Military Spending Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

AN EVALUATION OF GREECE'S MILITARY SPENDING DURING ECONOMIC CRISIS PERIOD ABSTRACT The Peace Operation to Cyprus conducted by Turkey in 1974 signed the return of Greece to democratic regime from the military governance known as... more

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- NATO, Turkey, Military Spending, Greek Foreign Policy
- by Carl Conetta
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- Military Spending, Pentagon, American Military Policy, Defense and Peace Economics

The article examines how new planning concepts and methods advanced by the RAND Corporation and adopted by the Pentagon during the 1990s served to inflate defense requirements. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the... more

Questions regarding the economic consequences of US grand strategy have gained new salience. This paper provides an empirical test of the relationship between US military expenditures and public debt and clarifies the real constraints the US faces issuing debt. Neither the results from the statistical analysis nor the economic theory of sovereign debt support the retrenchment position regarding the impact of military spending on public debt (1973–2015). Tax cuts are the most significant determinant of debt not military spending, social benefits or interest payments. Evaluating new hypotheses about alternative mechanisms through which military spending may damage the economy should remain a priority.

- by Carla Norrlof and +1
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- International Relations, International Security, International Political Economy, Military Spending

Comparing current Russian military power to that of a decade ago, Russia has clearly made substantial progress in transforming its military into an efficient fighting force. Observing this achievement, it is relevant to ask: What military capability will Russia possess in another ten years?
This report provides a forecast of Russian military capability towards 2029. It is based on analyses of the Armed Forces and their fighting power, and of political and economic factors that affect the development of military capability. The study’s primary focus is on regular warfare capabilities.
The report finds that Russia’s authoritarian domestic policy and anti-Western foreign policy will continue. Recognition as a great power and establishing a sphere of interest in its neighbourhood will remain main objectives. The impressive pace of improvement of the Armed Forces in the past decade is probably not sustainable. Instead, the next ten years will consolidate previous achievements, notably the ability to launch a regional war. Strategic deterrence, primarily with nuclear forces, will remain the foremost priority. Towards 2029, Russia may only significantly increase its military capability further by sustained political support for determined policy implementation.

Topics include the changing character of war, destructive capabilities of weapons, nuclear weapons, human consequences of war, soldiers after was, children and war, child soldiers, civilian casualties (collateral and targeted), Guatemala, Columbia, Cambodia, people displaced by war, land mines, material and human costs of preparedness, and US responsibility.

- by Marc Pilisuk
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- War Studies, Nuclear Weapons, Military Spending, Child Soldiers
- by Stefano Adrianopoli
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- Geopolitics, NATO, Military Spending, Germany
- by Johanna von Grafenstein
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- Caribbean Studies, Military Spending, Siglo XVIII, Caribe

This book presents a comprehensive view of the state of the Russian economy under President Putin. It considers the extent of Russia’s integration in the world economy, where Russia’s exports of oil and gas are a key factor, discusses Russia’s internal challenges, including changing demographics, declining government revenue, the need to counter over-reliance on the oil and gas sector and the consequences of high military spending, and assesses the prospects for economic reform, highlighting especially the power struggles between different vested interests. Overall, the book provides a basis for understanding what has been going on in the Russian economy under President Putin and what the future may look like given the external environment, internal challenges and reform processes.

- by Susanne Oxenstierna
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- Demography, Military Spending, Russia, Russian Economy

This paper examines U.S. military spending from 2000-2015 in an attempt to determine whether cuts in military spending have decimated the U.S. military, as some political leaders suggest, and whether a large increase in military spending... more

- by Robert McGee
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- Economics, Public Economics, Public Administration, Political Economy

With world military expenditure rising rapidly since 2000, one of the possible drivers that has drawn less attention has been the role of natural resource revenues, especially oil. Countries as diverse as Angola, Azerbaijan, Chad, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and Timor-Leste have seen huge rises in military expenditure on the back of rapidly increasing oil revenues. Natural resource extraction can generate conflict and create an imperative to protect resource infrastructure from internal or external threats. At the same time it provides a ready source of government revenue, and in particular foreign currency. The lack of transparency often associated with such revenues may facilitate off-budget spending or large, and possibly corrupt, arms purchases. Up to now, most econometric research has not considered the role of resource revenues as a determinant of military expenditure. We provide a preliminary analysis for the case of Algeria, estimating military expenditure as a function of oi...

This essay analyses the nexus between military expenditure and foreign aid in Egypt, while also examining the importance of governmental institutions in light of this relationship. The institutional variable is captured and interpreted partially through the Vanhanen Index of democracy. By using a time-series dataset between the years 1966 – 2015 and applying as an empirical method an ordinary least square (OLS) regression, the obtained results imply military expenditure and foreign aid in Egypt are intertwined, yet the importance of governmental institutions presents only in some models a significant statistical correlation. However this simplistic approach to the research question for a one-country case study could stand as basis for further and more in-depth analysis on this current and relevant topic.

- by Andreea Pop
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- Development Economics, Political Economy, Statistics, Development Studies

Due to the increasing expenditures in the defence sector on the world wide scale there might be a need for states to reassess the impact of national defence industries on national economies, security, defence and foreign politics. Existing different theoretical approaches could be used to develop a research design for that particular case. This article reconsiders the importance of political economy theories in this context and investigates the methodical side of their practical applicability and finally revisits the results of similar analysis. Research reveals a phenomenal linkage of new political economy approaches to "grand" theories, concludes that proper methodology does not guaranty the reliability of research results, outlines the fact that numerous studies that focused on defining the impact of the military spending and developing own defence industry to local and state economies, do not provide a clear evidence that military spending is likely to have a negative economic effect on the state.

- by Donatas Palavenis
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- Military Spending, Defence, Defence and Security, DEFENCE ECONOMICS
- by Yumi A Hoshino
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- Military Spending, Inflation, Defense
- by Muhammad Nauman Shabbir
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- International Relations, Economic Growth, Pakistan, Military Spending

Do considerations that cause military spending increases symmetrically cause spending cuts? Models of military spending that estimate a single effect for major independent variables implicitly assume that this is the case. In reality, the mechanisms that cause military spending increases do not always imply symmetrical cuts, and vice versa. This article examines two considerations widely held to influence military spending: economic growth and international threats. In both cases, there are reasons to suspect asymmetric effects on military spending. While recessions always create pressure for cuts in military spending, which frequently constitutes a substantial share of national budgets, economic growth does not necessarily imply a symmetric need for spending increases. Similarly, while national security policymakers, including the military, are likely to call for spending increases when international threats worsen, they have self-interested reasons to minimize the budgetary implications of declining threats. A cross-national analysis of military spending since World War II shows that economic decline has a larger impact on the military spending than economic growth. In regards to international threat, the findings are more complex. There is no evidence that international threat is related to changes in military spending in the short run, and little evidence of a long-run relationship. The threat variables appear to account for cross-sectional variation in military spending but not variation within each state over time. These results suggest military budgets require more time to recover from economic decline than benefit from economic growth as recessions can thus produce long deviations from the equilibrium relationship between the size of the economy and the military budget. This finding in military spending suggests consequences for our understanding the balance of power and power transitions.

Prepared for “Economics and Security: Resourcing National Priorities,” a workshop sponsored by William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, 19–21 May 2010. Full conference proceedings... more

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between military spending and economic growth in a large panel of advanced and developing countries over the period 1984–2014, with a particular focus on whether the growth impact of military expenditures varies with the type and level of security threats. Although there is extensive literature on the military-growth nexus, there is still no consensus on the nature and magnitude of this relationship. Using an expansive dataset and controlling for country-specific effects and potential endogeneity, we revisit this issue and reach two firm conclusions. First, military spending has no statistically significant direct (positive) effect on growth. Second, the nature and level of security threats do not alter the relationship between military spending and growth. Overall, the empirical results documented in the study suggest that military spending is simply not important or large enough in most countries to have a meaningful impact on growth.

- by Serhan Cevik
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- Economics, Development Economics, Political Economy, Economic Growth
- by Fareed Khan
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- Military Spending, New World Order, Four Freedoms, Post World War II

PDA Briefing Report #18, 05 September 2006. A net assessment of America’s post-911 security policy shows it to be “pyrrhic” in character: although progress has been made in disrupting Al Qaeda, the broader effect has been to increase the... more

During the Cold War, anti-Communism and militarism among numerous religious com-mitted Americans seemed to be fostered by the perceived threat of the “godless” Marxist ideology (Judis 2005). With the 9/11 terror attacks and the War on Terror, Islamic terrorism may as well serve as similar competing value system replacing godless Communism (Guth 2009a). In this vein, Huntington (1996) famously described modern international relations as “clash of civilisations” rooted in religious conflicts. This interpretation is especially striking given that Americans throughout the country’s history consistently approached international relations with some kind of religious men-tality. A prominent example is the Bush administration’s framing of the Iraq War in decid-edly religious phrases (Roof 2009). Bush’s justification and presentation of the Iraq War stressed its religious relevance by referring to several Protestant, often especially Evan-gelical Protestant, beliefs. And indeed, research inspired by Bush’s rhetoric found that religion had an independent and strong effect on approval of his Middle East and anti-terror policy (see, for instance, Smidt 2005). However, these studies rely on data collected before public support for the Iraq War be-gan to drop significantly and cannot account for post-Iraq or post-Bush public opinion. Moreover, given that attitudes about Bush’s Middle East policy are highly unique and do not represent the way foreign policy attitudes are formed in general, findings concerning this specific policy field may not be indicative for more general militant attitudes. If, how-ever, the perceived threat of militant Islam has a similar impact on Americans as Com-munism during the Cold War, religion may very well have a vital role for general militant orientations in contemporary America. Against this background, this paper analyses the religious basis of American preferences for governmental spending on the military and national defence. [WRITTEN IN 2016]

- by Fabian Lauterbach
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- Religion, Political Sociology, Public Opinion, Religion and Politics

Contrary to a contemporary mythology which claims that defense downsizing will raise unemployment, empirical evidence indicates that "compensated" decreases in defense spending should lower aggregate unemploy¬ment. Traditional budgetary analysis has obscured the causes and conse¬quences of trade-offs by using unsuitable measurements and methods. Relation¬ships between trade-offs, unemployment, and partisan politics are better articulated by using direct measurements of budgetary trade-offs than by applying conventional methods of analysis. More realistic measure¬ment of partisan influences also eliminates much of the confusion surrounding these issues, confirming the obvious connection between partisan politics and budgetary choices. When discretionary spending shifts from defense to domestic spending in peacetime, aggregate unemployment decreases, but during war this relationship reverses. During peacetime, shifts in federal spending depend on partisan unity. Thus, budgetary trade-offs are not an illusion, but a tangible consequence of partisan political competition.

- by Joe Adams
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- Unemployment, Military Spending, Defense Spending

This paper deals with the causal relation between military spending and economic growth of a state. There are three schools of thought on this issue: military spending promotes economic growth; it retards economic growth; and there exists no causal relations between the two. Pakistan's military spending – being indispensable because of the existing threat perception – has been considered as a burden on the national economy. This paper argues that military spending as part of the budgetary expenditure does not all go in the drain. Its role in the economic development of Pakistan – if less in economic growth – cannot be neglected. However, their indirect impact on the economic growth of Pakistan has been substantial. Technological advancement, provision of security, military's social uplift projects which positively affect the 'health' of the economy, military's ancillary institutions like Fauji Foundation, Bahria Foundation, Shaheen Foundation, Army Welfare Trust (AWT) are performing their role directly in the economic growth of the state. Importantly, Arms trade internationally has been contributing trillions of dollars in various states economies. This paper suggests that defence industrial capacity and efficiency can be improved in order to increase the output, which in turn, would help the state's economy by earning millions of dollars through arms sale at the international arena and by ensuring the continued supply of necessary equipment to its armed forces, especially in the times of crises – which in turn, may not only ensure the security of the Pakistan, but also reducing the political leverage being held by great powers on Pakistan. To achieve the target, as a first step, efficient planning be done so as to make the defence industry self-sufficient, and in the long-run to strengthen it to support the overall military spending.

- by Dr Muhammad Nadeem Mirza
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- International Relations, Economic Growth, Pakistan, Military Spending

- by Zafar Nawaz Jaspal and +1
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- Economics, International Relations, Economic Growth, Pakistan
- by Carl Conetta
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- Strategic Studies, Security Studies, Critical Security Studies, Military Spending

PDA Briefing Memo 45, 18 January 2010. The United States faces Reagan-level deficit spending and greatly increased debt. Can the president’s program of high defense spending and increased non-defense spending survive? In 11 tables and charts, this explores the fiscal and historical background to the present dilemma, charting the change in defense spending over seven decades.

The rise in US defense spending between 1998 and 2010 has no precedent in all the years since the Korean war. It most readily compares with two earlier, but lesser spending surges: the 1958-1968 surge of 43% and the 1975-1985 surge of... more

PDA Briefing Memo #43, 05 February 2008. The United States is entering a period of policy transition, but there is a dearth of new thinking regarding security policy. The debate remains paralyzed by 9/11 and mesmerized by military... more

Argues for a new balance among the various instruments of national power reflecting today’s strategic conditions. Taking a realistic view of security needs, the report advocates a military 20% smaller than today’s. It advances a “discriminate defense” strategy that would focus the military on cost-effective missions and save $550 billion more than official plans over the next decade. Main report includes 9 tables. Appendix has 18 additional tables and charts addressing personnel, force structure, and budgets.

"April 13th, 2016 California’s State University professors, lecturers, counselors, coaches, and librarians, united through the California Faculty Association, are threatening to strike for a 5% raise. In his article, “Report recommends that Cal State faculty receive 5% pay increase,” Jason Song of the LA Times quotes conflict resolution specialist Bonnie Prouty Castrey as saying, “educators’ pay had stagnated during the recession and ‘the faculty are still suffering from structural salary issues as well as the lack of substantial salary increases.’” While Marx and Engels would use this article about the strike to further solidify their critique of capitalism because it exemplifies continuous and progressive alienation of workers from their labor power, Gramsci would examine the role of the professors and how their demands and actions are inconsistent with their supposed level of consciousness as intellectuals."

- by Jen McClellan and +1
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- Critical Theory, Public Budgeting, Subversion, Marxist theory
- by Diego Lopes
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- Military Spending, Transparency, South America, Military Expenditure
- by Sam Perlo-Freeman
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- Military Spending, External Debt

As originally conceived the Quadrennial Defense Review was meant to help ensure the internal consistency of midand longer-term US defense planning. By “internal consistency” I here mean a concordance of strategy, assets, and budgets. As critics often put it in the past: the point is to show how the force fits the strategy and the budget fits the force. The exercise is supposed to “connect” our military strategy with our force development plans and, in turn, connect these with current and future budgets. In this regard, the 2006 QDR is long on assertion and short on quantification “short” as in utterly lacking.

- by Carl Conetta
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- Engineering, Strategic Studies, Security Studies, Critical Security Studies

This briefing memo addresses the US Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), an instrument for the internal consistency of US defense planning. The essay focuses on the match between future missions of the US armed forces and their available assets. The author summarizes the key missions outlined in the QDR and the major force enhancements it proposes. The briefing memo argues that the war in Iraq and other post-11 September operations significantly strained the US armed forces. Regarding the situation in Iraq, the memo concludes that the US forces do not assemble a presence that is able to stabilize the country.

- by Carl Conetta
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- Strategic Studies, Security Studies, Critical Security Studies, Military Spending

The sharp rise in the Pentagon’s base budget between 1998 and 2011 (46% in real terms) is substantially due to strategic choice, not security requirements. It reflects a refusal to set priorities as well as a move away from the traditional goals of military deterrence, containment, and defense to more ambitious ends: threat prevention, command of the commons, and the transformation of the global security environment. The geographic scope of routine US military activity also has expanded. Report includes two tables showing base budget growth in various categories and per person between 1986 and 2011

Historically, calls for reducing military expenditures were present in all expressions of pacifist thought. Under the peace dividends concept, disarmament has had a long history of debates and proposals, particularly in the pacifist economic spheres, which focused on the idea of opportunity cost of military spending and how reducing defense budgets can be a great opportunity to get resources to allocate to social policies. In this paper we review the status of the issue of peace dividends, explaining on the one hand how the concept that arose in the context of the Cold War turned out to be a missed opportunity for peace; and on the other hand detailing how the idea of reducing military spending is a central idea in pacifisms.

This paper aims the examination of the relationship between GDP and military expenses in Serbia. We initially review the empirical and theoretical contradictions continuing with our test VAR, unit root, grander causality tests, conintegration to test such relationship between GDP and military spending. Results present a weak relationship in Serbia.

- by Valdrin Dervishaj
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- Econometrics, Political Economy, Military Spending, GDP estimation