Epidemics Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

During March 2013-February 24, 2017, annual epidemics of avian influenza A(H7N9) in China resulted in 1,258 avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in humans being reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) by the National Health... more

During March 2013-February 24, 2017, annual epidemics of avian influenza A(H7N9) in China resulted in 1,258 avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in humans being reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China and other regional sources (1). During the first four epidemics, 88% of patients developed pneumonia, 68% were admitted to an intensive care unit, and 41% died (2). Candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) were developed, and vaccine was manufactured based on representative viruses detected after the emergence of A(H7N9) virus in humans in 2013. During the ongoing fifth epidemic (beginning October 1, 2016),* 460 human infections with A(H7N9) virus have been reported, including 453 in mainland China, six associated with travel to mainland China from Hong Kong (four cases), Macao (one) and Taiwan (one), and one in an asymptomatic poultry worker in Macao (1). Although the clinical characteristics and risk factors for human...

Background The seventh reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the equatorial African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began on July 26, 2014, as another large EVD epidemic continued to spread in West Africa.... more

Background The seventh reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the equatorial African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began on July 26, 2014, as another large EVD epidemic continued to spread in West Africa. Simultaneous reports of EVD in equatorial and West Africa raised the question of whether the two outbreaks were linked. Methods We obtained data from patients in the DRC, using the standard World Health Organization clinical-investigation form for viral hemorrhagic fevers. Patients were classified as having suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD or a non-EVD illness. Blood samples were obtained for polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnosis, viral isolation, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. Results The outbreak began in Inkanamongo village in the vicinity of Boende town in Équateur province and has been confined to that province. A total of 69 suspected, probable, or confirmed cases were reported between July 26 and October 7, 2014, including 8 cases among health care workers, with 49 deaths. As of October 7, there have been approximately six generations of cases of EVD since the outbreak began. The reported weekly case incidence peaked in the weeks of August 17 and 24 and has since fallen sharply. Genome sequencing revealed Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire species) as the cause of this outbreak. A coding-complete genome sequence of EBOV that was isolated during this outbreak showed 99.2% identity with the most closely related variant from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit in the DRC and 96.8% identity to EBOV variants that are currently circulating in West Africa. Conclusions The current EVD outbreak in the DRC has clinical and epidemiologic characteristics that are similar to those of previous EVD outbreaks in equatorial Africa. The causal agent is a local EBOV variant, and this outbreak has a zoonotic origin different from that in the 2014 epidemic in West Africa.

is credited with the discovery of Chagas disease because of his 1909 published findings of the Trypanosoma cruzi parasite isolated in the blood of a Brazilian patient [1]. Following his discovery, reports of Chagas disease from across... more

is credited with the discovery of Chagas disease because of his 1909 published findings of the Trypanosoma cruzi parasite isolated in the blood of a Brazilian patient [1]. Following his discovery, reports of Chagas disease from across Latin America were published, classifying these countries as endemic with continual transmission occurring [2]. The United States has long been considered a non-endemic country due to the opinion that transmission between local vector populations and humans is non-existent or infrequent [3]. We recently published an extensive review with published reports of routine human exposure to nocturnal Triatominae vector bites and continual reports of autochthonous transmission to Texas locals over the past 60 years [4]. In the midst of performing this historical literature review, we came across a reference to the original source of the term "kissing bug." Accessing the historical archives that were available online for five different urban newspapers, we searched for newspaper articles that included the key words "kissing bug" and were published between January 1, 1899, and December 31, 1899. What we unearthed was an unexpected "outbreak" of kissing bug assaults that were reported in newspapers across the nation. Ten years before Carlos Chagas described Chagas disease (in 1909), the US experienced a multi-city hysteria caused by the routine, nightly bites of the "kissing bug" that resulted in numerous hospitalizations and even a few deaths. On Tuesday, June 20, 1899, The Washington Post published the first article describing "the bite of a strange bug" [5]. Reporters noted "several victims.. .woke up to find both eyes nearly closed by the swelling.. .the matter is beginning to interest physicians" [5]. During the early days of the epidemic, no one had seen the insect, but only reported that it struck during the night without any initial pain. The afflicted victim would awake in the morning with swelling mostly of the eyelid and lips, and occasionally on the hand, shoulder, or arm [5-9]. Swelling typically subsided within 48 to 72 hours and was accompanied, on occasion, by fever and/or symptoms that resembled poisoning [10-12]. Sadly, several fatalities were reported throughout the continuing epidemic, with one death certificate specifically stating "chief and determining cause of death-sting of a kissing bug" [11,13-16]. Between June and July of 1899, reports of kissing bug victims were rampant across the continental US (Fig 1). More than sixty newspaper articles were published that referenced over 100 cases, with The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Atlanta Constitution, the Boston Daily Globe, and the Chicago Daily Tribune newspapers publishing the majority of the relevant articles. (Of notable interest, patients' names, ages, and residential addresses were published in the newspaper alongside their accounts.) The bug responsible for these attacks was anecdotally referred to as the "kissing bug," "Hobson bug," and "Dorsey Foultz bug" [17]. Despite the ambiguous nature of the newly emerging epidemic, early reports from local entomologists

In May 2005, an epidemic of the cestode Triaenophorus crassus occurred in the Salvelinus umbla population of Lake Grundlsee, an oligotrophic Austrian Alpine Lake. Based on catches with a standardized multi-mesh gillnet survey 53% of S.... more

In May 2005, an epidemic of the cestode Triaenophorus crassus occurred in the Salvelinus umbla population of Lake Grundlsee, an oligotrophic Austrian Alpine Lake. Based on catches with a standardized multi-mesh gillnet survey 53% of S. umbla were infected with up to 17 cysts of T. crassus per fish. This is the first documented record of an epidemic of this tapeworm in S. umbla.

Recent work has shown that different theoretical approaches to the dynamics of the susceptible-infectedsusceptible (SIS) model for epidemics lead to qualitatively different estimates for the position of the epidemic threshold in networks.... more

Recent work has shown that different theoretical approaches to the dynamics of the susceptible-infectedsusceptible (SIS) model for epidemics lead to qualitatively different estimates for the position of the epidemic threshold in networks. Here we present large-scale numerical simulations of the SIS dynamics on various types of networks, allowing the precise determination of the effective threshold for systems of finite size N . We compare quantitatively the numerical thresholds with theoretical predictions of the heterogeneous mean-field theory and of the quenched mean-field theory. We show that the latter is in general more accurate, scaling with N with the correct exponent, but often failing to capture the correct prefactor.

We examined the consequences of being exposed to an outbreak of the Norwalk virus at a small university. Data from 422 undergraduates supported a model in which the experience of symptoms and perceptions of the university's response to... more

We examined the consequences of being exposed to an outbreak of the Norwalk virus at a small university. Data from 422 undergraduates supported a model in which the experience of symptoms and perceptions of the university's response to the outbreak predicted fear of future contamination. In turn, fear predicted strain and enhanced hygiene practices. Results are consistent with a model of disease outbreak as a traumatic stressor, and implications for organizations dealing with disease outbreaks are discussed.

Background The prevalence of diabetes is increasing in young adults in Asia, but little is known about metabolic control or the burden of associated complications in this population. We assessed the prevalence of young-onset versus... more

Background The prevalence of diabetes is increasing in young adults in Asia, but little is known about metabolic control or the burden of associated complications in this population. We assessed the prevalence of young-onset versus late-onset type 2 diabetes, and associated risk factors and complication burdens, in the Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) cohort.

Obesity is a chronic and endemic disease in developed countries, there is an inverse relationship between the socio-economic level and the prevalence of this disease. Their costs are responsible from 2 to 7% of the total health costs. The... more

Obesity is a chronic and endemic disease in developed countries, there is an inverse relationship between the socio-economic level and the prevalence of this disease. Their costs are responsible from 2 to 7% of the total health costs. The prevalence of obesity in the world is so high that the World Health Organization considered this disease as the global epidemic of the XXI century. In Portugal it's estimated that around 16.5% of the population aged over 18 years, has obesity, and due to the morbidity and mortality associated with this pathology, this constitutes a serious public health issue. There are several ancient references to obesity and its consequences, with descriptions of different therapeutic attitudes. But only in 1965 the term bariatric was introduced and consequently the term bariatric surgery. Mason, the father of bariatric surgery, started its history in 1966. Several surgical techniques were subsequently developed, but currently the most used are the gastric b...

Ukraine has one of the largest HIV epidemics in Europe, historically driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). The epidemic showed signs of stabilization in 2012, but the recent war in eastern Ukraine may be reigniting virus spread. We... more

Ukraine has one of the largest HIV epidemics in Europe, historically driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). The epidemic showed signs of stabilization in 2012, but the recent war in eastern Ukraine may be reigniting virus spread. We investigated the movement of HIV-infected people within Ukraine before and during the conflict. We analyzed HIV-1 subtype-A pol nucleotide sequences sampled during 2012-2015 from 427 patients of 24 regional AIDS centers and used phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct virus movement among different locations in Ukraine. We then tested for correlations between reported PWID behaviors and reconstructed patterns of virus spread. Our analyses suggest that Donetsk and Lugansk, two cities not controlled by the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine, were significant exporters of the virus to the rest of the country. Additional analyses showed that viral dissemination within the country changed after 2013. Spearman correlation analysis showed that incoming ...

Although not strictly a highlands province, Morobe encompasses large highlands areas, the most important being Aseki, Menyamya and Wau-Bulolo. A series of rapid malaria surveys conducted in both the wet and dry seasons found malaria to be... more

Although not strictly a highlands province, Morobe encompasses large highlands areas, the most important being Aseki, Menyamya and Wau-Bulolo. A series of rapid malaria surveys conducted in both the wet and dry seasons found malaria to be clearly endemic in areas below 1400 m in Menyamya and Wau-Bulolo, with overall prevalence rates in the wet season (25.5%, range: 9.1%-39.2%) greatly exceeding those in the dry season (8.3%, range: 2.4%-22.8%; p <0.001). In the wet season surveys Plasmodium falciparum was the clearly predominant species, accounting for 63% of all infections. P. vivax increased in frequency in the dry season (from 27% to 46%, p <0.001), while P. falciparum and P. malariae decreased. In line with past surveys a low prevalence of malaria was found in the Aseki area. Malaria was found to be the main source of febrile illness in the wet season with at least 60% of measured or reported fever associated with parasitaemia. Other causes of febrile illness dominated in the dry. In villages with parasite prevalence rates <20% mean haemoglobin levels and prevalence of severe anaemia were strongly correlated with overall parasite prevalence. In addition concurrent malarial infections were associated with a strong reduction of individual haemoglobin levels (-1.2 g/dl) and there was increased risk of moderate-to-severe anaemia with concurrent malaria. Malarial infections are thus the most significant cause of febrile illness and anaemia in the highlands fringe populations in Morobe. As a consequence all villages below 1500-1600 m in Morobe Province should be included in malaria control activities.

In this paper, we present algorithms to find near-optimal sets of epidemic spreaders in complex networks. We extend the notion of local-centrality, a centrality measure previously shown to correspond with a node's ability to spread an... more

In this paper, we present algorithms to find near-optimal sets of epidemic spreaders in complex networks. We extend the notion of local-centrality, a centrality measure previously shown to correspond with a node's ability to spread an epidemic, to sets of nodes by introducing combinatorial local centrality. Though we prove that finding a set of nodes that maximizes this new measure is NP-hard, good approximations are available. We show that a strictly greedy approach obtains the best approximation ratio unless P = NP and then formulate a modified version of this approach that leverages qualities of the network to achieve a faster runtime while maintaining this theoretical guarantee. We perform an experimental evaluation on samples from several different network structures which demonstrate that our algorithm maximizes combinatorial local centrality and consistently chooses the most effective set of nodes to spread infection under the SIR model, relative to selecting the top nodes using many common centrality measures. We also demonstrate that the optimized algorithm we develop scales effectively.

On October 6, 2017, an outbreak of cholera was declared in Zambia after laboratory confirmation of Vibrio cholerae O1, biotype El Tor, serotype Ogawa, from stool specimens from two patients with acute watery diarrhea. The two patients had... more

On October 6, 2017, an outbreak of cholera was declared in Zambia after laboratory confirmation of Vibrio cholerae O1, biotype El Tor, serotype Ogawa, from stool specimens from two patients with acute watery diarrhea. The two patients had gone to a clinic in Lusaka, the capital city, on October 4. Cholera cases increased rapidly, from several hundred cases in early December 2017 to approximately 2,000 by early January 2018 (Figure). In collaboration with partners, the Zambia Ministry of Health (MoH) launched a multifaceted public health response that included increased chlorination of the Lusaka municipal water supply, provision of emergency water supplies, water quality monitoring and testing, enhanced surveillance, epidemiologic investigations, a cholera vaccination campaign, aggressive case management and health care worker training, and laboratory testing of clinical samples. In late December 2017, a number of water-related preventive actions were initiated, including increasing...

Olginate, 9 dicembre 1576. È una fredda mattina di una bella domenica di fine autunno. Il cielo è limpido e terso, mentre il sole inizia ad illuminare il paese spuntando dietro il crinale delle montagne e la sua luce mette man mano in... more

Olginate, 9 dicembre 1576. È una fredda mattina di una bella domenica di fine autunno. Il cielo è limpido e terso, mentre il sole inizia ad illuminare il paese spuntando dietro il crinale delle montagne e la sua luce mette man mano in risalto, in un gioco di chiaroscuri, i tetti di pietra e di paglia delle case ed il fumo che esce dai comignoli.

Kaygusuz Abdal Menakıbnamesi’nde veba ordularının komutanı olduğu yazılan Pir Abdal Musa Sultan, dergahı Antalya Elmalı’da bulunan, 14. Yüzyılda yaşadığı söylenen bir Bektaşi Evliyasıdır. Abdal Musa Sultan Dersim bölgesinde karşımıza,... more

ABSTRACT: Since the beginning of time, microorganisms have been in existence. With time, new pathogens have emerged as a result of complex interplay of anthropogenic and natural factors like, human migration, shifts in weather pattern,... more

ABSTRACT: Since the beginning of time, microorganisms have been in existence. With time, new pathogens have emerged as a result of complex interplay of anthropogenic and natural factors like, human migration, shifts in weather pattern, genetic shuffling of the organisms themselves and more which have been discussed in detail. This review article focuses solely on emerging and re-emerging viruses: Chikungunya, Coronavirus, Dengue, Ebola, Hepatitis C, Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV), Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Human Papilloma Virus (HPV), Influenza and Zika; and the latest progresses made in finding effective antiviral drugs via drug repurposing as we know this approach outplays de novo production significantly with respect to time and money. In a time where new diseases are being reported once every year, drug repurposing will certainly come in handy in developing antiviral therapeutics promptly. Moreover, the article also discusses major challenges in drug repurposing from finding a patent, dealing with all relevant governing frameworks, to careful and safe handling of viruses, these are some challenges faced by drug repurposing, to name a few. Additionally, the study elaborates on the mechanisms of actions of these drugs as well as the targets whilst including recent and well-known incidences of deadly, viral outbreaks.

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,... more

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects etc). These models assign diffusion processes to the time-varying parameters, and our inferential procedure is based on a suitably adjusted adaptive particle MCMC algorithm. The performance of the proposed computational methods is validated on simulated data and the adopted model is applied to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in England. In addition to estimating the effective contact rate trajectories, the methodology is applied in real time to provide evidence in related public health decisions. Diffusion driven SEIR-type models with age structure are also introduced.

Background: This study aims to understand the correlates of anal sex practices among female sex workers (FSWs) and examine the association of anal sex with HIV-related sexual risk factors in Andhra Pradesh, India. Methods: A... more

Background: This study aims to understand the correlates of anal sex practices among female sex workers (FSWs) and examine the association of anal sex with HIV-related sexual risk factors in Andhra Pradesh, India. Methods: A cross-sectional behavioural survey was conducted in 2011 among 795 FSWs aged 18 years or older. Probability-based cluster sampling was used to select respondents from sex work hotspots. Results: One-quarter (23%) of FSWs had practiced anal sex in the last year. The odds of practicing anal sex were higher among FSWs aged 35 years or more than in those aged less than 25 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.05, P < 0.05), in those formerly married compared to those currently married (AOR: 1.88, P < 0.01), in those having an income only from sex work compared to those having additional sources of income (AOR: 1.54, P < 0.05), those reporting heavy alcohol consumption compared to those who did not (AOR: 2.80, P < 0.01) and those who experienced violence compared to those who had not (AOR: 2.80, P < 0.01). FSWs practicing anal sex were more likely to experience sexually transmissible infection (STI) related symptoms than those practicing only vaginal sex. There was no association between anal sex practice and condom use. Conclusions: Anal sex is associated with STI symptoms, a factor for HIV risk. HIV intervention programmes need to educate FSWs about the risks associated with anal sex.

Background. The dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3) Indian subcontinent strain emerged in Puerto Rico in 1998 after a 21-year absence. The rapid expansion of DENV-3 on the island correlated with the withdrawal of the other serotypes for 7... more

Background. The dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3) Indian subcontinent strain emerged in Puerto Rico in 1998 after a 21-year absence. The rapid expansion of DENV-3 on the island correlated with the withdrawal of the other serotypes for 7 years. The DENV-3 prevalence declined in 2008 and remains undetected.

Abortion in ruminants is a major cause of economic loss worldwide, and the management and control of outbreaks is important in limiting their spread, and in preventing zoonotic infections. Given that rapid and accurate laboratory... more

Abortion in ruminants is a major cause of economic loss worldwide, and the management and control of outbreaks is important in limiting their spread, and in preventing zoonotic infections. Given that rapid and accurate laboratory diagnosis is central to controlling abortion outbreaks, the submission of tissue samples to laboratories offering the most appropriate tests is essential. Direct antigen and/or DNA detection methods are the currently preferred methods of reaching an aetiological diagnosis, and ideally these results are confirmed by the demonstration of corresponding macroscopic and/or histopathological lesions in the fetus and/or the placenta. However, the costs of laboratory examinations may be considerable and, even under optimal conditions, the percentage of aetiological diagnoses reached can be relatively low. This review focuses on the most commonly occurring and important abortifacient pathogens of ruminant species in Europe highlighting their epizootic and zoonotic potential. The performance characteristics of the various diagnostic methods used, including their specific advantages and limitations, are discussed.

One key factor that appears to be crucial in the rejection of quarantines, isolation and other social controls during epidemic outbreaks is trust—or rather distrust. Much like news reporting and social media, popular culture such as... more

One key factor that appears to be crucial in the rejection of quarantines, isolation and other social controls during epidemic outbreaks is trust—or rather distrust. Much like news reporting and social media, popular culture such as fictional novels, television shows and films can influence people’s trust, especially given that the information provided about an epidemic disease is sometimes seen as grounded in ‘scientific fact’ by societies. As well as providing information on the ‘correct science’ behind disease transmission, spread and illness in films and literature, popular culture can also inform societies about how to feel and how to react during epidemics—that is to say create some expectations about the kinds of societal responses that could potentially occur. In this article we closely analyse three films that centre around epidemic diseases—Contagion (Steven Soderbergh, 2011), Blindness (Fernando Meirelles, 2008) and The Painted Veil (John Curran, 2006)—in order to highlight three categories of distrust that have recently been identified and conceptualised in broader discussions regarding trust and health: institutional, social and interpersonal. These films raise two key issues about trust and social responses during epidemics. First, while certain aspects of trust are badly diminished during epidemic disease outbreaks, epidemics can also interact with pre-existing structural inequalities within society—based on race, gender or wealth—to create mixed outcomes of discord, prejudice and fear that coexist with new forms of cohesion. Second, the breakdown in trust seen at certain levels during epidemics, such as at the institutional level between communities and authorities or elites, might be mediated or negotiated, perhaps even compensated for, by heightened solidity of trust at the social level, within or between communities.

This article draws on Charles Rosenberg's classic essay "What Is an Epidemic?" (1989) to reflect on the complex narrative structures and temporalities of epidemics as they are experienced and storied. We begin with an analysis of... more

This article draws on Charles Rosenberg's classic essay "What Is an Epidemic?" (1989) to reflect on the complex narrative structures and temporalities of epidemics as they are experienced and storied. We begin with an analysis of Rosenberg's use of Albert Camus's The Plague and a discussion of how epidemics have been modeled in literature and in epidemiology concomitantly. Then, we argue that Charles Rosenberg's characterization of epidemics as events bounded in time that display narrative and epidemiological purity fails to account for the reinvention of life within health crises. Adopting the ecological, archaeological, and anthropological perspectives developed within African studies enriches the range of available plots, roles, and temporal sequences and ultimately transforms our way of depicting epidemics. Instead of events oriented toward their own closure, epidemics might be approached as unsettling, seemingly endless periods during which life has to be recomposed.

After a brief overview of the history of arbovirus epidemics in the Indian Ocean in XIXth and XXth centuries, a full evaluation of the chikungunya epidemic that occurred in 2005-2006 is provided including both lessons learned and future... more

After a brief overview of the history of arbovirus epidemics in the Indian Ocean in XIXth and XXth centuries, a full evaluation of the chikungunya epidemic that occurred in 2005-2006 is provided including both lessons learned and future perspectives. On the positive side, the epidemic has allowed improvement of clinical and pathophysiological knowledge, epidemiological surveillance, vector control, awareness of entomology, avenues for research, and understanding of economic and societal repercussions. On the negative side, the epidemic revealed the limitations of a health care system in an island setting, need for an effective sanitary policy, low public-spiritedness, poor diffusion and understanding of public health announcements, endemization of chikungunya virus in the Indian Ocean, absence of vaccine, and global spread of tropical disease. Discussion of perspectives for future arbovirus disease outbreaks in the Indian Ocean is set against the background of climatic change, unequ...

Sophocles, one of the most noted playwrights of the ancient world, wrote the tragedy Oedipus Rex in the first half of the decade 430–420 bc. A lethal plague is described in this drama. We adopted a critical approach to Oedipus Rex in... more

Sophocles, one of the most noted playwrights of the ancient world, wrote the tragedy Oedipus Rex in the first half of the decade 430–420 bc. A lethal plague is described in this drama. We adopted a critical approach to Oedipus Rex in analyzing the literary description of the disease, unraveling its clinical features, and defining a possible underlying cause. Our goals were to clarify whether the plague described in Oedipus Rex reflects an actual historical event; to compare it with the plague of Athens, which was described by Thucydides as occurring around the same time Sophocles wrote; and to propose a likely causative pathogen. A critical reading of Oedipus Rex and a comparison with Thucydides’ history, as well as a systematic review of historical data, strongly suggests that this epidemic was an actual event, possibly caused by Brucella abortus.

Awaking in quarantine one Sunday morning, American author Nathaniel P. Willis speaks, surprisingly, of his contentedness and the charming company he keeps: "We are all out of doors, and my companions have brought down their mattresses,... more

Awaking in quarantine one Sunday morning, American author Nathaniel P. Willis speaks, surprisingly, of his contentedness and the charming company he keeps: "We are all out of doors, and my companions have brought down their mattresses, and are lying along the shade of the east wall, talking quietly and pleasantly; the usual sounds of the workmen on the quays of the town are still, our harbor-guard lies asleep in his boat, the yellow flag of the lazaretto clings to the staff, everything about us breathes tranquility. Prisoner as I am, I would not stir willingly to-day." 1 Unexpected tranquility within the confines of quarantine proves an intriguing-and understudied-phenomenon within the annals of nineteenth-century travel writing. This essay examines the literary and political consequences of Willis's story and other narratives of healthy individuals kept in quarantine. 2 Willis's account appeared in The New-York Mirror in August 1832 as a part of an ongoing series regarding his travel abroad-for which he was paid 10perletterchroniclinghisexperiencesandreimbursed10 per letter chronicling his experiences and reimbursed 10perletterchroniclinghisexperiencesandreimbursed500 for expenses. 3 An unprecedented writing gig, these letters (collectively referred to as "First Impressions of Europe") represented a new approach to publishing in which a single periodical paid a journalist to send copy back to the United States. 4 The letter containing the description of Willis's quarantine takes up approximately two pages in the Mirror; it begins with his arrival in Avignon, details his attempts to avoid a stay in quarantine, and concludes with a nearly full-page narrative of life in the Villa Franca lazaretto (a prison-like building used to hold both the sick and the quarantined).

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using... more

Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R₀, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool for gauging the extent of environmental effects on disease emergence. The method involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R₀. We illustrate the method with three applications for bluetongue virus in the Netherlands: 1) a simple R₀ map for the situation in September 2006, 2) species-specific R₀ maps based on satellite-data derived predictions, and 3) monthly R₀ maps throughout the year. These applications ought to be considered as a proof-of-principle and illustrations of the methods described, rather than as ready-to-use risk maps. Altogether, this is a first step towards an integrative method to predict risk of establishment of diseases based on mathematical modelling combined with a geographic information system that may comprise climatic variables, landscape features, land use, and other relevant factors determining the risk of establishment for bluetongue as well as of other emerging vector-borne diseases.

In September 2000, the self-styled "anthropological journalist" Patrick Tierney began to make public his work claiming that the Yanomamö people of South America had been actively-indeed brutally-harmed by the sociobiological... more

In September 2000, the self-styled "anthropological journalist" Patrick Tierney began to make public his work claiming that the Yanomamö people of South America had been actively-indeed brutally-harmed by the sociobiological anthropologist Napoleon Chagnon and the geneticist-physician James Neel. Following a florid summary of Tierney's claims by the anthropologists Terence Turner and Leslie Sponsel, the American Anthropological Association (AAA) saw fit to take Tierney's claims seriously by conducting a major investigation into the matter. This paper focuses on the AAA's problematic actions in this case but also provides previously unpublished information on Tierney's falsehoods. The work presented is based on a year of research by a historian of medicine and science. The author intends the work to function as a cautionary tale to scholarly associations, which have the challenging duty of protecting scholarship and scholars from baseless and sensationalistic charges in the era of the Internet and twenty-four-hour news cycles.

Many approaches have recently been proposed to model the spread of epidemics on networks. For instance, the Susceptible/Infected/Recovered (SIR) compartmental model has successfully been applied to different types of diseases that spread... more

Many approaches have recently been proposed to model the spread of epidemics on networks. For instance, the Susceptible/Infected/Recovered (SIR) compartmental model has successfully been applied to different types of diseases that spread out among humans and animals. When this model is applied on a contact network, the centrality characteristics of the network plays an important role in the spreading process. However, current approaches only consider an aggregate representation of the network structure, which can result in inaccurate analysis. In this paper, we propose a new individual-based SIR approach, which considers the whole description of the network structure. The individual-based approach is built on a continuous time Markov chain, and it is capable of evaluating the state probability for every individual in the network. Through mathematical analysis, we rigorously confirm the existence of an epidemic threshold below which an epidemic does not propagate in the network. We also show that the epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the maximum eigenvalue of the network. Additionally, we study the role of the whole spectrum of the network, and determine the relationship between the maximum number of infected individuals and the set of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. To validate our approach, we analytically study the deviation with respect to the continuous time Markov chain model, and we show that the new approach is accurate for a large range of infection strength. Furthermore, we compare the new approach with the well-known heterogeneous mean field approach in the literature. Ultimately, we support our theoretical results through extensive numerical evaluations and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing... more

Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing number of individuals. This paper describes age and regional differences in dengue's clinical presentation and associated risk of hospitalization based on more than 5 million cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 2000-2014. We performed a retrospective analysis of ∼5,450,000 dengue cases, relating clinical manifestations and the risk of hospitalization to age, gender, previous infection by dengue, dengue virus serotype, years of formal education, delay to first attendance and the occurrence of dengue during outbreaks and in different Brazilian regions. Complicated forms of dengue occurred more frequently among those younger than 10 years (3.12% vs 1.92%) and those with dengue virus 2 infection (7.65% vs 2.42%), with a delay to f...

HIV epidemics spread rapidly through Asian sex work networks two decades ago under conditions of high vulnerability, low condom use, intact male foreskins and ulcerative STIs. Experiences implementing interventions to prevent transmission... more

HIV epidemics spread rapidly through Asian sex work networks two decades ago under conditions of high vulnerability, low condom use, intact male foreskins and ulcerative STIs. Experiences implementing interventions to prevent transmission in sex work in ten Asian countries were reviewed. All report increasing condom use trends in sex work. In the seven countries where condom use exceeds 80%, surveillance and other data indicate declining HIV trends or low and stable HIV prevalence with declining STI trends. All four countries with national-level HIV declines among sex workers have also documented significant HIV declines in the general population. While all interventions in sex work included outreach, condom programing and STI services, the largest declines were found in countries that implemented structural interventions on a large scale. Thailand and Cambodia, having controlled transmission early, are closest to providing universal access to HIV care, support and treatment and are exploring HIV elimination strategies.

T. Cathey, MS r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r

The aim of this study is to analyze the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of persons diagnosed with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in Nasarawa Eggon Local Government... more

The aim of this study is to analyze the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of persons diagnosed with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in Nasarawa Eggon Local Government Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Data for this paper covering the period 1998 to 2006 were obtained from the records of the Nasarawa Eggon General Hospital. The data were analyzed using SPSS statistical computer package. A total of 340 people were diagnosed with HIV/AIDS during the period understudy. The results revealed that 59.4% of the HIV/AIDS positive persons were within the age group 20-34 years (Mean age = 29.9; SD = 10.3). The chi-square (P 2 ) test revealed that prevalence of HIV/AIDS varied significantly by age (P 2 = 494.73, df = 48, p = 0.001). Prevalence rate by sex revealed that more females (51.5%) than males (48.5%) were infected and that majority were married (60.3%). A Box and Whiskers plot revealed that the age distribution of the females appeared uniform than that of the males. The analysis of the data by religion revealed that Muslims and Christians constituted 53.6% and 43.2% of those diagnosed with HIV/AIDS respectively. Farmers (16.8%) were the most infected among males while for females; housewives were the most infected with 23.2%. Given the relatively high prevalence of HIV/AIDS among those in married union, the paper suggested the need to refocus the strategies of curbing with the prevalence rates among those in marital union.

The Ethiopian Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (EFELTP) is a comprehensive two-year competency-based training and service program designed to build sustainable public health expertise and capacity. Established in 2009,... more

The Ethiopian Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (EFELTP) is a comprehensive two-year competency-based training and service program designed to build sustainable public health expertise and capacity. Established in 2009, the program is a partnership between the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health, the Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute, Addis Ababa University School of Public Health, the Ethiopian Public Health Association and the US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. Residents of the program spend about 25% of their time undergoing didactic training and the 75% in the field working at program field bases established with the MOH and Regional Health Bureaus investigating disease outbreaks, improving disease surveillance, responding to public health emergencies, using health data to make recommendations and undertaking other field Epidemiology related activities on setting health policy. Residents from the first 2 cohorts of the program have co...

Recent studies argue that major crises can have long lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in... more

Recent studies argue that major crises can have long lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so-called “Spanish Flu”. This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the general Social Survey (GSS), we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals’ social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the US. As trust is a crucial factor for long-term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.

Films illustrate 2 ways that epidemics can affect societies: fear leading to a breakdown in sociability and fear stimulating preservation of tightly held social norms. The first response is often informed by concern over perceived moral... more

Films illustrate 2 ways that epidemics can affect societies: fear leading to a breakdown in sociability and fear stimulating preservation of tightly held social norms. The first response is often informed by concern over perceived moral failings within society, the second response by the application of arbitrary or excessive controls from outside the community.

There is great divergence in provincial government health expenditures in China. Real per capita provincial government health expenditures (GHE) over the period 2002-2006 are examined using panel regression analysis. Key determinants of... more

There is great divergence in provincial government health expenditures in China. Real per capita provincial government health expenditures (GHE) over the period 2002-2006 are examined using panel regression analysis. Key determinants of real per capita provincial GHE are real provincial per capita general budget revenue, real provincial per capita transfers from the central government, the proportion of provincial population under age 15, urban employee basic health insurance coverage, and proportion of urban population. Roughly equal and relatively low elasticities of budget revenue and transfers imply that the GHE is a necessity rather than a luxury good, and transfers have yet to become efficient instruments for the fair allocation of health resources by policy makers. Moreover, severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak has increased the GHE, but we find no statistical evidence that provincial GHE have fluctuated according to the public health status.

Purpose Holistic approaches to public health such as ‘One Health’ emphasize the interconnectedness between people, animals, ecosystems, and epidemic risk, and many advocate for this philosophy to be adopted within disaster risk management... more

Background: Central Asia is culturally and demographically diverse, both between and within its respective countries. That diversity is represented in the range of individual, network, community, and structural risks for female sex... more

Background: Central Asia is culturally and demographically diverse, both between and within its respective countries. That diversity is represented in the range of individual, network, community, and structural risks for female sex workers (FSWs) regionally. FSWs have several risk factors for HIV acquisition and transmission including behavioral, biological, and structural risk factors. Across Central Asia, sexual risks have become conflated with risks associated with injection and non-injection illicit drug use. Methods: Peer-reviewed literature databases and gray literature were searched for articles on sex work in Central Asia. The medial subject heading (MeSH) of "sex work" was cross-referenced with terms associated with

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, and understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics still poses... more

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, and understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics still poses unsolved challenges. Here we studied the three-level relationships between the human disease nephropathia epidemica (NE), its etiological agent Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) and the rodent host of the virus, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). A large and long-term data set (14 years, 2583 human NE cases and 4751 trapped bank voles) indicates that the number of human infections shows both seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations, is influenced by the phase of vole cycle and time of the year, and follows vole abundance with a lag of a few months. Our results suggest that although human hantavirus epidemics are preceded by high sero prevalence in the host population, they may be accurately predicted solely by the population dynamics of the carrier species, even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host populations.

Upon a heavy defeat against the Balkan Alliance formed by Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro, the Ottoman Empire had to leave the Balkan geography, which it had governed for nearly 500 years, in 1913. In 1912, the war that started... more

Upon a heavy defeat against the Balkan Alliance formed by Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro, the Ottoman Empire had to leave the Balkan geography, which it had governed for nearly 500 years, in 1913. In 1912, the war that started in the Balkans in an environment where alliances were formed and tensions increased in Europe caused the attention of the world, especially the European public, to focus on this geography. Journalists who purposed to follow the war went to the capitals of the warring states, especially Istanbul, and presented some news from the front after a while. In addition, military experts, diplomats, and other officials from neutral states followed the war for various missions or as observers. Clyde Sinclair Ford, who was serving as a military doctor with the rank of major commander in the US Army, was one of these people. His travel to Europe due to sick leave in 1912 took a completely different turn with the start of the First Balkan War. He served as the chief surgeon in two wards of the Taşkışla Hospital in Istanbul on behalf of the US Red Cross during the First Balkan War, and he also provided medical service to the Bulgarian army in the Second Balkan War. After returning to the United States, he gave a series of lectures on the Balkan Wars to officers at The Army Service Schools Fort Leavenworth in 1915. In addition to the causes of the Balkan Wars, the development of the war, and the situation of the Ottoman and Bulgarian armies, he conveyed his observations about war injuries and epidemic diseases in these lectures because he was a military doctor and took part in the war. The lectures he gave were published in the same year with the title “The Balkan Wars: Being a Series of Lectures delivered at the Army Service Schools, Fort Leavenworth”. In this present study, a brief biography of Clyde Sinclair Ford is given, the chapters in his work are evaluated, and his medical observations about the war are tried to be explained because he was a military doctor.