Deterrence Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Deterrence is in a crisis of scepticism; a situation that should be a cause of concern in NATO, for NATO governments and for European security in general. The intention of this paper is, first, to ask how it is that we have arrived at this point; how it is that the logic of deterrence has declined so markedly in strategic and popular culture. The goal then is to describe a way out of this crisis. This paper argues for a ‘First Reset Strategy’ – a co- ordinated effort to rediscover and then implement the fundamental goal of deterrence; the establishment of order, even in a hostile environment.

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- Strategy (Military Science), NATO, Deterrence

Influence and persuasion are gaining increased attention in warfare, but often social psychology approaches remain underused or neglected while this academic field has provided useful insights into this approach, especially as a non-kinetic capability. To effectively influence and persuade, we need to understand the adversary and the specific frame of reference of the relevant audience, which can be determined through Actor and Audience Analysis (AAA), a relatively new tool that has shown promising results. Based on the results of AAA, the communicator's characteristics and persuasion techniques must be tailored to the specific audience. This chapter will use delegitimisation of the adversary, specifically in the context of extremism and terrorism, as an example to demonstrate how influence and persuasion can be applied in a military context.

- by Christina van Kuijck
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- Military Science, Strategy (Military Science), Communication, Influence

In the preparatory meetings for the 2015 Review Conference (RevCon) of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the nuclear abolition or disarmament movement has urgently reiterated the demand that nuclear-weapon states (NWS) must live up to their Article VI commitments as defined by the 1995 and 2000 RevCons’ final reports. Increasingly, this demand is predicated on a humanitarian imperative to prevent the horrific effects of nuclear war or nuclear-weapon accident. The term humanitarian imperative is the most recent expression of a long-standing moral demand by the global antinuclear movement that the human and environmental suffering resulting from nuclear war or accident constitutes a supreme moral evil and, perhaps, a supreme moral emergency. The NWS have resolutely resisted this demand, in part because they fear the effects of instability and insecurity that might result from nuclear abolition. Indeed, the results from all of the NPT RevCons have demonstrated that the demand for nuclear abolition has failed to pressure the NPT NWS to act beyond strategically and politically prudent nuclear arms reductions. Moreover, some of the NPT NWS have initiated nuclear-weapons modernization projects, which indicate their sustained commitment to nuclear deterrence for the indefinite future. The current political contest between antinuclear global civil-society groups and the NPT NWS raises two focal questions. First, assuming nuclear disarmament is truly a humanitarian and moral imperative, what are the policy preconditions for effective implementation? The academic and policy literature offers a variety of answers to this question that is important to review. A second and more important question is to what degree do such policies ensnare the NPT NWS in unanticipated violations of international ethical imperatives? In particular, is it possible to undertake nuclear abolition in a morally responsible manner if at least one ethical imperative is genuinely violated in the very effort to realize it? This article begins with preliminary remarks on the latest efforts by some global civil-society groups to reframe nuclear abolition as a humanitarian imperative. It then argues that nuclear disarmament is not likely to happen merely because of the concerted expressions of moral demand by moral entrepreneurs and global civil-society groups. This is not to say that moral pressures from such groups are not necessary. On the contrary, the NPT NWS are not likely to reconsider their nuclear options without such pressures. Rather, the demand must be conjoined to a series of political interactions among rival NWS that resolve, transcend, or significantly mitigate their security, status, and trust dilemmas. In other words, the morally required end of nuclear abolition might tragically ensnare nuclear-armed rivals in a range of moral and political dilemmas that might involve significant instances of moral violation. If this paradoxical outcome is realized, then the paramount question for all involved is how to satisfy the moral imperative of nuclear abolition in ways that are not morally irresponsible.

- by Strategic Studies Quarterly and +1
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- Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Nonproliferation Treaties, Cold War

Economic sanctions have become the tool of choice for U.S. policymakers to influence international affairs. On issues ranging from nuclear nonproliferation to human rights, the United States typically imposes sanctions with the goal of inducing a government to change its behavior. Yet sanctions often have more potential to deter unwanted actions than to compel policy reversals, and the greatest impact of sanctions sometimes involves the signals they convey about likely future U.S. steps. Maximizing the overall effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure therefore requires concerted efforts by policymakers in the executive branch and Congress to make sanctions more effective instruments of deterrence and signaling. Doing this will also have positive knock-on effects, helping to limit the unintentional escalation of international competition and preserve the utility of sanctions as a vehicle for addressing security challenges and protecting universal norms. This report highlights several areas for action by U.S. policymakers.

- by Jordan Tama
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- Deterrence, U.S. Foreign Policy, Economic Sanctions, Signaling

The 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC on 01 Oct 19 was marked by the biggest ever parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. This brief analyses the event in the midst of seminal geopolitical developments involving China, inter alia the elevation of Xi Jinping as China’s President for life, China’s geopolitical rivalry and ‘trade war’ with the US, and the popular unrest in Hong Kong. From the Indian perspective, this needs to be contextualized with China’s earnest to reorder the global order, beginning with a China-led unipolar Asia; and specifically, for the Indian Navy, its increasing military-strategic foot-print in the Indian Ocean.

- by Gurpreet Singh Khurana
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- Deterrence, China, Hong Kong, India

This study presents an empirical analysis of domestic violence case resolution in North Carolina for the years 2004 to 2010. The key hypothesis is that penalties at the level set for domestic violence crimes reduce recidivism (re-arrest on domestic violence charges or conviction in 2 years following an index arrest). We use state court data for all domestic violence-related arrests. Decisions to commit an act of domestic violence are based on a Bayesian process of updating subjective beliefs. Individuals have prior beliefs about penalties for domestic violence based on actual practice in their areas. An individual's experience with an index arrest leads to belief updating. To address endogeneity of case outcomes, we use an instrumental variables strategy based on decisions of prosecutors and judges assigned to each index arrest in our sample. Contrary to our hypothesis, we find that penalities, at least as set at the current levels, do not deter future arrests and convictions.

- by Frank Sloan
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- Deterrence, Applied Economics, SSRN

Book Review of Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism. By George Perkovich and Toby Dalton.

Does an increase in police strength discourage an increase in crime levels? It would seem very likely so, despite the many platitudes common everywhere, even in the most serious literature on the subject. This research study, using Non-Linear Analysis on the Italian crime situation from 1985 to 2003, shows an almost non controvertible result. The police force really does seem to have a deterrence function on crime, particularly evident from the 90s on, where, as police strength increases, the number of crimes decrease. One of the most interesting aspects deriving from the non-linear model used, is the specific measurement of the number of crimes that might have been committed and that were not in virtue of the deterrent action of the Police Force. Up to now, such an acquisition seems to be lacking from other so called 'traditional' research, where such 'indirect' deterrence appears easily hypothesized, but impossible to determine. For this reason too, the adoption of a non-linear analysis logic shows its heuristic superiority able to shed light on certain aspects that in other analysis models would remain in the shadows.

- by Rosalia Condorelli
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- Sociology, Psychology, Statistics, Deterrence

Manipulation has always been a key way to get what someone wants in life, but can it get us everything? If done right, yes, it most certainly can. From what history has told us, the international system has been bombarded by coercion, manipulation, and persuasion for as long as conflict has existed. The concept of coercive diplomacy has been a topic of discussion for the past sixty years. Several authors have made the claim that coercive diplomacy is the greatest tactic to be used in a conflict, and that it is the method of choice for gaining certain capabilities and needs. Although it may seem that it has a defined definition, it is evident that there is much more to the idea than a single defined sentence. In this paper, I will explain how the idea of coercive diplomacy has become more than just a concept, but has evolved into a natural habit by world leaders to gain what they want, and how it has become so successful in conflict mediation. If explained correctly, it can be beneficial and a safe form to obtain peace even if it is a facetious overstatement to say that manipulation is the way to get what you want.

- by Sean Shtofman
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- Deterrence, Coercive Diplomacy
- by Shmuel Bar
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- Conflict, Deterrence, Russia, Conventional Deterrence

Theories of migration deterrence have long posited that border enforcement infrastructure pushes migration routes into more rugged and deadly terrain, driving an increase in migrant mortality. Applying geospatial analysis of landscape and human variables in one highly-trafficked corridor of the Arizona / Sonora border, we test whether the expansion of surveillance infrastructure has in fact shifted migrants’ routes toward areas that are more remote and difficult to traverse. We deploy a modeling methodology, typically used in archaeological and military science, to measure the energy expenditure of persons traversing the borderlands. Outcomes of this model are then compared to the changes in border infrastructure and records of fatality locations. Findings show that there is a significant correlation between the location of border surveillance technology, the routes taken by migrants, and the locations of recovered human remains in the southern Arizona desert. Placed in the context of ongoing efforts by the United States to geographically expand and concentrate border surveillance and enforcement infrastructure, we argue that this suggests a third “funnel effect” that has the outcome of maximizing the physiological toll imposed by the landscape on unauthorized migrants, long after migration routes have moved away from traditional urban crossing areas.

- by Geoff Boyce and +1
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- Spatial Analysis, Border Studies, Deterrence, Migration

understanding foreign policy decision making Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a decision making approach to foreign policy analysis. The benefits of such an approach are its ability to explain not only outcomes of decisions but also the processes that lead to decisions and the decision dynamics. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples of decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational actor model of decision making, levels of analysis, and types of decisions, the book covers alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases and errors, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. If we are to understand decision making, we need to understand how information processing and various biases affect decision making. Existing textbooks do not present such an explicit approach to foreign policy decision making, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.

- by Alex Mintz
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- History, Arbitration, Deterrence, Culture

Does the death penalty save lives? In recent years, a new round of research has been using annual time-series panel data from the 50 U.S. states for 25 or so years from the 1970s to the late 1990s that claims to find many lives saved through reductions in subsequent homicide rates after executions. This research, in turn, has produced a round of critiques, which concludes that these findings are not robust enough to model even small changes in specifications that yield dramatically different results. A principal reason for this sensitivity of the findings is that few state-years exist (about 1 percent of all state-years) in which six or more executions have occurred. To provide a different perspective,

- by Kenneth Land
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- Criminology, Philosophy, Applied Ethics, Deterrence

Evaluate whether Israeli kinetic response to a cyber attack was escalation.

- by Jacquelyn Schneider
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- International Relations, Deterrence, Cybersecurity

War spins the wheels of history. It changes societies, alters lives, and brings about new dimensions to inflict more brutality on human beings. This is what happened in the aftermath of World War II, when the advent of the nuclear weapons set about a chapter of sophisticated and lethal warfare. Conventional war between the great powers has since been antiquated. It only puts to display the apparent capabilities of the adversary so that deterrence remains intact. War has now become multilevel and multi-dimensional. In such a case hybrid warfare strategy comes to play-which falls under the third dimension of warfare and includes application of both conventional and non-conventional means. It becomes lethal because it brings together the use of technology and cognition to bring about destruction and disruption. On the other hand, the Strategic Interaction theory examines the asymmetric dimension of warfare which a weaker party undertakes in order to subdue or challenge its adversity. To put all this in context, India and Pakistan both being nuclear states do not directly confront each other by conventional means; rather they opt for the non-conventional means. The doctrinal change and rapid military modernization drive by India creates security dilemma for Pakistan. This paper studies that how India has employed hybrid warfare strategy against Pakistan, what are the vulnerabilities of Pakistan that India is exploiting and can exploit, how Pakistan can confront this type of warfare.

- by Dr Muhammad Nadeem Mirza
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- Southeast Asian Studies, Terrorism, War Studies, Deterrence

The severity, certainty and celerity (swiftness) of punishment are theorised to influence offending through deterrence. Yet celerity is only occasionally included in empirical studies of criminal activity and the three deterrence factors have rarely been analysed in one empirical model. We address this gap with an analysis using unique panel data of recorded theft, burglary and violence against the person for 41 Police Force Areas in England and Wales using variables that capture these three theorised factors of deterrence. Police detection reduces subsequent burglary and theft but not violence while severity appears to reduce burglary but not theft or violent crime. We find that variation in the celerity of sanction has a significant impact on theft offences but not on burglary or violence offences. Increased average prison sentences reduce burglary only. We account for these results in terms of data challenges and the likely different motivations underlying violent and acquisitive crime.

- by Nick Cowen
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- Criminology, Criminal Justice, Deterrence, Crime Science

The research presents an analysis of the process of attaining minimum credible defense through the assessment of the progress of the country’s naval modernization. The aim of the study is to assess the Philippine Navy (PN) Sail Plan 2030 under the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Modernization program, which in turn will be used as a component in analyzing the attainment of the minimum credible defense of the country. The assessment of naval military capability of the Philippines pertains to the actions and decisions taken by the government in naval force enhancement. Another agenda of the study is to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies undertaken by the government in attaining minimum credible defense. Vital to the study was the analysis of government agency structures, actions and decisions in enhancing the navy and the problems encountered along the process and the consequences due to the implemented decisions. The primary question which the research aims to answer is ‘how has the Philippines attempted to attain a minimum credible defense through the modernization of the Navy?’ The term enhancement was operationalized by the process of modernization of navy in attaining minimum credible defense. The other term explicated is minimum credible defense through the definitions argued by different scholars. The process by which the questions were answered was through the assessment of the PN Sail Plan 2030 which included the examination of military enhancement policies, national budgeting, government transactions, navy enhancement policies and foreign policies. Qualities of naval equipment and vehicles were studied in relation to the budgets allocated which determined any accomplishment by the Philippine government in attaining minimum credible defense. Findings show that through undertaking the PN Sail Plan 2030, the Philippines aimed at refocusing its empowerment of the Army into reorganizing the entire military forces, balancing the priority for the Army, Navy and Airforce. However, agencies faced organizational, hierarchical, political and material acquisition complications. The success of the government in modernizing its navy has merely substandard results of a recent policy of the current administration wherein problems regarding strict implementation of rules and regulations, hierarchy, bureaucratic effectiveness and efficiency, government strength and consistency of policies from one administration to the next. This led for the researchers to conclude that the attainment of a minimum credible defense has been hampered by the influence of the inefficient implementation of the AFP Modernization.

This report .ients a systems engineering and design capstone project undertaken by students in the Toal Ship Systems Engineering program at the Naval Postgraduate School. The project was performed under the direction of Prof. C. N. Calvano. (The officer students who comprised the design team were: LCDR Dwight Alexander, LCDR Dean Cottle, LT Kent Ketell and LT Jeff Riedel, all USN.

- by Kent Kettell
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- Systems Engineering, Deterrence, Numbers, Selection

Based on the author’s research of open source literature and a cooperative, two-year examination of ideas for deterring VEOs with the Israel Defense Forces and the U.S. military, this article will describe the growing and persistent threat of conflict with violent extremist organizations, review the U.S. President’s new vision for preventing terrorism, and examine key aspects of the Israeli approach to deterring and managing conflict with such VEOs. It concludes with some ideas that the United States might consider in a concept for deterring VEOs in support of a broader, whole-of government approach to preventing and managing conflict.

- by Mark Vinson
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- Deterrence, Conventional Deterrence, Deterring Terrorism

This paper investigates the managerial interpretation of the terms "error of judgement" and "white-collar crime" in relation to the evasion or negligence observed in administering occupational health and safety (OHS) provisions in the apparel manufacturing sector of Bangladesh. The research is qualitative in nature and follows an interpretivist paradigm. The questionnaire responses were collected from 20 mid-and top-level managers from 10 large apparel manufacturing factories located on the outskirts of Dhaka. The research reveals that all of the respondents have adequate knowledge about the relevant OHS provisions and safety protocols imposed on them by the local government and the global supply chain. They believe that the correct administration of the OHS provisions will reduce workplace accidents effectively. The research unfolds that the respondents interpret in different ways the terms "error of judgement" and "white-collar crime" in association with OHS negligence and evasion. Although empirical evidence shows that this type of negligence and evasion are considered as white-collar crime and punishable, most of the respondents in this research do not subscribe to this notion and alternatively believe that it is an "error of judgement" and therefore non-punishable.

- by Faisol Chowdhury
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- Engineering, Deterrence, Occupational Health & Safety, Rational Choice

Drug courts were developed to offer substance abuse treatment along with intensive supervision in an effort to better attend to the needs of these offenders, lessen commitments to prison, and reduce costs to the criminal justice system. Despite the reported success of drug courts, reductions in recidivism appear to be reserved for those who complete the program. Those who fail the program are remanded back to the court for traditional sentencing that may negate any participation benefit. Scholars have long considered the role the criminal justice system has played in the desistance of criminal activity. Much of the research has focused on the outcomes of postconviction sanctioning , finding little support for incarceration has as a deterrent agent. Moreover, the stigma of a criminal conviction, alone, has been shown to exacerbate criminal offending. We used a sample of 733 drug court participants to compare reoffending patterns between sentencing outcomes (dismissal, failed-probation, failed incarcerated). We used survival analysis to compare criminal abstinence in drug court participants across three potential program outcomes-case dismissal, probation, and imprisonment. The current findings demonstrate differences in recidivism between convicted and non-convicted past participants, but see mostly null effects when isolating the analysis between custodial and non-custodial sentences.

- by Robert Lytle
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- Deterrence, Survival Analysis, Recidivism, Incarceration

The Alliance took several major decisions at the Warsaw Summit in July 2016. Among those endorsed collectively by allies, there was one that was not significantly highlighted yet deserves additional attention. In the final communiqué, heads of state and government committed themselves to enhance resilience as the basis for credible deterrence, and as one of the arsenal of measures to effectively defeat hybrid threats. This paper by a member of our research team argues that resilience is an important concept that focuses on how quickly an individual, a community, or a national infrastructure is able to recover from a shock, adapting to future risks and threats. The challenge is to distinguish between civilian and defence institutions in a nontraditional way. When facing non-linear threats that target the whole-of-society, one’s response has to be broad and comprehensive. Of course, the individual nations must and will play a key role in adapting themselves. But NATO should encourage the development of good resilience policy through shared experiences.
The Eisenhower Papers are designed to serve as a forum for discussion within the professional military education community

- by Guillaume Lasconjarias
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- Resilience, NATO, Deterrence

Current calls to remove orbital debris come from nearly every corner, including governments, militaries, private corporations, and the scientific community. While debris poses a clear threat to space operations, and while this threat will continue to grow over time, too little energy has been spent considering the second-order effects of developing the ability to remove orbital debris. An unintended consequence of debris removal is that it would weaken one of the elements of deterrence that prevent self-interested states from engaging in more frequent kinetic antisatellite tests or taking hostile actions against orbital objects. This article examines the issue of orbital debris, connects the existence of debris to deterrence, and then offers some solutions to mitigate the weakening of deterrence in the event that debris removal becomes a reality.

- by Gregory D . Miller
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- Deterrence, Space Debris

El autor reflexiona acerca del tipo de antijuridicidad que requiere la función preventiva del Derecho de Daños o Responsabilidad civil en el Derecho Argentino, esto es, si la misma requiere que sea una antijuridicidad exclusivamente formal, o si también puede ser material. . Para ello delimita primeramente el concepto de antijuridicidad ante la incorporación expresa en el Código Civil y Comercial Argentino. Luego, aprovecha para conectar tal tema con la responsabilidad civil que debe caer sobre quienes, pudiendo hacerlo, no permitieron la suficiente conservación de los rastros de un delito para identificar a él o los responsables. Promueve para ello la utilización de herramientas brindadas por Análisis Económico del Derecho (comprensivo para el objeto de este trabajo, al Behavioral Law & Economics).

- by Martín Frúgoli
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- Deterrence, Behavioral Economics, Law of Torts, Derecho de Daños

The security of the East European NATO members in the Baltic region is an issue dependant on their geos-trategic location. The Kaliningrad Oblast is perceived as challenge in that context,because of its location and developing anti-access/area denial capabilities. Those could transform the three NATO members into "secu-rity island" by slowing or denying any reinforcement in case of direct "snap" attack. The Kaliningrad is isolated from Russia by democratic nations and it causes it to be slightly different compared to the mainland; this in turn could be exploited,however, itmay be considered a challenge in short term. Kaliningrad plays and will play a role of the one challenging NATO as a security organization. It is under constant development and troops located there are reinforced with capable combat systems. KEy WORDS Kaliningrad Oblast, anti-access/area denial (AA/AD), Russian Federation, NATO.

- by Zdzislaw Sliwa
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- International Security, Deterrence, Baltic Sea Region Studies, Baltic States

This project uses a representative U.S. population sample and Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM) to explore the deterrence of driving under the influence (DUI) and it’s moderation by the differential deterrability of problem and non-problem drinkers. As hypothesized, the results indicate that personal and vicarious experiences with punishment and punishment avoidance were significant predictors of punishment certainty and self-reported DUI. Significant heterogeneity in both the formulation of perceived certainty of punishment and the relationship between this perception and DUI also exists between problem and non-problem drinkers. Most notably, certainty of punishment was a more robust negative predictor of DUI offending for problem drinkers, and prior punishment appears to have little effect on perceptions of punishment certainty for problem drinkers.

- by Richard J Stringer
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- Deterrence, Drunk Driving, Deterrence Theory

This chapter, forthcoming, in Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity, Oxford University Press, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay, edss; provides a primer to existing debates on both the role of cyber operations in cross-domain deterrence and deterrence of cyber operations within cyberspace. It draws from existing literature on cyberspace operations and deterrence, theories of deterrence and signaling, and current policy debates in order to ask the following questions: what are the major limitations and concerns for cyberspace deterrence? What are the potential opportunities for successful deterrence? What is the current state of U.S. deterrence policies?

- by Jacquelyn Schneider
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- Deterrence, Cyber Security

Although cybersecurity as an unifi ed domain is still a recent fi eld of common policy for the EU, it is widely perceived as an area of growing importance for the global position and security of the Union. This development of EU's cybersecurity policy is taking place in the context of the broader efforts, namely Europe's ambition to increase its strategic autonomy. For the EU the main challenge remains how to achieve the coherent and holistic approach to cybersecurity, encompassing it's all dimensions – network and information security, cybercrime and cyber defence. New initiatives undertaken recently by Brussels try to address this problem. This article's aim is to contribute to the better understanding of the potential of the EU's cybersecurity policy to frame the future of European security and defence. The article describes the process of development of the cybersecurity policy of the EU in the XXI century. It provides a brief overview of the instruments and institutions of this policy. Then, the article discusses the EU's potential in cybersecurity fi eld. The fi nal part deals with the three dimensions of EU's strategic autonomy – political, operational and industrial and how they relate to cybersecurity.

- by Marek Szczygieł
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- Resilience, Deterrence, European Union, Cyberspace
- by Dalia Kaye
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- History, Leadership, Geopolitics, Deterrence

Polar Regional politics and international relations. He has previously taught in Canada, China, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, and has researched throughout the Arctic region, as well as on Antarctic politics and legal issues in Argentina, Australia and NZ. Lars Vargö is former Swedish Ambassador to Japan (2011-14) and South Korea (2006-11). He holds a Ph.D. in Japanese studies (history) from the University of Stockholm (1982). He graduated from Uppsala University 1972 with a major in sinology. In 1972-76 he was a repeat Mombusho scholar at Kyoto University. As a diplomat Vargö has returned to Japan four times, but has also served in Libya, Lithuania and the United States. 2001-2005 he served as Ambassador and Head of the International Department of the Swedish Parliament.

In public statements and archival documents U.S. officials have repeatedly made explicit their intention that the deployment of tactical infrastructure along the Mexico/United States border will contribute to the "funneling" of unauthorized migration toward increasingly remote and difficult routes of travel. By amplifying the suffering, risk and uncertainty to which migrants are exposed, it is intended that others in the future will be deterred from considering a similar journey. In this paper, we use the phrase "corral apparatus" to name how heterogeneous elements like walls, checkpoints and surveillance towers combine to form a common architecture of deterrence. We then undertake geospatial modeling of the relationship between this apparatus and the spatiotemporal distribution of human mortality across two major unauthorized migration corridors in southern Arizona. Our analysis identifies a meaningful relationship between the location of these infrastructures and patterns of mortality observed over time. Yet it bears emphasis that the United States government's ultimate objective is not to kill people, but to manipulate their behavior. To reflect on this point, we explore the relationship between deterrence theory and counterinsurgency as a particular framework of governance, one that emphasizes the targeting of coercive action against a population in order to immobilize an adversary. We discuss how an elaboration on this framework provides clear analytic purchase for understanding connections between those infrastructures of deterrence deployed in remote desert areas and a number of more recent carceral practices and enforcement initiatives undertaken by the United States along its border with Mexico.

- by Geoff Boyce
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- Architecture, Governmentality, Deterrence, Necropolitics

US public officials frequently argue that high temperatures are responsible for increasing mortality of undocumented border crossers (UBCs) in southern Arizona. In this article, we suggest that these kinds of assertions are not only empirically misleading, they also serve to naturalise UBC deaths in the region by helping to obscure their structural causes. Indeed, although heat exposure is a primary cause of death in the region, prior studies have also shown that migration patterns have shifted toward more remote and rugged terrain, characterised by higher elevations and greater shade cover. Using physiological modeling and a spatiotemporal forensic analysis, we assess whether the distribution of recovered human remains has shifted toward locations characterised by environments where the human body is more or less capable of regulating core temperature, and thus succumbing to heat stress. We find that the distribution of recovered UBC remains has consistently trended toward locations where the potential for heat stress is lower, rather than higher. This demonstrates that UBC mortality is not principally a function of ambient or regional temperature, but rather is a result of specific policy decisions that lead to cumulative stress and prolonged exposure due to factors like difficulty and distance of travel. To contextualise these findings, we discuss the evolution of the US Border Patrol's policy of Prevention Through Deterrence, and apply the concepts of structural and cultural violence to theorize its consistently deadly outcomes.

- by Geoff Boyce
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- Remote Sensing, Climate Change, Human Rights, Border Studies
- by Marco De Marchi
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- Geopolitics, Deterrence, Israel and Zionism, Strategy

Ο κατευνασμός αποτελεί μια απάντηση σε ένα στρατηγικό πρόβλημα. Ένα κράτος αποφασίζει να κάνει παραχωρήσεις προς ένα άλλο με σκοπό να
αντιμετωπίσει τη στρατηγική κατάσταση που έχει διαμορφωθεί. Διαχρονικά ο κατευνασμός έχει επικριθεί ως μια αποτυχημένη στρατηγική που οδηγεί νομοτελειακά στη σύγκρουση. Ωστόσο, τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες πολλοί μελετητές των διεθνών σχέσεων υποστηρίζουν ότι υπό συγκεκριμένες προϋποθέσεις η συγκεκριμένη στρατηγική δύναται να είναι αποτελεσματική. Το βασικό συμπέρασμα της παρούσας διατριβής είναι ότι για να είναι η στρατηγική κατευνασμού επιτυχημένη, δηλαδή να μην εκλειφθεί από το κατευναζόμενο κράτος ως ένδειξη αδυναμίας, πρέπει να συνδυάζεται με μια αξιόπιστη και αποφασιστική αποτρεπτική στάση η οποία θα πλαισιώνεται από κατάλληλες στρατηγικές επιλογές όπως η εξισορρόπηση και η ανάσχεση. Επιπλέον, και με δεδομένο ότι η Ελλάδα δεν έχει ακόμα διαμορφώσει θεσμικά την εθνική της στρατηγική, βασική διαπίστωση της διατριβής είναι ότι η στρατηγική της Ελλάδας έναντι της Τουρκίας, για το χρονικό διάστημα από το 1996 (κρίση των Ιμίων) έως και σήμερα, είναι μια στρατηγική κατευνασμού που δεν έχει αποδώσει, μιας και οι αναθεωρητικές διεκδικήσεις, σε συνδυασμό με την επιθετική παραβατικότητά της, εντείνονται με το πέρασμα του χρόνου.

- by Konstantinos Patsiaouras
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- International Relations, Political Theory, Political Science, Deterrence

Globally, disasters disrupt human lives and women tend to be more vulnerable during such events. This narrative review explores women’s experiences during disasters and identifies common factors increasing their vulnerability. After critical reading, 39 articles were included in this review. This paper underlines the themes in that literature to show that women across the world experience domestic violence, sexual assault, psychological and health problems as well as social and financial deprivation in disasters. The paper discusses the vulnerability of women particularly in Australia and New Zealand, through the lens of the global experience of women in disaster. This review highlights that, while there is consensus on the challenges faced by women in Australia, more research regarding interventions is required to reduce the negative effects of disasters on women. This review aims to inform emergency management practice in Australia and to direct further research to improve the outcomes for women and their safety.

- by tazrina chowdhury and +1
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- Community Resilience, Resilience, Deterrence, Resiliency

Kriminoloji alanında gerçeklestirilen bilimsel çalışmalar, suç problemi karşısında Turkiye ve diğer ulkelerde uygulanan, cezaların etkinligini arttırarak caydırıcılık sağlama yaklaşımının beklenen etkiyi gostermesinin oldukça zor olacağını işaret etmektedir. Bunun en onemli nedeni, bu tur yaklaşımların temelini oluşturan düşünsel yapının pek çok açıdan sınırlı oluşudur. Bu sınırlılık; suçun rasyonel bir davranışolarak görülmesi, zaman/mekan açısından yer değiştirebilmesi ve kişilere/durumlara göre farklılık göstermesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Sınırlılıkları nedeniyle suç karşısında beklenen caydırıcı etkiyi doğurması oldukça zor görünen bu tür politikalar yerine etkinliği bilimsel olarak ortaya konulmuş sosyal temelli politikalara yönelmek daha iyi sonuçlar doğuracaktır.

- by Osman Dolu
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- Deterrence, Rational Choice, Crime Prevention

As a new threat of war looms, Western leaders need a new security policy position to induce Moscow to de-escalate. This should entail a three-part policy shift: reward Ukraine, control her deterrence posture, and credibly threaten Moscow... more

Balance of power as the goal of realist geopolitics is no longer necessary in the post Cold War world. Threats are asymmetric and so the need now is to challenge the resolve of transnational enemies to oppose us. Israel is very good at... more

- by Scott Gerschwer
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- Terrorism, Geopolitics, Deterrence, Balance of Power
- by Marius Malarius
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- Strategy (Military Science), Deterrence, Security Studies, Russia

Strategic Studies Quarterly (SSQ) is the strategic journal of the United States Air Force, fostering intellectual enrichment for national and international security professionals. SSQ provides a forum for critically examining, informing, and debating national and international security matters. Contributions to SSQ will explore strategic issues of current and continuing interest to the US Air Force, the larger defense community,
and our international partners.

- by Strategic Studies Quarterly and +1
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- Air Force Studies, Foreign Policy Analysis, Indian studies, Deterrence

Over the last years, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) recognized nuclear powers (P5) have substantially invested in modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Even considering the need for replacement of some of the nuclear platforms, analysis demonstrates that the development and deployment of new military systems – like the missile shield or hypersonic systems – has created a strategic domino effect on other nuclear powers, namely Russia and China. This article intends not only to describe some of the nuclear modernizations programs currently being implemented by the P5 but also the strategic
motivations behind the latter.

In this paper, I do not discuss the contemporary problems of penal law nor advocate for punishment reform, but rather, I engage with the theory of legal punishment as introduced by Jeremy Bentham and Immanuel Kant, each representing the fundamental position of two famous streams of ethics, utilitarianism and deontology. Bentham's core concern is "the greatest happiness of the greatest number" of people, with each individual of equal worth, while Kant's is the categorical imperative, where one acts according to what one would accept as a universal law. What I set to do is a comparative analysis on Bentham and Kant's theories relative to key aspects of punishment: (i) the understanding of punishment in relation to the conception of the state; (ii) which effect of a crime is privileged, and how persons involved are perceived; and (iii) the proportionality of punishment. In my conclusion, I bridge Bentham and Kant's theories to suggest an enlightened and progressive stance on punishment, which also seems to reflect contemporary understandings on punishment.

- by Anson Ching
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- Deterrence, Utilitarianism, Immanuel Kant, Capital Punishment

Military muscle flexing, deterrence policies and sanctions against Russia mask much bigger existential problems.

- by Mark Beeson
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- International Relations, Deterrence, Global Warming, Russian-Ukrainian Relations