Decision Making Processes Research Papers (original) (raw)

Poor performance can turn a successful data warehousing project into a failure. Consequently, several attempts have been made by various researchers to deal with the problem of scheduling the Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) process. In this paper we therefore present several approaches in the context of enhancing the data warehousing Extract, Transform and loading stages. We focus on enhancing the performance of extract and transform phases by proposing two algorithms that reduce the time needed in each phase through employing the hidden semantic information in the data. Using the semantic information, a large volume of useless data can be pruned in early design stage. We also focus on the problem of scheduling the execution of the ETL activities, with the goal of minimizing ETL execution time. We explore and invest in this area by choosing three scheduling techniques for ETL. Finally, we experimentally show their behavior in terms of execution time in the sales domain to understand the impact of implementing any of them and choosing the one leading to maximum performance enhancement.

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- Database Systems, Decision Making Processes, Business Intelligence, Data Warehouse

We conduct a lottery experiment to assess the predictive importance of simple choice process metrics (SCPMs) in forecasting risky 50/50 gambling decisions using different types of machine learning algorithms
as well as traditional choice modeling approaches. The SCPMs are recorded during a fixed pre-decision phase and are derived from tracking subjects’ eye movements, pupil sizes, skin conductance, and cardiovascular and respiratory signals. Our study demonstrates that SCPMs provide relevant information for predicting gambling decisions, but we do not find forecasting accuracy to be substantially affected by adding SCPMs to standard choice data. Instead, our results show that forecasting accuracy highly depends on differences in subject-specific risk preferences and is largely driven by including information on lottery design variables. As a key result, we find evidence for dynamic changes in the predictive importance of psychophysiological responses that appear to be linked to habituation and resource-depletion effects. Subjects’ willingness to gamble and choice-revealing arousal signals both decrease as the experiment progresses. Moreover, our findings
highlight the importance of accounting for previous lottery payoff characteristics when investigating the role of emotions and cognitive bias in repeated decision-making scenarios.

- by Steffen Q. Mueller
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- Neuroeconomics, Eye tracking, Machine Learning, Gambling Studies

In this article, the authors explore how, at the level of a Baurci village approaches the solution of environmental problems and improvement of the village. The results of consultation with inhabitants in the process of decision-making by... more

This is a conceptual paper in exploring the differences in decision making process between family business and non-family business in the construction industry in Malaysia. The understanding of the complexity and dynamics of a family business is becoming more prevalent among researchers. Fast decision making is not only seen as necessary but crucial to ensure speed and efficiency in responding to market opportunities and maneuvering through market uncertainties and tumultuous environment, with the intention to diversify their businesses by finding opportunities towards new venture creation. This study intends to suggest how to simplify decision making and find tactics to have quality decision making. Hence, this study will focus primarily on the decision making process which is mapped against the Bayesian causal map.

- by Leilanie Mohd Nor
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- Decision Making, Family Business, Decision Making Processes, Bayesian Networks

Back cover text: Real Social Science presents a new, hands-on approach to social inquiry. The theoretical and methodological ideas behind the book, inspired by Aristotelian phronesis, represent an original perspective within the social sciences, and this volume gives readers for the first time a set of studies exemplifying what applied phronesis looks like in practice. The reflexive analysis of values and power gives new meaning to the impact of research on policy and practice. Real Social Science is a major step forward in a novel and thriving field of research. This book will benefit scholars, researchers, and students who want to make a difference in practice, not just in the academy. Its message will make it essential reading for students and academics across the social sciences.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg and +1
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- Screenwriting, Critical Theory, Critical Theory, Critical Theory
- by Nikolaos Zahariadis
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

This article examines five common misunderstandings about case-study research: (a) theoretical knowledge is more valuable than practical knowledge; (b) one cannot generalize from a single case, therefore, the single-case study cannot contribute to scientific development; (c) the case study is most useful for generating hypotheses, whereas other methods are more suitable for hypotheses testing and theory building; (d) the case study contains a bias toward verification; and (e) it is often difficult to summarize specific case studies. This article explains and corrects these misunderstandings one by one and concludes with the Kuhnian insight that a scientific discipline without a large number of thoroughly executed case studies is a discipline without systematic production of exemplars, and a discipline without exemplars is an ineffective one. Social science may be strengthened by the execution of a greater number of good case studies.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Contrary to the common belief that more options lead to better decisions, recent research has demonstrated that choosing from a large number of options can have detrimental psychological effects. We investigated whether people were willing to sacrifice resources for more options, and whether choice-making orientation moderated such willingness. As predicted, people who were motivated to make the best choice possible—“maximizers”—were more willing to sacrifice resources such as time to attain a larger choice array than were people who tend to search for a satisfactory choice (i.e., “satisficers”). Additionally, maximizers who sacrificed to attain more options were ultimately less satisfied with their choice relative to maximizers who chose from a small assortment, and to satisficers (Studies 2 and 3). We term the pattern in which maximizers tend to sacrifice resources to attain more options that ultimately reduce their satisfaction, the “Maximization Paradox”.

- by Ilan Dar-Nimrod
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- Personality, Decision Making Processes, Individual Differences, Irrationality
- by Frank Meier
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Phronetic organizational research is an approach to the study of management and organizations focusing on ethics and power. It is based on a contemporary interpretation of the Aristotelian concept phronesis, usually as ‘prudence’. Phronesis is the ability to think and act in relation to values, to deliberate about ‘things that are good or bad for humans’ in the words of Aristotle (1976:1140a24–b12). Phronetic organizational research effectively provides answers to the following four value-rational questions, for specific problematics in management and organization studies: 1. Where are we going with this specific management problematic? 2. Who gains and who loses, and by which mechanisms of power? 3. Is this development desirable? 4. What, if anything, should we do about it?

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Screenwriting, Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship

This paper aims to present an implementation of classical DEA models in R, a free software and open source, highly extensible that offers a variety of functions and graphical routines for data analysis. In this work we show both the CRS and VRS DEA models. The computational implementation is illustrated with real data from the Brazilian electric power distribution utilities.

- by José Francisco Pessanha and +1
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- Optimization (Mathematical Programming), Economics, Energy Economics, Statistics

The Aalborg Project may be interpreted as a metaphor of modern politics, modern administration and planning, and of modernity itself. The basic idea of the project was comprehensive, coherent, and innovative, and it was based on rational and democratic argument. During implementation, however, when idea met reality, the play of Machiavellian princes, Nietzschean will to power, and Foucauldian rationality-as-rationalization resulted in the fragmentation of the project.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

At the same time that case studies are widely used and have produced canonical texts, it may be observed that the case study as a methodology is generally held in low regard, or is simply ignored, within the academy. For example, only 2 of the 30 top-ranked U.S. graduate programs in political science require a dedicated graduate course in case study or qualitative methods, and a full third of these programs do not even offer such a course. In contrast, all of the top 30 programs offer courses in quantitative methods and almost all of them require training in such methods, often several courses. In identifying this paradox of the case study’s wide use and low regard, Gerring rightly remarks that the case study survives in a “curious methodological limbo,” and that the reason is that the method is poorly understood. In what follows, we will try to resolve Gerring’s paradox and help case study research gain wider use and acceptance.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

In this paper we argue that the use of the communicative theory of Jürgen Habermas in planning theory is problematic because it hampers an understanding of how power shapes planning. We posit an alternative approach based on the power analytics of Michel Foucault which focuses on ‘what is actually done’, as opposed to Habermas’s focus on ‘what should be done’. We discuss how the Foucauldian stance problematises planning, asking difficult questions about the treatment of legitimacy, rationality, knowledge and spatiality. We conclude that Foucault offers a type of analytic planning theory which offers better prospects than does Habermas for those interested in understanding and bringing about democratic social change through planning.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Social media play a key role in tourism and hospitality, transforming the way tourists search, find and co-create information about travel-related products, and changing the way they make hotel-related decisions online. The use and influence of social media on consumers' hotel decision-making process however still remains vague to date. This study aimed to uncover how social media influence consumer behaviour during hotel decision-making through a qualitative semi-structured in-depth interview approach. The findings reveal refined dimensions of social media and their influence on the 'Evaluation stage' of the hotel decision journey. The findings revealed that the way consumers search hotel information have changes, as social media paly an important role influencing their decision-making process. This study makes a theoretical contribution to understanding consumers' hotel decision-making process in a technology-assisted context, and offers implications for hospitality practitioners in highlighting how social media can lead to nuanced decision making in the hotel selection process.

- by Barbara Neuhofer and +1
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- Decision Making, Decision Making Processes, Social Media, Online Learning

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

A maneira tradicional utilizada pela Terapia Analítico-Comportamental (TAC) de abordar clientes que procuram atendimento visando aprender a lidar com situações em que devem tomar uma decisão, amiúde, desconsidera variáveis relevantes, tais como repertórios de esquiva experiencial, os valores do cliente, dentre outras, as quais são conceitos norteadores da Terapia de Aceitação e Compromisso (ACT). Deste modo, não obstante na primeira parte deste artigo seja descrita a perspectiva tradicional da TAC sobre o processo de tomada de decisão, na segunda demonstra-se a visão da ACT sobre tal abordagem e sua proposta de intervenção, a qual é seguida pela apresentação de um caso de uma cliente que relatava problemas em tomar decisões, segundo a própria, por ser muito medrosa; a intervenção, a qual foi baseada na ACT, bem como na FAP e em outras abordagens, quando assim se fez necessário; e os resultados.

This article presents the theoretical and methodological considerations behind a research method which the author calls ‘phronetic planning research’. Such research sets out to answer four questions of power and values for specific instances of planning: (1) Where are we going with planning? (2) Who gains and who loses, and by which mechanisms of power? (3) Is this development desirable? (4) What, if anything, should we do about it? A central task of phronetic planning research is to provide concrete examples and detailed narratives of the ways in which power and values work in planning and with what consequences to whom, and to suggest how relations of power and values could be changed to work with other consequences. Insofar as planning situations become clear, they are clarified by detailed stories of who is doing what to whom. Clarifications of that kind are a principal concern for phronetic planning research and provide the main link to praxis.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior, Information Systems

Back cover text: If the new fin de siècle marks a recurrence of the real, Bent Flyvbjerg’s Rationality and Power epitomizes that development and sets new standards for social and political inquiry. The Danish town of Aalborg is to Flyvbjerg what Florence was to Machiavelli: a laboratory for understanding the real workings of power, and for grasping what they mean to our more general concerns of social and political organization. Politics, administration, and planning are examined in ways that allow a rare, in-depth understanding. The reader witnesses, firsthand, the classic and endless drama which defines what modernity and democracy are and can be.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship

“Manfaatnya UU itu apa? Bagi demokrasi dan aparat penegak hukum malah menjadi potensi kerugian karena dengan izin Mahkamah Kehormatan DPR yang paling lambat 30 hari itu bukti bisa hilang, padahal penegakkan hukum harus cepat,"
Menalaah perbandingan sistem politik Malaysia dengan Indonesia dalam kebijakan pembangunan kawasan perbatasan. Dapat ditelaah sistem politik apa saja yang ada dalam kedelapan fungsi politik yang telah di diskripsikan di atas. Bila di lihat perbandingan fungsi-fungsi penyebaran politik Malaysia lebih baik dibandingkan Indonesia dalam mengelola kawasan perbatasan (border policy) tim Sosial, dan ekonomi Sarawak memiliki peran penting dalam menjalankan fungsinya, sedangkan tim sosial, dan ekonomi Indonesia hanya berkutat pada tataran koordinasi sehingga output dari implementasi kebijakan masih menjadi tanya mengenai kebijakan pembangunan di tapal batas (studi kasus Kalimantan Barat).

- by Manap Soham
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- Decision Making Processes

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Determination of subjective weights, which are based on the opinions and preferences of decision-makers, is one of the most important matters in the process of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) is an efficient method for obtaining the subjective weights of criteria in the MCDM problems. On the other hand, decision-makers may express their opinions with a degree of uncertainty. Using the symmetric interval type-2 fuzzy sets enables us to not only capture the uncertainty of information flexibly but also to perform computations simply. In this paper, we propose an extended SWARA method with symmetric interval type-2 fuzzy sets to determine the weights of criteria based on the opinions of a group of decision-makers. The weights determined by the proposed approach involve the uncertainty of decision-makers' preferences and the symmetric form of the weights makes them more interpretable. To show the procedure of the proposed approach, it is used to determine the importance of intellectual capital dimensions and components in a company. The results show that the proposed approach is efficient in determining the subjective weights of criteria and capturing the uncertainty of information.

A recent study on the cost of green buildings indicated that Resource Reuse is the category of credits least often achieved in LEED-certified projects. The literature suggests that there are a number of constraints and barriers to resource reuse, but perhaps the most critical one is the lack of easily accessible information about resource availability and usability. The emerging industries of building materials reuse and de-construction in the United States suffers from the absence of a “system” that would streamline business processes, establish a supply-demand chain, and connect vendors and deconstruction contractors with architects. This research derives an innovative restructuring of the architectural design process that enables resource reuse in new construction. We developed this model by capturing expert knowledge using a Delphi research protocol and mapped the Building Materials Reuse Workflow in Business Process Modeling and Notation language. We set out the knowledgebase requirements that should be integrated with Building Information Modeling to support decision-making by architects and project stakeholders.

- by Ralph Badinelli and +1
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- Decision Making Processes, Waste recycling, Sustainable Construction

Selection of appropriate subcontractors for outsourcing is very important for the success of construction projects. This can improve the overall quality of projects and promote the qualification and reputation of the main contractors. The evaluation of subcontractors can be made by some experts or decision-makers with respect to some criteria. If this process is done in different time periods, it can be defined as a dynamic multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problem. In this study, we propose a new fuzzy dynamic MCGDM approach based on the EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution) method for subcontractor evaluation. In the procedure of the proposed approach, the sets of alternatives, criteria and decision-makers can be changed at different time periods. Also, the proposed approach gives more weight to newer decision information for aggregating the overall performance of alternatives. A numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed approach and show the application of it in subcontractor evaluation. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach is efficient and useful in real-world decision-making problems.

This article provides an answer to what has been called the biggest problem in theorizing and understanding planning: the ambivalence about power found among planning researchers, theorists, and students. The author narrates how he came to work with issues of power and gives an example of how the methodology he developed for power studies—phronetic planning research—may be employed in practice. Phronetic planning research follows the tradition of power studies running from Machiavelli and Nietzsche to Michel Foucault and Pierre Bourdieu. It focuses on four value-rational questions: (1) Where are we going with planning? (2) Who gains and who loses, and by which mechanisms of power? (3) Is this development desirable? (4) What should be done? These questions are exemplified for a specific instance of Scandinavian urban planning. The author finds that the questions, and their answers, make a difference to planning in practice. They make planning research matter.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

This research has been designed because it has been realized that there is only little research carried out about
the student participation in the administration for the structuring of the democratic authority in the higher education
system in Turkey. In the relevant literature, concepts of democratic authority and education have been
approached from two different perspectives. One of these perspectives is the democratic school/education approach
based on the alternative education paradigm, which is not practiced in Turkey. The second perspective is
the democracy approach in school/education. This study seeks an answer to how the process in which students
get involved in the administration of the higher education institutions works. In order to reveal students tendency
between aforementioned paradigms their views and needs about their participation in the decision making process
were analyzed. Within this framework, two focus groups including students at Marmara University in the
2011-2012 academic year who are taking part in the student council and those who are not taking part in the
council have been focused on. The results of the study have been found by means of the content analysis of the
data. The results that can be categorized under three content categories have been compared with the literature
regarding the alternative education and democratic school. According to the results, significant differences
were found between students taking part in the council and those who were not members of the council in terms
of handling some facts and concepts using the terminology in the literature pertaining to democratic education/
school. According to the results, some suggestions have been discussed. The results of the study are also likely
to lead to a set of recommendations on the basis of barriers set in front of students’ participation to shape the
democratic authority at higher education institutions and their suggestions.

- by Halil Eksi
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- Higher Education, Decision Making Processes, Democratic School

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting information and deliberately disregarding risks, proponents instigate projects that result in fewer benefits and higher costs than promised.

- by Renia Ehrenfeucht
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Conducción del proceso de descentralización en el Perú

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this tendency appraisers should make explicit, empirically based adjustments to the estimates of a project’s costs, benefits, and duration. HM Treasury recommends that these adjustments be based on data from past projects or similar projects elsewhere, and adjusted for the unique characteristics of the project in hand. In the absence of a more specific evidence base, HM Treasury has encouraged departments to collect data to inform future estimates of optimism, and in the meantime use the best available data. In response to this, the Department for Transport (henceforth DfT), has contracted Bent Flyvbjerg in association with COWI to undertake the consultancy assignment "Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning". The present Guidance Document is the result of this assignment.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

What is the state of the research on crowdsourcing for policymaking? This article begins to answer this question by collecting, categorizing, and situating an extensive body of the extant research investigating policy crowdsourcing, within a new framework built on fundamental typologies from each field. We first define seven universal characteristics of the three general crowdsourcing techniques (virtual labor markets, tournament crowdsourcing, open collaboration), to examine the relative trade-offs of each modality. We then compare these three types of crowdsourcing to the different stages of the policy cycle, in order to situate the literature spanning both domains. We finally discuss research trends in crowdsourcing for public policy and highlight the research gaps and overlaps in the literature.

- by Araz 𝖳aeihagh
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- Business, Information Systems, Business Administration, Information Science

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Contracts are designed to govern the relations between business partners and allocate risk among them, yet they cannot mitigate all risks; hence, dispute resolution mechanisms have been developed to assist. According to research, arbitration is considered one of the most efficient legally binding dispute resolution mechanisms. Since initiating an arbitration case against business partners often severs the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. To do so, arbitration prediction models are suggested in this paper through modeling the arbitrator's award in two stages: evidence admissibility and evidence evaluation. While arbitrators currently admit evidence in a relatively unsystematic way, this proposed admissibility framework systemizes the current practice by preserving its subjectivity, yet aligning it with the widely deployed rules of arbitration. This research further proposes an evidence evaluation model, providing a rapid answer to the famous commercial arbitration battle, discovery. While the current arbitrators' practice in allowing discovery is not systematic, the proposed optimization model is a tool that could systematically assist arbitrators trading between the arbitration key characteristic, efficiency, and justice. This is achieved by assigning weights to evidence parameters such as sufficiency and credibility, which in turn provide numerical measures to reduce the decision's subjectivity.

- by Abdulla Galadari
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- Engineering, Civil Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Law

Niccolò Machiavelli, the founder of modern political and administrative thought, made clear that an understanding of politics requires distinguishing between formal politics and what later, with Ludwig von Rochau, would become known as Realpolitik. No such distinction has been employed in the study of rationality. Yet I will argue that distinguishing between formal rationality and real rationality is as important for the understanding of rationality and planning as the distinction between formal politics and Realpolitik has been for understanding politics.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

The purpose of the present chapter is to demonstrate how social scientists may engage with mass media to have their research impact public deliberation, policy and practice. Communicating research to practice is part and parcel of applied phronesis and not something external to it. Even in Aristotle's original definition of phronesis, laid down more than two millennia ago, the knowledge–action relationship is clear. A defining characteristic of phronesis is, in Aristotle's words, that it is ‘reason capable of action’ (The Nicomachean Ethics, 1976: Bk VI, 1140a24–1140b12). Phronetic research results (‘reason’) are therefore results only to the extent they have an impact on practice (‘action’). In public affairs, reason is made capable of action by effectively having reason enter the public sphere and public deliberation. It is reason times exposure in the public sphere that matters, not reason alone. Today, mass media dominate the public sphere in liberal democracies. The relationship of research with media therefore needs to be reflected. However, to my knowledge no study exists that describes in detail this aspect of phronetic research. Even in social science as a whole, studies of how scholars work with mass media to secure public impact of their research seem rare (Bagdikian 2004; McCombs 2004; Bryant and Oliver 2009). This, then, is the purpose of the present chapter: to begin to close this gap in our knowledge of social science and phronesis. Because the field is underexplored, it was found to be prudent to start with a phenomenological case study. The study shows how a group of phronetic social scientists, including the author, engaged with media, including world-leading titles such as The New York Times, in order to place their research results on the public agenda and initiate change in their chosen field of interest: megaproject policy and management.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate cost overruns in the Olympic Games. To do so, we examined the costs of the Games over half a century, including both summer and winter Olympics. We looked at the evolution of final reported costs and compared these to the costs established in the Games bids, submitted to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) up to seven years before the Games occurred. In so doing we established the largest dataset of its kind, and documented for the first time in a consistent fashion the costs and cost overruns for the Olympic Games, from 1960 to 2012. We discovered that the Games stand out in two distinct ways compared to other megaprojects: (1) The Games overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No other type of megaproject is this consistent regarding cost overrun. Other project types are typically on budget from time to time, but not the Olympics. (2) With an average cost overrun in real terms of 179 per cent – and 324 per cent in nominal terms – overruns in the Games have historically been significantly larger than for other types of megaprojects, including infrastructure, construction, ICT, and dams. The data thus show that for a city and nation to decide to host the Olympic Games is to take on one of the most financially risky type of megaproject that exists, something that many cities and nations have learned to their peril. For the London 2012 Games, we find that: (1) With sports-related real costs currently estimated at USD14.8 billion, London is on track to become the most costly Olympics ever. (2) With a projected cost overrun of 101 per cent in real terms, overrun for London is below the historical average for the Games, but not significantly so. (3) The London cost overrun is, however, significantly higher than overruns for recent Games since 1999. London therefore is reversing a positive trend of falling cost overruns for the Games.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
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- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

Taken together, the works of Jurgen Habermas and Michel Foucault highlight an essential tension in modernity. This is the tension between the normative and the real, between what should be done and what is actually done. Understanding this tension is crucial to understanding modern democracy, what it is and what it could be. It has been argued that an effective way of making democracy stronger is to strengthen civil society. This article contains a comparative analysis of the central ideas of Habermas and Foucault as they pertain to the question of democracy and civil society. More specifically, the discourse ethics of Habermas is contrasted with the power analytics and ethics of Foucault evaluating their usefulness for those interested in understanding, and bringing about, democratic social change.

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
- •
- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior

The complex nature of construction projects and the involvement of a large number of unpredictable correlated factors make them susceptible to disputes. Although a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exists, experts in the construction industry favor arbitration over litigation when legally binding dispute resolution mechanisms are concerned. Because initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner often severs the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator’s decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. Because arbitration has been extensively treated as a game, and because the proposed approach relies on the wealth maximization concept, which is in turn dependent on the sum of utility sources of a firm, modeling arbitration is best achieved as a game with disputing parties’ utility profiles that would have an agreement zone. A construction-specific utility framework for the disputing parties arbitrating before a single arbitrator is proposed based on the additive expected utility theory. The proposed additive utility framework preserves the industry practicality and, most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors that would address factual disputes related to claim entitlement and quantification. It is expected that such a framework could then be used to identify utility equilibrium points between the disputing parties, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.

- by Abdulla Galadari
- •
- Contracts, Game Theory, Decision Making, Contract Law

The flow of information in the age of social media
is bidirectional and interactive, hence creating
wealth of information. This information is
leveraged by the consumer when conducting
external search for his consumption decisions.
However, only few studies have explored the
influence of social media content on decision
making act during the consumption process, it
hence needs further investigation. In this study,
we try to fill the gap by using in depth interviews
with 21 participants, to investigate how product
information on social media influences
consumers’ propensity to consume.
The findings of the research propose the “IDEA”
model which explains that Social Media Content
can influence the decision making process of
other consumers (1) by providing Information
about products, (2) by instilling Desire among
consumers, (3) by sharing of Experience
knowledge and (4) by extinguishing Anxiety
around a product purchase decision. Our results
give the community managers some elements to
understand and manage their brand’s appearance
in different social media.

- by SDIWC Organization
- •
- Decision Making Processes, Social Media, Consumer Behavior, IDEA model

- by Bent Flyvbjerg
- •
- Critical Theory, Business, Entrepreneurship, Organizational Behavior