Recession Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

I study the implications of economic shocks for objective and subjective CEO performance evaluation. A shock perturbs pay-setting parties' information about the firm and the CEO. I argue that pay-setting parties then lack information they... more

I study the implications of economic shocks for objective and subjective CEO performance evaluation. A shock perturbs pay-setting parties' information about the firm and the CEO. I argue that pay-setting parties then lack information they need for evaluating the CEO objectively, and de-emphasize objective CEO performance evaluation in favor of subjective CEO performance evaluation; over time, pay-setting parties become better informed about the firm as well as the CEO, and increasingly use again objective CEO performance evaluation. My evidence, which uses data on objective and subjective CEO performance evaluation in US executive pay between 1992 and 2013, is consistent with my argument.

En septiembre de 2007 se hizo evidente una grave crisis financiera en los países desarrollados debido a graves errores de política económica. Aun contra su propia ideología, los gobiernos no han escatimado medidas para reducir sus... more

En septiembre de 2007 se hizo evidente una grave crisis financiera en los países desarrollados debido a graves errores de política económica. Aun contra su propia ideología, los gobiernos no han escatimado medidas para reducir sus efectos, no han logrado contenerla y avanza hacia una recesión mundial de profundidad y duración inciertas. Ya ha producido cambios en los paradigmas teóricos y prácticos que han dominado la academia y la política en las últimas tres décadas. También tendrá fuertes efectos en los frágiles equilibrios económicos, sociales y políticos de los países en desarrollo, en particular de América Latina por su dependencia de la producción de materias primas, remesas y flujos de capitales externos que se están reduciendo rápidamente. La crisis llevará a una nueva relación Estado-mercado y a nuevos paradigmas con fuerte influencia keynesiana, y de ella nacerá una nueva oportunidad para América Latina si logra consolidar una nueva manera de gestionar su economía.

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and non-EMU... more

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and non-EMU members (Norway, Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q3. For each country, we extract the long

Purpose This study examined the effects of economic downturns at time of graduation on short- and long-term mental health of graduates. Methods Using a large longitudinal dataset whose respondents graduated from their highest level of... more

Purpose
This study examined the effects of economic downturns at time of graduation on short- and long-term mental health of graduates.
Methods
Using a large longitudinal dataset whose respondents graduated from their highest level of education between 2001 and 2018 in Australia, the study investigated the effects of initial labour market conditions on psychological distress measures, quality-of-life mental health scales, and diagnoses of depression or anxiety since graduation.
Results
Evidence suggests the presence of a scarring effect of graduating during a recession on mental health of young adults, particularly significant and persistent for men. Higher unemployment rates at graduation were associated with increased risks of high psychological distress and diagnoses of depression or anxiety, and lower levels of social functioning and mental well-being among men lasting over a decade. The psychological effect was largely driven by young adults with vocational or secondary qualifications or receiving no government allowance at graduation.
Conclusions
Policies should consider the psychological effect of graduating during recessions and focus particularly on vulnerable groups who are susceptible to adverse labour market conditions, such as graduates who are in cyclically sensitive occupations, and have less or no work benefits and social protection.

This study focuses on the embryonic stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, where most people affected opted to abide by the Chinese government’s national self-quarantine campaign. This resulted in major disruptions to one of the most... more

This study focuses on the embryonic stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, where most people affected opted to abide by the Chinese government’s national self-quarantine campaign. This resulted in major disruptions to one of the most common market processes in retail: food retailing. The research adopts the theory of planned behaviour to provide early empirical insights into changes in consumer behaviour related to food purchases during the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Data from the online survey carried out suggest that the outbreak triggered considerable levels of switching behaviours among customers, with farmers’ markets losing most of their customers, whilst local small independent retailers experienced the highest levels of resilience in terms of customer retention. This study suggests avenues for further scholarly research and policy making related to the impact this behaviour may be having around the world on society’s more vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly.

Na gospodarstvo podravske regije, ki je bilo že v preteklosti zaznamovano z vzponi in padci, je leta 2009 vplivala tudi svetovna gospodarska kriza. Avtorica predstavlja vpliv gospodarske krize na to regijo in njene občine ter kako so se... more

The global financial crisis and the ensuing sharp downturns in economic activity around the world have rekindled interest in the question of the circumstances under which a “recession” can be appropriately labelled a “depression.” The... more

The global financial crisis and the ensuing sharp downturns in economic activity around the world have rekindled interest in the question of the circumstances under which a “recession” can be appropriately labelled a “depression.” The differences are more profound than simply depth and duration, but reflect differences in causation and accompanying consequences. Moreover macroeconomic policies, which have been effective in responding to “recessions,” may be less effective in “depressions.”

This theory of economic development conceptualized the development process as a series of stages through which an economy passes as it moves towards maturity. Porter’s Global Competitive Advantage theory seeks feasibility in its possible... more

This theory of economic development conceptualized the development process as a series of stages through which an economy passes as it moves towards maturity. Porter’s Global Competitive Advantage theory seeks feasibility in its possible application to modern world economies through the advent of the reality of globalization—as may have possibly defined by the increasing interdependence and interconnectedness of economic systems and their respective regions. As a possible corollary to Rostow’s Modernization Theory of Economic Development, Porter also supports the inherent need for an economy to modernize—a process supported by a national commitment to development policies which promote domestic investment and industrialization.

Th reasons, effects and remedies of the recession 2008-09

The weakening of the world economy, as well as the economies of high-income OECD countries, in comparison with the 2000s and even the 2010s, fits perfectly into the concept of a more crisis-depressive phase of the development in the... more

The weakening of the world economy, as well as the economies of high-income OECD countries, in comparison with the 2000s and even the 2010s, fits perfectly into the concept of a more crisis-depressive phase of the development in the global economy in the downswing phases of Kondratieff waves. Accordingly, at the moment we are experiencing the downswing phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave . We proceed from the fact that the governments and financial authorities of high-income OECD countries and China are not ready to let the recession spread in a natural way, but intend to support thousands of economically doomed enterprises and unprofitable projects, greatly increasing injection of money into the economy and supporting low, zero and even negative interest rates (which allows simultaneously and with less effort to support the rapid growth of the national debt). Hence it can be expected that the new medium-term (7–11 years) Juglar cycle will last longer than usual.

In this paper,we investigate the forecasting ability of the yield curve in terms of the U.S. real GDP cycle. More specifically, within a Machine Learning framework, we use data from a variety of short (treasury bills) and long term... more

In this paper,we investigate the forecasting ability of the yield curve in terms of the U.S. real GDP cycle. More specifically, within a Machine Learning framework, we use data from a variety of short (treasury bills) and long term interest rates (bonds) for the period from 1976:Q3 to 2011:Q4 in conjunction with the real GDP for the same period, to create a model that can successfully forecast output fluctuations (inflation and output gaps) around its long-run trend. We focus our attention in correctly forecasting the instances of output gaps referred for the purposes of our analysis here as recessions. In this effort, we applied a Support Vector Machines technique for classification.
The results show that we can achieve an overall forecasting accuracy of 66.7 and 100% accuracy in forecasting recessions. These results are compared to the alternative standard logit and probit model, to provide further evidence about the
significance of our original model.

The paper employs statistical analysis on the ways that creative and cultural industries in Europe have weathered the economic crisis post-2008. In more details, the paper uses Eurostat data for the turnover (2008-2012), employment... more

The paper employs statistical analysis on the ways that creative and cultural industries in Europe have weathered the economic crisis post-2008. In more details, the paper uses Eurostat data for the turnover (2008-2012), employment (2008-2014) and the number of enterprises (2008-2011) of creative and cultural industries in a set of European countries. The analysis shows that the economic crisis has proven to be a period of selective growth for some knowledge-intensive creative industries, such as computer programming and design activities, where the majority of active firms are either self-employed or very small. Moreover, the cross-country analysis revealed that the more developed western European economies are still dominating creative sectors, such as music-film-video, TV and radio, computer programming and design activities, whereas southern European countries, where the recession appears to have been more prolonged, have been more severely affected. On the contrary, the recession proved to be a period of growth for a number of eastern European countries, especially in sectors, such as computer programming, design and arts.

'The Changing State of Gentrification' (2001) by Jason Hackworth and the late Neil Smith is one of the most influential papers ever published in TESG. By introducing three waves, or periods, of practices and patterns of gentrification, it... more

'The Changing State of Gentrification' (2001) by Jason Hackworth and the late Neil Smith is one of the most influential papers ever published in TESG. By introducing three waves, or periods, of practices and patterns of gentrification, it changed the way we think about gentrification. This Introduction to the Forum discusses the three waves introduced by Hackworth and Smith as well as fourth wave introduced by Lees et al. Finally, I will argue that during the global financial crisis we have entered fifth-wave gentrification. Fifth-wave gentrification is the urban materialization of financialized or finance-led capitalism. The state continues to play a leading role during the fifth wave, but is now supplemented—rather than displaced—by finance. It is characterized by the emergence of corporate landlords, highly leveraged housing, platform capitalism (e.g. Airbnb), transnational wealth elites using cities as a 'safe deposit box', and a further 'naturalization' of state-sponsored gentrification.

INTRODUCTION: Under the shadow of recession and on the basis of terror management theory (TMT) it was hypothesized that self-esteem would reduce the worldview defense produced by mortality salience (MS). The focus of TMT has been to... more

INTRODUCTION: Under the shadow of recession and on the basis of terror management theory (TMT) it was hypothesized that self-esteem would reduce the worldview defense produced by mortality salience (MS). The focus of TMT has been to unveil how death-related thought operates at an unconscious level to exert a powerful effect on symbolic modes of social behavior. METHOD: Research needs to be uniquely built to advance a heuristic model of the cognitive architecture of how people defensively respond to the awareness of death. This model might have implications for understanding a number of domains more generally while subsequent insights may give us an important understanding of a multifaceted range of human social behavior. RESULTS: The results based on literature review confirmed the hypothesis by showing that individuals with high self-esteem did not respond to MS with increased worldview defense, whereas individuals with moderate self-esteem did. High self-esteem therefore facilitates the suppression of death constructs following MS. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the cognitive architecture of death related thought might help to provide insight into current social phenomena that re-activate unfinished grief and unresolved issues from the past by allowing us to trace the cognitive activation that follows reminders of death in different contexts and for different individuals. In doing so we can facilitate a better understanding of how existential needs affect core social behaviors that characterize the human experience.

Στις αρχές της δεκαετίας του ‘90 μια ομάδα Πανεπιστημίων από διάφορες χώρες της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης ξεκίνησε να ερευνήσει την τότε επικρατούσα κατάσταση στις πρακτικές Διοίκησης Ανθρώπινου Δυναμικού στις μεσαίες και μεγαλύτερες... more

Στις αρχές της δεκαετίας του ‘90 μια ομάδα Πανεπιστημίων από διάφορες χώρες της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης ξεκίνησε να ερευνήσει την τότε επικρατούσα κατάσταση στις πρακτικές Διοίκησης Ανθρώπινου Δυναμικού στις μεσαίες και μεγαλύτερες επιχειρήσεις του ιδιωτικού κυρίως Τομέα. Συντονιστής ανέλαβε το Πανεπιστήμιο του Cranfield με τον Καθηγητή Chris Brewster, ενώ για λογαριασμό της Ελλάδας το έργο ανέλαβε το Οικονομικό Πανεπιστήμιο Αθηνών.
Από τότε πέρασαν 25 χρόνια, πολλές νέες χώρες μπήκαν στην έρευνα η οποία επαναλαμβάνεται σε τακτά χρονικά διαστήματα. Ο όγκος των στοιχείων και οι συγκρίσεις ανάμεσα στις χώρες έχει οδηγήσει σε πολλές δημοσιευμένες εργασίες ενώ έχουν καταγραφεί σταδιακά οι εξελίξεις.
Σκοπός της μελέτης είναι να παρουσιάσει στοιχεία από τις πρακτικές Διοίκησης Ανθρώπινου Δυναμικού, τόσο στην Ελλάδα όσο και στην Ευρώπη, χρησιμοποιώντας τα σημαντικότερα ευρήματα από τις διαδοχικές έρευνες που έγιναν στα χρόνια που πέρασαν. Τα αποτελέσματα δίνουν μια συνοπτική εικόνα του επιπέδου και των εξελίξεων της Διοίκησης Ανθρώπινου Δυναμικού, προδιαγράφοντας σε ένα βαθμό και το άμεσο μέλλον της. Ένα μέλλον που έντονη επιθυμία μας είναι να παίξει σημαντικό ρόλο τόσο στην αποτελεσματικότητα των επιχειρήσεων, όσο και στην ευημερία των εργαζομένων και του κοινωνικού συνόλου γενικότερα.

The ability of the construction industry to respond to changes in the environment has always been a subject of debate. There are some organizations that have been quite successful in responding to changes by adjusting their outlook and... more

The ability of the construction industry to respond to changes in the environment has always been a subject of debate. There are some organizations that have been quite successful in responding to changes by adjusting their outlook and fundamentals, but the construction industry in general responds slowly to environmental changes. The objective of this paper is to determine the survival strategy variables (SSVs) used by Malaysian construction companies in the past two economic downturns to remain competitive and to ensure survival in the future. Respondents to this research are construction companies classified in the large category by the Construction Industry Development Board of Malaysia (CIDB). The findings of this study are based on 152 questionnaires, out of 600 sent out by the researchers, redeemed from construction companies. Response rate thus stands at 25.3%. This study used the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the frequency analysis as methodologies. The findings show that the construction companies responded differently in the two periods of recessions, and among the top key SSVs found were management style, market penetration, quality improvement, market development, and product development.

The latest economic crisis has forced many organizations to look very closely at their financing, operations, marketing and strategy. Recessions are certainly a sobering period for many people, requiring changes in habitual spending and... more

The latest economic crisis has forced many organizations to look very closely at their financing, operations, marketing and strategy. Recessions are certainly a sobering period for many people, requiring changes in habitual spending and consumption patterns. Main problem in a period of recession will depend on anticipation of this new environment and understand consumer attitudes and needs will change. The purpose of this study is to make a literature review about ‘marketing strategies during recession’ and provide ‘proposed guidelines’ for firms and practitioners working on this field.

Does uncertainty help predict recessions? To control for available information, I use a dynamic factor model to derive common factors from a large macroeconomic panel. In addition to studying existing uncertainty measures, I introduce a... more

Does uncertainty help predict recessions? To control for available information, I use a dynamic factor model to derive common factors from a large macroeconomic panel. In addition to studying existing uncertainty measures, I introduce a novel uncertainty measure by using natural language processing to analyse news. To evaluate forecast performance, I modify tests of equal forecast accuracy for nested models. I demonstrate that many uncertainty measures help predict recessions, especially at longer forecast horizons. Furthermore, I show that my novel measure delivers a considerable increase in predicted probabilities of the 2001 recession onset over the benchmark model. 7500 words

Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak hebat pada sektor ekonomi di berbagai negara. Resesi ekonomi telah dilaporkan terjadi di sejumlah negara. Indonesia diprediksi akan memasuki masa resesi di akhir tahun 2020. Kekhawatiran tersebut harus segera... more

In this paper we investigate the relationship between distrust in the European Union on the one hand and Risk of – poverty and unemployment on the other, since the debt crisis in Europe. Using data from the Eurobarometer survey we try to... more

In this paper we investigate the relationship between distrust in the European Union on the one hand and Risk of – poverty and unemployment on the other, since the debt crisis in Europe.
Using data from the Eurobarometer survey we try to establish a link of prevailing poverty and unemployment inside EU and distrust to the EU. The statistical analysis supports the idea that there is a strong positive relationship between higher risk of poverty and higher unemployment at European level and the ratio of distrust to the European Union.

I just published NARASĪHA NADATI. Do not forget that an economic crisis is easier to start than to stop and it can come with no warning. Just some circumstantial elements can bring a whole country down. A lot of debts, a pandemic, a... more

I just published NARASĪHA NADATI. Do not forget that an economic crisis is easier to start than to stop and it can come with no warning. Just some circumstantial elements can bring a whole country down. A lot of debts, a pandemic, a hostile environment, all sorts of stakes among the big countries, the USA's being hostile to anything Chinese or closely connected, the tariff war started by Trump and continued, perpetuated by Biden, and then men, women and children dying every day, all that might be enough. And add to that the price of energy surging, power cuts every day crippling industry and daily life, not to speak of transportation, plus inflation to crown it all. And Paff! here you are! An economic recession, and politicians that look and sound unable to strop it though they should have tried to prevent it. It is strange how this family of politicians who have decades upon decades of experience got just trapped in this snare.

The financial crisis that began in the US in the year 2007 became a full-scale crisis in the year 2008 and 2009 which, in turn, affected each and every economy in some way or the other including the ones which were not directly related to... more

The financial crisis that began in the US in the year 2007 became a full-scale crisis in the year 2008 and 2009 which, in turn, affected each and every economy in some way or the other including the ones which were not directly related to the crisis. There has been considerable slowdown in most developed countries. Investment banks have collapsed, rescue packages were drawn up involving more than a trillion US dollars, and interest rates have been cut around the world in what looks like a coordinated response. Leading indicators of global economic activity, such as shipping rates, had declined at alarming rates. The objectives of the present paper are: (i)to learn about the causes of global recession an financial crisis 2008-09 (ii) to understand the nature & implications of global recession on the business (iii) to learn more about the impact of global recession on the developed countries as well as emerging countries

The textile industry has been one of the most resilient in the current economic recession with positive overall results in the sector although there was a contraction of the online sales last year in Spain. Precisely e-commerce is... more

The textile industry has been one of the most resilient in the current economic recession with positive overall results in the sector although there was a contraction of the online sales last year in Spain. Precisely e-commerce is expected to be an important source of growth in the sector in the upcoming years so it seems necessary to determine the influence of the recession on consumers’ shopping behaviour.
To address this objective a quantitative approach has been taken through the application of a questionnaire to 1522 people in Spain to determine first, how consumers´ shopping experiences relate to their income level and secondly, what motivates consumers to use different channels and their intentions to use them based on their working situation. The results establish the need of creating a superior shopping experience in bricks-and-mortar stores and online channel and to promote the use of e-commerce by fashion retailers.
The theoretical framework of hedonic and utilitarian shopping values is applied to measure consumers’ shopping experiences and shopping motivations in a multichannel retail environment, in the textile sector, in Spain.

The United States continues to be defined by racial concentration, where most racial/ethnic groups live apart from each other. For homeownership, neighborhoods with large proportions of racial minorities is oftentimes linked to negative... more

The United States continues to be defined by racial concentration, where most racial/ethnic groups live apart from each other. For homeownership, neighborhoods with large proportions of racial minorities is oftentimes linked to negative outcomes for minority homeowners, particularly during the Great Recession. However, middle- and upper-income ethnic neighborhoods, or resurgent neighborhoods, have grown in numbers due to a concentration of immigrants, federal policies favoring professionals, ethnic-specific resources, and affluence. In 2007, about 37% of Los Angeles Latino tracts were resurgent and 53% of Asian tracts were resurgent. This study finds that homeowners in resurgent neighborhoods had lower default/foreclosure rates and predicted probabilities than low-income neighborhoods. Asian resurgent neighborhoods had the lowest predicted probabilities of default or foreclosure, followed by Latino resurgent and White middle-class neighborhoods. There were also discrepancies among Asian neighborhoods based on nativity. Consequently, it is important to recognize that minority neighborhoods are heterogeneous, with differing impacts on homeownership opportunities when examined by class.

Some scholars see the New Deal as a radical break from America’s past political tradition, while others argue that at its heart, the New Deal was actually quite conservative. What evidence do you see for each of those positions, and where... more

Some scholars see the New Deal as a radical break from America’s past political tradition, while others argue that at its heart, the New Deal was actually quite conservative. What evidence do you see for each of those positions, and where do you ultimately come down on the question?