Istanbul Stock Exchange Research Papers (original) (raw)

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- Finance, Cognitive Science, Machine Learning, Data Mining

Extreme returns in stock returns need to be captured for a successful risk management function to estimate unexpected loss in portfolio. Traditional value-at-risk models based on parametric models are not able to capture the extremes in emerging markets where high volatility and nonlinear behaviors in returns are observed. The Extreme Value Theory (EVT) with conditional quantile proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000) is based on the central limit theorem applied to the extremes rater than mean of the return distribution. It limits the distribution of extreme returns always has the same form without relying on the distribution of the parent variable. This paper uses 8 filtered EVT models created with conditional quantile to estimate value-at-risk for the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The performances of the filtered expected shortfall models are compared to those of GARCH, GARCH with student-t distribution, GARCH with skewed student-t distribution and FIGARCH by using alternative back-t...

- by Sait Yilmazer
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- Economics, Risk Management, Emerging Markets, Emerging Market
- by Cagnur Balsari
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- Risk assessment, Historical Cost, Classification, Information Content

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models; recurrent neural network (RNN), dynamic artificial neural network (DAN2) and the hybrid neural networks which use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) to extract new input variables. The comparison for each model is done in two view points: MSE and MAD using real exchange daily rate values of Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) index XU10).

The principal aim of the study is definitely to inspect the influence of working capital management practice on firm profitability of the Turkish chemical, petrol, and plastic manufacturing firms listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) for a period of five years (2012-2016). Hence, working capital components that employed as independent variables were; accounts receivable period (ARP), inventory conversion period (ICP), accounts payable period (APP), and cash conversion cycle (CCC). The profitability measures that destined to be used as dependent variables were; both return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) and in addition to that, current ratio (CR), debt ratio (DR), and sales growth (SG) were intended to be applied as control variables. Correlation and regression analysis were employed as a statistical testing tool for the study to uncover the association between independent and dependent variables and then reach the possible goals of the study. As a result, the study witnessed that firm profitability has a positive and negative correlation with ARP and ICP variables respectively. The result also disclosed that ROA has a negative and positive correlation with APP and CCC variables respectively whereas ROE has a positive and negative correlation with APP and CCC variables respectively. Finally, the researcher recommends shortening CCC and APP variables and also building strong communication among purchasing, production, and marketing departments to strengthen the entire business operations and overcome scarcity or excessive inventories.

Forecasting stock price or stock index is an important financial subject that has attracted researchers' attention for many years. In this paper, we put forward a new method called HLP as data preprocessing to process the stock data. By HLP method we can get the stock high low point with different frequency and amplitude. The extracted data describes the feature of stock price movement. After that we construct ANN models to forecast the stock movement direction and price. The HLP method and ANN models give assistance to investors.

- by sameer bhardwaj
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- Finance, Cognitive Science, Machine Learning, Data Mining
- by Omer Dincer and +1
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- Cultural Studies, Strategic Management, Strategic Planning, Management Development
- by Meltem Ozturan
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- Finance, Cognitive Science, Machine Learning, Data Mining
- by Samuel Gui
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- Marketing, Economics, Econometrics, Corporate Governance
- by HousamAl Rjoub
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- Macroeconomics, Applied Economics, Stock Market, Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Kurumsal yönetim ilkelerini benimseyen ve uygulayan firmaların hisse senetlerinden oluşan Kurumsal Yönetim Endeksi’nin volatilitesinin ulusal gösterge endeksi olan BİST 100 Endeksinin volatilitesine göre daha düşük olup olmadığını sınamak amacıyla; ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH ve TGARCH modelleri kullanılarak 31.08.2007 – 31.12.2013 tarihleri arasında BİST Kurumsal Yönetim ve BİST 100 Endekslerine ait 1592 adet günlük veri kullanılarak E – Views 8 ekonometri paket programı yardımıyla analizler gerçekleştitilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre her iki piyasada da volatilite kümelenmeleri gözlemlenmiştir. Piyasada meydana gelen şokların yarılanma süresi BİST 100 Endeksinde göre daha azdır. Hesaplanan volatilitelerde ise XKURY Endeksinin volatilitesi BİST 100 Endeksine göre daha düşük seviyede gerçekleşmiştir. Böylelikle Kurumsal yönetim ilkelerini benimseyen ve uygulayan firmaların hisse senetlerinden oluşan Kurumsal Yönetim Endeksi’nde risk oranı BİST 100 Endeksine nazaran daha düşük olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

- by Ozkan Sahin
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- Corporate Governance, Volatility, GARCH, Istanbul Stock Exchange
- by Hulisi Öğüt
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- Multivariate Statistics, Data Mining, Stock Market, Logistic Regression
- by Mandeep Singh
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- Information Systems, Applied Mathematics, Fuzzy Logic, Pattern Recognition

Riskin temel göstergesi olan volatilite, finansın en önemli konularından birini oluşturmakta ve bu durum piyasa aktörleri ve akademisyenler tarafından dikkatle izlenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'de 1997 – 2014 yılları arasında volatilite alanında yapılmış lisansüstü tezlerinin incelenerek alandaki araştırma eğilimlerinin belirlenmesidir. Sonuçlar frekans ve yüzde tablosu olarak sunulmuştur. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye'de volatilite üzerine 167 lisansüstü tez gerçekleştirilmiştir. Tezlerin 116'sı yüksek lisans, 51'i doktora tezidir. 117 tezin yayınlanmasına izin verilmiş iken 51'i izinsizdir. En çok kullanılan model 96 defa ile GARCH modelidir. En çok ele alınan endeks 58 defa ile BİST 100 endeksidir. En çok kullanılan veri sıklığı 96 defa ile günlük verilerdir. A Content Analysis About Master Theses And Dissertations In Volatility ABSTRACT Volatility that is the main indicator of the risk constitutes one of the most important issues of the finance and this situation is being watched closely by market participants and academics. The main aim of this study is; to determine the study tendencies of the postgraduate and Phd thesis by examining postgraduate thesis were made the dates between 1997 – 2014 in Turkey. Results are presented as frequencies and percentages of the table. According to analyse results, 167 postgraduate and Phd thesis on volatlility were made in Turkey. 116 of them was post graduate thesis and 51 of them was Phd thesis. 117 thesis have permission to publish while 51 of the do not permission. The most widely used volatility calculation model is the GARCH model that was used 96 times.

- by Ozkan Sahin
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- Turkey, Volatility, Istanbul Stock Exchange
- by Halil Kiymaz
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- Stock Market, Emerging Market, Market efficiency, Stock Price

"The trade based manipulation has negative effects on investors, stock market and so, depending on them on whole economy. Consequently, a study based on determination of manipulation will provide information to related individuals. The goal of this study is evaluating the usability of financial ratios in trade based manipulation as an indicator when the investors make the stock selection decision. To make this evaluation Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis are used. In the study, the data between the years 1996-2005 that about trade based manipulation are gained from the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the financial ratios are calculated. These ratios are formed as independent variables in the analysis. Beside the independent variables, the dependent variable is coded as dichotomous “0” and “1” according to the trade based manipulation’s realization case. According to the analysis, we reach the conclusion as the independent variables of “Return on Assets” and “Book Value per Share” are the important financial ratios to determine the trade based manipulation."

- by Melik Kamışlı
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- Finance, Discriminant Analysis, Manipulation, Logistic Regression Analysis
- by Mehmet Balcilar
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- Time Series, Applied Economics, Wavelet Transform, Brownian Motion
- by Gözde Ünal
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- Economics, Financial Economics, Risk Management, Emerging Markets

The paper aims to investigate the factors affecting share liquidity of industrial companies in Turkey. the annual ranking data of 199 industrial companies listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) were used for this study which covers a period of 8 years from 2005-20012. A regression analysis model is applied to test the relationship between factors such as " Liquidity ratio (LQR), debt ratio (DR), earnings per share (EPS), market capitalization (MAKCAP), book to market ratio (BV/MV), return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE) " and share liquidity ratio (LQR).The result shows that there is an insignificant relation with each of debt ratio, earning per share, and return on equity, and shows positive relation with each of firm size, book to market ratio, and return on assets.

- by Sedeaq Nassar
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- Istanbul Stock Exchange

The trade based manipulation has negative effects on investors, stock market and so, depending on them on whole economy. Consequently, a study based on determination of manipulation will provide information to related individuals. The goal of this study is evaluating the usability of financial ratios in trade based manipulation as an indicator when the investors make the stock selection decision. To make this evaluation Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis are used. In the study, the data between the years 1996-2005 that about trade based manipulation are gained from the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the financial ratios are calculated. These ratios are formed as independent variables in the analysis. Beside the independent variables, the dependent variable is coded as dichotomous “0” and “1” according to the trade based manipulation’s realization case. According to the analysis, we reach the conclusion as the independent variables of “Return on Assets” and “Book Value per Sh...

- by Nuray Girginer
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- Stock Market, Logistic Regression, Discriminant Analysis, Financial Ratios
- by Fethi Calisir
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- Information Technology, Human Capital, Intellectual Capital, Profitability
- by Halil Kiymaz
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- Initial public offering, Stock Market, Emerging Market, Statistical Significance

Istanbul's place in the global financial system has become regionally prominent as Turkey has opened up to a globalizing economy since the 1980s. The AKP government now wants to not only entrench Istanbul's status as an attractive emerging market but also make Istanbul a globally important financial services centre. For this, a project of reforms, initiatives and building work has recently been put in motion. The article contextualizes this project by looking at the politics, economy and markets nexus in Turkey since the 1980s. It then reviews the project's progress in various domains and comments on its future by taking cues from recent political turns in the AKP leadership concerning economy and financial system.

- by Emre Tarım
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- Turkish politics, Istanbul, Istanbul Stock Exchange, Financial Globalization
- by Halil Kiymaz
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- Emerging Market, Foreign Exchange, Foreign exchange risk, Istanbul Stock Exchange

In this study, the impact of adopting International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) on listed companies in
Turkey was examined. We observed the financial statements that were prepared in accordance with IFRS and
local GAAP and researched the standards which included more relevant information. We worked on the financial
statements of the companies in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) that operated in the manufacturing industry. In
our findings, we determined that the financial statements prepared in accordance with local GAAP and IFRS
were statistically different. Significant differences were identified in inventories, fixed asset, long term liability
and stockholders’ equity accounts in the financial statements. In addition, current ratios, receivables turnover
ratios, asset turnover ratios, total liabilities/tangible assets, fixed assets turnovers, equity turnover rates, short
term liabilities/total debts and short term liabilities/total assets ratios based on IFRS financial statements were
statistically and significantly distinguished from the stated ratios of local GAAP financial statements. We were
unable to observe statistically significant differences in book value/market value ratio analysis depending on the
market value under local GAAP and IFRS. However, in subsector analysis, we identified that some subsector
groups have been affected from the transition to IFRS.

In this chapter, I describe the role of storytelling as a framing device for helping to manage information flows in financial markets. In doing so, I draw on Michel Callon’s conceptual discussion of the importance of framing to the success of market-based exchange relationships. Callon has argued that frames imposed on phenomena and their relationships can disentangle things and render them calculable. To summarize his arguments, I begin with Callon’s discussion on framing in financial markets (1998b, 1999), in order to highlight the neglected role of storytelling in the framing of market phenomena and overflow management in financial markets. I then take this theoretical conversation with Callon to Istanbul, where I have conducted fieldwork research on the ways in which investors and brokerage firms have made sense of financial markets. I thereby demonstrate how storytelling has served to manage flows of information by generating and maintaining shared frames and interpretive templates (Czarniawska, 2008), and how these frames were subjected to occasional overflows. Callon has suggested that a market is a coordination device by which individuals can enter and leave the economic exchange as strangers (1998b, 1999). Frames, a notion Callon borrowed from Goffman (1974), can be seen as brackets or stabilizing devices which create ‘a clear and precise boundary’ (Callon, 1999: 187) among connections to be considered, and connections which can be ignored by actors in their calculations on market exchanges.

- by Emre Tarım
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- Narrative, Sociology of Finance, Social Studies of Finance, Michel Callon
- by Selim Zaim and +1
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- Management, Marketing, Strategic Management, Strategic Planning

This study examines the random walk hypothesis to determine the validity of weak form of efficiency for Istanbul Stock Exchange in Turkey. Weekly log returns from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2008 in ISE National 100 Index are subjected to a serial correlation test, a runs test, an augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and a Lo and MacKinlay variance ratio test for the full sample period. With the exception of augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test for return series, serial correlation, runs and Lo and MacKinlay tests for return series and augmented Dickey Fuller unit root tests for price series provide statistical results which are consistent with the weak form of efficiency argument. Thereby, the findings of this study imply that Istanbul Stock Exchange is a weak form efficient stock market between 2003 and 2008. On the other hand, the complex behavior of stock market data necessitates caution for the interpretation of the findings.

- by evrim apan ceylan
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- Efficient Market Hypothesis, Istanbul Stock Exchange
- by ömer baykan
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- Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market, Artificial Neural Networks

This study examines the impact of volatility shifts on volatility persistence for three major sector indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and ISE National 100 index over the period beginning from 1997 and ending in 2009. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model is extended by taking account of the volatility shifts which are determined by using iterated cumulative

- by Morteza Saberi
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- Information Systems, Engineering, Genetics, Applied Mathematics

Performance measurement and assessment are fundamental to management planning and control activities of complex systems such as conventional power plants. They have received considerable attention by both management practitioners and theorists. There has been several efficiency frontier analysis methods reported in the literature. However, each of these methodologies has its strength and weakness. This study proposes a non-parametric efficiency frontier analysis methods based on adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and genetic algorithm clustering ensemble (GACE) for performance assessment and improvement of conventional power plants. The proposed ANFIS-GA algorithm is capable to find a stochastic frontier based on a set of input–output observational data and do not require explicit assumptions about the functional structure of the stochastic frontier. Furthermore, it uses a similar approach to econometric methods for calculating the efficiency scores. Moreover, the effect of the return to scale of a power plant on its efficiency is included and the unit used for the correction is selected by notice of its scale. GACE is used to cluster power plants to increase homogeneousness. The proposed approach is applied to a set of actual conventional power plants to show its applicability and superiority. The superiority and advantages of the proposed algorithm are shown by comparing its results against ANN Fuzzy C-means Algorithm and conventional econometric method.► This study proposes a non-parametric efficiency frontier analysis methods based on adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and genetic algorithm clustering ensemble (GACE) for performance assessment and improvement of conventional power plants. ► The proposed ANFIS-GA algorithm is capable to find a stochastic frontier and do not require explicit assumptions about the functional structure of the stochastic frontier. ► The proposed ANFIS-GA algorithm uses a similar approach to econometric methods for calculating the efficiency scores. ► The effect of the return to scale of a power plant on its efficiency is included and the unit used for the correction is selected by notice of its scale.

- by Morteza Saberi
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- Information Systems, Engineering, Genetics, Applied Mathematics
- by Orhan Celik
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- Ownership Structure, Institutional Investors, Investment, Profitability

The attitude of individual investors is strongly correlated with their sentiment, so their behavior on the stock market can generate important changes in price fluctuations. The aim of our study was to provide evidence regarding the relationship between the evolution of stock market and the individual investor sentiment, proxy by the consumer confidence index. This study is conducted on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) for a 10 year time period, starting from 2002 to 2011 and includes 120 observations. The results proved that there is a positive correlation between changes in consumer confidence and stock market returns, demonstrating that individual investor sentiment affects stock prices. However, the influence of individual investor sentiment seems to be quickly removed by the force of arbitrage. The price adjustments are realized in less than a month. Moreover, the influence of individual investor sentiment on the prices of the most 10 liquid companies from BSE is not statisti...

- by Dragos Stefan Oprea
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- Behavioral Finance, Stock Market, Investor Sentiment, Noise

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) on a monthly basis, for the period January 2001 to September 2005.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines six pre‐specified macroeconomic variables which are: the term structure of interest rate, unanticipated inflation, risk premium, exchange rate and money supply. All these are the same as those used by Chen, Roll and Roll for the US market. In this study, the authors develop one more variable namely unemployment rate, which has a relation with the stock return.FindingsUsing the OLS technique, the authors observed that there are some differences among the market portfolios. Before starting to comment on the result of OLS, the serial correlation problem was discussed by using Durbin‐Watson statistics. In this study, the critical values were ranged from between 1.33 and 1.81 (T=57, K=6). Our test results confirmed that in ten out of the...

- by Turgut Türsoy
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- Economics, Macroeconomics, Applied Economics, Stock Market

The purpose of this study is to test causal relationships between stock price and trading volume for 9 corporation stock where of the selected from among ISE-30 and companies operating in different sectors in the ISE. The data is based on session’s observations approximately 2500 and the period covers 2 January 2003-31 December 2007. Study using Granger causality test; 9 companies whose subject to the application from 7 to the one-way causality from price (return) to trading volume has been determined.

- by M. Sinan Temurlenk
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- Economics, Istanbul Stock Exchange
- by Salim Dursunoglu
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- Stock Market, Emerging Market, Random Walk, Market efficiency
- by Kamil Yilmaz
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- Econometrics, Applied Economics, Stock Market, Volatility
- by Muge Tiryakioglu
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- Risk Management, Applied Economics, Stock Market, Financial Regulation

This article presents a sociological–narrative approach to studying sensemaking and legitimation in financial markets, and applies this to the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The sociological–narrative approach taken here differs from standard economics and psychology theories on market behaviour and outcomes. It draws on the existing literature on sensemaking and legitimation in organizations and financial markets, and postulates that financial markets, as realms of meaning and practice, are prone to be structurally incoherent. The incoherence is argued to stem from positionality of market actors. By positionality, I refer to an actor’s position in division of labour in market organizations and to an investor’s place in market-specific investor classifications. These imply different epistemic resources at the disposal of different actors, and hence structural incoherence in meanings and practices in financial markets. The article demonstrates an example of this incoherence in the case of the ISE by looking at sensemaking and legitimation stories and practices of brokers, investment analysts, media figures and regulators in this market.

- by Emre Tarım
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- Narrative, Storytelling, Legitimacy, Stock Markets

In this article, I follow the lead opened up by Tilly (1999, 2002) who was interested in people's storytelling. I do so by looking at sense-making and the legitimacy narratives of market actors in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Tilly (2006, 2008) himself walked the narrative path and investigated Why and how people give reasons and how people attribute Credit and Blame to other's actions. These books provide insights into people's storytelling in the everyday situations of the home, courtrooms, hospitals, and so on. Nevertheless, Tilly's faith in the prevalence of technical accounts as modes of explanation in intra and inter organisational settings, and superior stories as mode of communication between expert givers and non-specialized receivers, seems to ignore informational uncertainties, intra and inter organisational hierarchies and conflicts pertinent to organisations. It is these factors that push standard stories (Tilly, 1999) into the forefront at the expense of technical stories within the story exchanges of market actors. I demonstrate this by presenting a sample of story exchanges from the Istanbul Stock Exchange under situations of informational uncertainties and organisational conflicts.

- by Emre Tarım
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- Storytelling, Financial Markets, Charles Tilly, Istanbul Stock Exchange
- by Mustafa Kemal YILMAZ
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- Business, Finance, Turkish Economy, Risk Management

- by Sait Yilmazer
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- Economics, Risk Management, Risk assessment, Emerging Markets

Abstract: This paper seeks whether the intraday patterns observed in most stock markets hold for an individual stock from the Istanbul Stock Exchange where the trading ceases for two hours during lunchtime. It investigates the most treated topics in market finance like liquidity, returns and volatility through their various indicators by periodically regrouping transaction data and making use of parametric and nonparametric tests. It excludes the analysis of spread due to its uninformativeness in the presence of very discrete prices. The results show that liquidity-related variables ’ path can be described by an asymmetric “W”curve, namely a “reverse J ” curve in the morning session and a “U ” curve in the afternoon session. While returns do not exhibit a precise path, overnight returns are apparent. Price and return volatilities are very high in level and stable during the day. Sensitivity analysis suggests that choice of 5-minute versus 15-minute intervals slightly matters.

- by Gaëlle Le Fol
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- Microstructure, Statistical Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Volatility

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to apply Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC™) of Pulic to compare quoted information technology and communication companies on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), in terms of intellectual capital efficiency. This study also examines VAIC™, and its components' impact on company performance. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple regression analysis was employed to identify the variables that significantly contribute to the company performance. Data required to calculate VAIC™ and its components were obtained from the 2005-2007 annual reports and balance sheets of the companies. Findings – As a whole, all the companies had a relatively higher human capital efficiency than structural and capital efficiencies. In 2007, Turkcell was the most efficient company based on VAIC™ assessment, while Link Bilgisayar and Plastikkart were the least efficient companies. Additionally, the results of the study revealed that factors such as human capita...

- by ece deniz
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- Information Technology, Human Capital, Intellectual Capital, Profitability

Maliyet davranışı; işletmenin faaliyet hacmindeki değişmelere bağlı olarak belirli bir maliyet unsurunun nasıl değişeceği ya da nasıl davranacağını ifade etmektedir. Yapışkan maliyetleri anlamak, şirketlerin kaynaklarını ve kapasitelerini daha verimli biçimde belirlemelerine ve yönetmelerine yardımcı olmaktadır. Yöneticiler genellikle ürün ve faaliyetlerin maliyetleri ile ilgilenmektedirler. Pazarlama, satış ve dağıtım giderleri ile genel yönetim giderleri firmaların mali durumuna göre maliyet yapışkanlık derecesini değiştirmektedir. Çalışmanın uygulama kısmında panel veri analizi kullanılmış ve Borsa İstanbul’da yer alan dört farklı sektördeki imalat işletmelerinin maliyet verilerinden yararlanılarak maliyet yapışkanlığı farlılıkları incelenmiştir. Analizde satışlar ile satışların maliyeti, pazarlama, satış ve dağıtım giderleri ve genel yönetim giderleri kullanılmıştır. Bu sektörlerden üçünde maliyet yapışkanlığı tespit edilememiş; taşa toprağa dayalı sektörde ise pazarlama, satış ve dağıtım giderlerinde maliyet yapışkanlığı tespit edilmiştir.
Cost behavior refers how a particular cost element would change or how it would behave depending on the changes in the operating volume of the business. Understanding sticky costs helps companies identify and manage their resources and capacities more efficiently. Managers are often concerned with the costs of products and activities. Marketing, sales and distribution expenses and general management expenses change the degree of cost stickiness according to the financial position of firms. In the application part of the study panel data analysis is used and cost-stickiness differences are examined by using the cost data of the manufacturing enterprises in four different sectors in Istanbul Stock Exchange. In the analysis, sales and cost of sales, marketing, sales and distribution expenses and general administrative expenses are used. No cost stickiness is found in three of these sectors while in stone-based sector cost-stickiness is determined in marketing, sales and distribution expenses.

- by Mehmet Sarac
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- Risk Taking, Financial Crisis, Risk Perception, Risk Preference