Political Demography Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

"Forecasting in Age-structural Time" covers the process and rationale of using the age-structural transition (from data available from the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects) as a means of forecasting the future. It illustrates how and why population age structure is a fairly dependable statistical predictor of social, economic, and political development.

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- Demography, Development Studies, Strategic Foresight, Political Demography
- by Yakov Faitelson
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- Political Demography
- by Richard Cincotta
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- Peace and Conflict Studies, Peacekeeping, Political Demography
- by Richard Cincotta
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- Demography, Comparative Politics, Democracy, Political Demography

All modern governments are concerned with population and its management; they
pursue a variety of policies in order to deal with demographic conditions adequately. One of
the countries that seriously adopted population policies—especially birth control policy—in
the late 20th century is Iran. Different studies stress that the population growth policy in the
first half of the 1980s and the population control policy in the late 1980s and 1990s in Iran
were influenced by the predicament the country found itself in during the war with Iraq and
after the war, as well as the necessity of population management to renew human resources
during the war and perform development and reconstruction plans properly after the war. This
study claims that adopting such policies has not been due to a full understanding of real situations, but largely has been influenced by meta-forces i.e. political and ideological discourses
that governed the country. In fact governing discourses actually determine the policies and
their courses, rather than changes in policy-makers’ understanding of real conditions in the
society. This study indicates that since the Islamic Revolution, different discourses, including Islamic Idealism, Islamic Pragmatism, Islamic realism and Principlism, have governed
Iran; consequently different population policies consistent with these discourses have been
followed. In other words, this study tries to show that discursive attitudes seem to account
more adequately for population policies in Iran than positivistic attitudes.

- by mehdi rezaei and +1
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- Iranian Studies, Political Demography, Population Studies
- by Yakov Faitelson
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- Demography, Israel Studies, Israel/Palestine, Political Demography
- by Richard Cincotta
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- Human Geography, Comparative Politics, Democratization, Democracy

¡ Hola a todos! Aquí seguimos, en la brecha, con vosotros y presentando nuestro séptimo número de la revista. Pues sí, los problemas superados y con muchas ganas de continuar, juntando fi las y cargando sobre el enemigo, todo por el bien... more

- by Arturo Sanchez Sanz
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- Religion, History, Ancient History, Economic History

The Horn of Africa highly contributes to regional and global mobility and Libya assumed a pivotal role for Horn migrants over time. Using the estimates provided by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, the United Nations Refugee Agency, and the International Organization for Migration, I investigate the relationship between Horn migrants’ incidence and prevalence in Libya since the early 90s to understand if they perceive it as a hosting or transit country. Moreover, I analyse how the interconnection between geopolitics and human mobility have affected Horn migrants’ attitudes and status.

- by Valentina Fusari
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- Forced Migration, Political Demography, Horn of Africa, Libya

This chapter focuses on the policies and politics of Arab migration to the
Gulf States in the post-Arab uprisings’ period. It explores the following question: how do political and economic factors interplay in the policymaking by Arab sending states? The chapter puts forward the argument that, despite the common assumption that migration to the Gulf States is chiefly driven by economics, politics plays a major role in Arab migration patterns and policies, at the domestic, regional, and bilateral levels.(...)

- by Francoise De Bel-Air
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- Demography, International Relations, Migration, Irregular Migration

The escape from the 'Malthusian trap' is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.

- by Andrey Korotayev and +1
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- Development Studies, Political Science, Revolutions, Africa

It is not surprising that Mubarak's administration " overlooked " the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking serious measures to mitigate their effect on the poorest layers of the population. Unemployment level (in per cent) was less than in many developed countries of the world and, moreover, was declining, and so were population growth rates. What would be the grounds to expect a full-scale social explosion? Of course, the administration had a sort of reliable information on the presence of certain groups of dissident " bloggers " , but how could one expect that they would be able to inspire to go to the Tahrir any great masses of people? It was even more difficult to figure out that Mubarak's regime would be painfully struck by its own modernization successes of the 1980s, which led to the sharp decline of crude death rate and especially of infant and child mortality in 1975–1990. Without these successes many young Egyptians vehemently demanding Mubarak's resignation (or even death) would have been destined to die in early childhood and simply would not have survived to come out to the Tahrir Square.

- by Andrey Korotayev and +1
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- Demography, Political Science, Egypt, Political Demography

In 2014, an estimated 885,000 Lebanese migrants, (i.e., first-generation, born in Lebanon) resided abroad. Meanwhile, in early 2016, it was said that “Lebanon hosts approximately 1.1 million refugees from Syria which amounts to around one... more

- by Francoise De Bel-Air
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- Migration, Irregular Migration, Lebanon, Labor Migration

Demographic changes associated with the transformation from traditional to advanced economies are the basis for many of today's theories of violent and non-violent protest formation. Both levels of urbanization and the size of the "youth bulge" have shown to be reliable measures for predicting protest events in a country. As these two processes result from modernization, it seems logical to hypothesize that the combined effect of the rise in urbanization and the increase in the youth population, urban youth bulge, would be a more relevant predictor for protests. Our tests on cross-national timeseries data from 1950 to 2010 for 98 countries reveal that the combined effect of the two forces is an important predictor of anti-government protests. It may seem that the role of the urban youth bulge would appear to be an issue of the past as in more recent decades the proportion of the urban youth tends to decline in most countries of the world. However, this factor tends to be very relevant for many developing countries where both youth bulges have been growing for several decades and the general urban population is on the rise.

- by Andrey Korotayev
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- Social Movements, Political Anthropology, Modernization, Urban Studies

Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take
into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical
period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population
ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development.

- by Jack Goldstone and +3
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- History, Demography, Economics, Social Sciences
- by Anat E Leibler
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- Political Demography, Ethnic Classifications

La réalité géopolitique du Maghreb suppose d’analyser l’ensemble de ses composantes démographiques, économiques et politiques, antérieures et postérieures à l’indépendance. La géographie physique et humaine, ainsi que l’histoire contemporaine, fondent indiscutablement une certaine unité maghrébine qui provient d’abord d’une unité ethnique ancienne qui répond à une vision d’un ensemble communautaire souhaité par les pays du Maghreb. Mais l’examen des paramètres géopolitiques révèle une réalité éclatée.

- by Gérard-François DUMONT
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- Religion, Demography, African Studies, International Relations

Our article draws attention to a crucial factor frequently omitted from the global development agenda, namely the explosive population growth inevitably expected in Tropical Africa in the nearest decades as a result of the region's laggardness in fertility transition. Population doubling (or even tripling) in the next decades can seriously undermine the development prospects of Tropical African countries and lead to sociopolitical destabilization or even large-scale violent conflicts with possibly global consequences. Bringing down the population growth rates (mainly through substantially reducing the fertility rates) appears to be crucial for the achievement of the 1977 " Goals for Mankind, " as well as the Millennium Development Goals, and, as we proceed to show, can be most effectively achieved through substantially increasing female secondary education, which, in turn, should be achieved by introducing compulsory secondary education and making it the first-rate development priority.

- by Andrey Korotayev
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- Future Studies, Social Demography, African Studies, World Systems Analysis

La Turquie est membre du Conseil de l’Europe depuis 1950, membre de l’OTAN depuis 1953, associée à l’Union douanière de l’Union européenne depuis 1963, candidate à cette Union depuis 1987, et candidat officiellement reconnu, et bénéficiant en conséquence des avantages de ce statut, à l’Union européenne depuis le 3 octobre 2005. Toutefois, plusieurs années après cette dernière date, la question de sa pleine intégration à l’Union européenne reste ouverte. En effet, avec les précédents pays candidats, jamais les négociations d’adhésion n’ont autant piétiné. La question des relations entre la Turquie et l’Union européenne mérite donc une analyse approfondie. Dans ce dessein, il convient d’abord d’étudier les caractéristiques et les perspectives géodémographiques des deux entités, sachant l’importance de tels paramètres pour la connaissance géopolitique. La spécificité de l’évolution des relations entre la Turquie et l’Union européenne doit ensuite être examinée. Enfin, il conviendra de réfléchir aux logiques géopolitiques possibles dont l’analyse devrait permettre de réfléchir, voire de répondre aux trois termes énoncés : intégration, complémentarité ou divergence.

The objective of the paper is to draw a sketch of UAE’s population and migration dynamics, using the scarce data available from the federal and emirate-level statistical bureaus. In 2010, expatriates in the UAE were estimated to number 7,316,073 persons, twenty times the 1975’s figure of 356,343. Foreign nationals thus made up 88.5 per cent of the country’s total population; most were believed to come from Asia and especially from India. In the employed population, foreign nationals accounted for an even larger share (96 per cent of the Dubai’s employed population in 2011). Non-Emiratis comprised 40 per cent of the UAE’s public sector’s workforce in 2013, but as much as 99.5 per cent of those employed in the private sector. Unlike in other GCC states, a quarter of working expatriates were in managerial posts, employed across all activities’ spectrum. Expatriates’ demographic expansion mounted during the 2000s, a period of spectacular economic growth fuelled by soaring oil prices. Since 2008’s financial downturn, however, the economy recovered and the hiring of foreign workers has resumed, stimulated by large-scale projects such as Dubai’s Expo 2020. Nonetheless, reforms in immigration policies are now undertaken, fuelled by security concerns and pressures from human rights’ protection bodies. The reality of some expatriates’ settlement is also witnessed in numbers (expatriate children aged 0-14 outnumbered Emirati
children already in 2005), while mixed marriages are acknowledged in policies: some naturalisations of children of Emirati mothers have been performed since 2011.

Critical and uncritical scholars alike tend to treat Ottoman Armenians as a cohesive group. This article aims to disrupt that way of thinking. After first presenting a critique of the millet system paradigm popular in the fields of Ottoman studies and Armenian studies, this article turns its attention to historiographic debates over late Ottoman demographic data—a topic that has produced considerable tension between these fields. To help bring these historiographies together and to dispel the monolith of “the Armenians,” the succeeding pages use the c. 1907 imperial census as a case study of cooperation between the quintessential Ottoman-Armenian institution—the Armenian Apostolic Patriarchate of Istanbul—and the Ottoman Ministry of the Interior. This example demonstrates the interdependence between these two bodies and ultimately shows that, while some Armenians were victims and opponents of the late Ottoman state, others were very much entrenched in it.

- by Daniel Ohanian
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- Demography, Statistics, Ottoman History, Armenian Studies

Relatywne osłabienie USA stworzyło możliwości dla innych mocarstw do lepszego zabezpieczenia swych interesów w systemie międzynarodowym. Zmiana ta jest też szansą dla Rosji, a jej zdolność do osiągnięcia wielu swoich celów zależy od postawy Polski. Osłabianie kraju przeciwnika psychologicznymi i demograficznymi narzędziami destabilizacji należy do narzędzi współczesnych koncepcji wojennych. Dla osiągnięcia swoich celów Rosja w praktyce stosuje koncepcję wojny hybrydowej. Wykorzystanie migracji dla osiągnięcia celów politycznych jest zjawiskiem znanym w historii. Kryzys migracyjny roku 2015 osłabił spójność Unii Europejskiej, co wskazuje na ryzyka w przypadku ew. masowych migracji przymusowych z Ukrainy do Polski, jednakże takie migracje mogłyby nieść ze sobą również istotne korzyści. Istnieje zasadnicza różnica między profilem potencjalnego masowego migranta do Polski a azylanta w Unii Europejskiej w roku 2015. Co więcej, aktualnie szanse rozwojowe Polski w istotnej mierze hamuje brak pracowników i rosnące koszty pracy. Polska może stać się wkrótce gospodarką o jednym z największych niedoborów pracowników w Europie. Niedobory występują już przy obecnej strukturze wieku, przyszłe struktury wieku wskazują na konieczność zdecydowanych działań. Wejście potencjalnych uchodźców z Ukrainy na polski rynek pracy, w system edukacji i w lokalne społeczności jest korzystne dla wszystkich stron. Osiągnięciu korzyści ekonomicznych i społecznych i zapobieżeniu ryzkom z zakresu bezpieczeństwa sprzyjać mogą działania oparte o kilka zasad. System relokacji masowych migracji w Polsce może wzorować się na kluczu i doświadczeniach Niemiec. Obok podobieństw, możliwy klucz dla Polski zakłada istotne różnice, głównie w zakresie traktowania powiatów jako podstawowej jednostki terytorialnej. Dla osiągnięcia odpowiednich efektów istotna jest realizacja szeregu działań przygotowawczych i wspierających.

- by Mateusz Łakomy
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- Demography, Geopolitics, Forced Migration, Political Demography

The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the 'long 16 th century' was transformed into the global World System comprised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Central Asian (including Afghanistan and Pakistan), the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. We suggest considering these four zones as a single Afrasian macrozone of instability. We show that this zone correlates rather closely with the zone of traditional prevalence of the parallel cousin marriage, as well as with the zone of very low female labor force participation rate, and the territory of the Umayyad Califate. The article demonstrates that this correlation is not coincidental and also discusses the factors and mechanisms that have produced it.

As of 2015, the population of Turkey stood at 78,741,053, of whom 1,592,437 were, according to Turkish statistics, migrants (born abroad). If we add to this figure the three million refugees registered in the country (of whom about 2.7 million are from Syria), a minimal estimate of the share of the foreign-born immigrants in Turkey’s total population as of December 2015 would be 5.6 percent.

- by Francoise De Bel-Air
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- Social Demography, Demography, Migration, Irregular Migration

Tout État s’appuie sur deux piliers fondamentaux : le territoire sur lequel il exerce sa souveraineté et sa population. C’est pourquoi depuis toujours, les États, quelle que soit leur forme institutionnelle, se sont intéressés à la population, c’est-à-dire au nombre, à la composition par âge et par sexe et à la répartition géographique des habitants de leur territoire avec, souvent, l’idée d’influencer les évolutions démographiques par des poli-tiques de population. Plus récemment, le processus de « diasporisation » a conduit les États à s’intéresser aussi à des personnes vivant à l’étranger mais issues, elles-mêmes ou leurs ascendants, de leur territoire.
[Each State is based on two fundamental pillars: the territory in which it exercises its sovereignty and its people. This is why historically, states, whatever their institutional form, became interested in the population, that is to say, the number, composition by age and gender and geographic distribution of the inhabitants of their territory, often with the idea of influencing demographic trends by population policies. More recently, the process of "diasporization" led States to also be of interest to people living abroad but exits, they or their ancestors, their territory.]

- by Gérard-François DUMONT
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- Demography, Political Demography, Population Studies

Desde mediados del siglo XX, paulatinamente, se han ido introduciendo novedades en el
proceso de valoración, reconocimiento y ampliación del concepto de patrimonio cultural. En este
proceso han intervenido decisivamente las disposiciones jurídico-administrativas y las políticas
culturales, la incorporación de nuevas disciplinas y profesionales, y la sensibilización y demandas
sociales en la protección y gestión del patrimonio cultural.
En este contexto, la aprobación de la Convención de la UNESCO para la Salvaguardia del
Patrimonio Cultural Inmaterial (2003) ha impulsado las iniciativas estatales encaminadas a
reconocer conocimientos, técnicas, representaciones, ritos festivos y expresiones culturales. Y ha
logrado impulsar desde los colectivos sociales una autoestima y un deseo por mostrar las
peculiaridades de sus prácticas culturales. Además, este marco normativo-jurídico y sociocultural
favorece la realización de inventarios, estudios, programas y proyectos de promoción, que están
favoreciendo una visión más real de la pluralidad y la diversidad cultural.
En el caso del presente trabajo, su autor, por propia iniciativa, ha emprendido acciones de
documentación y estudio del patrimonio cultural inmaterial local, como primera medida para, a
partir de su conocimiento, poder establecer otras intervenciones que favorezcan el reconocimiento
interno y externo, y posibiliten su transmisión y continuidad, de acuerdo con los intereses de los
colectivos sociales que lo detentan.
Ahora bien, si a este tipo de inestimables manifestaciones socioculturales/socioambientales
/ecoculturales no se le facilitan las vías para su salvaguarda y para su respeto, desaparecerán en
breve, ya que muchas de las prácticas sociales como los conocimientos y vivencias son más
vulnerables, al no cumplir ya las funciones tradicionales que justificaban su perpetuación.
Así, esta investigación ha constatado que en el caso del valioso patrimonio etnológico que
constituyen los Ramos Cantados, en los pequeños pueblos de la Tierra de Valdebecedas, en la
comarca abulense de El Barco (Castilla y León, España), se encuentra actualmente en trance de
extinción ante la virulencia del proceso de despoblación rural, el cual ha dejado a este envejecido
territorio rural y montañoso castellano y leonés al borde del despoblamiento y el agotamiento
demográfico definitivo.

- by Jesus Moreno Arriba
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- Religion, Rural Sociology, Social Demography, Sociology of Religion

The chapter reviews migration patterns to and from the 22 Arab countries, and the profile of young Arab migrants in the GCC and in Western OECD countries. It then examines young Arabs’ reasons to migrate and possible exclusion factors, and envisages the role of migration policies in receiving or sending states, before emphasizing the role of inclusion in the migration process. Lastly, the chapter highlights impediments to the mobility of labor. The chapter emphasizes the range and diversity of capabilities allowing young Arabs to migrate in sizeable number to other countries inside the region, as well as outside the Arab region. However, it also questions the origin countries’ continuous reliance on youth’ exit in order to curb unemployment and increase national households’ income through remittances.

- by Francoise De Bel-Air
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- Social Demography, Youth Studies, Gulf Studies, Migration

Le processus de décolonisation qui s’est déployé pendant une trentaine d’années au lendemain de la Seconde guerre mondiale semble avoir été un phénomène général, embrasant tous les territoires auparavant colonisés par des pays européens ou par les Japonais. Or, il y a eu des exceptions. Certaines, comme celles des Antilles françaises, peuvent s’expliquer par l’histoire, avec ces îles devenues territoires français avant même que fût véritablement engagée la colonisation systématique au XIXe siècle. Il en résulte, dans le giron de la République française, ce qu’il est convenu d’appeler les « confettis de l’histoire », départements ou territoires d’outre-mer. Mais la véritable exception au processus de décolonisation est, dans le canal du Mozambique, une île de l’archipel des Comores, Mayotte, qui est parvenue à résister au sens de l'histoire en luttant pour rester française. Découvrons-d’abord cette île, comme elle se présente au visiteur arrivant par la ligne aérienne régulière, avant d’examiner son histoire géopolitique, passée et actuelle, qui induit d’importants effets démographiques.

- by Francoise De Bel-Air
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- Irregular Migration, Jordan, Political Demography, Migration policies
- by Richard Cincotta
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- Human Geography, Demography, Political Demography

L’Asie centrale ex-soviétique se caractérise d’abord par un peuplement relativement faible, tant en considérant la totalité de ses territoires qu’à l’examen de chacun de ses cinq États, indépendants depuis 1991. Une autre grande caractéristique démographique de cette région tient à la diversité ethnique des populations. Il en résulte des questions de géopolitique interne et externe.
[ex-Soviet Central Asia is characterized first by a relatively small population, so considering all of its territories and the review of each of the five states, independent since 1991. Another major demographic characteristic of this region lies in the ethnic diversity of populations. This results in issues of internal and external geopolitics.]

This book is the rare and welcome exception, a genuine breath of fresh air.

- by Richard Cincotta
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- Social Demography, Demography, Comparative Politics, International Development
- by Mete Hatay
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- Political Demography

הכנס התקיים ב-27 ליוני 2021 ביוזמת המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי בשיתוף פעולה מחקרי של המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי עם מרכז עזריאלי ללימודי ישראל במכון בן-גוריון לחקר ישראל והציונות, אוניברסיטת בן-גוריון בנגב הכנס עסק בנושא דמוגרפיה וביטחון לאומי. במסגרתו הוצגו דעות השונות על הדמוגרפיה של ישראל במובנה הרחב על תפישת הביטחון הלאומי ואתגרים דמוגרפים
לביטחון הלאומי של ישראל בראייה היסטורית, עכשווית ועתידית.
במאמר זה רוכזו מחשבות שבחלקן הוצגו על ידי המחבר בפני משתתפי הכנס.

- by Yakov Faitelson
- •
- Demography, Historical Demography, Political Demography, Demographics

The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it... more

The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such
upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.

- by Andrey Korotayev
- •
- Political Sociology, Political Anthropology, Revolutions, World History
- by Richard Cincotta and +1
- •
- Political Demography

This article explains the effects of ethnic nationalism on Anglophone and Francophone migration. The rise of Québec ethnic nationalism in the 1960s dismantled the cultural division of labour, which created new opportunities for Francophones but threatened Anglophones' traditional dominance over the Québec economy. This had negative consequences for Anglophones but positive outcomes for Francophones, which in turn accounts for differences in migration patterns. Drawing from the internal colony model as well as migration and exit-voice theories, and using ecological census data, micro-census data and election panel data, I find that the key variables that increase the likelihood of Anglophone out-migration either do not explain Francophone out-migration or have opposite effects. This is because ethnonationalist policies decreased the economic return particularly for well-educated, higherearning, professional Anglophones in Québec, while increasing the economic position of Francophones and in particular well-educated professionals.

- by David Pettinicchio
- •
- Demography, Migration, Canadian Politics, Sociological Theory

It would be hard to conjure up a more grave and immediate set of peacetime challenges than those that Israel faces today-from the advances in Iran's nuclear program, to the political instabilities that continue to play out along the length of its borders. Yet, the outcome of the January 2013 election of the 19 th Knesset appears to have been shaped less by the Israeli public's perceptions of foreign threats, and more by its domestic concerns. After the votes had been tallied, Yesh Atid, led by former broadcast journalist Yair Lapid, had secured 19 of the Knesset's 120 seats, a surprising showing for a party organized only a few months prior to the election and running a list of political outsiders. As Prime Minister Netanyahu assembled his coalition partners, Yesh Atid struck up a "both of us, or neither of us" pact with HaBayit Yehudi (The Jewish Home), a nationalist party to the right of Likud led by Naftali Bennett that sent 12 members to the current Knesset (MKs). As a result, Lapid and Bennett were able to exclude the two major ultra-Orthodox-led electoral lists-Shas with 11 MKs, and United Torah Judaism (UTJ, a list including two Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties) with 7 MKs-from the ruling coalition. 1 This brief note raises two questions: How did Yesh Atid rise from a virtual standing start to claim a critical position in Israel's 33 rd government? And what does this party's electoral achievement mean for the future of Israel's democracy? To respond, I will assume a position that most Middle East analysts are likely to consider highly speculative-that minority population growth has pushed the nation's secular political establishment into a corner; neither can they afford to invite ultra-Orthodox parties into a ruling coalition, nor can they continue to neglect the public's demands for policy reforms that would change the fundamental relationships between the ultra-Orthodox, Israel's Arab citizens, and the state. While this position appears like unfettered speculation to those holding the "conventional view", to others with a demographic perspective on Israel's social turbulence, this shift seems virtually inevitable. 2

- by Richard Cincotta
- •
- Comparative Politics, Middle East Studies, Israel Studies, Middle East Politics

Коротаев А. В. Ловушка на выходе из ловушки. К математическому моделированию социально-политической дестабилизации в странах мир-системной периферии // Социология и общество: глобальные вызовы и региональное развитие / Ред. Ж. Т. Тощенко.... more

As of May 27, 2015, estimates of Oman’s total population stood at 4,187,516 persons, of whom 1,849,412 (44.2 per cent) were foreign nationals. Foreign workers are overwhelmingly from the
Asian subcontinent: Indians, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis together made up 87 per cent of the workforce in 2013. Eighty-two per cent of all foreign workers were employed in the private sector that year, and 12 per cent were filling managerial and “white collar” posts. The flow of foreign workers to Oman has been rising over the 2000s up till today. Lagging youth employment and rising poverty levels spurred popular protests in 2011 which slowed down economic diversification and the private sector’s development process. However, sectoral Omanisation quotas are now enforced and the hiring of Omani nationals in every business has become mandatory. Aggressive measures also target foreign residents in irregular situation which has led to several massive amnesty and deportation campaigns since 2010.

Gérard-François Dumont et Pierre Verluise analysent les propos de Roger Cohen qui, dans le New York Times, présente un scénario de déclenchement d'une Troisième Guerre mondiale. [Gérard-François Dumont and Pierre Verluise analyze the... more

Gérard-François Dumont et Pierre Verluise analysent les propos de Roger Cohen qui, dans le New York Times, présente un scénario de déclenchement d'une Troisième Guerre mondiale.
[Gérard-François Dumont and Pierre Verluise analyze the text of Roger Cohen, New York Times, who presents a scenario trigger a Third World War.]