Oil Price Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Oil price volatility shows the degree of rise or fall in oil prices over time. The price of crude oil is highly influenced by the fluctuations in supply–demand gap and global macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. The Organization of... more

Oil price volatility shows the degree of rise or fall in oil prices over time. The price of crude oil is highly influenced by the fluctuations in supply–demand gap and global macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plays an important role in the global oil supply and demand. The oil price volatility depends on the combined effects of invariant and variable factors. Invariant factors include feedstock prices, exploration costs, drilling costs, chemical composition of oil, production costs, distribution costs, marketing costs, and packaging and storage costs, while the variable factors include global economic activity, level of production, level of consumption , exchange value of the US dollar ($), current supply and demand, geopoli-tical reasons, weather-related developments, and political events. Supply factors have played a more important role than demand factors in driving the 50% drop in the oil price between mid 2014 and early 2015. This paper aims to review the historical change in the crude oil prices, control limits of the OPEC annual price per barrel from 2003 to 2015, and factors affecting the oil price volatility. As a result of the review, a mean and standard deviation for the last 13 years (2003– 2015) was estimated by setting an upper limit (US $ 128.63 per barrel) with ambition that this will support the oil-producing nations in gaining large cash surplus in their fiscal budget. Similarly, a lower control limit can be set at US $ 16.97. However, this will cause a direct loss to crude oil exporters, but the impacts vary from one oil-producing country to another country.

This study aims to forecast oil prices using evolutionary techniques such as gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (NN) models to predict oil prices over the period from January 2, 1986 to June 12, 2012.... more

This study aims to forecast oil prices using evolutionary techniques such as gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (NN) models to predict oil prices over the period from January 2, 1986 to June 12, 2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are employed to benchmark evolutionary models. The results reveal that the GEP technique outperforms traditional statistical techniques in predicting oil prices. Further, the GEP model outperforms the NN and the ARIMA models in terms of the mean squared error, the root mean squared error and the mean absolute error. Finally, the GEP model also has the highest explanatory power as measured by the R-squared statistic. The results of this study have important implications for both theory and practice.

This paper generalizes the existing cointegration analysis literature in two respects. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing exogenous I(1) variables is examined. The asymptotic... more

This paper generalizes the existing cointegration analysis literature in two respects. Firstly, the problem of efficient estimation of vector error correction models containing exogenous I(1) variables is examined. The asymptotic distributions of the (log-)likelihood ratio statistics for testing cointegrating rank are derived under different intercepts and trend specifications and their respective critical values are tabulated. Tests for the presence of an intercepts or linear trend in the cointegrating relations are also developed together with model misspecification tests. Secondly, efficient estimation of vector error correction models when the short-run dynamics may differ within and between equations is considered. A re-examination of the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest rate parity hypotheses is conducted using U.K. data under the maintained assumption of exogenously given foreign and oil prices.

Because of the recent soaring petroleum price and growing environmental concerns, biodiesel has become an important alternative fuel. Biodiesel is the mono alky esters made from a vegetable oil, such as soybean or rapeseed oil, or... more

Because of the recent soaring petroleum price and growing environmental concerns, biodiesel has become an important alternative fuel. Biodiesel is the mono alky esters made from a vegetable oil, such as soybean or rapeseed oil, or sometimes from animal fats. The escalation in world petroleum price has stimulated the demand for biodiesel, which consequently expanded the use of vegetable oils.

This report provides practical guidance to central, regional, and local government agencies on how to manage the transport challenges associated with rising oil prices. The three main sections of the report are: • Modelling Prices for... more

This report provides practical guidance to central, regional, and local government agencies on how to manage the transport challenges associated with rising oil prices. The three main sections of the report are: • Modelling Prices for Transport Fuels – several oil price forecasts are combined to develop a view on future oil prices. This shows annual average oil prices staying

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil... more

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of oil depends upon the underlying sources of variation: when the driver

Growing scarcity of oil and increasing oil prices are highly relevant for tourism. This research provides a critical meta-analysis to assess current knowledge of ‘tourism and oil’. The interdisciplinary analysis is complex as there are no... more

Growing scarcity of oil and increasing oil prices are highly relevant for tourism. This research provides a critical meta-analysis to assess current knowledge of ‘tourism and oil’. The interdisciplinary analysis is complex as there are no clear boundaries of the phenomenon, the interpretation of ‘facts’ is context dependent, and activities relevant to tourism and oil are multi-dimensional. The review suggests that increasing oil prices will have far-reaching impacts on tourism, including changes to people’s lifestyles and the role of tourism within these. Presented knowledge of tourism and oil is far from comprehensive and serves as a starting point for further enquiry. In particular, research on the interpretive components of the phenomenon remains poorly conceptualised and ill-understood.

... OPEC portfolio choices. Assuming that oil-exporting countries have a strong preference for dollar-denominated assets but not for US goods, an oil price hike will lead the dollar to appreciate in the short run but not in the long run.... more

... OPEC portfolio choices. Assuming that oil-exporting countries have a strong preference for dollar-denominated assets but not for US goods, an oil price hike will lead the dollar to appreciate in the short run but not in the long run. ...

This article explores the relationship between the oil industry’s representation of operating conditions in key sites of extraction and the constitution of oil futures markets. An analysis of Shell Oil’s recent Scenarios publications, the... more

This article explores the relationship between the oil industry’s representation of operating conditions in key sites of extraction and the constitution of oil futures markets. An analysis of Shell Oil’s recent Scenarios publications, the ‘Trilemma Scenarios to 2025’ and subsequent ‘Scramble and Blueprints Scenarios to 2050’, provides insight into both the (global) social construction of oil prices and the oil industry’s reaction to social resistance in its operating environment – whether in the form of movements for resource sovereignty or climate change activism. Examining the implications of these two Scenario publications for key sites of Shell investment, the Nigerian Niger Delta and the Canadian Tar Sands, the article demonstrates that understanding the discursive implications of ‘peak oil’ for the petroleum industry requires contextualizing discussions of ‘scarcity’ within business agents role in shaping oil futures markets, and private industry’s interest in the ongoing development of unconventional fossil fuel sources. While the role of deregulated futures trading receives little attention in the Shell Scenarios, speculative trading – and thus perception concerning supply among business agents – is central to shaping global oil prices and thus the social conditions of the oil market.

During the periods of globalization and deregulation, it is become very common for the equity market of a country to respond to the movement of prices of some internationally traded goods. The effort, trying to achieve in this study,... more

During the periods of globalization and deregulation, it is become very common for the equity market of a country to respond to the movement of prices of some internationally traded goods. The effort, trying to achieve in this study, relates to how Indian equity market responds to the movement of Crude Oil Prices. BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty have been taken as the indicator of stock market performance. Daily closing prices of the equity indices and the price of Crude Oil for a period of 11 years starting from July, 2001 to June, 2012 have been used to assess the co-movement of prices among them. The study applies the concept of Unit Root test, Johansen's Cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality test to establish the long-run and short-run causal relationship between them. From the Trace test statistics and Maximum Eigen statistics we conclude that there exists one cointegrating vector for each case i.e., there exist a long term relationship between oil price and stock indices. The coefficient of the cointegrating equation shows that the relationship is positive and statistically significant. The VECM result shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price and the results of the Granger Causality test confirms the same unidirectional movement in short-run also.