Economic Growth Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping... more

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model where ...

This study takes a new look at the non-linear dynamics of the relationship between taxes and growth by considering six major tax instruments, namely personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, consumption taxes, social security... more

This study takes a new look at the non-linear dynamics of the relationship between taxes and growth by considering six major tax instruments, namely personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, consumption taxes, social security contributions, payroll & workforce taxes, and property taxes, which account for a significant share of total tax revenues in the countries in the sample. To do so, we use a panel data set of nine economies selected on the basis of the availability of data for the period 1981-2017. Unlike most other studies, we calculate marginal tax rates for each tax instrument in the sample countries. We also use a relatively new and more appropriate econometric approach, namely the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model developed by González et al. (2017) to address endogeneity and heterogeneity issues. The main empirical result of the study is that there is a threshold effect in the relationship between individual tax instruments and growth. More specifically, the results show that there is a robust negative relationship between individual tax instruments and growth both below and above the thresholds that are endogenously determined. Overall, the empirical results suggest that corporate income taxes are the most detrimental (or least beneficial) to long-run growth, followed by personal income taxes, consumption taxes, social security contributions, payroll & workforce taxes, and property taxes, respectively. These results suggest that income taxes are growth-harming taxes, suggesting that policymakers should focus on other taxes rather than income taxes to promote growth in the long run.

During the 1990s several alarming reports have been filed concerning policy failures in Third World countries. They indicate that globalisation and the structural adjustment policies of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund... more

During the 1990s several alarming reports have been filed concerning policy failures in Third World countries. They indicate that globalisation and the structural adjustment policies of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have reduced the capacity of government to conduct education and social policies that counteract poverty. Here we suggest an alternative explanation focusing upon internal factors within

The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet’s ecology, as technological... more

The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet’s ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals. But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.

Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that... more

Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that empirically tested the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The results suggest the presence of publication bias in the literature on this topic, where the majority of studies report positive and statistically significant estimates. Findings provide support for the TLGH, but they also suggest that the estimates are sensitive to a number of factors that are related to country, data, specification, and estimation characteristics, and time span. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the relationship between tourism and economic growth across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices. The implications of the results for theory development are also discussed.

El objetivo general que se plantea el trabajo es explicar el modo en que el patrón de crecimiento Argentino estuvo restringido por la escasez de divisas . Se hace foco en distintas variables que determinan el peso de la restricción... more

El objetivo general que se plantea el trabajo es explicar el modo en que el patrón de crecimiento Argentino estuvo restringido por la escasez de divisas . Se hace foco en distintas variables que determinan el peso de la restricción externa en el crecimiento destacándose la estructura productiva, los términos de intercambio, el rol del tipo de cambio y del endeudamiento entre otras. En particular, se centra en el estudio de la etapa que transcurre entre 1940 y 2018 vinculando la trayectoria del balance de pagos a la trayectoria del producto con especificidades propias de cada periodo.

Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that... more

Numerous studies have focused on delineating the relationship between tourism and economic growth. In this article, we present the results of a rigorous meta-regression analysis based on 545 estimates drawn from 113 studies that empirically tested the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The results suggest the presence of publication bias in the literature on this topic, where the majority of studies report positive and statistically significant estimates. Findings provide support for the TLGH, but they also suggest that the estimates are sensitive to a number of factors that are related to country data, specification, and estimation characteristics, and time span. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the relationship between tourism and economic growth across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices. The implications of the results for theory development are also discussed.

Nigeria is endowed with abundant energy resources, both conventional and renewable, whichprovide her with immense capacity to develop an effective national energy plan. However, introduction of renewable energyresources into the nation's... more

Nigeria is endowed with abundant energy resources, both conventional and renewable, whichprovide her with immense capacity to develop an effective national energy plan. However, introduction of renewable energyresources into the nation's energy mix have implications on itsenergy budget. The national energy supply system has been projected intothe future using MARKAL, a large scale linear optimization model.However, this model may not be absolutely representative of the highlynon-linear future of renewable energy. Results of the model reveal that under onlya least cost constraint, only large hydro power technology is the prominentcommercial renewable energy technology in the electricity supply mix of thecountry. Despite the immense solar energy potentials available, solar electricity generation is attractive only under severeCO2 emissions mitigation of the nation's energy supply system. Similarly, the penetration of small-scale hydro power technology in theelectricity supply mix is favoured only under CO2 emissionsconstraints. Due to economy of scale, large hydropower technology takes the lion share of all the commercial renewableenergy resources share for electricity generation under any CO2emissions constraint. These analyses reveal that some barriers exist to thedevelopment and penetration of renewable energy resources electricity production in Nigeria's energy supplysystem. Barriers and possible strategies to overcome them arediscussed. Intensive efforts and realistic approachtowards energy supply system in the country will have to be adopted inorder to adequately exploit renewable energy resources and technologiesfor economic growth and development.

Questo libro è il primo e-book elaborato dal Gruppo di Discussione "Crescita, Investimenti e Territorio" nel 2014. il secondo ebook: Cappellin R., Baravelli M., Bellandi M., Camagni R., Ciciotti E., Marelli E. (2015), a cura di,... more

This article presents empirical evidence from household and firm survey data collected during 2009−2010 on the implementation of the 2008 Labor Contract Law and effects on China’s workers. The Government and local labor bureaus have made... more

This article presents empirical evidence from household and firm survey data collected during 2009−2010 on the implementation of the 2008 Labor Contract Law and effects on China’s workers. The Government and local labor bureaus have made substantial efforts to enforce the provisions of the new Law, which has likely contributed to reversing a trend toward increasing informalization of the urban labor market. Enforcement of the Law, however, varies substantially across cities. The article analyzes the determinants of worker satisfaction with the Law’s enforcement, workers’ propensity to have a labor contract, their awareness of the Law’s content and their likelihood of initiating disputes, and finds that all are highly correlated with education level, especially for migrants. Although higher labor costs may have had a negative impact on manufacturing employment growth, this has not led to an overall increase in aggregate unemployment or prevented the rapid growth of real wages. Less p...

While virtually everyone has heard of the Industrial Revolution, which is correctly credited with bringing increased prosperity to the world, very few know much about the magnitude of that prosperity. Moreover,the beliefs that many hold... more

While virtually everyone has heard of the Industrial Revolution, which is correctly credited with bringing increased prosperity to the world, very few know much about the magnitude of that prosperity. Moreover,the beliefs that many hold about the causes of that economic growth, beyond the basics of the Industrial Revolution, are wrong. This short paper summarizes the economic growth of the past two centuries and the reason for this growth at this time in history, in what is known as the Great Enrichment.

This study investigates the relationship between exports, foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth in five Eurozone countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy) using panel data for the period 1970 to 2011. The... more

This study investigates the relationship between exports, foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth in five Eurozone countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy) using panel data for the period 1970 to 2011. The panel data causality results revealed that there is bidirectional causality between exports and economic development, while there is no causality between economic growth and FDI nor between FDI and exports.

Environmental pollution is nowadays one of the main challenges of the world. The global economic growth and the associated environmental degradation have put environmental protection at the forefront of attention. Regarding the aim of... more

Environmental pollution is nowadays one of the main challenges of the world. The global economic growth and the associated environmental degradation have put environmental protection at the forefront of attention. Regarding the aim of economic growth and its impact on environmental quality, the effect of various economic and human factors on environmental pollution and degradation is increasingly gaining importance in Iran. This study investigated the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, trade liberalization, urbanization, financial development, and human development on ecological footprint and environmental degradation in Iran over the period 1971-2015 using the Markov switching-error correction method (MS-ECM). Based on the results, the environmental Kuznets hypothesis was confirmed for the ecological carbon footprint with a reversed-U shape. Economic growth, urbanization, and energy use were found to have a positive and significant effect on environmental degradation, while financial development negatively influenced environmental degradation. Also, human development had a positive effect on the ecological carbon footprint. Finally, it is recommended to save energy, especially fossil fuels, by using clean energy, increase environmental awareness, and enforce strict environmental monitoring.

Spatial price dispersion varies because of climatic fluctuations, marketimperfections, economic growth or economic policies. These variations areoften neglected in poverty studies.In this paper, we propose a simple simulation formula to... more

Spatial price dispersion varies because of climatic fluctuations, marketimperfections, economic growth or economic policies. These variations areoften neglected in poverty studies.In this paper, we propose a simple simulation formula to assess the effecton poverty of a change in the spatial mean or spatial variance of price indiceswithout having to model each household situation. This approach constitutes aconvenient first step of the analysis of the impact of change in pricedistributions before more sophisticated investigation of causality structures andhousehold heterogeneity.

In this note I explore how a non-constant rate of time preference on the part of policymakers affects economic growth. In a simple dynamic general equilibrium model I show that if the incumbent government has a rate of time preference in... more

In this note I explore how a non-constant rate of time preference on the part of policymakers affects economic growth. In a simple dynamic general equilibrium model I show that if the incumbent government has a rate of time preference in the form of a quasi-hyperbolic discounting function tax rates can be substantially higher and economic growth considerably lower than the standard case of exponential discounting.

We combine data on international trade linkages with network methods to examine the global trading system as an interdependent complex network. We map the topology of the international trade network and suggest new network based measures... more

We combine data on international trade linkages with network methods to examine the global trading system as an interdependent complex network. We map the topology of the international trade network and suggest new network based measures of international economic integration, at both a global system-wide level and a local country-level. We develop network based measures that incorporate not only the

Over the past 25 years, Vietnam has attracted, lobbied and effectively used official development assistance (ODA) capital quite effectively, contributing to the increasing economic growth. Particularly, 2017 ended quite impressively by... more

Over the past 25 years, Vietnam has attracted, lobbied and effectively used official development assistance (ODA) capital quite effectively, contributing to the increasing economic growth. Particularly, 2017 ended quite impressively by the achievements of the whole period of 2011-2017. Regarding socio-economy, for the first time in many years, we have completed and exceeded all 13 planned targets. Regarding economic growth, GDP reached 6.81%, exceeding the set plan, which is high compared to other countries in the region and the world. The article will provide evidence and data related to the contribution to Vietnam's economic growth from ODA. Based on the results that we have achieved and taking advantage of the advantages available at home and abroad to be ready to cope with ongoing challenges, specific solutions are required to achieve highly effective and sustainable growth.

Laubscher provides an analysis of SA's business cycle history, 1970 to 2017, focusing on the interaction between long-run growth and short-run cyclical change. The chapter enhances our understanding of the impact of discrete structural... more

Laubscher provides an analysis of SA's business cycle history, 1970 to 2017, focusing on the interaction between long-run growth and short-run cyclical change. The chapter enhances our understanding of the impact of discrete structural shocks and their interaction with the endogenous SA business cycle evolution. A perceptive narrative of the latter, combined with a quantitative analysis, allows a revealing synthesis.

The essential services such as banking, transportation, medicine, education and defense are being progressively replaced by cheaper and more efficient Internet-based web applications. Therefore, the availability of Web services is very... more

The essential services such as banking, transportation, medicine, education and defense are being progressively replaced by cheaper and more efficient Internet-based web applications. Therefore, the availability of Web services is very critical for the socio-economic growth of the society. Distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks pose an immense threat to the availability of these services. The services are severely degraded and hence lot of business loses are incurred due to these attacks. To objectively evaluate DDoS attack's impact, its severity and the effectiveness of a potential defense, we need precise, quantitative and comprehensive DDoS impact metrics that are applicable to web services. In this paper an attempt has been made to analyze impact of DDoS attacks on the Web services. The experiments are conducted in NS-2. The attack traffic is mixed with legitimate traffic at different strengths and impact of DDoS attacks are measured in terms of throughput, response time, ratio of average serve to request rate, percentage link utilization, and normal packet survival ratio (NPSR). electronic document is a "live" template. The various components of your paper [title, text, heads, etc.] are already defined on the style sheet, as illustrated by the portions given in this document.

Using panel data for the period 1989-2006 we revisit the empirics of economic growth in the context of the post-communist transition. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms of causation and to the potential endogeneity of the... more

Using panel data for the period 1989-2006 we revisit the empirics of economic growth in the context of the post-communist transition. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms of causation and to the potential endogeneity of the macroeconomic stability indicators considered to be important in the existing literature. Carefully employing a variety of econometric techniques we consistently find that macroeconomic instability is bad for economic growth. We find some evidence that institutions of governance are important for economic growth through their influence on the macroeconomic environment. That is, good institutions are conducive to macroeconomic stability which in turn positively impacts upon economic growth. We also find, in contrast with other work, that investments in education have had a strong positive impact on growth in transition while other 'standard' economic growth determinants remain less important. These findings are shown to be robust to a variety of e...

This paper uses data from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to empirically test Wagner's Law in explaining public expenditure growth in association with economic growth; and if this growth enhanced the public welfare. The Kingdom of... more

This paper uses data from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to empirically test Wagner's Law in explaining public expenditure growth in association with economic growth; and if this growth enhanced the public welfare. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has witnessed a marked increase in government expenditure. We use the Engle and Granger (E-G) two-step cointegration method to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Out of the four model specifications that we have tested, two models indicate that a positive long run relationship exists between government expenditure and economic growth. However, the income elasticities are not large enough to suggest that the growth in government expenditure exceeds the growth in national income; only that upward pressure is exerted. Looking at available data it is clear that governmental expenditures from GDP expansions increased public welfare for Saudis over the test period.

This study answers two questions about power sector reform in Moldova. First, did reform affect the poor and the non-poor differently? Second, are household consumption patterns different for private and public distribution networks? The... more

This study answers two questions about power sector reform in Moldova. First, did reform affect the poor and the non-poor differently? Second, are household consumption patterns different for private and public distribution networks? The study concludes that reforms have not disproportionately affected the poor. The gap in electricity consumption between poor and non-poor is closing, as a result of improvements in the supply of electricity, particularly in rural areas, and the significant growth in income over the past four years. Moldova's residential electricity consumption remains exceptionally low and is probably highly inelastic, especially for the very poor. This implies that unless they are accompanied by increases in income, future tariff increases could create large potential consumer welfare losses-as well as large revenue gains for the utility. It also implies that there may be room for substantial welfare gains by helping households better manage their electricity ex...