Technology Foresight Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Esta publicación es producto de la selección y edición de los mejores trabajos presentados durante las Terceras Jornadas de Planificación para el Desarrollo, que se celebraron en paralelo con el seminario internacional “Los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible y la Construcción de Futuros para América Latina y el Caribe”, organizado en Santiago de Chile, del 18 al 20 de mayo de 2016, por el Instituto Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Planificación Económica y Social (ILPES) de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Este seminario se desarrolló en el marco de las actividades del convenio de cooperación técnica entre la CEPAL y la República de Corea.

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- Latin American Studies, Economics of Innovation, Strategic Planning, Foresight

In this article, Foresight Model of Turkey's Defense Industries' Space Studies, which is turned out to be the important part of community life and fundamental background of most technologies, up to 2040 is presented. Turkey got late in space technology studies. Hence, for being fast and efficient to use its national resources in a cost effective way and within national and international collaboration, it should be directed to its pre-set goals. By taking all these factors into consideration, the technology foresight model of Turkey's Defense Industry's Space Studies was presented in the study. In the model, the present condition of space studies in the World and Turkey was analyzed; literature survey and PEST analysis were made. PEST analysis will be the inputs of SWOT analysis and Delphi questionnaire will be used in the study. A two-round Delphi survey will be applied to the participants from universities, public and private organizations operating in space studies at Defense Industry. Critical space technologies will be distinguished according to critical technology measures determined by expert survey; space technology fields and goals will be established according to their importance and feasibility indexes. Finally, for the decision makers, opportunist and possible prospective exploratory scenarios will be set forth according to determined vision.

- by Dr. Hasan Çifci and +2
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- Space Sciences, Technology Foresight, Science and Technology Studies

Because the input for Futures Studies is to a very high degree formulated as written words and
texts, methods which automate the processing of texts can substantially help Futures Studies.
At Shaping Tomorrow, we have developed a software system using Natural Language Processing
(NLP), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence, which automatically analyzes publicly available texts and
extracts future-relevant data from theses texts. This process can be used to study the futures.
This article discusses this software system, explains how it works with a detailed example, and
shows real-life applications and visualizations of the resulting data. The current state of this
method is just the first step; a number of technological improvements and their possible benefits
are explained. The implications of using this software system for the field of Futures Studies are
mostly positive, but there are also a number of caveats.

Purpose-The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore.
Design/methodology/approach-This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants.
Findings-This study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore's vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered.
Research limitations/implications-As the findings are fruit of the authors' interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research.
Originality/value-This study presents the interpretation of elite informants' accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.

- by Alex Fergnani
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- Government, Strategic Foresight, Singapore, Foresight

In this Science-Fiction Prototyping article, I present an imaginative forward look at how artificial intelligence and virtual environments might change the nature of future education. The discussion is intended to be a somewhat speculative and thought provoking journey into what may be possible. At its root, it imagines a future time when the technological singularity has been reached, and machine intelligence and interaction is equal or surpasses that of people. I do this by means of a fictional reflection on how life might be in the future, a set of four small vignettes and a discussion of the factual research inspiring these views.

Amidst fears over artificial intelligence 'arms races' , much of the international debate on governing military uses of AI is still focused on preventing the use of lethal autonomous weapons systems (laws). Yet 'killer robots' hardly exhaust the potentially problematic capabilities that innovation in military AI (mai) is set to unlock. Gov-ernance initiatives narrowly focused on preserving 'meaningful human control' over laws therefore risk being bypassed by the technological state-of-the-art. This paper departs from the question: how can we formulate 'innovation-proof governance' approaches that are resilient or adaptive to future developments in military AI? I develop a typology for the ways in which mai innovation can disrupt existing international legal frameworks. This includes 'direct' disruption-as new types of mai capabilities elude categorization under existing regimes-as well as 'indirect' disruption, where new capabilities shift the risk landscape of military AI, or change the incentives or values of the states developing them. After discussing two potential objections to 'in-novation-proof governance' , I explore the advantages and shortcomings of three possible approaches to innovation-proof governance for military AI. While no definitive blueprint is offered, I suggest key considerations for governance strategies that seek to ensure that military AI remains lawful, ethical, stabilizing, and safe.

3D printing technology has been considered one of the most potentially groundbreaking technologies for the future, as the customer expectations, market requirements, and the competition grows in a global scale. In order to understand the potential effect of 3D printing technology and if it is a disruptive innovation that will change the traditional manufacturing paradigm, it is essential to examine the diffusion of knowledge in this area. In this study, 3D printing technology has been reviewed and patent analysis regarding 3D printing technology has been conducted in order to understand the diffusion of 3D printing technology. The results of the patent analysis indicate that the diffusion of 3D printing technology which is represented by the patents of four key methods not expected to fit with Bass diffusion model. According to the findings, it can be concluded that 3D printing technologies are in a situation where a state of maturity has not been reached, yet the growth still continues.

- by Kemal Yayla and +1
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- Foresight, Futures Studies and Foresight, Technology Foresight

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the... more

- by Gino Ledda
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- Textiles, Technology Management, Philippines, Scenario planning

Futures studies have always been important for people to anticipate the future and take actions. Since technology is for society, Future oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) have been widely implemented based on different concepts through different dimensions. Foresight, one of the FTA, has evolved throughout its journey within its generations until today. In this article, foresight generations in the literature are put forth as grouped and the framework of new technology foresight generation as sixth generation (Foresight 6.0) is offered and detailed. Foresight 6.0 is evaluated on the focused dimensions, participating actors, economic bases and principles. The rising concepts of Industry 4.0, Society 5.0, netocracy, cyberspace, biotechnology, ethical values and blurriness of the roles in economy are the primary factors in this new generation of foresight.

- by Dr. Hasan Çifci
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- Future Studies, Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies

This work focuses on the actor perspective and elaborates the relations to the self and the applied technology in self-tracking (ST), expanding critical studies. Based on ethnographic material with ST informants and four years of autoethnography by the author, two complementary but also individually occurring modes of self-relations were synthesized. Interwoven in a duality a co-existence and ambiguity of self-care and self-control, which appear as two sides of the same coin, emerge.
The self-control relation is characterized by increased awareness and complexity-reducing information about oneself, motivation (often occurring as self-challenge), and considering algorithmic recommendations, which summa summarum facilitate orientation and decision making in daily life. However, the self-control relation can go astray on the downside into losing control over the control (and becoming compulsive and addictive) and over the data.
The self-care relation entails placing oneself in the center of attention in a digital medium by increased self-thematization, archiving body diaries, and self-affirmation. Self-concepts are no longer primarily constructed, confirmed, or rejected by the social environment but also by applying digital technologies upon oneself. However, self-care can be undermined on the downside, such as self-doubt, self-deception (maybe narcissism), and self-distraction.
Three different relations to ST technology in technologically mediated self-care and self-control were elaborated: technology as a means, a counterpart (partner, nanny, coach), and a promise of salvation. Here another dialectic becomes visible. In using ST devices, the relationship of the users to technology seems to intensify, with the technology being able to perform a partner-like or even superior role.
Finally, the often-assumed self-optimization in ST emerges as harmonizing and balancing life-maintenance tasks.

- by Agnieszka Krzeminska
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- Media Studies, Digital Technology, Anthropomorphism, Technology Foresight

- by Nyker Matthew C King and +7
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- Textiles, Technology Management, Philippines, Scenario planning

- by Gino Ledda
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- Textiles, Technology Management, Philippines, Scenario planning
- by Nyker Matthew C King
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- Technology Management, Mobile Money, Technology Foresight, E-Money

- by Rozan Samodio
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- Textiles, Technology Management, Philippines, Scenario planning

This brief technical essay describes the origins of the Manoa approach to scenario building, and offers step-by-step instructions in building scenarios to maximize difference from the present using the Manoa approach. It is well suited... more

- by Wendy L. Schultz
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- Strategic Foresight, Scenario Based Planning, Forecasting, Futures Studies

Foresight is a systematic and multidisciplinary process with proper methodology combinations for identifying technological, economic and social areas to prioritize investments and research to realize medium or long-term future strategies by using various resources from organizational to international level. Cybersecurity is the protection of cyber systems from cyber-attacks and providing integrity, confidentiality, and availability of those systems. In this thesis, information about technology foresight and cybersecurity is given through a detailed literature review and with the examples from all over the world. Two round Delphi survey, focus group, and scenario methods were mainly performed in order to develop Turkey’s national cybersecurity technology foresight. In the study, a new technology foresight model and framework created by the researcher and thesis supervisor were followed to keep up with an optimum approach. The thesis is concluded by the concrete policy suggestions based on the foresight outputs.

- by Dr. Hasan Çifci
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- Foresight, Cyber Warfare, Futures Studies and Foresight, Technology Foresight

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.
Design/methodology/approach-The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.
Findings-The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.
Originality/value-The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

- by Alex Fergnani
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- Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies, Scenario planning
- by Javier Vitale and +1
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- Foresight, Futures Studies and Foresight, Technology Foresight, Prospectiva

This paper suggests new technology foresight approach named Foresight Periscope Model (FPM). The article starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and new definition is given by the authors. Elements of widely accepted foresight definitions are analyzed and depicted on a table according to the number of references in the definitions. Based on the literature analysis, foresight generations are grouped into four main categories. Foresight frameworks are analyzed and a generic foresight functional model with nine consecutive phases named 'FORESIGHT' is suggested. Functions in the FORESIGHT model are matched with the phases of prominent foresight frameworks in the literature based on their actions and artifacts within specific phases. FPM is a new technology foresight approach which has three interdependent modules; Resources, Methodology and Futures Strategies. Model makes use of periscope resemblance, that is, resources and methodology are underlying parts that enable an organization to see alternative futures and provide futures strategies to follow in order to survive and compete in the environment. Resources that can be used in a foresight exercise are explained. Foresight methods in the literature are grouped according to various criteria and the approach to choose the right methods to create proper methodology is stated. The model concludes with futures strategies which put foresight process into action by taking advantage of underlying resources and methodology. FPM does not impose a specific methods or process to attain the desired future. It provides a framework for practitioners to start with and to complete a foresight exercise by using optimum resources and proper methodology.

- by Dr. Hasan Çifci
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- Future Studies, Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies

Futures studies have enormous effect to reduce the development gap between developing and developed countries. But there are challenges in developing countries that deeply affect foresight activities and diminish its applicable usage. Although future oriented planning usually faces natural difficulties to properly assume all values and assumptions of all stakeholders, but in developing countries some key challenges affect the outputs of the foresight process severely. In this writing these challenges are categorized into four main groups. The first group of challenges refers to Foresight assumptions and context, the second is methodological aspects of foresight, next Foresight stakeholders and networking, and finally technological aspects of foresight and its related challenges.

- by Ardeshir Sayah
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- Future Studies, Development Studies, Social Sciences, Research Methodology

We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images
of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory
analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay,
Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion. The archetypes in
part overlap with and confirm previous research, and in part are novel. They all involve stresspoint
critical conditions in the external environment. We explain why the six archetypes, as a
foresight framework, is more transformational and nuanced than previously developed scenario
archetypes frameworks, making it particularly suited to the current necessity to think the unthinkable
more systematically. We explain how the six archetypes framework can be used as
predetermined images of the future to create domain specific scenarios, making organizations
more resilient to critical, disruptive futures. We finally present and discuss a case study of the
application of the method to create scenarios of post-Covid-19 futures of work.

- by Alex Fergnani and +1
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- Strategic Foresight, Science Fiction, Foresight, Science Fiction Film

Wer technologische Trends und die Potenziale neuer Technologien frühzeitig erkennt, verschafft sich essenzielle Wettbewerbsvorteile und legt ein Fundament für Produktinno-vationen. Unternehmen stehen jedoch vor der Herausforderung, zum einen die stetige Flut an neuen technologischen Entwicklungen im Auge zu behalten und zum anderen die für sie relevanten Trends zu identifizieren. Im Abschlussbuch des Verbundforschungsprojektes »syncTech – synchronisierte Techno-logieadaption als Treiber der strategischen Produktinnovation« werden neueste Metho-den, organisatorische Modelle und semantische Werkzeuge zur Informations gewinnung und-speicherung beschrieben. Wie diese dazu beitragen,Technologien und techno-logische Entwicklungen frühzeitig zu erkennen und entsprechende Nutzen potenziale systematisch im unternehmerischen Kontext zu bewerten, wird unter anderem anhand von Praxisberichten der Unternehmen Eisenmann SE, Festo AG & Co. KG, Alfred Kärcher GmbH & Co. KG sowie Schnaithmann Maschinenbau GmbH aufgezeigt.

- by Sven Schimpf
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- Technology Foresight, Management of Technology

El material que aquí se presenta es el resultado de un esfuerzo colectivo realizado por un grupo de profesionales de distintos Institutos pertenecientes al Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (CNIA) y del Instituto de Investigación en Prospectiva y Políticas Públicas, en el marco de la articulación con el PNSEPT 1129043 “Procesos socio-técnicos de innovación en los territorios” del Programa Nacional para el Desarrollo y Sustentabilidad de los Territorios.
El proceso, de casi un año y medio de duración, estuvo orientada a reflexionar sobre los posibles futuros respecto de la producción y gestión del conocimiento en el Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (CNIA) hacia el año 2030. Los resultados alcanzados se consolidan en cuatro escenarios posibles y plausibles.
Estos resultados no buscan, sin embargo, ser el punto de llegada, sino que esperamos se conviertan en un punto de partida para abrir nuevas discusiones que permitan consolidar el pensamiento estratégico en el Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA)

- by Leticia González and +2
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- Forecasting, Foresight, Agriculture, Science and Technology Policy

Energy industries face major future challenges related to environment, security, and economics. Here we present a scenario-building framework based on the Global Business Network (GBN) method to help energy industries to develop more resilient conservation policies when faced with unpredictable and external uncertainties. The approach combines several foresight methods such as Delphi; Political, Economical, Social, and Technological (PEST) analysis, and Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA). In addition, a strategic foresight software program (MICMAC) was applied in the scenario-building phase. The proposed integrated scenario-based robust planning approach builds on the strengths of traditional scenario planning, but overcomes its weaknesses by offering a systematic process for scenario creation and easy implementation. The outcome of this approach is a limited range of core strategies. We use Iran as the case for a more detailed application of the method. Foreign investments in the energy industry, external economic sanctions, and the domestic energy consumption growth were found as the key drivers and critical uncertainties in the Iranian energy industry. Three scenarios based on these critical uncertainties and expert information were developed: Technology-driven, Stagnation, and Self-sufficiency scenario. For these scenarios, a range of robust strategies was determined. National energy efficiency and productivity increases emerged as the key factors for robustness. The main macro-level result was that economic and political drivers will be the most important factors for Iran's energy futures followed by technological and social factors.

- by Reza Alizadeh and +1
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- Future Studies, Energy Economics, Decision Making, Renewable Energy

没有人知道未来是怎样的。既然如此，企业又该如何为这个充满各种可能性的烧脑未来做好准备呢？针对此，本文提供了几种方法可以降低未知陷阱带来的风险。

- by Alex Fergnani
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- Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies, Scenario planning

An increasing number of technology firms are implementing processes to identify and evaluate the ethical risks of their systems and products. A key part of these review processes is to foresee potential impacts of these technologies on different groups of users. In this article, we use the expression Ethical Foresight Analysis (EFA) to refer to a variety of analytical strategies for anticipating or predicting the ethical issues that new technological artefacts, services, and applications may raise. This article examines several existing EFA methodologies currently in use. It identifies the purposes of ethical foresight, the kinds of methods that current methodolo-gies employ, and the strengths and weaknesses of each of these current approaches. The conclusion is that a new kind of foresight analysis on the ethics of emerging technologies is both feasible and urgently needed.

- by Luciano Floridi
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- Business Ethics, Information Technology, Philosophy, Political Philosophy

Scholars claim that futures and foresight science should overcome “confusion” regarding the definition of core concepts, for example, the scenario. Admittedly, defining scenario has been a challenge. Current practice, which results in repeated attempts to clarify said confusion with yet another new definition of scenario, has apparently not advanced the field. An alternative option is not to redefine scenario, but to, instead, create a shared definition composed of component parts of pre‐existing definitions. The result is an operant or synthesized definition based on analysis of claims indicating what “a scenario is…” and “scenarios are…” in the literature on scenario planning. The authors find that scenarios have a temporal property rooted in the future and reference external forces in that context; scenarios should be possible and plausible while taking the proper form of a story or narrative description; and that scenarios exist in sets that are systematically prepared to coexist as meaningful alternatives to one another. Despite claims to the contrary, the authors find that the academic community of futures and foresight science does not seem to suffer from so‐called confusion over the definition of scenario, and thus, it is time to sunset the use of claims to this end.

Con gradi diversi di efficacia, sono sempre più numerose le aziende che guardano sistematicamente al futuro per modificare le loro offerte attuali e renderle più pronte a rispondere alle richieste di un mercato sempre più volatile,... more

- by Alex Fergnani and +1
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- Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies, Scenario planning

The paper aims to explore the potential shifts AI and AI-led converging technologies can bring to the security environment. To do so, this research identifies two relevant cases designated by the United Nations as challenges to International peace and security in the 21st century. The weaponization of audiovisuals in the form of deep faks and the weaponization of data through microtargeting are two cases that provide the scope to analyze and explore some of the potential shifts occurring to the security environment as a cause of the weaponization of information.

Given the importance of a hermeneutic extension of Technology Assessment (TA), we should ask which kind of knowledge can be created from such perspective and whether and how such knowledge can be relevant for policymaking. Hermeneutic TA aims at understanding the "meaning attributed to emerging technologies in societal discourses". In this article, I will suggest that from the perspective of hermeneutic TA it becomes clear that TA has directed much attention to the "vanguard visions" of some rather elitist visionaries, whose narratives of technological futures have attracted a lot of media attention and stirred up societal debates. Nanotechnology is the most pertinent example. Meaning has been attributed to such comprehensive, techno-scientific futures, elevating them to form the backdrop of public discourses, technology assessments and policy-making. Such attribution carries a prescriptive power and pushes to political action or further social scientific inquiry. Acknowledging this should raise the awareness that many peo-ple's visions of the future are not part of the policy debates in which TA is involved and in which the future is negotiated. This imbalance might be expressed by saying that they do "not have a future". In the present article, I will explore this notion and its normative implications.

- by Martin Sand
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- Nanoethics, Technology Assessment, Hermeneutics and Narrative, Futures Studies

La prospectiva, como conjunto de técnicas y métodos orientados a construir pensamiento estratégico dentro de las organizaciones, fue introducida hace relativamente poco en el ámbito público nacional, en tanto se consideraba que su aporte a la planificación de políticas públicas no resultaba central. Sin embargo, en los últimos años, ha venido desarrollándose desde el Estado un proceso de recuperación de la disciplina como herramienta no sólo válida sino central para pensar en respuestas holísticas e integrales a problemas globales. Así, se intenta, poco a poco, recuperar el propio espíritu de la actividad: pensar el largo plazo desde una visión sistémica.
En el marco de esta perspectiva, entre los años 2015 y 2016, profesionales del Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias del Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (CNIA-INTA) y del Instituto de Investigación en Prospectiva y Políticas Públicas (IIPyPP-INTA) llevaron adelante un un ejercicio prospectivo orientado a reflexionar sobre los posibles futuros respecto de la producción y gestión del conocimiento en el CNIA hacia el año 2030.
El presente artículo busca realizar un breve recorrido por el ejercicio realizado para reflexionar acerca de cómo los insumos generados en este tipo estudios pueden contribuir al proceso de construcción de políticas públicas para el sector.

- by Leticia González and +2
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- Future Studies, Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Agricultural Sciences

Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered.

Decision-makers, experts and laymen in different historical periods and in different socioeconomic systems shared at least one desire: to know their future in advance or even to influence it for their advantage. They have used very different approaches and methods from spiritual/ religious ones to scientific investigations and various modes of planning. This paper is aimed at characterising foresight, first by locating this approach among the various approaches to future-oriented analyses, and then by identifying three types foresight programmes.

- by Attila Havas
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- Future Studies, Strategic Foresight, Forecasting, Foresight

This Science-Fiction Prototype ruminates on a post-singularity world, where transhumanism practices are in widespread use. In particular, the discussion focuses on a form of transhumanism that involves reengineering the brain, and associated reality experiences, as part of an educational process. The paper uses two short SFPs to explore some consequences of transhumanism for immersive education ideas (the focus of the host conference). The article concludes by postulating that we may, perhaps unwittingly, already be on a path to such a future with the advent of technologies like augmented reality glasses and wonders where we might draw a line that we shouldn’t cross.

- by Victor Callaghan
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- Creative Writing, Fiction Writing, Future Studies, Philosophy of Science

We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and termination. Concurrently, three social processes tend to be activated to cope with the pandemic: healthcare, political, and public awareness. This model is used to compare the social imaginary reflected in films with the current COVID-19 outbreak. The resemblance of the model and the current outbreak suggests that fictional pandemic films may still follow our collective understanding of the pandemic dynamics. Four scenarios are suggested as road maps for futures and foresight practice concerned with future pandemic outbreaks.

- by Alex Fergnani
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- Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies, Scenario planning

Esta investigación explora distintos modelos de probabilidad de demanda laboral inducida por el comportamiento innovador de las empresas peruanas a dos niveles, promedio nacional y de tres industrias particulares: industrias creativas y culturales, servicios intensivos
en conocimiento (kibs) y alta y media-alta tecnología (amat), ya que la evidencia internacional sugiere que dichas actividades tienen la facultad de generar nuevo conocimiento que al difundirse influye también en el
comportamiento innovador de otros sectores. Las variables independientes se agrupan en determinantes internos y externos a la empresa, que actúan sobre ella por medio de derrames de conocimiento. Se encontró que, para una empresa promedio que introdujo alguno de los tres tipos de innovación analizados y que contrató personal como consecuencia de dichas introducciones, la mayor cantidad de derrames de conocimiento importantes para ella proviene respectivamente de las kibs, industrias creativas y culturales y amat. Sin embargo, se observa también que la magnitud de los derrames de conocimiento de las empresas innovadoras de industrias creativas y culturales sobre las kibs es mayor que el observado de manera inversa, es decir, las kibs se beneficiarían más de las industrias creativas y culturales como fuente externa de conocimiento que viceversa. En síntesis, las industrias creativas y culturales son importantes entonces para promover la innovación en el conjunto de la economía.

This paper contributes to the recent discussion about the standards and quality of futures research. The quality criteria proposed by Kuusi (Futura 1/15, 2015) concern the internal and external validity of a futures research process and its outcomes. This paper introduces a new tool for technology anticipation and evaluation called the Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) and analyses its internal and external validity in light of the recently proposed quality criteria for futures research. The aim is to provide a practical use case for the quality criteria where the validity of a new methodology is analysed.

- by Anna-Leena Vasamo
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- Strategic Foresight, Foresight, Futures Studies, Futures Studies and Foresight

The need and relevance of using FTA for decision-making in the private and public sector is becoming ever more apparent. The complexity and multi-faceted nature of issues that need to be addressed, and the inescapable attendant uncertainty, requires a very different approach from the traditional analysis of internal capabilities and external possibilities through strategic planning. What is increasingly required is a capacity to contemplate and engage with a number of possible futures, to draw on the intelligence and perspectives of a wide range of actors, and to apply these in a dynamic, pro-active fashion, in a continuous learning process.
Under these circumstances, demonstration of the impact of the application of FTA and of means to enhance that impact, are paramount. Precise cost-benefit analyses, however, are inappropriate. FTA should be understood as a conceptual framework, an art (practice) and a set of tools. Therefore, a broader set of criteria is required to evaluate its impacts.
The paper first provides an overview of the theoretical frameworks, in which the FTA impacts can be assessed. Then a new, but more simple, pragmatic approach is proposed for analysing the use of FTA, namely a distinction between the arguments used by FTA experts and the expectations of potential ‘clients’. The paper concludes that major efforts are needed to operationalise the existing theoretical frameworks to assist actual impact assessment projects, and thus making impact assessment a widely used practice. In doing so, the FTA community will be in a position to analyse the differences between the promised, expected and actual impacts. That would improve the design of FTA projects, and contribute to a more appropriate and wider use of FTA.

- by Ron Johnston and +1
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- Strategic Foresight, Economics of Innovation, Foresight, Public Policy Analysis

The recent increase of unexpected crises and the complexity and urgency of the extraordinary policy challenges they give rise to, highlights the fact that foresight must not be a luxury. Indeed, more than ever before in history, foresight has become an essential pre-requisite for proactive, informed and collective action. Foresight provides a systematic approach to support a deeper reflection on where changes of policy direction are needed, how to engineer required transitions, flagging potential barriers, and meaningful engagement and empowerment of end users.
Foresight processes and advice at European level are not developed in a vacuum but complement and compete with other strategic policy advice mechanisms, including for example informal expert groups, Horizon 2020 Advisory Groups, the Scientific Advice Mechanism (SAM) and the Research, Innovation and Science Expert Group (RISE). The added value of foresight is to provide analysis in terms of forward-looking framing of key challenges (for example, transition to the bio economy, the migration-climate change nexus, Industry 4.0) through the consideration of trends and weak signals of change, sense-making of these trends and weak signals, the exploration of alternative scenarios and through co-design processes.
The Expert Group worked on four work streams to develop:
- Foresight guidelines for strategic programming of research, in particular in support of the next Framework Programme (cf. bringing foresight closer to the policy-making process).
- An operational plan for a flexible and informal European network of foresight experts for research, science and innovation policy that could address the Commission's need for strategic intelligence and sense-making.
- A 'Rapid Response'-Mechanism (RRM). This included the provision of pilot rapid response sense-making of signals that change in society, economy, and technology is occurring on issues deemed relevant for R&I policy.
- A frame for the better use of foresight in selecting R&I topics and doing R&I policy in a bottom-up, inclusive mode.

- by Attila Havas
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- European Studies, Foresight, Futures Studies and Foresight, European Commission

Mankind has already committed Suicide: Every option available to course-correct the crises, risks the existence of humanity as a whole. And yet, we do not - as a whole - apprehend this foundational understanding to the risk of Being and... more

- by H. E. Ambassador Gilbert Morris
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- Technology, Meaning of Life, Martin Heidegger, Suicide

Technology roadmapping is a technique that has received increasing attention from industry and academia. However, most studies were done in manufacturing industries, which are relatively stable compared to dynamic sectors as software, where the technological change is constant and difficult to forecast. This paper identifies how the technology roadmapping is performed in three important Brazilian software companies and introduces the concept of agile roadmapping. As the traditional roadmapping, the agile method also seeks to align technology and strategy by planning the market-product-technology triad. However, there are important differences in agile roadmapping: the focus is on short term; roadmapping is not an isolated project, but an institutionalized cycle systematically repeated; there is great involvement of business and technology areas; finally, despite the roadmap is formalized only for short term, companies do care about the future through continuous processes to monitor technological opportunities and threats.

- by Adalton Ozaki and +1
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- Software Engineering, Strategic Foresight, Management of Innovation, Foresight