Currency Crises Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
In this paper, a new method is introduced to predict currency crises. The method models a continuous crisis index, based on depreciations and reserve losses. The fact that during currency crises, the behaviour of market participants... more
In this paper, a new method is introduced to predict currency crises. The method models a continuous crisis index, based on depreciations and reserve losses. The fact that during currency crises, the behaviour of market participants differs from normal circumstances is modelled by means of model with two regimes, one for troubled, and one for normal times. Both the probability
El rol de la política económica durante episodios de crisis del sector externo es un tema de relevancia central en los países en desarrollo. A partir de la visión de “crowding-out” fiscal sobre la inversión privada, el abordaje... more
El rol de la política económica durante episodios de crisis del sector externo es un tema de relevancia central en los países en desarrollo. A partir de la visión de “crowding-out” fiscal sobre la inversión privada, el abordaje convencional considera efectivo una política fiscal contractiva para una rápida reversión hacia el crecimiento. La visión extrema de ello son las teorías de “austeridad fiscal expansiva”, en donde una política de reducción del gasto implicaría una mayor actividad económica. Sin embargo, al considerar un conjunto de evidencia empíricapara países emergentes sobre crisis cambiaria, gasto público y déficit fiscal, se observanresultados opuestos. En base a información trimestral paradiecinueve economías entre 1993-2013, y distinguiendo entre aquellas crisis cambiarias que fueron o no recesivas, se aprecia una fuerte asociación entre aquellas crisis cambiarias no recesivas y la presencia de una política fiscal expansiva. Aun considerando como objetivo la consolidación fiscal, se observa que cuanto mayores el impacto sobre el PBI, más difícil resulta reducir el déficit fiscal tanto en magnitud como supersistencia en el tiempo.Este trabajo provee evidencia favorable a la idea de efectividad del multiplicador fiscal y crecimiento desde la demanda, incluso en situaciones de elevada presión cambiaria.
- by Nicolas Zeolla and +1
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- Recession, Latin America, Post-Keynesian Economics, Currency Crises
This volume presents six monographs of currency crisis episodes in two Latin American countries in 1994-1995 (Mexico and Argentine) and four Asian countries in 1997-1998 (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Korea). The Asian part of this... more
This volume presents six monographs of currency crisis episodes in two Latin American countries in 1994-1995 (Mexico and Argentine) and four Asian countries in 1997-1998 (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Korea). The Asian part of this volume is supplemented with a short comparative note, commenting these four monographs. All the studies were prepared under the research project no. OI44/H02/99/17 on "Analysis
- by Malgorzata Jakubiak and +1
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- Eastern Europe, South Korea, Financial Crisis, Banking Crisis
... 160 Recent advances in neo-Schumpeterian economics The second problem is the size of the futures position. ... 2, are gross market values of the OTC derivatives, ie forwards and forex (foreign exchange) swaps, cur-rency swaps and OTC... more
... 160 Recent advances in neo-Schumpeterian economics The second problem is the size of the futures position. ... 2, are gross market values of the OTC derivatives, ie forwards and forex (foreign exchange) swaps, cur-rency swaps and OTC options, and notional principal of ...
Currency crises tend to affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that regional patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. Using... more
Currency crises tend to affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that regional patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency crises affect countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of ...
In what follows, we revisit this history with an eye toward establishing what is new and different about the recent wave of crises. We consider banking crises, currency crises and twin crises (where banking and currency crises coincide).... more
In what follows, we revisit this history with an eye toward establishing what is new and different about the recent wave of crises. We consider banking crises, currency crises and twin crises (where banking and currency crises coincide). The core comparison is with the earlier age of globalisation from 1880 to 1914. Interpretations of recent decades emphasise the role of
This article examines Japan’s commitments to the developmental state concept after the Asian economic and currency crises. Some aspects of the concept have been regarded as the causes of the crises, and Japan was seen as failing to defend... more
This article examines Japan’s commitments to the developmental state concept after the Asian economic and currency crises. Some aspects of the concept have been regarded as the causes of the crises, and Japan was seen as failing to defend effectively its own developmental model. However, the Japanese government has strengthened policies and institutions for industrial cooperation toward East Asia after the crises, stressing the elements of the developmental state such as close business–government collaboration and effective uses of public corporations as measures to rehabilitate the growth model in East Asia. In its efforts to assist industrial restructuring in Thailand, the Japanese government made its Thai counterpart acknowledge the necessity of state intervention in fostering small and medium-sized enterprises, and sought to transfer experiences and know-how of institution building such as the advisory council system, the policy finance system and industrial development coordinated by trade associations. Thus, the Japanese government maintained and partially intensified the developmental state approach in its cooperation with industrial restructuring programmes in major East Asian countries after the Asian crises.
This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to distinguish their causes divided in three periods (1990-1995), (1995-2002) and (2002-2009). My goal is to compare these incidents to find... more
This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to distinguish their causes divided in three periods (1990-1995), (1995-2002) and (2002-2009). My goal is to compare these incidents to find similarities and differences among them for the very first time for the country’s analysis. The forward spread is selected as a dependent variable along with a set of independent macroeconomic and social variables (balance of payments, crisis elsewhere, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, gold price, lending rate, money, external debt and consumer price level) examining these variables for a twenty year period (January 1990- December 2009) the largest set availiable in refered literature I examined their relation to the forward spread, following the feasible least squares methodology. This innovative approach is used for the first time in the field and it has the major advantages of least squares methodology along with panel data a...
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables in the... more
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables in the neighbourhood of crises by means of graphic analysis, non-parametric and econometric techniques. We found that expansions in public expenditures as well as increases in the debt to GDP ratio and falls in the rate of growth of bank deposits contribute to spur the probability of crisis. Unfavourable external conditions, jointly with domestic imbalances, help to explain very deep crises or crashes.