Catastrophe Modeling Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

The main goal of this paper is to develop a flood management model that takes into account the specifics of catastrophic risk management: highly mutually dependent losses, the lack of information, the need for long-term perspectives and... more

The main goal of this paper is to develop a flood management model that takes into account the specifics of catastrophic risk management: highly mutually dependent losses, the lack of information, the need for long-term perspectives and explicit analyses of spatial and ...

Résumé: Cette étude vise à travailler le concept de « crise politique » par des outils interdisciplinaires, en s’appuyant sur une étude de cas, la crise du 11/09/2001, selon deux approches complémentaires. Tout d’abord, le découpage des... more

Résumé:
Cette étude vise à travailler le concept de « crise politique » par des outils interdisciplinaires, en s’appuyant sur une étude de cas, la crise du 11/09/2001, selon deux approches complémentaires. Tout d’abord, le découpage des séquences de la crise permet de repérer le développement de l’intensité du phénomène dans le temps, et les phases qu’il peut connaître, afin d’observer le comportement des différents types d’acteurs impliqués dans cette crise. Ensuite, étudier la forme dynamique qui préside au déploiement de la crise, du point de vue de l’agresseur mais aussi de la cible, rend compte du fonctionnement interne de ces acteurs, et des possibilités de gestion de crise pour la cible des attentats. A l'aide de la Théorie des catastrophes de René Thom, le but de ce travail est de montrer la pertinence de l’interdisciplinarité pour penser les crises politiques, et de mettre celle-ci en pratique afin de faire évoluer la connaissance d’un phénomène dans un domaine précis (crise politique), par son éclairage sous une autre discipline.
Abstract:
This study aims to work the concept of “political crisis” using interdisciplinary tools. It is based on a case study, the crisis of the September 11 attacks, analyzed according to two complementary approaches. First, the breakdown of the sequences of this crisis makes it possible to identify the development of the intensity of the phenomenon over time, and its phases, in order to observe the behavior of the different types of actors involved in the crisis. Then, we have to study the dynamic “morphology” that shapes the deployment of the crisis, from the point of view of the aggressor but also from the target, using René Thom’s Catastrophe Theory. This accounts for the internal functioning of these actors, and also, shows crisis management opportunities for the target of these attacks. The purpose of this work is to put forward the relevance of interdisciplinarity to think political crises, and to put interdisciplinarity into practice in order to improve the knowledge of a phenomenon in a specific field (political crisis), by studying with another one.

René Thom, the famous mathematician and critic of current science was only attracted by semiotics and linguistics indirectly. At a point in his career as a mathematician, being appointed to the Institute of Advanced Research in the... more

René Thom, the famous mathematician and critic of current science was only attracted by semiotics and linguistics indirectly. At a point in his career as a mathematician, being appointed to the Institute of Advanced Research in the Sciences (Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques) in Paris, he began to reflect on the role of topology and topological dynamics in the fields of physics, chemistry and biology. In the 60s he exchanged letters with the English theoretician of biology C.H. Waddington, who wrote a preface to the first (French) edition of Thom’s book “Stabilité Structurelle et Morphogenèse” (1972) and to its translation into English (1975).
In the second preface Waddington refers to his own book published in 1940 “Organizers and Genes” (cf. Thom, 1977: XVIII), where he formulated some fundamental questions of theoretical biology, to which Thom found a mathematical answer. One problem of biology is that it cannot be explicitly founded in laws of physics or chemistry. Such a foundation would ask for systems with millions or billions of factors. A topological treatment allows us to jump (theoretically) over these complexities and to formulate the general contours of an explanation (with all the risks such a jump implies). In his foreword to the English translation of Thom’s book (1975), Waddington says that the last chapter of Thom’s book, “From animal to man: thought and language”, is the most stimulating. The reader of Thom must be surprised to see topics from physics linked to problems of human communication and language (ibidem: XIII). The picture Waddington gives is clear-cut: Thom is a mathematician (topologist) normally concerned with questions of theoretical physics, who applies his structural intuitions to the fields of biology, semiotics and linguistics and for this purpose neglects the restrictions which govern scientific discourse in these disciplines. In a much later book, written after the catastrophe controversy (around 1978) and the shift of the theoretical avant-garde to chaos theory, Thom wrote his book on semiophysics “Esquisse d’une sémiophysique” with the subtitle “Physique aristotélicienne et théorie des catastrophes” (1988). His modern Aristotelism which is opposed to the Galileian world view and his renewal of a “Naturphilosophie” in the spirit of Goethe and Schelling were the philosophical horizon, into which he could embed his theoretical thinking. His theory of “prégnance”, which is my topic in this contribution, pertains to this period of his research (i.e., after 1978), and one of my basic concerns will be to explain why and how it stands in a continuity with the models proposed in his book published in 1972.

The literature suggests there is ~0.3 percent chance per year of full-scale nuclear war. This event would have ~20 percent probability of causing U.S. mass starvation due to collapse of conventional agriculture from smoke blocking the... more

The literature suggests there is ~0.3 percent chance per year of full-scale nuclear war. This event would have ~20 percent probability of causing U.S. mass starvation due to collapse of conventional agriculture from smoke blocking the sun. Alternate foods exploit fossil fuels (e.g. methane digesting bacteria) and stored biomass (e.g. mushrooms growing on dead trees) and are technically capable of saving all Americans from starving. However, current awareness is low and the technologies need to be better developed. This Monte Carlo study investigates the economics of three interventions including planning, research and development. Even the upper bound of $20,000 per life saved is far lower than the millions of dollars typically paid to save an American life. Therefore, it should be a high priority to implement these interventions as they would improve American resilience and reduce the possibility of civilization collapse.

The draft paper as at 24th April which is updated from the draft made for the oral presentation session (5th April 2017 does not contain any references and text errors needed corrections). The paper is still being worked on with more... more

The draft paper as at 24th April which is updated from the draft made for the oral presentation session (5th April 2017 does not contain any references and text errors needed corrections). The paper is still being worked on with more sections being added with some aspect areas clarified in more detail. Others are being reviewed. Due to the closure of the Parliament in the UK early for the snap elections, the text is still unfinished and will be resumed for the new Parliament session with no end date set yet. The document is best viewed by a download to Microsoft Word as web browsers tend to muddle the layout. Please note that the ice sheet mass balance changes occur mainly in nearby Iceland, Jan Mayen and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge rather than Greenland itself. (High viscous, low nucleation events pushing very cool, effusive, almost 'solid' lava incursions vertically up like the Mascarene volcanism of Mauritius are rare anomalies from a misaligned hotspot influencing further afield - and therefore far less likely.)

13k Theory, the study of the extraterrestrial impact event occurring 13k years before present, that ended the Pleistocene and ushered in the Neolithic Epoch, damaged the Earth's core, tilted the planet axis 23 degrees, created the... more

13k Theory, the study of the extraterrestrial impact event occurring 13k years before present, that ended the Pleistocene and ushered in the Neolithic Epoch, damaged the Earth's core, tilted the planet axis 23 degrees, created the seasons, the Great Lakes Basin and our modern climate. The 13k event created the perfect climate for species inflation at the same time it created an extinction debt, which is coming due.

The city of New Orleans has long narrated its own demise through reference to "The Big One," a singular hurricane that would destroy the city for good. The "catastrophe to come" is a more or less permanent spectral presence for many of... more

The city of New Orleans has long narrated its own demise through reference to "The Big One," a singular hurricane that would destroy the city for good. The "catastrophe to come" is a more or less permanent spectral presence for many of its residents, evidence of which can be traced as far back as the city's founding in 1718. When it comes to memorialization of Katrina, the central question of this essay is: how does one analyze public memory of an event so thoroughly anticipated, indeed, whose historical anticipation is fundamental to the later memory of it? Rather than merely acting as the historical context within which public memory comes to be interpreted, this anticipation and the anxiety that marks its form figures directly into the reading of the later memory object itself. In this essay, I argue that the repeated narrativization of The Big One is an anxious rhetoric that prefigures post-Katrina memory objects through a process of melancholic rhetorical incorporation. I first engage the history of New Orleans and this anxiety, extrapolating my usage of anxiety and melancholy as rhetorical concepts along the way. Then, I tender a critical analysis that first reads two narratives of such destruction to describe memory's prefiguration, and then turns symmetrically to two post-Katrina memory objects to demonstrate the work of incorporation in the production of memory objects.

Evolutionary epigenetics is the 21st century attempt to study nongenetic inheritance ( epigenetic factors, cytoplasmic and somatic factors, parasites,symbionts, ambient environment, culture & behaviour, membrane inheritance, structural... more

The essay discusses 13k Theory, our theory regarding the catastrophic creation of our modern climate.

... Risk Assessment Branch, Environmental Processes and Engineering Division, Environmental Laboratory (EL); Dr. Kenneth N. Mitchell, Coastal Engineering Branch, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL); Brian K. Harper ... Several useful... more

... Risk Assessment Branch, Environmental Processes and Engineering Division, Environmental Laboratory (EL); Dr. Kenneth N. Mitchell, Coastal Engineering Branch, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL); Brian K. Harper ... Several useful typologies exist (Ascough et al. 2008). ...

This paper investigates the scales and temporalities through which climate change impacts may be rendered into socio-ecological fixes for crises of overaccumulation within the (re)insurance industry. The property insurance and catastrophe... more

This paper investigates the scales and temporalities through which climate change impacts may be rendered into socio-ecological fixes for crises of overaccumulation within the (re)insurance industry. The property insurance and catastrophe reinsurance sectors are notorious for their cyclicity, with prices and returns oscillating dramatically between ‘‘soft’’ and ‘‘hard’’ markets. The problem of overaccummulation in soft market periods is often resolved by the destruction of reinsurers’ capital reserves through huge catastrophic losses. This is typically followed by the revision of catastrophe models and reestimation of exposed values, processes which absorb additional (re)insurance capital and provide technoscientific legitimacy for raising rates. Reframing climate change risk in terms of ecologically-sourced devaluation suggests that, rather than posing an immediate existential threat, in the short to medium term the uncertain impacts of global climate change might constitute a recurrent ‘‘catastrophic fix’’ for particular segments of financial capital. This highlights both the productivity of uncertainty about climate change impacts and the limits of presuming that the operations of the private insurance market can produce a built environment more adapted to climate change. Rather, the more likely outcome is splintering protectionism: a patchwork of high risk, high reward areas where insurance is available only to those with the ability to pay rising premiums, leaving the state to manage the retreat and relocation of less remunerative properties and populations.

Abstract The evolution of human language probably passed several gateways or decisive periods. Our aim is to show that they have the form of a cascade of bifurcations, i.e. of binary choices. At each step small causal cons-tellations may... more

Abstract
The evolution of human language probably
passed several gateways or decisive periods.
Our aim is to show that they have the form of
a cascade of bifurcations, i.e. of binary choices.
At each step small causal cons-tellations may
have decided on which way to go. This explains
the overall improbability of a phenomenon
like human language in the animal
kingdom (which was and is the major argument
of creationists). The hierarchy and temporal
sequence of “decisions” (Darwinian
principles were the deciders) gives us a hint at
the architecture of human language. In particular
the emergence of verbal valence (argument
structure, constructions), of subj-ectpredicate
constellations and syntactic devices
can be explained as a result of these evolutionary
steps. We presume that through-out the
evolution basic schemata of (manual) action,
like the GRASP-schema were of central importance
for the conceptual unfolding of
human language.
Resumen
La evolución de la lengua humana probablemente
pasó por distintos períodos decisivos o
barreras. Nuestro objetivo es mostrar que tienen
la forma de una cascada de bifurcaciones, o
elecciones binarias. En cada paso, constelaciones
de pequeñas causas decidieron del
camino a seguir. Esto explica la improbabilitad
de un fenómeno como el lenguaje humano en
el reino animal (lo cual ha sido el principal
argumento de los creacionistas cristianos). La
jerarquía y la sucesión de las “decisiones” (dependientes
de los principios de la evolución de
Darwin) nos proporcionan una serie de indicios
sobre la arquitectura del lenguaje humano,
en concreto la aparición de la valencia verbal
(estructura argumental, construcciones), la polaridad
entre el sujeto y el predicado de la frase
y otros rasgos sintácticos pueden ser explicados
como resultado de estas etapas de la evolución.
Asumimos, por último, que la evolución de
esquemas básicos de acción (acción manual),
como el esquema de EMPUÑAR) tuvieron una
importancia fundamental para el desarollo
conceptual del lenguaje humano.

In the last few years there have been various mathematl< models proposed for the treatment of semantic Problems (g«n*l ative models, logical Systems, fuzzy and probabilistic syit Our approach differs from all these prior approaches by the... more

In the last few years there have been various mathematl<
models proposed for the treatment of semantic Problems (g«n*l
ative models, logical Systems, fuzzy and probabilistic syit
Our approach differs from all these prior approaches by the
fact that it does not derive its mathematical tools from
algebra and logic. We rather pick up the suggestions made by
Thom for "topological semantics" (cf. THOM 1970) and for the
treatment of basic semantic problems in the framework of
catastrophe theory (cf. THOM 1973).

The literature suggests there is about a 1 % risk per year of a 10 % global agricultural shortfall due to catastrophes such as a large volcanic eruption, a medium asteroid or comet impact, regional nuclear war, abrupt climate change, and... more

The literature suggests there is about a 1 % risk per year of a 10 % global agricultural shortfall due to catastrophes such as a large volcanic eruption, a medium asteroid or comet impact, regional nuclear war, abrupt climate change, and extreme weather causing multiple breadbasket failures. This shortfall has an expected mortality of about 500 million people. To prevent such mass starvation, alternate foods can be deployed that utilize stored biomass. This study developed a model with literature values for variables and, where no values existed, used large error bounds to recognize uncertainty. Then Monte Carlo analysis was performed on three interventions: planning, research, and development. The results show that even the upper bound of USD 400 per life saved by these interventions is far lower than what is typically paid to save a life in a less-developed country. Furthermore , every day of delay on the implementation of these interventions costs 100–40,000 expected lives (number of lives saved multiplied by the probability that alternate foods would be required). These interventions plus training would save 1–300 million expected lives. In general, these solutions would reduce the possibility of civilization collapse , could assist in providing food outside of catastrophic situations, and would result in billions of dollars per year of return.

Una formalizzazione spinta del sistema di riferimento marxista. L'andamento storico del plusvalore; le tendenze future del processo di accumulazione e le sue contraddizioni; la funzione della rendita e gli schemi di riproduzione di Marx;... more

Una formalizzazione spinta del sistema di riferimento marxista. L'andamento storico del plusvalore; le tendenze future del processo di accumulazione e le sue contraddizioni; la funzione della rendita e gli schemi di riproduzione di Marx; i cicli di riproduzione e il tempo storico irreversibile. Per fare scienza del valore occorre sempre introdurre una misura come fecero Galileo e Newton che poterono fare scienza della gravità misurando masse, accelerazioni e forze. Marx trattò i fatti economici umani con lo stesso metodo scientifico applicato ai fatti fisici; egli non usò che pochi elementari algoritmi espliciti, ma la sua rigorosa impostazione descrittiva è un grande implacabile algoritmo contro il modo di produzione borghese. In questo volume gli schemi di Marx vengono affiancati da una ulteriore dimostrazione poggiante su potenti strumenti matematici che confermano il carattere transitorio del capitalismo.

I comment on human "minimum viable population", based on genetic and archaeological evidence.

This paper is an extension of an earlier paper titled QUANTUM PARTICLES, CONSCIOUSNESS, UNIFIED FIELD THEORY AND RELATIVITY. It addresses the conundrum relating to nature and consciousness. Mind and consciousness has been given scant... more

This paper is an extension of an earlier paper titled QUANTUM PARTICLES, CONSCIOUSNESS, UNIFIED FIELD THEORY AND RELATIVITY. It addresses the conundrum relating to nature and consciousness. Mind and consciousness has been given scant attention in the hard science of physics and has been relegated to the soft science of psychology instead. This evidently stems from the problem that consciousness is not “hard”, tangible or quantifiable whereas physics deals with particles which can be seen when greatly magnified. Though consciousness is intangible we somehow know it is real; we all simply know we have consciousness. Consciousness may possibly pervade the whole universe, possibly forming links with other conscious beings, that is, there is an entanglement of consciousness, which may explain why human beings are so similar in their psychological or mental make-up and closely connected. A moot question is whether consciousness comprises of invisible particles which are similar to, for ex...

En cas de catastrophe. Les systèmes casuels et la dynamique qualitative 1 1. De cas en cas. Un demi-siècle de tâtonnements au sujet des cas profonds Dans un chapitre intitulé « The Case for Case », dont l'écho apparaît dans le titre de... more

En cas de catastrophe. Les systèmes casuels et la dynamique qualitative 1 1. De cas en cas. Un demi-siècle de tâtonnements au sujet des cas profonds Dans un chapitre intitulé « The Case for Case », dont l'écho apparaît dans le titre de cette contribution, Charles Fillmore (1929-2004) avait introduit les « cas profonds » comme cadre (frame) universel des structures phrastiques. Dans les langues classiques à flexion on énumère 5 à 6 cas et on a trouvé des langues pour lesquelles jusqu'à une cinquantaine de cas furent indiquées (en général on peut réduire la liste à un maximum de 15 à 20 cas 2). Les langues sans flexions, souvent appelées analytiques ont d'autres marqueurs, tels les pré-et postpositions, des différences de ton etc. Je vais revenir au constat typologique et statistique plus tard. Si Fillmore (1968) acceptait cinq cas profonds : Agentive, Instrumental, Dative, Locative, Objective assez près des dénominations classiques, on vit apparaître dans la suite d'autres « cas » : Source, Goal et Path , Experiencer (Fillmore, 1969, 1971). Anderson (1971) a élargi la liste des cas locatifs avec Allatif, Ablatif, et cette différenciation peut être poursuivie en distinguant toutes les sortes de mouvements de lieu. L'agentivité peut être spécifiée de façon alternative par les cas : Ergatif /Absolutif (voir les langues ergatives) et le patient peut être Bénéficiaire ou Maléficiaire. Cette augmentation a deux gradients de croissance: 1. On accepte chaque différentiation trouvée dans n'importe quelle langue du monde comme renvoi à une catégorie casuelle implicite (crypto-présente). Même si on néglige les variations mineures d'emploi et de signification entre les langues on arrivera à une liste avec une centaine de cas. 2. Comme la variation lexicale même à l'intérieur d'une langue associe des significations locales aux dépendants nominaux du verbe, on peut augmenter les cas en spécifiant leur fonction détaillée. Cela mène à une explosion du nombre des cas lexicalisés (voir le nombre des verbes et les significations/constructions multiples associées aux verbes). Pour arrêter cette diffraction les linguistes-typologues ont employé trois stratégies : 1. Déduire les cas à partir d'une liste plus petite de traits (voir la stratégie analogue en phonologie). Les traits peuvent avoir un caractère abstrait, par exemple +/-HR (highest role), +/-LR (lowest role). Cette démarche présuppose une hiérarchie linéaire des rôles casuels, par exemple : Nominatif/Absolutif > Accusatif/Ergatif > Datif > Oblique. Parmi les traits sémantiques proposés par Naess (2007 : 109) on trouve: +/-volitional, +/-affected, +/-instigation : « An Agent participant is thus defined as being + Volitional or [+VOL], and +Instigating or [+INST], while a Patient is defined as +Affected or [+AFF] " (ibidem). 2. Distinguer plusieurs niveaux de classification : niveau de l'action (action tier) et niveau thématique (theme tier ; Jackendoff, 1989) ou encore un niveau syntacto-sémantique qui correspond à la position de Fillmore et un niveau lexical qui prend en considération les scénarios typiques.

Resumen Los constantes cambios en los modos de producción y las relaciones de poder entre lugares, e individuos están sin duda entre las solicitaciones externas más significativas ejercidas sobre los sistemas de asentamiento que,... more

Resumen Los constantes cambios en los modos de producción y las relaciones de poder entre lugares, e individuos están sin duda entre las solicitaciones externas más significativas ejercidas sobre los sistemas de asentamiento que, afectando a sus estructuras funcionales de un modo posiblemente catastrófico, los conduce hacia procesos de auge o declive de manera desigual. La evolucionabilidad de los sistemas de asentamiento está muy determinada por la resiliencia de sus estructuras físicas y lógicas, en buena parte analizables mediante la topología de red. Esta topología debe sobrepasar los aspectos materiales del espacio, incorporando sus dimensiones temporal e informacional. Planteo para ello la idea de " conexidad " como variable que aúna la posibilidad materialidad, la probabilidad, y legitimidad de uso de un determinado vínculo topológico. Estudiando las transformaciones estructurales producidas en la comarca del Sobrarbe (Huesca) por un poder político y económico nacional durante el siglo XX —inductoras de su declive actual—, se aportan algunos aspectos clave que pueden ayudar a estructurar la evolución resiliente de los sistemas de asentamiento. Abstract Constant changes in the production modes and power relationships between individuals, objects, and places, are among the most crucial external stresses that the settlement systems have to face. Insofar they affect their functional structures; they unevenly drive them to processes of either growth or shrinkage. Urban evolvability is well dependent on the resilience of both physical and logical structures that articulate a settlement system subjected to locally perceived adverse dynamics. This can be analyzed using network topology tools adapted for the purpose. Those tools should exceed the materiality of social space by incorporating its temporary and informational dimensions. Thus, I suggest the " connexity " as a variable that hinges upon the materiality, the probability and legitimacy of exploiting a topological vertex. Taking into account the socio-spatial changes produced in the Sobrarbe (Huesca) region from the beginning of the 20th century to its current shrinkage, this paper provides an approach to understand some stability conditions that could enable human settlements to be evolvable systems.

The 13k event was a catastrophic extinction event that nearly destroyed the planet. However, in wake of the catastrophe, the surviving remnant populations of humans develop self-consciousness. Post 13k, humanity awakened has traverse... more

The 13k event was a catastrophic extinction event that nearly destroyed the planet. However, in wake of the catastrophe, the surviving remnant populations of humans develop self-consciousness. Post 13k, humanity awakened has traverse the stone age to the space age in a brief 13k years. Humanity begins its ascent of the mountain, a sacred place, upon the self awareness imposed on humanity by nearly becoming extinct. As witnesses to the event, the oral traditions of humanity must be scrutinized to fully understand its impact on the psyche of homo sapiens.

La concezione teorica "catastrofica" marxista espressa dallo schema del rovesciamento della prassi disegnato da Bordiga unisce in un rapporto dialettico il "substrato", cioè l'ambiente economico materiale che è l'arena delle relazioni... more

La concezione teorica "catastrofica" marxista espressa dallo schema del rovesciamento della prassi disegnato da Bordiga unisce in un rapporto dialettico il "substrato", cioè l'ambiente economico materiale che è l'arena delle relazioni umane, con gli effetti dell'ideologia e del "pensiero". L'azione del partito politico, che è sovrastruttura, diventa, al punto di catastrofe, forza materiale che provoca un cambiamento qualitativo di "stato".

Rapid urban development and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries The cities are expanding in all directions resulting... more

Rapid urban development and increasing land use changes due to population and economic growth in selected landscapes is being witnessed of late in India and other developing countries The cities are expanding in all directions resulting in large-scale urban sprawl and changes in urban land use. The spatial pattern of such changes is clearly noticed on the urban fringes or city peripheral rural areas, than in the city centre. In fact, this is reflected in changing urban land use patterns. There is an urgent need to accurately describe land use changes for planning and sustainable management. In the recent times, Remote Sensing and GIS is gaining importance as vital tool in the analysis and integration of spatio-temporal data. The present study highlights a coordinated significance of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques in detecting land use changes that have been experienced in last thirty years in Vadodra and its surrounding areas.

Abstract—Risk Analytics is important to quantify, manage and analyse risks from the manufacturing to the financial setting. In this paper, the data challenges in the three stages of the high-performance risk analytics pipeline, namely... more

Abstract—Risk Analytics is important to quantify, manage and analyse risks from the manufacturing to the financial setting. In this paper, the data challenges in the three stages of the high-performance risk analytics pipeline, namely risk modelling, portfolio risk management and dynamic financial analysis is presented. Keywords-high-performance computing; risk analytics; risk modelling; risk management; data management