Defense and Strategic Studies Research Papers (original) (raw)

Regardless of its military might, the current availability of powerful, easily-concealed weapons makes it difficult for any nation to ensure peace at home or abroad. Moreover, there is growing concern that fear-based strategies of defense... more

Regardless of its military might, the current availability of powerful, easily-concealed weapons makes it difficult for any nation to ensure peace at home or abroad. Moreover, there is growing concern that fear-based strategies of defense and peace-making cannot create or maintain lasting peace. Against this dismal backdrop, recent research documents the effectiveness of a new peace-creating technology which is profound in its concept, affordable, and easily implemented. Over forty presented or published studies on this technology, which was derived from ancient Vedic knowledge by Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, confirm its ability to reduce conflict, promote international cooperation, reduce societal disorder, and improve quality of life. The research is so compelling that, for the first time in modern history, alternative, nonthreatening strategies for securing peace can be realistically proposed.

Based on laws and the White Book of Defense

The thesis examines the Eisenhower administration’s decisions to use space for intelligence and military purposes. By examining significant National Security Council (NSC) documents, including reports and meeting notes, the thesis... more

The thesis examines the Eisenhower administration’s decisions to use space for intelligence and military purposes. By examining significant National Security Council (NSC) documents, including reports and meeting notes, the thesis presents an argument that since the very beginning, U.S. space policy included a provision for intelligence and military applications of satellites as a matter of national security. Throughout the Eisenhower presidency, the concept of “peaceful” use of outer space, which did not preclude satellites from having certain military applications, was never questioned at the NSC.

This monograph considers how a classical challenge that commanders face in war—namely, making critical decisions on the basis of limited and often unreliable information—has been exacerbated in the era of big data. Data overload... more

This monograph considers how a classical challenge that commanders face in war—namely, making critical decisions on the basis of limited and often unreliable information—has been exacerbated in the era of big data. Data overload complicates the intelligence community’s efforts to identify and exclude disinformation, misinformation, and deception, and thus hampers its ability to deliver reliable intelligence to inform decision-makers in a timely manner. The military commander remains responsible for making a final decision, yet the great wealth of data now available through the intelligence cycle amplifies the risk of decision paralysis. With this in mind, technological solutions tend to be considered the most appropriate response for managing data overload and disinformation. While these remain relevant, they alone may be insufficient to equip the military commander with the necessary insight to guide decisions through the uncertainty of the big data environment. Rather, the militar...

1. O dia 26 de setembro foi escolhido pelas Nações Unidas (ONU) como o Dia Internacional para Eliminação Total das Armas Nucleares. Este tem sido um dos objetivos centrais da ONU por mais de 75 anos. Qual a atual situação das negociações... more

1. O dia 26 de setembro foi escolhido pelas Nações Unidas (ONU) como o Dia Internacional para Eliminação Total das Armas Nucleares. Este tem sido um dos objetivos centrais da ONU por mais de 75 anos. Qual a atual situação das negociações para o desarmamento nuclear dos países? Como a diplomacia pode atuar nesse cenário? O século XX nos deixou um legado muito perigoso-milhares de armas nucleares. Muitos países adquiriram bombas nucleares e mísseis. O teste de novas amostras continua. Ainda nos falta transparência na construção nuclear. Tecnologia de bombas, segredos nucleares e materiais circulam no mercado negro. A ameaça de uso de materiais nucleares por grupos terroristas tornou-se um problema sério hoje. O progresso no desarmamento nuclear é insuficiente e o problema da proliferação nuclear está se tornando mais sério. Os programas nucleares do Irã e da Coréia do Norte continuam sendo fonte de profunda preocupação para a comunidade internacional e ameaçam o regime de não proliferação e o desarmamento nuclear. Isso significa que os riscos nucleares globais estão se diversificando, e a comunidade mundial deve tomar todas as medidas possíveis para interromper sua proliferação e prevenir o surgimento de novos Estados nucleares. A cooperação perante o problema das armas de destruição.

The State fit to represent the interests of society, seeking to harmonize interests and give a global response to the different conflicts. The performance of the State connects, in this area, above all, the Fundamental objective of... more

The State fit to represent the interests of society, seeking to harmonize interests and give a global response to the different conflicts.
The performance of the State connects, in this area, above all, the Fundamental objective of Social peace.

Nous montrons dans cette étude, sur l’exemple américain, que les contrats de vente à l’exportation associés aux obligations d’offsets ont un effet économique net positif sur la base industrielle. Une analyse sectorielle permet toutefois... more

Nous montrons dans cette étude, sur l’exemple américain, que les contrats de vente à l’exportation associés aux obligations d’offsets ont un effet économique net positif sur la base industrielle. Une analyse sectorielle permet toutefois de nuancer ce résultat. Le principal secteur bénéficiaire des contrats de vente à l’international a été celui de la fabrication d’aéronefs. À l’inverse, les secteurs de la fabrication de moteurs et de pièces de moteurs d’aéronefs ainsi que celui de la conception de composants et d’équipements auxiliaires dédiés aux aéronefs ont connu plusieurs périodes de destructions nette d’emplois dues aux transactions d’offset. Ces observations confirment l’hypothèse selon laquelle l’impact principal des offsets
pèse essentiellement sur les fournisseurs et les sous-traitants des entreprises américaines exportatrices. À la lumière des données, malheureusement lacunaires, consacrées à cette question, on peut affirmer que les offsets intensifient la pression concurrentielle subie par les entreprises du pays exportateur et accélèrent effectivement le rattrapage technologique du pays acquéreur. Dans ces conditions ces pratiques peuvent contribuer à la disparition de certains maillons essentiels des chaînes de valeur historiquement localisés dans les pays industrialisés.

The article examines how new planning concepts and methods advanced by the RAND Corporation and adopted by the Pentagon during the 1990s served to inflate defense requirements. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the... more

The article examines how new planning concepts and methods advanced by the RAND Corporation and adopted by the Pentagon during the 1990s served to inflate defense requirements. A version appeared in the March/April 1998 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as “Inventing Threats.”

Fellow 2015-16 researching and writing a manuscript on contemporary Baltic defense from a strategic and historic perspective at the Changing Character of War programme at the University of Oxford. In 2014 he graduated with his doctorate... more

Fellow 2015-16 researching and writing a manuscript on contemporary Baltic defense from a strategic and historic perspective at the Changing Character of War programme at the University of Oxford. In 2014 he graduated with his doctorate from the University of Reading, where he studied strategy with Colin S. Gray. His first book, The Evolution of Modern Strategic Thought, is being published by Oxford University Press in 2016.

The Project on Defense Alternatives Appendix 3. The rise and fall of the Taliban: a note on their strategy and power The Taliban military coalition comprised (i) Taliban members proper (including long-time veterans and new adherents),... more

The Project on Defense Alternatives Appendix 3. The rise and fall of the Taliban: a note on their strategy and power The Taliban military coalition comprised (i) Taliban members proper (including long-time veterans and new adherents), (ii) warlord (former mujahedin) and tribal contingents, (iii) seasonal village conscripts, (iv) foreign forces. • The veteran core of the Taliban may have been no larger than 2,000-3,000 personnel; new (post 1995) adherents may have numbered another 6,000-8,000. • Warlord, tribal, and conscripted indigenous troops probably comprised an additional 20,000-25,000 troops; these troops constituted the soft outer shell of the Taliban coalition, likely to defect or desert under pressure. • Finally, foreign volunteers probably numbered 8-12,000. These included 5-7000 Pakistanis, 1,500-2,000 Chechens and members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and no more than 2-3,000 foreign fighters imported by the Al Qaeda network-mostly Arabs. Among the troops controlled by Al Qaeda only hundreds were likely core Al Qaeda members, distinguished by having signed a bayat or oath of allegiance to the jihad as defined by bin Laden. Among the Taliban adherents, the most important were the veteran cadre from Kandahar and surrounding provinces: these were the glue or the "solder" that held the Taliban coalition together. But the "soldering agent" in their rise to power was momentum, which they gained through their early victories and the promise of a return to peace and order that the Taliban embodied. This mobilized former students of the madrassahs on a broader basis, brought in new recruits, and helped sway Pashtun warlords and tribal leaders to join the coalition. The support of commercial trading interests and Pakistan also was essential to building Taliban power. Reinforcing the power of the Taliban were the foreign volunteers, the largest group being Pakistanis, who served as cannon fodder. Of course, the most important group of foreign fighters were the Afghan Arabs (organized through the al-Qaeda network) who combined dedication, experience, and relative fighting prowess. A3.1 The dilemma of Taliban success The Taliban accomplished what none of their mujahedin predecessors could: the relatively rapid unification of most of Afghanistan. This they did through a combination of (i) religious discipline and fervor, (ii) mobilization of a grassroots constituency (ie. village religious leaders and students) that cut across many divisions of tribe and locality in the Pashtun belt, and (iii) one genuinely popular program plank: the restoration of law and order. Many core Taliban leaders had been young members of the mujahedin militias during the time of the anti-Soviet war-especially the more traditionalist Islamic parties, Harakat-i-Inquilab-i-Islami and Younis Khalis' faction of Hisb-e-Islami. Within these they were distinguished by their religious devotion and training. What gave the Taliban initial organizational and ideological coherence was their common training in a few of the Pakistani madrassas. What shaped their identity as a movement was the experience of the post-Soviet civil war, during which the militias

China is pressing ahead with ambitious plans to create a massive infrastructure network connecting it with many countries across the globe. Some of the 'belt and road' infrastructure will however, run through regions convulsed by chronic... more

China is pressing ahead with ambitious plans to create a massive infrastructure network connecting it with many countries across the globe. Some of the 'belt and road' infrastructure will however, run through regions convulsed by chronic civil unrest, substantial criminality and incipient insurgencies and need protection by China's private security companies. Simultaneously the Chinese state is undertaking a major 'anti-secession and counter-terrorism' campaign in Xinjiang using a variety of high-technology means: artificial intelligence, big data, wireless connectivity, autonomous systems and robotics. The demand and supply sides seem to be in sync, suggesting Chinese private security companies will soon use a suite of advanced information technology systems with a proven employment doctrine across much of Central Asia, South Asia and Africa. Such a future may be plausible but it is by no means certain as various factors may yet thwart China's private security companies.

This document was created in hopes for a safer, more prosperous future of aeronautics. This document seeks to present an otherwise highly complex topic in the framework of game theory, economic or otherwise with players being governing... more

This document was created in hopes for a safer, more prosperous future of aeronautics. This document seeks to present an otherwise highly complex topic in the framework of game theory, economic or otherwise with players being governing entities as well as agencies within countries.

In a new Joint Studies Paper, I explore sea, land and air operational concepts appropriate to fighting near-to-medium term future AI-enabled wars. With much of the underlying narrow AI technology already developed in the commercial... more

In a new Joint Studies Paper, I explore sea, land and air operational concepts appropriate to fighting near-to-medium term future AI-enabled wars. With much of the underlying narrow AI technology already developed in the commercial sector, this is less of a speculative exercise than might be assumed. Moreover, the contemporary AI’s general-purpose nature means its initial employment will be within existing operational level constructs, not wholly new ones. Here, the focus is the sea domain. The operational concepts mooted are simply meant to stimulate thought about the future and how to prepare for it.

Devido à crescente complexificação das relações internacionais no pós-Guerra Fria, novas interpretações teóricas foram construídas na área da defesa e da segurança para tornar essa nova realidade inteligível. A transição da bipolaridade,... more

Devido à crescente complexificação das relações internacionais no pós-Guerra Fria, novas interpretações teóricas foram construídas na área da defesa e da segurança para tornar essa nova realidade inteligível. A transição da bipolaridade, que proporcionava relativa estabilidade ao cenário internacional , para um novo padrão de distribuição de poder, provocou a revisão de conceitos e de teorias nas Relações Internacionais. A partir dessa transição, no âmbito da defesa e da segurança internacional, o debate acerca da revisão do conceito de segurança e da abrangência dos estudos nessa área favoreceu o surgimento de novas teorias e o desenvolvimento de outras até então marginalizadas. A corrente tradicionalista (Traditional Security Studies - TSS), que dominara a agenda desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial, revelou-se cada vez mais inábil para explicar a nova realidade. Dessa forma, dentre as teorias que buscam preencher a lacuna conceitual surgida, duas outras escolas, a abrangente (Escola de Copenhague) e a escola crítica (Critical Security Studies – CSS), passaram a ter maior proeminência.

The book faces an essential contemporary issue: the definition of the limits of action, protection and use of cyberspace as a fifth operational domain, as well as in the measures to be taken to make this environment more secure. Using the... more

The book faces an essential contemporary issue: the definition of the limits of action, protection and use of cyberspace as a fifth operational domain, as well as in the measures to be taken to make this environment more secure. Using the term adopted by the US Department of Defense, the authors use practical experience to indicate an agenda that aims to create means to improve the defense of areas such as state security, economics, democracy and privacy.

In the 1970s, the Park Chung Hee administration (1961-79) leveraged all defense-related civilian industries to build an independent system of weapons production. In keeping with Park's advancement of military modernization driven by... more

In the 1970s, the Park Chung Hee administration (1961-79) leveraged all defense-related civilian industries to build an independent system of weapons production. In keeping with Park's advancement of military modernization driven by strong private-sector growth, an agenda that he promoted with his banner slogan “rich nation, strong military,” large Korean companies known as chaebŏl (재벌) were transformed to serve as government contractors that drove both national economic development and military modernization. A case study of one such company, Hanwha, illustrates how the state's hyper-militarization of Korean industries determined the distinct course and character of South Korea's national development. The study highlights the dynamic interplay that occurred between state actors and private-sector CEOs, managers, and laborers in shaping the chaebŏl-centered economic and defense industrialization.

This book sets out to explain the foreign policy of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (February 2014 to December 2016). It offers a unique analytical framework to make sense of Renzi’s foreign policy: the domestically-focused outsider.... more

This book sets out to explain the foreign policy of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (February 2014 to December 2016). It offers a unique analytical framework to make sense of Renzi’s foreign policy: the domestically-focused outsider. It argues that to untangle Renzi’s foreign policy one must first understand that his clear priority was enacting domestic economic and political reforms. Domestic focus means that Renzi made foreign policy decisions with a sensitivity to public opinion and party unity. The book also argues that Renzi’s status as an outsider in Italian politics—having previously served only as the mayor of Florence—provides critical insight into his foreign policy. Renzi was prone to skepticism of the establishment and dramatic, symbolic gestures rather than patient coalition building. The book applies this framework to the five most important foreign policy issues Renzi’s government faced: migration, finance and the EU, Russia, ISIL, and Libya. The book’s analysis of the cases benefits from over twenty elite interviews, including those with senior members of Renzi’s government

PDA Briefing Memo #30, 26 September 2003. Examines how air power helped bring about the rapid collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army in the 2003 war. The memo focuses specifically on the role of battlefield air... more

PDA Briefing Memo #30, 26 September 2003. Examines how air power helped bring about the rapid collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army in the 2003 war. The memo focuses specifically on the role of battlefield air interdiction. (The author distinguishes air interdiction and close air support missions by arguing that the latter help decide the immediate battle, while air interdiction shapes the battlefield and helps determine upcoming battles.) An outstanding feature of the analysis is a comparison of the air campaigns of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Desert Storm (1990-1991). The memo also estimates combatant casualties due to air interdiction in the 2003 war.

There is now available a nonlethal brain-based, scientifically-verified, field-tested, human resource-based technology to create lasting peace. Armed forces and civilian groups worldwide have been and are currently deploying this... more

There is now available a nonlethal brain-based, scientifically-verified, field-tested, human resource-based technology to create lasting peace. Armed forces and civilian groups worldwide have been and are currently deploying this cost-effective approach known as Invincible Defense Technology (IDT). Militaries use IDT to stop and prevent war, terrorism, crime and to make their homelands secure. IDT has been quietly demonstrated by these groups in particularly conflict-prone regions to be the ultimate approach for conducting operations other than war (OOTW). In defense-related circles IDT is gaining attention as leaders realize this is the ultimate OOTW strategy. The nation that properly deploys IDT becomes invincible, unconquerable, and incapable of being defeated; attaining victory BEFORE war by preventing enemies from ever arising. With IDT so easy to implement and so effective at creating invincibility, why haven't all militaries deployed this strategy? The answer can be found in Dr. Carla Linton Brown's Harvard University doctoral dissertation and subsequent paper published in the Journal of Social Behavior and Personality on attitudes towards Invincible Defense Technology. ,,,Italian airpower advocate General Giulio Douhet's strategy still applies today: "Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the change in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur." ...We may never know who would be inspired by this document to take action in India as well as other countries worldwide to utilize IDT as an OOTW strategy to creating lasting peace.

The article discusses the threat of bioterrorism and the importance of biodefense in the wake of COVID-19. In other words, it questions if the U.S. biodefense system is ready for a potential bioterror attack by bringing up some of the... more

The article discusses the threat of bioterrorism and the importance of biodefense in the wake of COVID-19. In other words, it questions if the U.S. biodefense system is ready for a potential bioterror attack by bringing up some of the catastrophic impacts of the pandemic on individuals, economies, and institutions.

While the new security environment has driven the EU to take a bigger role in security and defence, it has also forced the EU-NATO relations to evolve from a desirable strategic partnership to a more ‘essential’ one, since both their... more

While the new security environment has driven the EU to take a bigger role in security and defence, it has also forced the EU-NATO relations to evolve from a desirable strategic partnership to a more ‘essential’ one, since both their security is interconnected and neither organisation has the full range of tools available to address the new security challenges on its own. Thanks to the new framework initiated by the Joint Declaration in 2016, cooperation between the EU and NATO has been gradually improving in several designated areas. But it is obvious that, within the defined framework, there are many obstacles to overcome before opportunities could be more fully exploited. While the new challenges emanated from the East and South of Europe can be seen as an opportunity for a wider cooperation, the rise of illiberalism and authoritarianism in the world, even including the member nations, poses a big challenge against the cooperation. Further concrete steps are to be taken for a wider and substantial cooperation between two Brussels-based organisations. We argue that a joint response must be formulated in the form of a common strategy, implemented in an integrated way by using a more comprehensive toolbox.

Apresentação – Sabrina Evangelista Medeiros 3 O Conceito de Segurança no pós-Guerra Fria: notas introdutórias sobre o debate teórico/conceitual da subárea de Segurança Internacional - Ana Luiza Bravo e Paiva 6 O Softpower brasileiro no... more

Apresentação – Sabrina Evangelista Medeiros 3
O Conceito de Segurança no pós-Guerra Fria: notas introdutórias sobre o debate teórico/conceitual da subárea de Segurança Internacional - Ana Luiza Bravo e Paiva 6
O Softpower brasileiro no século XXI e seus desafios estruturais nos cenários nacional, regional e global - Danielle Ayres Pinto, Juliano Santos Bravo 15
Aspectos da Segurança Energética: o caso do Petróleo - André Figueiredo Nunes 46
Os Desafios para a Promoção da Segurança dos Sistemas Energéticos- Juliana Foguel Castelo Branco 69
Debates sobre segurança e defesa na União Europeia - Ana Paula Moreira Rodriguez Leite 96
Reflexões sobre a Política Marítima Integrada Europeia: o Livro Verde e os Clusters Marítimos - Taíssi Pepe de Medeiros 119
A geoestratégia Chinesa e Estadunidense vis-à-vis os interesses no Mar do Caribe e Venezuela - Laura Martucci Benvenuto 143
Das Caravelas a Cooperação Sul-Sul - o Atlântico de Língua Portuguesa em perspectiva comparada no âmbito da Defesa e da Segurança Internacional - Daniele Dionisio da Silva 168
O Prosub e o setor de Defesa: muito além da cooperação - Tatyanna Ramos Barreira 189
Cooperação internacional em defesa: acordos entre a Marinha do Brasil e a United States Navy - Carolina Ambinder de Carvalho 207
Imigração Na Europa Nos Dias De Hoje: É Possível Um Processo De Absorção? - Ana Fernanda Moreira Baptista 221
A importância do idioma na cooperação entre Estados: a simulação da Organização Marítima Internacional na Escola de Guerra Naval do Brasil - Carolina Ambinder, Isabella Terror, Jime Braga, Júlia Canuto 242
O Papel Articulador das Instituições do Mercosul: o modelo de solução de conflitos - Cintiene Sandes Monfredo Mendes 252
Jogos de Crise e Aprendizagem: Simulações em Benefício da Defesa – Sabrina E. Medeiros e Claudio Correa. 297

The law of war is part of who we are, it is part of our military heritage. Warfare may have changed shape, methods, and technologies – but the concept of one group of people battling another group of people defensively, due to religious... more

The law of war is part of who we are, it is part of our military heritage. Warfare may have changed shape, methods, and technologies – but the concept of one group of people battling another group of people defensively, due to religious conflict, balance of power, economy, or otherwise, remains constant to this day. The primary issues surrounding the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) international security can be separated into three main concerns. First, establishment of internationally agreed-upon legal definitions of the terms surrounding cyberspace and, cyberspace, and international security must be created. Second, to be addressed in a later paper, escalation scales must be produced by which each of those infractions can be judged and options for defensive retaliatory measures can be considered. Third, also to be addressed by a later paper, the methods by which assessment, attribution, and accountability are to be conducted11 must be applied to suit each of the legal definitions. Based upon category and placement on the new escalation scale, LOAC can be applied to new rules of engagement.
The goal is to identify a cyber event, then properly categorize it based on internationally agreed upon parameters, assess the severity against an escalation scale in order to determine a proper response, attribute the incident to a state or non-state actor, find the parties who perpetrated the incident, and strive to achieve justice.

1 The Technological challenges on the Battlefield of Tomorrow ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 2 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 3 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬... more

1 The Technological challenges on the Battlefield of Tomorrow ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 2 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 3 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 4 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 7 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 8 ‫מתוך‬ 51 ‫הטכנולוגיים‬ ‫האתגרים‬ ‫ב‬ ‫המחר‬ ‫של‬ ‫הקרב‬ ‫שדה‬ ‫עמוד‬ 11 ‫מתוך‬ 51

Unrestricted wargames can build confidence, test mental models, and provide a method to create military experiences outside of live exercises and direct combat operations. By pitting an individual or group against other living beings,... more

Unrestricted wargames can build confidence, test mental models, and provide a method to create military experiences outside of live exercises and direct combat operations. By pitting an individual or group against other living beings, these wargames require military professionals to confront the uncertainty of war. The dynamic nature of such wargames helps translate military theory into military practice. This article argues that unrestricted wargaming is a vital component of broadening military officers’ minds. By examining US and Japanese wargaming practices, the article proposes that unrestricted wargaming should be incorporated into Australian Army junior officer training courses to help officers test their biases, frame problems and accept alternative viewpoints.

Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. As with other developing countries, Turkey’s motivations for investing in national defence industries can be boiled down to the pursuit of defence autarky,... more

Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. As with other developing countries, Turkey’s motivations for investing in national defence industries can be boiled down to the pursuit of defence autarky, economic bene ts and international prestige. However, after 40 years of investment, Turkey is unable to reach the primary goals of defence industrialisation. We argue that three factors are important to understanding Turkey’s persistence in these primary goals. First, Turkey believes that there is an overall improvement in its defence industrial capabilities and the goal of autarky is still reachable. Second, increased defence exports support the belief that Turkish defence industries have become sustainable and the trend will continue in the future. The third reason, perhaps most important of all, has to do with the domestic political gains of defence industrialisation: the AKP uses defence industry and indigenous weapon systems for prestige and, therefore, garners broader support.

A navegação consulta e descarregamento dos títulos inseridos nas Bibliotecas Digitais UC Digitalis, UC Pombalina e UC Impactum, pressupõem a aceitação plena e sem reservas dos Termos e Condições de Uso destas Bibliotecas Digitais,... more

A navegação consulta e descarregamento dos títulos inseridos nas Bibliotecas Digitais UC Digitalis, UC Pombalina e UC Impactum, pressupõem a aceitação plena e sem reservas dos Termos e Condições de Uso destas Bibliotecas Digitais, disponíveis em https://digitalis.uc.pt/pt-pt/termos. Conforme exposto nos referidos Termos e Condições de Uso, o descarregamento de títulos de acesso restrito requer uma licença válida de autorização devendo o utilizador aceder ao(s) documento(s) a partir de um endereço de IP da instituição detentora da supramencionada licença. Ao utilizador é apenas permitido o descarregamento para uso pessoal, pelo que o emprego do(s) título(s) descarregado(s) para outro fim, designadamente comercial, carece de autorização do respetivo autor ou editor da obra.

Important of Resolution in decision making.

Si la remise à niveau de l’armée s’est accompagnée d’une militarisation des relations extérieures de la Russie, en particulier dans ses rapports avec la communauté euro-atlantique suite à la crise ukrainienne de 2014, la mobilisation de... more

Si la remise à niveau de l’armée s’est accompagnée d’une militarisation des relations extérieures de la Russie, en particulier dans ses rapports avec la communauté euro-atlantique suite à la crise ukrainienne de 2014, la mobilisation de l’outil militaire a aussi servi plus globalement l’agenda de puissance souveraine qui se trouve au coeur du projet politique de Vladimir Poutine pour son pays.

The Project on Defense Alternatives Appendix 3. The rise and fall of the Taliban: a note on their strategy and power The Taliban military coalition comprised (i) Taliban members proper (including long-time veterans and new adherents),... more

The Project on Defense Alternatives Appendix 3. The rise and fall of the Taliban: a note on their strategy and power The Taliban military coalition comprised (i) Taliban members proper (including long-time veterans and new adherents), (ii) warlord (former mujahedin) and tribal contingents, (iii) seasonal village conscripts, (iv) foreign forces. • The veteran core of the Taliban may have been no larger than 2,000-3,000 personnel; new (post 1995) adherents may have numbered another 6,000-8,000. • Warlord, tribal, and conscripted indigenous troops probably comprised an additional 20,000-25,000 troops; these troops constituted the soft outer shell of the Taliban coalition, likely to defect or desert under pressure. • Finally, foreign volunteers probably numbered 8-12,000. These included 5-7000 Pakistanis, 1,500-2,000 Chechens and members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and no more than 2-3,000 foreign fighters imported by the Al Qaeda network-mostly Arabs. Among the troops controlled by Al Qaeda only hundreds were likely core Al Qaeda members, distinguished by having signed a bayat or oath of allegiance to the jihad as defined by bin Laden. Among the Taliban adherents, the most important were the veteran cadre from Kandahar and surrounding provinces: these were the glue or the "solder" that held the Taliban coalition together. But the "soldering agent" in their rise to power was momentum, which they gained through their early victories and the promise of a return to peace and order that the Taliban embodied. This mobilized former students of the madrassahs on a broader basis, brought in new recruits, and helped sway Pashtun warlords and tribal leaders to join the coalition. The support of commercial trading interests and Pakistan also was essential to building Taliban power. Reinforcing the power of the Taliban were the foreign volunteers, the largest group being Pakistanis, who served as cannon fodder. Of course, the most important group of foreign fighters were the Afghan Arabs (organized through the al-Qaeda network) who combined dedication, experience, and relative fighting prowess. A3.1 The dilemma of Taliban success The Taliban accomplished what none of their mujahedin predecessors could: the relatively rapid unification of most of Afghanistan. This they did through a combination of (i) religious discipline and fervor, (ii) mobilization of a grassroots constituency (ie. village religious leaders and students) that cut across many divisions of tribe and locality in the Pashtun belt, and (iii) one genuinely popular program plank: the restoration of law and order. Many core Taliban leaders had been young members of the mujahedin militias during the time of the anti-Soviet war-especially the more traditionalist Islamic parties, Harakat-i-Inquilab-i-Islami and Younis Khalis' faction of Hisb-e-Islami. Within these they were distinguished by their religious devotion and training. What gave the Taliban initial organizational and ideological coherence was their common training in a few of the Pakistani madrassas. What shaped their identity as a movement was the experience of the post-Soviet civil war, during which the militias