Phillips curve Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

This study examined the causal and quantitative relationships between the unemployment rate and the the inflation rate in Bulgaria. А statistical analysis has been performed in order to characterize the relationship between the two economic variables by using monthly and annual data. A comparison has been made with respect to the results obtained for Bulgaria and European Union (28 country). An assessment of the equilibrium level of unemployment (NAIRU) in Bulgaria and in EU-28 has been performed.

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- Economics, Macroeconomics, Statistics, Applied Statistics

We turn our attention to the role of money for determining nominal magnitudes. Using US data, we find that the aggregate “nominal output plus and stock market capitalisation” is closely related to the money stock, lending support to one of Milton Friedman’s key monetarist propositions. This finding should be particularly important for ECB monetary policy: an inflation-free euro plays a

- by Thorsten Polleit
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- Monetary Economics, Heterodox Economics, Stock Market, Structuralism

The unemployment rate in Zambia faces the insufferable irony of being a macroeconomic metric of the highest priority but the least effort in measurement for policy, analysis or implementation.Most reports on unemployment in Zambia have been breakdowns of the labour force survey by disaggregating data by sex, occupation, sector, age or some other demographics. This report goes a step further in its analysis and introduces the concept of the Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and its relevance for policy prescriptions.

- by Kampamba Shula
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- Economics, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Zambia

Policy-makers have recently noted an apparent flattening of the Phillips curve. The implications of such a change include that a positive output gap would be less inflationary, but the cost of reducing inflation, once established, would increase. This paper’s objective is to review the evidence and possible explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve in the context of new-Keynesian

- by Tim Robinson
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- Economics, United States, Inflation, Phillips curve

Lotta all'inflazione e autonomia della banca centrale, massima concorrenza e minimo intervento dello Stato nell'economia sono i principi chiave dei trattati europei. Questo saggio dimostra che essi esprimono una idea di società in conflitto con quella propria della nostra Costituzione e con la tutela dei diritti fondamentali che questa prevede, a cominciare dal diritto al lavoro. Tale conflitto
è reso evidente dalla forzatura rappresentata dall'inserimento in Costituzione, in obbedienza alle regole europee del Fiscal compact, del nuovo art. 81 che prevede l'obbligo del pareggio di bilancio: un vero e proprio cuneo che scardina il sistema dei fondamentali diritti costituzionali. Contro la logica del "vincolo esterno" che quell'articolo rappresenta è necessario riaffermare la validità dell'impianto originario della nostra Costituzione e la sua priorità sui trattati europei.

- by Vladimiro Giacché
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- European Law, International Treaties, Diritto Costituzionale, Phillips curve
- by Ebrahim Zulfiqar
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- Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Pakistan, Undergraduate Research
- by Mark Setterfield and +1
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- Political Economy, Political Science, Economic Theory, Applied Economics
- by Matias Vernengo
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- Monetary Economics, Heterodox Economics, Structuralism, Inflation
- by Wendy Carlin
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- Phillips curve, Interest Rate, New keynesian Model
- by Hector Sala
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- Econometrics, Applied Economics, Inflation Dynamics, Phillips curve
- by Wendy Carlin
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- Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Policy Analysis, Phillips curve

Paper ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis eksistensi fenomena kurva Phillips di perekonomian Indonesia, 2000Q1-2010Q3. Hasil penaksiran yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode OLS menunjukkan bahwa model expectationss augmented Phillips curve dan new Keynesian Phillips curve tidak dapat memberikan gambaran yang jelas mengenai eksistensi kurva Phillips di perekonomian Indonesia. Variabel guncangan seperti persentase perubahan kurs dan harga minyak mentah memberikan pengaruh yang sangat kecil terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia. Selanjutnya, hasil penaksiran dengan menggunakan metode GMM pada hybrid model dari new Keynesian Phillips curve menunjukkan bahwa fenomena kurva Phillips eksis di perekonomian Indonesia.

- by Maichal Maichal
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- Economics, Monetary Policy, Phillips curve
- by Alfonso Arpaia
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- Applied Economics, Euro Area, Stress Testing, Phillips curve

Equilibrium growth rate stated by us is based on equilibrium evolution of economy IS-LM-SRAS, where the equations IS and LM are liniar specificated in real GDP, nominal interest rate and real wealth, and the SRAS curve is also linear, infered from linear Phillips curve. The evolution of the economy is determined from two dynamic continuous time equations: the dynamics of expected inflation rate, specified as adaptive mechanism with respect to current inflation rate, and the wealth dynamics, the last arising from the policy of budget deficit finance. As a consequence, the dynamics of economy depends on the policies of the government and the Central Bank. The paper comprises three parts: the dynamic model deduction, long run and short run dynamics of the economy, money finance debt, when b b t = policy is applied, deduction of the equilibrium growth rate for this policy.

- by ANA MICHAELA ANDREI
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- Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation Dynamics, Riccati Equation
- by James A Wilcox
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- Great Depression, Monetary Policy, Developing Country, Phillips curve
- by Alberto Musso
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- Economics, Empirical Economics, Euro Area, Predictive Validity

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992-2017, within the Phillips curve context. For the long-term equilibrium relationship and the causal relationship of the examined variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and the causality approach of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) are applied, as the most appropriate for the
sample size and the integration of the variables. The results of the study revealed that there is a long run relation between unemployment rate and the inflation rate for Poland, for the aforementioned period. In addition, the causality results indicated a unidirectional relationship
between unemployment rate and inflation rate, with direction from unemployment to inflation. Finally, to forecast the model variables, the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition method are applied. The results for a 10-year forecasting period indicated that
shocks in unemployment rate cause a decrease on inflation rate for the first years, followed by a steady increase for the remaining years. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.

- by Pavlos P. Stamatiou
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- Unemployment, Impulse response, Inflation, Phillips curve

This paper pursues a computationally intensive approach to generate future inflation, followed by an exploration of the determinants of inflation expectations by estimating a new Keynesian type Phillips curve that takes into account country-specific characteristics, the stance of monetary and fiscal policies, marginal costs and exogenous supply shocks. The empirical results indicate that high and climbing inflation could easily seep

- by Partha Ray
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- Fiscal policy, Critical Mass, Monetary Policy, Inflation expectations
- by George Alogoskoufis and +1
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- Economics, Latin American Economic History, First-Order Logic, Phillips curve

This paper presents a theoretical explanation for the enigmatic discontinuity of the relationship between inflation and unemployment that has registered the U.S. economy since the early 1950s onwards. I argue that by distinguishing between two different historical episodes after World War II, the Golden Age and the Age of Decline, some insights in the Phillips curve puzzle can be gained and the analysis helps us to substantiate the existence of both downward sloping and upward sloping species of the curve. The regime change is illustrated here by building on a commonly used Post-Keynesian model of distribution and growth, which is enhanced to allow for an inflation process based on a conflicting claims approach and a growth rate form of Okun's law. The model shows that the long-run Phillips curve can be either downward-sloping or upward-sloping, conditioned to the distribution of market power between business and labor.

- by Leonardo Vera
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- Inflation and Unemployment, Phillips curve, Market Power

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992-2017, within the Phillips curve context. Several econometric techniques are applied, including the bounds testing (ARDL) approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) as well as Toda and Yamamoto (1995) modification of the Granger causality test (no-causality approach) in a two-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results of the study confirm a long run relationship among the examined variables for the aforementioned period. Finally, the findings of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) analysis indicate a unidirectional causality between unemployment rate and inflation with direction from unemployment rate to inflation. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.

- by Pavlos P. Stamatiou
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- Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Unemployment, Poland

Phillips Curve known as the negative association between unemployment and inflation because the trade-off relationship between those two variables. Phillips Curve was first pointed out by William Phillips in 1958. Considering the fact that Phillips Curve have been done in the developed country, this study focuses on Indonesia which is grouped as developing country. The aims of this study us to empirically analyze the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation in Indonesia using data during the period of 2010-2016. The main finding of this study using panel data regression is that there existed an equilibrium relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate in Indonesia. This study support the validity of the Phillips Curve hypothesis.

- by Nieken de Misga and +1
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- Labor Economics, Indonesia, Panel Data, Econometrics Models - Panel Data

We evaluate the role of oil prices shocks in explaining inflation dynamics in the post war US period. In doing so, we use the second order solution of a benchmark New Keynesian framework when the economy is hit by an oil price shock. The second order solution permits us to relax the certainty equivalence assumption generating a risk-premium over inflation absent in a log-linear approximation. We find , in contrast with Clarida Galí and Gertler (QJE, 2000), that oil price shocks rather than differences in the monetary policy rules between the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods, are the main driving forces that explain high and persistent levels of inflation during the 70´s. The mechanism works as follows: an increase in the volatility of oil prices fits into the marginal costs of firms through the production function and increases output volatility in equilibrium. The convexity of the Phillips curve is crucial to generate an increasing function between the volatility of output and ...

- by Paul Castillo
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- Inflation Dynamics, Steady state, Oil Price, Phillips curve

The first step in any kind of research is to select the most adequate research methodology. There are a lot of research methodologies to chose from when one wants to engage in research regarding the development of financial performance models. Because of this abundance, there is a need to present the most important ones. In this paper I describe the

- by Adrian Costea
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- European Union, Retail Banking, Literature Review, Monetary Policy

High economic growth, price stability and low unemployment are the most enviable macroeconomic goals. The success of government policies is reflected in low inflation and low unemployment. The nature and costs of inflation and unemployment can have vital impact on the economy and society. Unemployment situation in Pakistan has aggravated because of rapid population growth, lacklustre economic growth, fiscal indiscipline,

- by Samia Awais
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- Poverty, Economic Growth, Foreign Policy, Economic Development
- by Paul Castillo
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- Inflation Dynamics, Steady state, Oil Price, Phillips curve
- by Eduardo Pérez
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- General Equilibrium, Monetary Policy, Labour Market, Search and Matching
- by Behrouz Doushabi (بهروز دوشابی)
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- Economics, Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Unemployment

Este trabajo de investigación expone un acercamiento teórico y empírico sobre el ciclo económico mexicano en base a la Curva de Phillips, mediante un marco teórico que justifica el planteamiento de la NAIRU y dos modelos econométricos que muestran la relación entre la inflación y el desempleo así como una estimación de la NAIRU del 2000 al 2014. Así mismo se presenta un breve análisis impulso respuesta que permite observar la relación tanto del proceso inflacionario mexicano y el desempleo con el comportamiento del reloj cíclico publicado por el INEGI.
The following paper exposes a theoretical and empirical approach to the Mexican Economic cycle, based on the Phillip´s Curve, under first a theoretical intercourse that justifies the NAIRU exposure and two econometric models that describe the relationship between inflation and unemployment, including an NAIRU estimation from 2000 to 2014. Also in this paper, an impulse-response is exposed in orther to observe the relation of causality that the inflation and unemployment have to the economic cycle clock published by the INEGI.

- by Gabriel Himelfarb
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- Monetary Economics, Econometrics, Time series Econometrics, Monetary Policy
- by Alan Grant
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- Economics, Phillips curve, Business Cycle, Development Time
- by Carl Walsh
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- Economics, European Economic Integration, Monetary Policy, Inflation
- by Hector Sala
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- Econometrics, Applied Economics, Policy modeling, Policy making

In this paper, the relationship between the inflation gap and output gap is investigated by adopting the Markov switching model and using monthly data between 1990:1 and 2008:5. To the findings, the relationship between inflation gap and output gap is nonlinear. The major contribution of this study is that regime probabilities are computed in the context of Markov switching model by following Chen (2006). ENFLASYON VE ÇIKTI AÇIKLARININ DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: ASİMETRİLER VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ KANITI Özet Bu çalışmada, 1990:1 – 2008:5 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, Türkiye ekonomisi açısından enflasyon farkı ile çıktı açığı arasındaki ilişki araştırılmış ve Markov rejim değişim modeli yardımıyla, söz konusu ilişkinin doğrusal olmadığı yönünde bulgulara ulaşılmıştır. Çalışmanın temel katkısı, Markov rejim değişim modeli çerçevesinde, Chen (2006) tarafından önerilen geçiş olasılıklarının hesaplanmış olmasıdır. Anahtar Sözcükler: (1) Phillips eğrisi, (2) Para politikası asimetrisi, (3) Taylor kuralı, (4) Markov rejim değişim modeli, (5) Rejim olasılıkları.

- by Aslı Seda Kurt and +1
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- Phillips curve, Markov switching models, Asymmetries in Economics

Abstract: Relating a technological concept such as a machine, which functions based on certain physical rules, with economy, in other words, an attempt to explain (demonstrate) an economic theory should be quite interesting. This study is an attempt to provide quite fundamental and practical information on the functioning of a machine produced about fifty years ago, the theoretical framework of which is constituted by the IS-LM model in an open economy. However, before this point, an outline of the relations between economy and many other social and natural sciences including physics, which may be considered quite distinct from economy, is provided as they become tangible thanks to this machine that works on a hydrodynamic principle.
Keywords: Hydraulic Keynesianism, the Phillips Machine
Jel: A12; A20; N00; D58; E27

- by Natan Epstein
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- Monetary Policy, Linear Model, Phillips curve, Dynamic Response
- by James Forder
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- History of Economic Thought, Milton Friedman, Expectations, Phillips curve
- by Fumitaka Furuoka
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- Phillips curve
- by Henri Sterdyniak
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- Economic Theory, Phillips curve, Growth rate, Real Wages
- by Kah Kah
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- Economics, Principal Component Analysis, Labour Market Institutions, Phillips curve
- by Willi Semmler
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- Income Distribution, Parameter estimation, Euro Area, Time Series Data

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2006-2017 döneminde enflasyon ve işsizlik oranları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Fourier yaklaşımı ile incelenmiştir. Fourier yaklaşımına dayanan ekonometrik testler, serilerin etkisi altında bulunduğu yapısal kırılmaların sayısı, konumu ve formu ne olursa olsun güçlü sonuçlar vermektedir. İlk olarak, değişkenlere Fourier birim kök testi uygulanmış ve seviyelerinde durağan olmadıkları görülmüştür. Bunun üzerine, değişkenlerin farkı alınarak tekrar Fourier birim kök testi uygulanmış ve değişkenlerin birinci farkı alındığında durağan hale geldikleri tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını sınamak amacıyla Fourier eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve uzun dönemde işsizliğin enflasyonu etkilediği, fakat enflasyonun işsizliği etkilemediği bulunmuştur. Son olarak, Dinamik En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi kullanılarak uzun dönemli katsayılar tahmin edilmiş ve işsizlik oranında meydana gelen 1 birimlik artışın uzun dönemde enflasyon oranında yaklaşık olarak 0.23 birimlik azalmaya neden olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar, Türkiye’de Phillips eğrisinin geçerli olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

- by MUSTAFA ORHAN ÖZER
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- Unemployment, Turkey, Fourier Analysis, Inflation
- by Juan F Jimeno
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- Economics, Immigration, European Economic Integration, Phillips curve
- by Robert Dimand
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- Political Economy, Economic Growth, Political Science, Economic Theory
- by Steven Kamin
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- Finance, Phillips curve, Output Gap
- by Filippo Di Mauro
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- Monetary Policy, Labour Market, Commodity prices, Structural Change