Space Weather Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

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- Mathematics, Physics, Social Work, Space Weather

The Satellite Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System (SAAPS) is a software containing a database of space weather data and satellite anomaly data, tools for plotting and analysis, and models for the prediction of anomalies. The system... more

- by Peter Wintoft and +1
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- Space Weather

A possible test for different models explaining the seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity is the diurnal variation. We computed diurnal variations both in the occurrence of large AE (auroral electrojet) indices and in the AO index. (AO is the auroral electrojet index that provides a measure of the equivalent zonal current.) Both methods show a similar diurnal variation in geomagnetic activity with a deep minimum around (37) UT (universal time) in winter and a shallower minimum near 59 UT in equinoctial months. The observed UT variation is consistent with the results of other scientists, but it is different from that expected from the RussellMcPherron mechanism proposed to explain the seasonal variation. It is suggested that the possible cause for the diurnal and seasonal variations may be variations in nightside ionospheric conductivity. Recent experimental results show an important role for ionospheric conductivity in particle acceleration and geomagnetic disturbance genera...

- by A. M. Hamza
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- Seasonality, Space Weather, Mathematical Sciences, Physical sciences
- by R. Filjar and +1
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- Decomposition, Navigation, Ionosphere, Space Weather

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of ~455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being ~155–605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach ~755 A (confidence interval range 155–910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of ~460–1,815 A (100 year return) and ~460–2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of ~100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

- by Tim Divett
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- Geomagnetism, Space Weather, Geomagnetically induced Currents
- by Jeffrey J. Love
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- Space Weather
- by Jarmila Siegelova and +1
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- Atmospheric Science, Heart rate variability, Space Weather, Solar Activity

Advances in space weather science and small satellite (SmallSat) technology have proceeded in parallel over the past two decades, but better communication and coordination is needed among the respective worldwide communities contributing to this rapid progress. We identify six areas where improved international coordination is especially desirable, including: (1) orbital debris mitigation; (2) spectrum management; (3) export control regulations; (4) access to timely and low-cost launch opportunities; (5) inclusive data policies; and (6) education. We argue the need for internationally coordinated policies and programs to promote the use of SmallSats for space weather research and forecasting while realizing maximum scientific and technical advances through the integration of these two increasingly important endeavors.

- by Bhavya Lal
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- Business, Space Weather
- by Umran Inan and +2
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- Mechanical Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Remote Sensing, Science Education

En 1859 el clima espacial hizo estragos en la Tierra. ¿Qué pasaría si vuelve a ocurrir?

- by J. Americo Gonzalez-Esparza
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- Space Weather, Solar Flares, Clima Espacial
- by Suqin Wu
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- Space Weather
- by Pierre Rochus
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- Space Weather, Real Time, Spatial resolution

Severe space storms pose significant risk to critical infrastructures. They are typically classified as high consequence, low probability events, yet the record over the last several hundred years indicates we may be overdue for a significant event. How does the paradigm of complex adaptive systems and wicked problems help policy makers and industry address cost/benefit and risk management responsibilities to multiple stakeholders to prepare for cross-border events in the near future?

- by Nancy K . Hayden
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- Complex Systems Science, Risk Management, Complex Networks, Wicked Problems

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are believed to be effective in producing shocks in the solar corona and the interplanetary space. One of the important signatures of shocks and shock acceleration are Type II solar radio bursts that drift with the shock speed and produce bands of fundamental and higher harmonic plasma radio emission. An intriguing aspect of Type II radio bursts is the occasional split of a harmonic band into thinner lanes, known as band-splitting. Here, we report a detailed imaging and spectroscopic observation of a CME-driven shock producing band-splitting in a Type II burst. Using the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR), we examine the spatial and temporal relation of the Type II burst to the associated CME event, use source imaging to calculate the apparent coronal density, and demonstrate how source imaging can be used to estimate projection effects. We consider two widely accepted band-splitting models that make opposing predictions regarding the locations of the true emission sources with respect to the shock front. Our observations suggest that the locations of the upper and lower sub-band sources are spatially separated by ∼ 0.2 ± 0.05 R. However, we quantitatively show, for the first time, that such separation is consistent with radio-wave scattering of plasma radio emission from a single region, implying that the split-band Type II sources could originate from nearly co-spatial locations. Considering the effects of scattering, the observations provide supporting evidence for the model that interprets the band-splitting as emission originating in the upstream and downstream regions of the shock front, two virtually co-spatial areas.

- by Eduard Kontar and +1
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- Radio Astronomy, Space Plasma Physics, Space Physics, Astrophysics

Badai geomagnet terjadi akibat aktivitas abnormal di matahari yang mempengaruhi intensitas angin matahari. Badai ini ditandai dengan perubahan nilai variasi harian medan magnet bumi yang besar, cepat dan tidak beraturan. Efek badai geomagnet di sekitar bumi dapat berdampak pada aktivitas manusia di luar angkasa dan di permukaan bumi. Salah satu kejadian badai geomagnet yang pernah tercatat adalah pada tanggal 13 Oktober 2016. Dalam penentuan tingkat gangguan geomagnet digunakan indeks geomagnet. Indeks geomagnet merupakan ukuran sederhana yang menggambarkan aktivitas magnetis yang berasal dari ionosfer dan magnetosfer bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis indeks geomagnet ketika terjadi badai tanggal 13 Oktober 2016. Indeks geomagnet yang dianalisis antara lain indeks K, indeks A dan indeks Dst khususnya di wilayah Sumatera. Data yang digunakan adalah data variasi harian komponen H medan magnet bumi dari rekaman sensor magnetometer BMKG di Stasiun Gunungsitoli, Tuntungan, Sicincin, Liwa dan Tangerang. Berdasarkan hasil analisis dapat diidentifikasi jika badai geomagnet pada tanggal 13 Oktober 2016 tersebut termasuk kriteria badai geomagnet kuat jika ditinjau dari nilai Dst indeks yang menyentuh angka dibawah-100 nT.

- by M. Fakhrul Islam Masruri
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- Geophysics, Physics, Geomagnetism, Space Weather
- by Elchin Babayev
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- Mechanical Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Space, Space Weather

Sudden Storm Commencements (SSCs) are a geomagnetic storm phenomenon observable in magnetometer data as a "spike" near the onset of a storm. They are characterised by a sudden, near-simultaneous global rapid increase in the rate of change (dB/dt) of the Earth's magnetic field in one or more axial components. In this research, the storm profiles of 19 internationally recognised SSCs over a 6-year period are matched to the available regional recordings of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) at one or more substations in the South African power utility network. Rise times, amplitudes and dB/dt were used to classify storm events and induced currents. These data sets are also contrasted against the global geomagnetic storm indicator, SYM-H as a comparative baseline for waveforms. Waveform morphology analysis indicates a clear evidence of a regional correlation between SSCs and GICs.

- by Dyah Rahayu Martiningrum
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- Space Weather

Forest fire causes serious damage to the Flora and fauna of a country. This is one of major environmental concern. Early prediction of fires saves large number of Flora and fauna and prevents the ecosystem. By predicting the area burnt we can also classify whether the fire into small or big. The key motivation for this prediction is to help fire management team in proper resource allocation and to help the fire-fighters in a best possible way. The meteorological conditions of the forest are the key factors of the forest fire. These climatic data can be obtained using the local sensors which are incorporated in the nearest meteorological stations. This research proposes various Machine learning approaches such as Naïve Bias, Decision Trees, SVR, Random forest, Stochastic Gradient Descent and Bagging for predicting the amount of land burnt in the forest. Here the predictive model is build using the outbreaks of fire caused in the northeast region of Portugal.

- by Yvelice Castillo
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- Magnetosphere, Space Weather, Sun Earth Connection
- by francis cucinotta
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- Genetics, Monte Carlo, Cosmic Rays, Modern physics

December 2020 was characterized by air temperatures higher than the norm with +3.1°C,
the deviations of which nationwide were more pronounced in the southern part of Albania. Rainfall in
December marked a positive deviation of 112.7% of the rate. The month of December marked the end of
the vegetation period for the field of agriculture, which is also reflected in the NDVI indicators, that provide
more detailed information for farmers and readers interested in this field. This bulletin contains information
on the space weather and synoptic situation of December as well as on the energy potential offered by
the solar radiation needed in the evaluation of renewable energies. Also, assessments on urban climate,
climate change, extreme weather and an evaluation on the meteorological situation for the coming months
is part of the scientific analysis and presentation in this bulletin. A scientific article: "Assessment of Energy
demand for Heating and Cooling, according to degree days based on the UKMO method", concludes the
bulletin with some scientific knowledge on artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of meteorology

- by Gazmir Çela and +2
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- Geography, Climate Change, Atmospheric Science, Climatology

During the studied period 1996-2007 I noticed that, the rising and oscillations of the sea level, global temperature, carbon dioxide concentration, ice mass of Antarctica, and melting of Greenland ice are highly correlated with Earth's orbital perturbations. Monthly variations of those parameters have two periodicities. Stronger one called “long-periodic cycle”, it is strongly related to solar activity. It appears as a rising trend during my studied period. Observation data of iceberg mass and its melting, global sea level, and concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is recent and does not cover a millennium or Wolf-Gleissberg solar cycle. So, it does not indicate a global warming. Second cycle is called “short-periodic cycle”. it is a weaker force but still stronger than human activities forcing. It appears as oscillations around the rising trend. The short periodic cycle of all mentioned parameters is found correlated to Earth's orbital perturbations which are indicating a global warming and global warming is a natural phenomenon. Global warming is strongly corelated to Sun, Earth’s orbit, and our space. I conclude that the productivity of natural greenhouse gases is greater than that produced by human activity. The current proposed global warming is not a result of human activities, rather just temporary epoch and natural phenomena. The Earth's orbital perturbations are in an excellent positive coherence with the Greenland ice mass but in a negative coherence with the Antarctic ice mass. My results are in good agreement with Yousef (2000) and Akasofu (2010). I propose that the natural source of rising in concentration of greenhouse gases can be attributed to two causes: 1) Comets and asteroids, which are still carrying water molecules and some of greenhouse gas’ molecules to the Earth’s atmosphere; 2) Solar wind, which is composed greenhouse gases in ionization state. It may react and recombined though upper atmosphere before arriving to atmospheric lower levels at poles by unknown process. The global temperature is found to be correlated to Earth’s orbital perturbation too. This is because the declination angle is varying through the year. Output solar energy that arrives to the Earth depends on Sun-Earth distance too.

- by Ramy Mawad
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- Carbon Dioxide, Solar Physics, Ice Mass Change, Global Warming
- by charles cockell
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- Dust (Astronomy & Astrophysics), Astronomy, Space Weather, Origin of Life
- by A. Belehaki
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- Forecasting, Performance, Ionosphere, Space Weather
- by bojan vrsnak and +1
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- Solar Physics, Coronal Mass Ejection, Space Weather, Solar Activity

Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near-and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

The present work is the first of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. It comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960’s, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this review is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues.

- by Clezio De Nardin and +1
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- Space Weather

Abstract: In order to determine the influence of mankind on climate change it is important to understand the natural causes of climate variability. A natural effect that has been hard to understand physically is an apparent link between... more

- by Peter Wintoft and +1
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- Space Weather, Solar Activity
- by Alexei Dmitriev
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- Atmospheric Science, Ionosphere, Space Weather, Time Delay

A catastrophic outage of the U.S. electric grid could seriously jeopardize national security; threaten critical, life-sustaining services and, consequently, the health of millions of people; and cost trillions of dollars in lost revenue. This study identifies proactive, cost-effective solutions that could be implemented promptly to protect utility communication and control systems from solar storms and electromagnetic pulses caused by nuclear detonations in the atmosphere. It also identifies possible sources of federal grants and methods of cost recovery to encourage utilities to invest in grid resiliency. Protecting electric grid communications and its power sources could facilitate rapid recovery and prevent extended outages caused by natural or deliberate EMP events.

- by Brent Ledvina
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- Mechanical Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Space, GPS
- by Gopi Seemala
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- Geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, Ionosphere, ANN

Equatorial spread F (ESF) was discovered almost a century ago using the first radio wave instrument designed to study the upper atmosphere: the ionosonde. The name came from the appearance of reflections from the normally smooth ionosphere, which were spread over the altitude frequency coordinates used by the instrument. Attempts to understand this phenomenon in any depth activated such tools as radars and in situ probes such as rockets and satellites in the 1960s. Over the next 15 years, these tools expanded our experimental understanding enormously, and new nonlinear theoretical methods developed in the late 1970s, which led to proposing a name revision from ESF to convective ionospheric storms. Interest in these phenomena continues, but a new, practical aspect has developed from the associated turbulence effects on communications (transionosphere) and navigation (GPS). The first satellite to specifically investigate this problem and the associated goal of predicting occurrences is under the umbrella of the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS). In contemplating the successful first years of the C/NOFS program, reviewing the state of the art in our knowledge of convective ionospheric storms seems appropriate. We also present some initial results of this satellite program. A major goal of the National Space Weather Program, and of C/NOFS, is predicting these storms, analogous to thunderstorms in the lower atmosphere due to their adverse effects on communication and navigation signals. Although ambitious, predictive capability is a noble and important goal in the current technological age and is potentially within our reach during the coming decade.

- by John Retterer
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- Engineering, Earth Sciences, Ionosphere, Space Weather
- by Joseph Lemaire
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- Space Weather, Time Dependent, Ionizing Radiation, Space Missions

The present work is the second of a three-part review of space weather in Latin America, specifically observing its evolution in three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico). This work comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.

- by Clezio De Nardin and +1
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- Space Weather

The fields of solar radiophysics and solar system radio physics, or radio heliophysics, will benefit immensely from an instrument with the capabilities projected for SKA. Potential applications include interplanetary scintillation (IPS), radio-burst tracking, and solar spectral radio imaging with a superior sensitivity. These will provide breakthrough new insights and results in topics of fundamental importance, such as the physics of impulsive energy releases, magnetohydrodynamic oscillations and turbulence, the dynamics of post-eruptive processes, energetic particle acceleration , the structure of the solar wind and the development and evolution of solar wind transients at distances up to and beyond the orbit of the Earth. The combination of the high spectral, time and spatial resolution and the unprecedented sensitivity of the SKA will radically advance our understanding of basic physical processes operating in solar and heliospheric plasmas and provide a solid foundation for the forecasting of space weather events. Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array

- by Eduard Kontar
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- Radio Astronomy, Heliophysics, Space Plasma Physics, Space Physics
- by Tsvetan Dachev
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- Mechanical Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Space, Space Weather

We investigate an Australian Aboriginal cultural story that seems to describe an extraordinary series of astronomical events occurring at the same time. We hypothesise that this was a witnessed natural event and explore natural phenomena that could account for the description. We select a thunderstorm, total solar eclipse, and strong Aurora Australis as the most likely candidates, then conclude a plausible date of 764 CE. We evaluate the different factors that would determine whether all these events could have been visible, include meteorological data, alternative total solar eclipse dates, solar activity cycles, aurorae appearances, and sky brightness during total solar eclipses. We conduct this study as a test-case for rigorously and systematically examining descriptions of rare natural phenomena in oral traditions, highlighting the difficulties and challenges with interpreting this type of hypothesis.

- by Robert S Fuller and +1
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- Mythology And Folklore, History, Ancient History, History of Science and Technology
- by D. Widarto
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- Geology, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Ionosphere
- by James Wanliss
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- Physics, Space Weather, Magnetic Storm, Space Storm

This research was performed to characterize the variability of weather behavior in the lower and upper atmosphere layers, particularly its dependence on conditions in the troposphere and ionosphere at six different stations over UKM Bangi, Selangor. The measurements are based on short-term monitoring of precipitable water vapour (PWV) in the troposphere and total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere using

- by WAYAN SUPARTA
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- Ionosphere, Space Weather, Solar Activity, Total Electron Content
- by Brent Ledvina
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- Ionosphere, Space Weather, Magnetospheric Physics