly basis. Spoor density, discrete track set distances and orientation of spoor to the road were recorded and analysed to establish use patterns for three distinct zones in the Park. The hypothesis tested was that increased spoor counts along the border should result from an attraction to the adjacent agricultural (cattle and sheep production) land. It is shown that caracals avoid the areas near the Namibian border during the hot season but increased their utilization in this region in the cold season. This implies that under conditions of low prey availability (cold season) caracals may move to the border and cross onto agricultural land to prey on small livestock, there.

- by Haemish Melville
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- Population Monitoring

Effective management of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) relies on accurate assessments of pest and predator populations. Semiochemicals provide a powerful tool for attracting bark beetles and associated predators, but the extent to which trap catches reßect actual population densities are poorly understood. We conducted Þeld experiments in California during 2 consecutive yr to determine how attraction of Ips pini (Say) and its major predators to synthetic pheromones vary from each other and from attraction to natural volatiles emitted from colonized hosts. Synthetic lures consisted of different ratios of the (ϩ) and (Ð) enantiomers of ipsdienol, the primary pheromone component of I. pini, with or without lanierone, an additional component that synergizes attraction in some populations. I. pini was consistently attracted to either 3(ϩ)/97(Ϫ) ipsdienol or infested host plant material. Lanierone had no effect on the attraction of I. pini. Coleopteran predators showed a range of responses, more of which coincided with I. pini. Temnochila chlorodia (Mannerheim) (Trogositidae) was attracted to infested host materials and all synthetic lures. Enoclerus lecontei (Wolcott) (Cleridae) preferentially responded to higher ratios of (ϩ)-ipsdienol, and its attraction was strongly enhanced by lanierone. Enoclerus sphegeus F. was most attracted to infested hosts and exhibited a preference for (Ϫ)-over (ϩ)-ipsdienol. Our results suggest that preferences of bark beetles and predators for bark beetle pheromones at the regional scale should be considered before deploying semiochemicals. These results are also consistent with a model of co-evolving responses to pheromones by predators and their prey. The roles of plant volatiles should be further investigated, both to improve monitoring programs and from an ecological perspective.

- by Diana Six
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- Zoology, Biological Control, Regional scale, Population Density

1 Host plant terpenes can influence attraction of conifer bark beetles to their aggregation pheromones: both synergistic and inhibitory compounds have been reported. However, we know little about how varying concentrations of individual monoterpenes affect responses. 2 We tested a gradient of ratios of a-pinene, the predominant monoterpene in host pines in the Great Lakes region of North America, to Ips pini's pheromone, racemic ipsdienol plus lanierone. 3 Ips pini demonstrated a parabolic response, in which low concentrations of a-pinene had no effect on attraction to its pheromone, intermediate concentrations were synergistic and high concentrations were inhibitory. These results suggest optimal release rates for population monitoring and suppression programmes. 4 Inhibition of bark beetle attraction to pheromones may be an important component of conifer defences. At terpene to pheromone ratios emulating emissions from trees actively responding to a first attack, arrival of flying beetles was low. This may constitute an additional defensive role of terpenes, which are also toxic to bark beetles at high concentrations. 5 Reduced attraction to a low ratio of a-pinene to pheromone, as occurs when colonization densities become high and the tree's resin is largely depleted, might reflect a mechanism for preventing excessive crowding. 6 Thanasimus dubius, the predominant predator of I. pini, was also attracted to ipsdienol plus lanierone, but its response differed from that of its prey. Attraction increased across all concentrations of a-pinene. This indicates that separate lures are needed to sample both predators and bark beetles effectively. It also provides an opportunity for maximizing pest removal while reducing adverse effects on beneficial species. This disparity further illustrates the complexity confronting natural enemies that track chemical signals to locate herbivores.

- by Nadir Erbilgin
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- Pest Management, Pheromones, Great Lakes Region, Biological Sciences

HARPER, W.L., SCHROEDER, B.K., MANLEY, I.A. & DEAL, J.A. 2004. Direct comparison of tilted and untilted radar for monitoring Marbled Murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus populations. Marine Ornithology 32: 35-41.

- by John Deal and +1
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- Marine, Population Monitoring

Wind-farms receive public and governmental support as an alternative energy source mitigating air pollution. However, they can have adverse effects on wildlife, particularly through collision with turbines. Research on wind-farm effects has focused on estimating mortality rates, behavioural changes or interspecific differences in vulnerability. Studies dealing with their effects on endangered or rare species populations are notably scarce. We tested the hypothesis that wind-farms increase extinction probability of long-lived species through increments in mortality rates. For this purpose, we evaluate potential consequences of wind-farms on the population dynamics of a globally endangered long-lived raptor in an area where the species maintains its greatest stronghold and wind-farms are rapidly increasing. Nearly onethird of all breeding territories of our model species are in wind-farm risk zones. Our intensive survey shows that wind-farms decrease survival rates of this species differently depending on individual breeding status. Consistent with population monitoring, population projections showed that all subpopulations and the meta-population are decreasing. However, population sizes and, therefore, time to extinction significantly decreased when wind-farm mortality was included in models. Our results represent a qualitative warning exercise showing how very low reductions in survival of territorial and non-territorial birds associated with wind-farms can strongly impact population viability of long-lived species. This highlights the need for examining long-term impacts of wind-farms rather than focusing on short-term mortality, as is often promoted by power companies and some wildlife agencies. Unlike other non-natural causes of mortality difficult to eradicate or control, wind-farm fatalities can be lowered by powering down or removing risky turbines and/or farms, and by placing them outside areas critical for endangered birds.

- by Martina Carrete
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- Population Dynamics, Air pollution, Risk assessment, Alternative Energy

The Bolivar Channel Ecosystem (BCE) is among the most productive zones in the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR). It is exposed to relatively cool, nutrient-rich waters of the Cromwell current, which are brought to the photic zone through topographic upwelling. The BCE is characterized by a heterogeneous rocky reef habitat covered by dense algae beds and inhabited by numerous invertebrate and fish species, which represent the food for higher predators including seals and sharks and exploited fish species. In addition, plankton and detritus based food chains channel large amounts of energy through the complex food web. Important emblematic species of the Galapagos archipelagos reside in this area such as the flightless cormorant, the Galapagos penguin and the marine iguanas. A trophic model of BCE was constructed for the habitats b30 m depth that fringe the west coast of Isabela and east coast of Fernandina islands covering 14% of the total BCE area (44 km 2 ). The model integrates data sets from sub tidal ecological monitoring and marine vertebrate population monitoring (2004 to 2008) programs of the Charles Darwin Foundation and consists of 30 compartments, which are trophically linked through a diet matrix. Results reveal that the BCE is a large system in terms of flows (38 695 t km − 2 yr − 1 ) comparable to Peruvian Bay Systems of the Humboldt upwelling system. A very large proportion of energy flows from the primary producers (phytoplankton and macroalgae) to the second level and to the detritus pool. Catches are high (54.3 t km − 2 yr − 1 ) and are mainly derived from the second and third trophic levels (mean TL of catch = 2.45) making the fisheries gross efficiency high (0.3%). The system's degree of development seems rather low as indicated by a P/R ratio of 4.19, a low ascendency (37.4%) and a very low Finn's cycling index (1.29%). This is explained by the system's exposure to irregular changes in oceanographic conditions as related to the EL Niño Southern Oscillation. Most important keystone groups of large relative impact over other system compartments are sharks and marine mammals. In addition, the important role of macro-algae, sea stars and urchins, phytoplankton and barracudas should be emphasized for their great contribution to the trophic flows and biomass of the system.

- by Diego Ruiz
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- Oceanography, Food web, ICT Integration model, Trophic Level

PELLET J., DUBEY S. and HOEHN S., 2002. The amphibians of the watershed of the Aubonne river (Switzerland): distribution and habitat analysis. Bull. Soc. vaud. Sc. nat. 88.1: 41-57. The amphibian fauna of the Aubonne watershed (canton de Vaud , Switzerland) between Ballens and Allaman has been observed during two field studies in spring 2000 and 2001. Twelve amphibian species

- by Sylvain Dubey
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- Logistic Regression, Habitat Selection, Species Distribution, Field Study

Background. COX-2 selective inhibitors are associated with myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to determine whether population health monitoring would have revealed the effect of COX-2 inhibitors on population-level patterns of MI. Methodology/Principal Findings. We conducted a retrospective study of inpatients at two Boston hospitals, from January 1997 to March 2006. There was a population-level rise in the rate of MI that reached 52.0 MI-related hospitalizations per 100,000 (a two standard deviation exceedence) in January of 2000, eight months after the introduction of rofecoxib and one year after celecoxib. The exceedence vanished within one month of the withdrawal of rofecoxib. Trends in inpatient stay due to MI were tightly coupled to the rise and fall of prescriptions of COX-2 inhibitors, with an 18.5% increase in inpatient stays for MI when both rofecoxib and celecoxib were on the market (P,0.001). For every million prescriptions of rofecoxib and celecoxib, there was a 0.5% increase in MI (95%CI 0.1 to 0.9) explaining 50.3% of the deviance in yearly variation of MI-related hospitalizations. There was a negative association between mean age at MI and volume of prescriptions for celecoxib and rofecoxib (Spearman correlation, 20.67, P,0.05). Conclusions/Significance. The strong relationship between prescribing and outcome time series supports a population-level impact of COX-2 inhibitors on MI incidence. Further, mean age at MI appears to have been lowered by use of these medications. Use of a population monitoring approach as an adjunct to pharmacovigilence methods might have helped confirm the suspected association, providing earlier support for the market withdrawal of rofecoxib.

- by Margarita Sordo
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- Time Series, Population Health, Multidisciplinary, Standard Deviation

Using large-scale data analysis to assess life history and behavioural traits: the case of the reintroduced White stork Ciconia ciconia population in the Netherlands.-The White stork Ciconia ciconia has been the object of several successful reintroduction programmes in the last decades. As a consequence, populations have been monitored over large spatial scales. Despite these intense efforts, very few reliable estimates of life history traits are available for this species. Such general knowledge however constitutes a prerequisite for investigating the consequences of conservation measures. Using the large-scale and long-term ringing and resighting data set of White storks in the Netherlands, we investigated the variation of survival and resighting rates with age, time and previous individual resighting history, and in a second step supplementary feeding, using capture-recapture models. Providing food did not seem to affect survival directly, but may have an indirect effect via the alteration of migratory behaviour. Large-scale population monitoring is important in obtaining precise and reliable estimates of life history traits and assessing the consequences of conservation measures on these traits, which will prove useful for managers to take adequate measures in future conservation strategies.

- by Arie van Noordwijk
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- Data Analysis, Life history, Spatial Scale, Supplementary feeding

Population monitoring of the Mediterranean fruit ßy, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), was studied in 1998 in a mixed-fruit orchard in northern Greece, using International Pheromone McPhail traps (IPMT) baited with the female targeted attractants ammonium acetate, putrescine, and trimethylamine, and Jackson traps baited with the male speciÞc parapheromone trimedlure. Special emphasis was placed on detecting the low initial adult population resulting from surviving overwintering larvae as early as possible in the spring and early summer. Traps were suspended on various host trees, using trap grid densities of either 15 or 1.5 traps per hectare. The Þrst adults detected were females captured on 24 June in IPMT traps suspended on apricot trees, which are among the earliest maturing hosts in the area. From the end of July, the most effective trap was the IPMT trap placed on peaches, which followed apricots in the fruit ripening sequence. IPMT traps captured predominately females (Ϸ80% of the total captures) and by far outperformed Jackson traps in early detection (the Þrst males in Jackson traps were captured in August) as well as in total captures until mid-October. After mid-October, however, more ßies were captured in Jackson traps. Comparing the performance of two trap grid densities on apple trees (the common host in the two grids), we found that in the high-density trap grid the Þrst adults were detected 1 wk earlier than in the low-density trap grid. Our Þndings for this locality suggest that trap type and plant species on which traps are suspended are of key importance in early detection and population monitoring of C. capitata.

- by Byron Katsoyannos
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- Zoology, Early Detection, Economic Entomology, Plant species

Denis & SchiV. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a key pest in the vineyards of Israel and Europe. Traps baited with the female sex pheromone are commonly used to monitor the pest population. However, the role of the vine cultivars on monitoring the moth population using pheromone-baited traps was not yet studied. The present study aimed to identify the eVect of grape cultivars on L. botrana adult distribution patterns in the Weld, in order to achieve a better understanding of the monitored data in respect to male and female's host preference. The 3-year study in commercial vineyards used four cultivars: Carignan, Emerald Riesling, French Colombard, and Cabernet Sauvignon. The moth population of each generation was estimated from male counts in pheromone traps; three generations were observed in all experimental orchards, each year. Female host choice was studied by monitoring freshly deposited eggs and newly hatched larvae on vines. The study showed a signiWcant eVect of cultivar on numbers of trapped males in most years, and a cultivar eVect on female host choice. For both males and females and for all phenological stages of the grapes, Carignan and French Colombard attracted the most and Cabernet Sauvignon the fewest specimens. The results show that cultivar blend within the vineyard can aVect the distribution pattern of the pest. Knowledge of the expected choice of the female moth, and of the timing of its decision could lead to an improved monitoring system, with the preferred cultivar as an indicator.

- by Ally Harari
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- Zoology, Sex Pheromone, Population Monitoring, Monitoring System

We developed a deterministic population model to simulate dynamics of the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd in the Mille Lacs Wildlife Management Area, Minnesota. The model was driven by three primary parameters representing reproduction, harvest, and natural mortality. Reproductive rates were age-specific, while harvest and natural mortality rates were age-and sex-specific. Natural mortality rates were estimated using survival data collected from 81 radio-collared female deer during 1996-2000. Minimal variation was observed in annual summer survival rates (range = 96-100%), but annual winter survival rates varied (range = 76-96%) and were related to winter severity indices (P = 0.02). Deer herd dynamics were simulated from 1990 to 2001 and population estimates derived from aerial surveys conducted in 1997 and 2001 were used to validate simulated model estimates. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify important model parameters and quantify error in model estimates caused by inaccurate input data used during deterministic simulations. Model estimates were most sensitive to biased summer survival, winter survival, and productivity rates of adult females. High variance in model estimates was caused by annual variability in adult female winter survival, adult female productivity, and fawn female summer survival. We recommend collecting data for sensitive model parameters to improve model accuracy. A stochastic model was used to simulate herd sizes that could have occurred in the real population and these population estimates were compared to simulated estimates derived from the deterministic model to assess model performance. This analysis indicated that population estimates produced by the deterministic model would be reasonably accurate for up to 4 years. However, accuracy in modeled estimates declined overtime which suggested that accounting models should not be used exclusively as long-term population monitoring devices for deer management. Additionally, we developed an individual-based population model to examine the effect demographic stochasticity had on error in model estimates for small deer herds. The relative variation in model output decreased in a curvilinear fashion as the number of adult females in the initial population increased. Our findings indicate that while deterministic accounting models are useful to guide research activities and assess potential consequences of proposed management strategies, they are not designed to monitor deer abundance over an extended period of time. Published by Elsevier B.V.

- by Marrett Grund and +1
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- Multidisciplinary, Ecological Modelling, Wildlife Management, Population Model

Bats are ecologically important mammals in tropical ecosystems; however, their populations face numerous environmental threats related to climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, hunting, and emerging diseases. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop and implement large-scale networks to monitor trends in bat populations over extended time periods. Using data from a range of Neotropical and Paleotropical bat assemblages, we assessed the ability for long-term monitoring programs to reliably detect temporal trends in species abundance. We explored the magnitude of within-site temporal variation in abundance and evaluated the statistical power of a suite of different sampling designs for several different bat species and ensembles. Despite pronounced temporal variation in abundance of most tropical bat species, power simulations suggest that long-term monitoring programs (P20 years) can detect population trends of 5% per year or more with adequate statistical power (P0.9). However, shorter monitoring programs (610 years) have insufficient power for trend detection. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that a monitoring program extending over 20 years with four surveys conducted biennially on five plots per monitoring site would have the potential for detecting a 5% annual change in abundance for a suite of bat species from different ensembles. The likelihood of reaching adequate statistical power was sensitive to initial species abundance and the magnitude of count variation, stressing that only the most abundant species in an assemblage and those with generally low variation in abundance should be considered for detailed population monitoring.

- by Luis F. Aguirre and +1
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- Climate Change, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Biological Conservation

Abstract: Marine surveillance radar was used to inventory marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations as part of a long-term conservation program for Canadian Forest Products Ltd.’s Tree Farm Licence 37 on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. In 2003, we recorded 4571 radar detections from 32 morning surveys at 19 sites. Most sites were surveyed on consecutive days, and consecutive-day variability ranged from 4 to 61 % depending on the site. Average consecutive-day variability was less at coastal sites (20%) compared to inland sites (29%), but was similar for data collected by a tilted radar scanner (26%) and untilted scanner (30%). Minimum flight heights determined for 86 targets based on angles of radar fences ranged from 100 to 730 m (mean = 270 m). The velocity of murrelet targets was measured on the radar screen to the nearest 0.1 mm using precision calipers. The mean estimated velocity of birds flying seaward (101 km/hr) was significantly higher than landward-moving...

- by Irene Manley
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- Key words, Data Collection, British Columbia, Vancouver Island
- by Andrew G Gosler
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- Zoology, Population Genetics, Statistical Analysis, Life history

We determine the power of population monitoring in source or sink habitat to detect declining reproductive success in source habitat using a stochastic population model. The relative power to detect a trend in the source by monitoring either the source or the sink varies with life history parameters, environmental stochasticity, and observation uncertainty. The power to detect a decline monitoring either source or sink habitat is maximized when the reproductive surplus in the source is low. The power to detect a decline by monitoring the sink increases with increasing reproductive deficit in the sink. If environmental stochasticity in the source increases, the power in the sink goes down due to a lower signal-to-noise ratio. However, the power in the sink increases if environmental stochasticity is increased further, because increasing stochasticity reduces the geometric mean growth rate in the source. Intriguingly, it is often most efficient to monitor the sink even though the actual reproductive decline occurs in the source. If reproductive success is declining in both habitats, censusing the sink will always have higher power. However, the probability of Type 1 error is always higher in the sink. Our results clearly have implications for optimal population monitoring in source-sink landscapes.

- by Niclas Jonzén
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- Conservation, Time Series, Life history, Population Dynamics
- by Theunis Piersma
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- Zoology, Conservation Biology, Ecology, Population ecology

Purpose. To summarize the development and application of a generic measure of health-related quality of life known as the Quality of Well-Being Scale (QWB). Background. The QWB is part of a general health policy model. The measure includes functional components for mobility, physical activity, and social activity. In addition, it includes a comprehensive list of symptoms and problems. QWB scoring

- by William Sieber
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- Mental Health, Clinical Trial, Quality of life, Physical Activity