Bullwhip effect Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

The supply chain, impacted by production strategies and stock-up or addendum policies, often causes information confusion and forms the bullwhip effect. Instructors were often only able to talk about the various types of strategies and... more

The supply chain, impacted by production strategies and stock-up or addendum policies, often causes information confusion and forms the bullwhip effect. Instructors were often only able to talk about the various types of strategies and influences imposed by various business performance indexes when lecturing on the supply chain management courses. Although, by developing a ‘beer game’ information system (MIT Forum has its Web-based version), the Northwestern University in U.S. has addressed that the problems of supply chain are solved and whoever interested in supply chain can participate in the beer game and learn about the supply chain through playing. However, the fixed and un-modifiable imitative setup and system parameters that could not be flexibly adjusted by the instructors were indeed the biggest weakness of the game. As the result, this paper has proposed an agent based beer game which enables not only for instructors to set supply chain scale freely or imitate various...

The measure of bullwhip effect (BWE) has always been a challenging task to the researchers. BWE is one of the main performance measures for a supply chain. In the existing literature, the measurement of BWE has been performed based on the... more

The measure of bullwhip effect (BWE) has always been a challenging task to the researchers. BWE is one of the main performance measures for a supply chain. In the existing literature, the measurement of BWE has been performed based on the simple demand processes such as Moving Average, AR(1) (AutoRegression), AR(2), Exponential Smoothing and ARMA(1,1) (AutoRegressive Moving Average). In this paper, we have derived generalized expressions of BWE based on the generalized ARMA (p,q) demand process under the various replenishment policies. The expressions have been compared both algebraically and numerically in order to find out the appropriate replenishment policy that leads to minimum valued expression for BWE.

This research investigates how information and material distortions affect the inventory management performance of a major retailer. Bullwhip effects (BWEs) are individually calculated for dozens of products carried by dozens of retail... more

This research investigates how information and material distortions affect the inventory management performance of a major retailer. Bullwhip effects (BWEs) are individually calculated for dozens of products carried by dozens of retail locations. Relationships between item/store-level BWEs and item/store-level performance measures including gross margins and inventory levels are tested and reported.

Modularity has been used in several disciplines as a structured way to approach complexity, to increase efficiency, to reduce repetitive work, to decrease errors, and to create cumulative learning. The system dynamics field has yet to... more

Modularity has been used in several disciplines as a structured way to approach complexity, to increase efficiency, to reduce repetitive work, to decrease errors, and to create cumulative learning. The system dynamics field has yet to benefit from modularity as a systematic method for developing models. In this article, we discuss system dynamics modules that can be used in developing supply chain models. First, certain design rules are identified for developing modules in system dynamics. Then, a theoretical framework is used to guide closed-loop supply chain module development. Afterwards, reoccurring structures are identified to be used in developing system dynamics modules for modelling supply chain systems. Finally, the modules were used to represent three different closed-loop supply chain configurations; we show the implications of each configuration.

La fluctuación de los precios es una práctica utilizada normalmente por los empresarios para estimular la demanda. Asumiendo un patrón de demanda tipo escalón, que responde elásticamente a la fluctuación de los precios ofrecidos por el... more

La fluctuación de los precios es una práctica utilizada normalmente por los empresarios para estimular la demanda. Asumiendo un patrón de demanda tipo escalón, que responde elásticamente a la fluctuación de los precios ofrecidos por el minorista al cliente final, se analizará, utilizando el modelo dinámico de gestión de cadena de suministro propuesto por Campuzano (2006), como influyen dichas fluctuaciones en la variabilidad de las órdenes generadas a lo largo de una Cadena de Suministro Tradicional multinivel. Además, utilizando los resultados obtenidos, se propone un modelo de previsión para calcular la posible variación de las órdenes generadas en cada nivel, a partir del patrón de precios utilizado.

The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply... more

The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated demand patterns, alternative forecasting methods are proposed, that can reduce the Bullwhip effect in a supply chain in comparison to the traditional forecasting techniques (moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and ARMA processes). Our main findings show that kernel regression is a good alternative in order to improve important features in the supply chain, such as the Bullwhip, NSAmp, and FillRate.

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to report on research that was completed to explore the concept of the bullwhip effect in supply chains and to illustrate empirically the presence of the bullwhip effect in automotive supply chains... more

Purpose: The purpose of the article is to report on research that was completed to explore the concept of the bullwhip effect in supply chains and to illustrate empirically the presence of the bullwhip effect in automotive supply chains in South Africa. Problem Investigated: This article investigates the presence of the bullwhip effect - which was identified through an empirical study - and its causes and implications for supply chain management in the South African automotive component industry. Methodology: A literature study was conducted on the causes and implications of the bullwhip effect phenomenon. This was followed by an empirical study in the form of a survey among South African automotive component manufacturers. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to determine the significant supply chain problems relating to the bullwhip effect in automotive supply chains. Findings and Implications: The results indicate that automotive component manufacturers are dependent ...

The bullwhip effect results from inefficiencies in the supply chain; in perishable products, the inefficiencies are quality in the supply chain and product waste. We carried out a literature review to determine the causes of the bullwhip... more

The bullwhip effect results from inefficiencies in the supply chain; in perishable products, the inefficiencies are quality in the supply chain and product waste. We carried out a literature review to determine the causes of the bullwhip effect and the supply chain’s quality factors of this phenomenon’s perishable products. Update the demand, the level of deterioration of the product, and the number of intermediaries is the causes of the bullwhip effect most investigated. On the other hand, the product’s safety and the quality of the information are the quality factors of the chain of supplies of perishable products more researched. Future research should address the causes of human behavior that affect the bullwhip effect in the perishable goods supply chain.

Controlling the bullwhip effect and reducing the propagated inventory levels throughout the supply chain layers has an important role in reducing the total inventory costs of a supply chain. In this study, an optimal controller that... more

Controlling the bullwhip effect and reducing the propagated inventory levels throughout the supply chain layers has an important role in reducing the total inventory costs of a supply chain. In this study, an optimal controller that considers demand as control variable is designed to dampen propagated inventory fluctuations for each node throughout the supply chain network. The model proves to be very useful in revealing the dynamic characteristics of the chain and provides a proper interface to study decisions taken into account at each node of the supply chain in different periods by decision makers (DMs). In the proposed approach, two feedback loops and online updated values of net stock quantities are used for calculation of the orders. To investigate the efficiency of the proposed approach, a real case of bicycle industry is conducted. The acquired results justify the efficiency of the proposed approach in controlling and dampening the bullwhip effect and reducing inventory lev...

The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon commonly observed in supply chains. It describes how demand variance amplifies from a downstream site to an upstream site due to demand information distortion. Two different bullwhip effect measures... more

The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon commonly observed in supply chains. It describes how demand variance amplifies from a downstream site to an upstream site due to demand information distortion. Two different bullwhip effect measures have been used in the literature. Theorists analyze the bullwhip effect based on the information flow (i.e., order and demand information), whereas most empiricists measure it according to the material flow (i.e., shipment and sales data). It is unclear how much the discrepancy between these two measures is, and, if significant, how to reconcile the discrepancy. In this paper, we illustrate and quantify the discrepancy under three inventory systems. For the system with stationary demand and ample supply, we show that the bullwhip effect measure based on the material-flow data is always greater than that based on the information flow. For the system with correlated demand and for the system with supply shortages, we derive conditions under which the mat...

The increased level of complexity in the case of Closed Loop Supply Chains (CLSCs) turns them into vulnerable systems under a disaster event. The latter calls for a methodological approach that allows a dynamic study under alternative... more

The increased level of complexity in the case of Closed Loop Supply Chains (CLSCs) turns them into vulnerable systems under a disaster event. The latter calls for a methodological approach that allows a dynamic study under alternative policies in mitigating the disaster effects with a focus on creating sustainable CLSCs. For this reason, we provide a System Dynamics (SD)-based analysis for disaster events on the operation of CLSCs. By “disaster event”, we mean three different categories taking shape on the basis of duration. Furthermore, three different demand patterns emerging due to the disaster event are examined. We assume that the disaster event affects the manufacturer, and we examine the system response under different mitigation policies. For each demand pattern two different mitigation policies at the manufacturer level are examined by considering the total CLSC profit and demand backlog as measures of policy performance. For each combination, extensive simulation experimen...

This study draws on information theory and aims to provide simulated evidence using real historical and statistical data to demonstrate how various levels of integration moderate the impact and uncertainties of information security breach... more

This study draws on information theory and aims to provide simulated evidence using real historical and statistical data to demonstrate how various levels of integration moderate the impact and uncertainties of information security breach on supply chain performance. We find that the supply chain behaves differently under various levels of integration when a security breach occurs. The entropy analysis revealed that the wholesaler experience the most uncertainty under system failure and data corruption. This sort of impact-uncertainty information will aid in designing and managing a resilient supply chain poised for minimal breach impact.

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the... more

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods&#39...

La metodología Demand-Driven Material Requirement Planning (DDMRP) fue desarrollado con el objetivo de aumentar el flujo de materiales e información de una cadena de suministro y así mejorar la ventaja competitiva de esta. En la revisión... more

La metodología Demand-Driven Material Requirement Planning (DDMRP) fue desarrollado con el objetivo de aumentar el flujo de materiales e información de una cadena de suministro y así mejorar la ventaja competitiva de esta. En la revisión de la literatura se han identificado trabajos de investigación que analizan el funcionamiento de esta metodología en entornos simulados. Sin embargo, no se han encontrado estudios que analicen la implementación del DDMRP en una empresa real. El presente trabajo, por lo tanto, analiza la evolución que una empresa que fabrica componentes para electrodomésticos obtuvo al migrar del MRP al DDMRP. Los resultados obtenidos, demuestran que gestionando los materiales con la metodología DDMRP la empresa aumentó la visibilidad en la cadena de suministro reduciendo considerablemente el efecto bullwhip y los pedidos urgentes. Cabe destacar también la evolución del inventario, ya que el stock físico se redujo mientras que el consumo de los materiales aumentó. Du...

Objective The demand-driven material requirements planning approach (DDMRP) considers inventory buffers at certain points in the bill of materials to respond more quickly to customer demands and demand fluctuations. In this approach, the... more

Objective The demand-driven material requirements planning approach (DDMRP) considers inventory buffers at certain points in the bill of materials to respond more quickly to customer demands and demand fluctuations. In this approach, the presence of a buffer at each point of the bill of material does not necessarily improve the material flow and may lead to an increase in inventory costs. Moreover, this approach includes parameters that are experimentally set by the manager, and inappropriate values for these parameters can result in deficient performance. Therefore, this paper aims to simultaneously determine optimal values for the parameters of this approach at both the strategic level (strategic inventory positioning) and the operational level (planning phase) to minimize inventory cost and achieve a 100% service level within customer tolerance time.