Political Risks Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

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- Marketing, Climate Change, Nutrition, Natural Resources

Political risk was first introduced as a component for assessing risk not directly linked to economic factors following the flow of capital from the US to Europe after the Second World War. However, the concept has rapidly gained relevance since, with both public and private institutions developing complex methodologies designed to evaluate political risk factors and keep pace with the internationalization of trade and investment. Continued global and regional economic and political instability means a plethora of different actors today conduct a diverse range of political risk analyses and assessments. Starting from the epistemological foundations of Political risk, this books bridges the gap between theory and practice, exploring operationalization and measurement issues with the support of an empirical case study on the Arab uprisings, discussing the role of expert judgment in political forecasting, and highlighting the main challenges and opportunities political risk analysts face in the wake of the digital revolution.

This article present some kind of risk of hard type that foreign corporations must face entering Vietnam market. Political and legal risk is very specific that differentiate Vietnam business environment from other business environments in the world, especially those of highly developed market. The article hints out how to manage those risks appropriately to achieve best business results for the foreign corporations which are not used to the completely new business environment they are facing.

- by Hoang-Tien Nguyen
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- Vietnam, Political Risks, Legal Risk, Controlled Foreign Corporation

By looking through the lens of a global entrepreneur, this dissertation provides insight into a crucial period in world history: the First Global Economy (1870-1914). To tackle the broader issue of the opportunities and limitations in a paradoxical world of economic globalization and political fragmentation, I take an actor-centered approach. The history of the business empire of the Belgian Edouard Empain (1852-1929) elucidates a complex era characterized by globalization and nation-state formation. By focusing on an entrepreneur originating from a small country but transcending boundaries, the possibilities and risks for international business in this period can be studied. Starting in 1880, the business group of Edouard Empain developed into one of the largest in Belgium and became a global player active on four continents. The Empain group mainly invested in public utilities such as transportation and electricity production as well as in electrical engineering. Within this context, this dissertation answers the following question: What strategies did a multinational enterprise from a small country adopt to seize the opportunities and handle the risks of a world characterized by both economic integration and geopolitical rivalry at a global scale? I argue that, to understand the development of international business in the First Global Economy, we need to acknowledge the importance of the following three domains: the geographical and sectoral strategy, the corporate structure, and the business-government relations. To address these issues, this dissertation uses a wide array of archival sources and secondary literature. It combines a comprehensive approach of the more than eighty Empain companies with selected case studies to understand the dynamics of international business. This allows me to argue that Empain developed strategies in the three abovementioned domains to transform the global economic and political challenges into opportunities. First, his investments were the result of an entrepreneurial logic combined with the pursuit of economies of scale and scope. Secondly, the business group form had many advantages, making it an efficient device for investments in the First Global Economy. Thirdly, thanks to the complex interplay between the multinational enterprise, the home country and the host countries, an entrepreneur from a small country could exploit the international political frictions of the late nineteenth-century world to develop a global business empire.

- by Tobit Vandamme
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- International Business, Business History, Global History, Belgian History

Cette thèse porte sur le rôle politique des multinationales helvétiques depuis 1942 et sur les débats que le processus d’internationalisation a provoqués en Suisse. La première partie analyse la genèse et l’évolution d’Industrie-Holding, une association créée durant la Seconde Guerre mondiale par plusieurs multinationales industrielles suisses afin de défendre leurs intérêts auprès des autorités fédérales. La deuxième partie étudie comment d’autres groupes d’intérêts ont perçu le phénomène d’internationalisation des entreprises après 1945. Elle analyse également le rôle particulier d’Industrie-Holding au sein de la coordination patronale suisse, notamment à l'occasion de la création de la garantie contre les risques à l’investissement ou encore de la conclusion d’un accord de double imposition avec l’Italie. La troisième partie étudie les réactions et les stratégies des multinationales suisses lorsque le processus d’internationalisation est remis en cause dans les années 1970, en Suisse, mais aussi à l’international, dans le cadre de l’élaboration de codes de bonne conduite.
Available online: https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:121457

When companies initiate international business activities, they are typically exposed to four fundamental types of risks including political, financial, commercial and cross-cultural risk (Çavuşgil, Knight, Rammal, Riesenberger & Rose, 2014: 45). Among these, the riskiest and the most violent type in international business is, political risk. This study aimed to identify the fact of political risk which is a current and an essential matter and the study was conducted to define the effects of political risk and its management for the overseas Turkish investors and also to identify the regions that have political risks for providing a new perspective and to fulfill a clear need of researches about political risk in Turkish literature review. In light of the data obtained from Turkish investors who made investments abroad, content analysis was used with the computer assisted "NVIVO 10.0". As a result of analysis, it has been seen that the perceptions about regions, which have the highest level of political risks, are Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the regions that have the lowest level of political risks concentrate on Europe, North America and Southeastern Asia. On the other hand, investors are closely exposed to political risk factors which are primarily war, civil disturbances, adverse regulatory changes, red tape, terrorism, non-honoring of sovereign financial obligations and tensions between the parent and host countries. Investors benefit from the internal/situation analysis and the method such as grand tour in terms of political risk analysis whereas strategies of engagement with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and government in host countries are mostly undertaken by investors in political risk management.

In recent times, political events-such as abrupt changes in government policies, social protests, episodes of corruption-have come to the fore as key sources of risk to the operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in host countries. Nonetheless, the conceptual boundaries of 'political risk' or 'political risks' have always been blurry. This paper aims at providing a theoretical framework to identify and analyse a particular type of political risk to which MNEs are exposed, that is the risk of incurring in reputational and non-reputational costs associated with the transgression of ethical norms on their part. In doing so, the article will also outline a research agenda meant to bridge the gap between the 'classic' literature on political risk and the study of corporate social responsibility (CSR).

- by Jane Lu and +1
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- Africa, Political Risks, Chinese OFDI
- by 'Joba Akinola
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- Environmental Law, Climate Change, International Investment Law, Expropriation
- by Mark Dorfman
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- Information Systems, Management Information Systems, Economics, Political Economy

Objective – The research aims to find the relationship between the political risk with stock returns.
Methodology/Technique – Using the purposive sampling, secondary data on 30 companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) of the year 2007-2015. Analysis technique used is weighted least square regression
Findings – The results of study Political risks significantly positively associated with stock returns. These results imply a change from the shock of political risk will affect cost of capital of the company increased, causing the company's stock price will go up which in the end impact on improving the company's stock returns obtained.
Novelty – The study implies Shock due to the change of political risk has a direct impact on the company's financial condition primarily of the cost of capital companies because it involves policy and investment decisions are made in Indonesia.

- by Paulina Yuritha Amtiran and +1
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- Political Risks, Stock Returns, Market Capitalization, Market Returns

Studies of how firms respond to host country risk have assigned explanatory primacy to organizational capability and managerial risk preference. The organization-level account is built on the premise that capability is a prerequisite for risk-taking while the individual-level account focuses on the managers' intrinsic behavioral attitude. Without integrating one with the other, the former is open to many alternative explanations while the latter remains only a source of heterogeneity. We propose that employing the microfoundations approach can address the limitations of each account and yield a fuller understanding of FDI risk-taking. Drawing upon behavioral decision theory and the concept of risk propensity, we describe the lower-level mechanisms that generate the empirical regularity between firm experience and risk-taking, which has been attributed to the macro-level capabilities paradigm. We finalize the framework with an account as to how individual-level mechanisms can be incorporated into the context of organizational strategic decision-making.

- by Liang Chen and +2
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- Microfoundations, Capabilities Approach, Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI ), Risk Propensity and Risk-Taking Behavior

ÖZET: Hisse senedi getirilerini etkileyen ve sistematik risk (piyasa riski) ve sistematik olmayan risk olarak sınıflandırılan iki temel risk kaynağı bulunmaktadır. Sistematik olmayan risk; faaliyet riski, finansal risk ve yönetim riski gibi çeşitlendirilebilir riskleri içerirken sistematik risk çeşitlendirilemeyen risk olarak nitelendirilir. Sistematik riskin kaynakları ise makroekonomik faktörler ve politik olaylardır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, sistematik risk kaynakları içerisinde önemli yer alan politik risk yaratabilecek olayların hisse senedi piyasası volatilitesi üzerine etkilerini gözlemlemektir. Bunun için 01.01.2012-26.05.2019 dönemini kapsayan haftalık veriler kullanılarak BIST100 endeksinin volatilitesi ARCH modelleri ile modellenmiş, volatilitede belirgin artışın olduğu dönemler tespit edilmiş ve bu dönemlerdeki siyasi olaylar gözden geçirilmiştir. 2013 Gezi Parkı Olayları, 2016'da 15 Temmuz Darbe Kalkışması ve 24 Haziran 2018 seçimleri sonrasında kabine değişikliği dönemleri volatilitenin en çok arttığı dönemlerdir. En büyük volatilite artışı 15 Temmuz Kalkışması sürecinde görülse de etkileri kısa sürmüştür. 2013 Gezi Parkı Olayları ve kabine değişikliği dönemlerinde volatilite nispeten daha düşük olmuştur ancak etkileri daha uzun sürmüştür. Aşırı oynaklığın 2018 yaz döneminde devam etmesinde dolar krizinin etkisi olduğu da söylenebilir. Ayrıca 2015 Bank Asya'nın TSMF'ye devri, Suriye ve Rus uçaklarının düşürülmesi, 2015 17-25 Aralık olayı, 2015 7 Haziran genel seçimlerinde koalisyon hükümeti ihtimali süreçlerinde de volatilitenin önemli düzeyde arttığı gözlenmiştir. ABSTRACT: There are two main sources of risk that affect stock returns and are classified as systematic risk (market risk) and non-systematic risk. While non-systematic risk includes diversifiable risks such as operational risk, financial risk and management risk; systematic risk is defined as undiversifiable risk. The sources of systematic risk are macroeconomic factors and political events. The aim of this study is to observe the effects of events that may cause political risk which are important in systematic risk sources on stock market volatility. For this purpose, using weekly data covering 01.01.2012-26.05.2019, volatility of BIST100 index was modeled by ARCH models, periods of high volatility and political events in these periods were determined. 2013 Gezi Park Incidents, 2016 July 15 coup attempt and the cabinet change after 24 June 2018 elections are the periods in which volatility increased the most. Although the highest increase in volatility was observed after the July 15 coup attempt, the effects were temporary. During 2013 Gezi Park Incidents and cabinet change periods, the volatility was relatively low, but effects of these events were longer lasting. Also, the dollar crisis had an important impact on the excessive volatility in the summer of 2018. In addition, an increased volatility is observed with transfer of Bank Asya to SDIF, the downing of Syrian and Russian warplanes, the 17-25 December event, June 7 general elections and the probability of coalition government after the elections in 2015.

- by Özcan Kuzulu and +2
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- Volatility, Political Risks

Simulation games are tools for understanding and education. Their key feature is that they create an "artificial environment" of opportunities and challenges and thus introduce participants into situations through which understanding and education are attempted. Simulation games, in addition to handling the application, presuppose parallel educational processes such as research on historical conditions, preparation of choices; decision-making, etc. " Serious Games " tools without referring to these parallel processes can simply be a pleasant entertainment for those interested for games, rather serving their designed objectives. "1821" is a historical simulation game. The CGS version of "1821: The Revolution in Morea" was created as a pilot application of 1821 "serious game" and it is adapted exclusively for schoolchildren of the 6th grade of CGS primary school (2015-16). Therefore, his cognitive specifications have been greatly simplified by introducing a series of assumptions, which essentially focused on only three areas: preparation, cooperation and decision-making.

- by Stelios Alifantis
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- International Relations, Political Science, Crisis Management, Simulation

This report examines the ins and outs of providing international assistance to the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) through the prism of risk management. It provides an evaluation of the original
typology of the risks associated with the provision of external support and reveals the main endogenous and exogenous risk factors that determined the specifics of international assistance extended to the MENA countries
in the 2010s after the Arab Spring. The report uses statistical data to draw a map of the external assistance provided to the countries in the region, and identifies the main differences in the assessments of the associated risks by the most influential regional and extra-regional actors, including the Russian Federation. The report looks into the key risks complicating the provision of international assistance in the region and offers recommendations on how Russia can better protect its interests in the MENA region through international aid instruments using elements of a risk-based approach.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze salient political risks common
in Latin America identifying the contexts in which they take place and the reasons for their recurrence, insofar as they affect international business investors in this region. Through a comparison of past and present political patterns in Latin America, this study assesses political risk traps, or combinations of repeatedly unforeseen political risks that international businesses may encounter in Latin American countries. The article identifies eight critical questions that investors must address looking at political risks in Latin America, as political situations faced by Latin American countries tend to be similar throughout time. It also shows the combination of political risks factors leading to a particular political risk configuration in the region.
Political risks in Latin America appear over and over again because of
enduring, vested interests of entrenched power groups in Latin America.
Current techniques and methods to forecast country political risk are
insufficient for international investors to grasp the full range of risks they may confront while investing in Latin America. Previous literature has not analyzed political risk combination and recurrence in an integrative approach. Therefore, the originality of our article is to present a framework of political risks, with a specific application to Latin America, highlighting the specific reasons for their recurrence there.

- by Elizabeth Salamanca and +1
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- Political Risks, Political and country risk analysis, Political Risk Analysis

Issues created by inconsistency make difficult for investors to make healthy decisions. Risks and uncertainty may lead investors to have bad decisions which result in low level of profit fro m investments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect o f country risk on the direct foreign investments (FDI). In the study in which annual data between the years of 2002 and 2014 belong to 49 countries are utilized, the relat ionships between the variables are analy zed through two phase system-GMM dynamic panel method. Three model assumptions are made for the study. According to the assumption results of the first model which focus on the country risk's effect on the FDI inflows; the decrease in the country risk increases the FDI inflows. The results of second model through which the effects of sub elements of country risk (financial, econo mic and political risk) on the FDI are analy zed separately show that financial risk does not create statistically mean ingful effect wh ile the decrease in economic and political risk affects the FDI inflows in positive means. Finally, according to the results of the third model wh ich focus on the effect of FDI inflows on the country risks; FDI creates a decreasing effect for country risk and indirectly inconsistencies..

- by Janet Jamieson and +2
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- Environmental Engineering, Civil Law, Economics, Public Finance
- by Apurva Sanghi
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- Real Estate, Political Economy, Globalization, Terrorism

".Objective – The objective of this study was to investigate the factors like corporate governance, financial ratios, and political risk and their impacts on company’s survival. Methodology/Technique – Collecting data of Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2014 and employing purposive random sampling, this research collects samples of 58 companies undergoing financial distress and 275 others which do not. Findings – The research eventually proves that agency theory and Asymmetric Information theory do occur in Indonesia. With Cox Proportional Hazard model, it then proves that all two models employed: independence commissioners, leverage, operating risk, size, return on asset and control of corruption, are variables which consistently affect financial distress of the company. Novelty – The study uses original data and gives supported suggestion for the researched issues."

- by Farida Titik K
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- Finance, Accounting, Corporate Governance, Financial Distress

A number of empirical and theoretical studies as well as real life experiences provide supportive evidence to the fact that political instability has an ability to harm the inflow of the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). This study aims to explore the causal relationship between macro-level political stability and FDI while focusing on Turkey. The choice of Turkey as a subject of study is motivated by the fact that Turkish ruling party has ended the political and economic instability caused by the previous coalition governments. Despite of MTC (Multinational Terrorist Corporation)'s recent attacks and 15 July failed coup attempt which was completely different from the previous similar attempts, since it was a bloody-terrorist coup attempt targeting Turkish stability, Turkey continued to stand strong in the sense of political and economic conditions thanks to the political stability and national will. Political risk is studied since it has not received much attention in up-to-date studies treating the case of Turkey. For this purpose, the causal relationship between FDI and political stability is estimated using several econometric methods including Johansen cointegration test, the bounds testing (ARDL) approach, ECM-ARDL model as well as Granger causality test. Time series data are collected over the 15 years period ranging from 2002 to 2016. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies identified yet which give empirical evidence on the causal relationships between political stability and FDI inflow in Turkey. Our study aims to fill in this gap in literature and may be useful for the foreign investors and key decision makers. The results confirm a bidirectional long-run and short-run positive causal relationship between political stability, absence of violence and terrorism and FDI.

Objective – The objective of this study was to investigate the factors like corporate governance, financial ratios, and political risk and their impacts on company's survival. Methodology/Technique – Collecting data of Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2014 and employing purposive random sampling, this research collects samples of 58 companies undergoing financial distress and 275 others which do not. Findings – The research eventually proves that agency theory and Asymmetric Information theory do occur in Indonesia. With Cox Proportional Hazard model, it then proves that all two models employed: independence commissioners, leverage, operating risk, size, return on asset and control of corruption, are variables which consistently affect financial distress of the company. Novelty – The study uses original data and gives supported suggestion for the researched issues.

- by GATR Journals
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- Finance, Accounting, Corporate Governance, Financial Distress

Összefoglalás: Az elemzésben a közvetlen külföldi befektetések (FDI) fontosabb trendjeit vizsgáljuk Albániában a NATO-hoz való csatlakozást követően, és arra a kérdésre keressük a választ, hogy a csatlakozás után – hasonlóan a NATO-hoz 1999-ben és 2004-ben csatlakozó országokhoz – tapasztalható volt-e a FDI mértékének jelentős növekedése. Következtetésünk szerint a csatlakozás pozitív hatást gyakorolt az ország külföldi befektetők általi megítélésére, de hatása az FDI-beáramlásra elmaradt a két fent említett bővítési kör után tapasztalhatótól.

Local companies have exponentially initiated to run their business activities abroad within the effect of globalization. There are a few determinants that underlie at the background of these businesses' desire for internationalization. In this respect, political risk has been drawn attention due to having a crucial role in running business activities and selecting the most optimal location. From this point of view, the present study aimed at being fulfilled a clear the need of research specifically in Turkish literature in the scope of being identified the political risk phenomenon and its types which companies might be exposed in the process of international business activities and risk avoidance via carrying out risk assessment or turning the risk into an opportunity or minimizing the risk through appropriately managing it. It has been seen that the types of political risk consist of general instability risk, ownership and control risk, operational risk, and transfer risk within the frame of the study. Additionally, it has been determined that political risk assessments fundamentally include three steps such as the assessment of issues of relevance to the firm, potential political events, and probable impacts and responses. Moreover, integrative strategies, protective and defensive strategies, and combination strategies have been principally remarked in the sense of political risk management. In this regard, it has been signified that political risk insurance, gradually increasing business activities, joint venture with local company and providing local employment, developing closer relationships with the host country dynamics and using local financing, operational hedging (setting up multiple plants to spread risk), and addressing legal bodies have been drawn attention as sub-strategies.

We investigate the relation between political risk and the volatility of Islamic and conventional banks' assets. Using an international sample of 34,452 and 1245 bank-year observations of conventional and Islamic banks respectively over the period 1999-2013, we show that conventional banks are more exposed to political risk compared to Islamic banks. Our results are robust to the use of different country-specific factors, sub-sample analysis, alternative measures of asset quality and bank profitability.

- by Kabir Hassan
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- Islamic Banking And Finance, Political Risks

This chapter analyzes the potential political risks associated with the investment activity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. It starts with an analysis of the importance of the GCC SWFs
in terms of their global investments. It then analyzes the main directions
of these investments, both in terms of targeted countries and targeted
sectors, before outlining the GCC funds’ investment activity in CEE
and providing a comparison with these funds’ global investment activity
in order to estimate their interest in the studied region. Then, the chapter
presents GCC countries’ political and economic interests, both at the global scale and in CEE. Finally, the conclusion intends to answer the question regarding the political risks involved with GCC SWFs’ investments in CEE.

- by Obroniecki Marcin
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- Finance, International Relations, Middle East Studies, Sovereign Wealth Funds

This research aims at studying the effect of political changes on Egyptian economy by studying the direct and indirect effect of political risk index and its sub-indicators on number of important variables such as economic growth, employment, exchange rates, Egyptian Exchange main index (EGX30), foreign investment flows, domestic interest rates, and domestic public debt during the time period from 2006 to 2015 using parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. The study concluded that political risk index and its sub-indicators have had varying effects on financial and real investment and other macroeconomic variables in Egypt; and that achieving a successful economic development process cannot be reached without taking into account determinants of political risk.

- by Osama Wagdi
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- Finance, Economics, Capital Markets, Stock Markets

ÖZET: Politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki literatürde sıklıkla incelenen konuların başında gelmektedir. Bu hususun incelenmesi özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik yabancı doğrudan yatırım olgusu çerçevesinde çokuluslu işletmelerin davranışlarını açıklamada kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Genellikle bu konudaki çalışmaların çoğu, oluşturdukları modellerde çeşitli göstergeleri doğrudan temsili değişken olarak kullanma yoluna gitmişlerdir. Bu makale politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesinde alternatif ve daha kapsayıcı bir yol olarak yapısal eşitlik modelinin ne şekilde uygulanabileceğini göstermeye çalışmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik modelde gizil değişkenler olarak tanımlanmıştır ve bu gizil değişkenler göstergelerden oluşan fonksiyonları temsil etmektedir. Hipotez temelli yapısal eşitlik modeli uygulanmıştır. Modelin veri seti 178 ülke için 2013-2014 dönemine ait 13 adet göstergeden oluşmaktadır. Sonuçlar (1) politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki anlamlı ve yüksek düzeyde pozitif ilişki olduğunu ve (2) standart katsayılar çerçevesinde politik risk için yolsuzluk kontrolünün, ekonomik gelişmişlik içinse insani gelişmişlik endeksinin en yüksek etkileşime sahip göstergeler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgular, sosyal ve insan sermayesi faktörlerinin salt makroekonomik göstergelere nazaran risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişkinin açıklanmasında daha etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.
ABSTRACT: The relation between political risk and economic development is a highly-debated issue in the literature. Investigation of this phenomenon plays a critical role to explain the behavior of multinational companies in the frame of foreign direct investments especially or emerging countries. Generally the studies that focus on that subject have applied macro models via directly using of indicators. This paper tries to show an alternative method for investigation the relation between political risk and economic development in more comprehensive way by applying structural equation modeling. Accordingly, political risk and economic development are identified as latent variables in the model and these latent variables represent the functions of indicators. The hypothesized structural equation model was applied. The data set includes 13 indicators of 178 countries for 2013-2014 terms. The results show that (1) there is significant and high size positive relationship between political risk and economic development and (2) control of corruption and human development index has high-level of interaction with political risk and economic development respectively according to their standardized coefficients. These finding suggest that factors of social capital and human capital seem more efficient than pure macroeconomic indicators in order to explain the relationship between political risk and economic development.

- by arinze egenti
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- Political Corruption, Good Governance, Governance Indicators, Political Risks
- by Isik D Ozel
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- Sociology, Comparative Politics, Political Economy, Social Policy

The Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF), developed by the CPR Unit, aims to integrate sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance, and to help Bank teams consider factors affecting both conflict and poverty when formulating development strategies, policies, and programs. Conflict sensitive approaches that take account of problem areas and potential sources of conflict may help to prevent the onset, exacerbation, or resurgence of violent conflict.

- by Per Wam
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- Political Science, Conflict Prevention, Political Risks, Per Capita Income

The study tries to build a political risk index of five Central American countries through text mining three years of news from the US, UK, Latin America and Spain. This quantitative and data-driven index could be used to contrast and compare the qualitative assessments of political risk made by specialists and to improve their " expert political judgement ". The results are not very significant and the model requires further refinement in data selection, dictionaries and scoring function.

- by Fernando Prieto
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- Text Mining, Foreign Direct Investment, Central America, Big Data
- by Christina Lubinski
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- Entrepreneurship, International Business, Business History, Political Science

- by Farida Titik K
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- Finance, Accounting, Corporate Governance, Financial Distress
- by Neil Parison
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- Public Administration, Political Economy, Legitimacy, Economic Development

This paper constructs the most comprehensive paintings price index in Turkey by using 32,391 manually collected sales transactions, including artworks of 413 artists over the period 1990–2016. The results indicate that the Turkish paintings market underperforms the domestic stock market, but leading to the higher returns compared to the global paintings and the global stock markets. The results from the causality analysis also demonstrate that there is the feedback effect between the domestic paintings and the domestic stock market. Furthermore, the findings cannot reject the null hypothesis that there is no bubble in the Turkish Paintings price index. Finally, the geopolitical and the political risks in Turkey are among the main reasons for the diminishing returns of the Turkish paintings market after 2010.

- by Emre Sarı
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- Hedonic Regression, Political Risks, Causality Tests, Asset Price Bubbles

In this article, I share my views of the very important event in Uzbekistan’s economic and governance development. On 20 December 2018, Fitch assigned Uzbekistan rating BB-. This is the first time when this country, known for its isolation from the global financial markets, has received credit rating from a reputable agency. I consider this event from two points of view: first, as a step toward openness and meeting the transparency standards and respective access to international bond markets; and secondly, analysing the reasons of why Uzbekistan has received a so low grade, despite boasting forex reserves and low debts. I am pointing out to the weakness of its institutions as one of the main reasons why Uzbekistan does worse compared to a number of other post-Soviet states.

Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the 20th century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the internment of their employees in British camps during both WWI and WWII. We find that internment impacted business relationships in India well beyond its endpoint and that the WWI internment shaped the subsequent perception of and strategic response to the WWII experience. We show that internment aggravated existing staffing challenges, impacted the perception of racial lines of distinctions, and re-casted the category “European business.” While internment was perceived and managed as a political risk, the case also shows that it created unexpected networking opportunities, generating a tight community of German businesspeople in India.

Political risk is part of a wider range of risks arising from the course of export-import activity. Identification and assessment of political risk is a key process to take steps that will allow to limit what seems to be a crucial issue for effective operations in foreign markets. Considering the source of political risk, it can be concluded that it can occur anywhere and at any time. That is why raising awareness about the nature of political risk and possible tools to manage it is justified and extremely desirable. The aim of the study is to clarify the essence of political risk, its causes, practical examples, as well as ways of limiting it. As the root causes of political risk are: internal and external conflicts, underdevelopment and political structures – the institutional state and changes in government policies. The scope of the impact of political risk shows its three basic types: transfer risk, expropriation risk and ongoing business risk. The article presents selected political risk management practices. The research methods used in this article involve analysis and synthesis of secondary sources concerning this problem and its ‘exemplification through short case studies. Key-words: political risk, risk mitigation, export – import transaction

- by Agnieszka Głodowska
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- International Business, International Trade, Political Risks, Export Import
- by Otaviano Canuto
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- Economics, Natural Resources, Manufacturing, Productivity

- by Per Wam
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- Political Science, Conflict Prevention, Political Risks, Per Capita Income
- by Aldrin Herwany
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- Finance, Accounting, Corporate Governance, Financial Distress
- by Carmen Arevalo
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- Business, Case Studies, Service Delivery, Political Risks

The paper sets out a methodology for conducting functional reviews in Russia which is both appropriate to present needs and circumstances in Russia; and which also takes appropriate account of lessons and experiences of conducting such approaches over recent years in a wide range of countries. The paper summarizes a number of the different approaches adopted by a number of countries to developing and implementing functional reviews; assesses the applicability of different approaches to different objectives and circumstances; and identifies what is felt to be the most potentially useful approach for conducting functional reviews in the Russian Federation as part of the approach to implementation of proposals for modernization of the Federal Civil Service over the short to medium-term. This approach is based on a model which we have described as intermediate functional reviews.

- by Neil Parison
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- Public Administration, Political Economy, Legitimacy, Economic Development