Weather Risks Research Papers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

A database of lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Turkey was constructed by collecting data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, newspaper archives, European Severe Weather Database, and the internet. The database... more

A database of lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Turkey was constructed by collecting data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, newspaper archives, European Severe Weather Database, and the internet. The database covers January 1930 to June 2014. In total, 742 lightning incidents causing human fatalities and injuries were found. Within these 742 incidents, there were 895 fatalities, 149 serious injuries, and 535 other injuries. Most of the incidents (89 %) occurred during April through September, with a peak in May and June (26 and 28 %) followed by July (14 %). Lightning-related fatalities and injuries were most frequent in the afternoon. Most of the incidents (86 %) occurred in rural areas, with only 14 % in the urban areas. Approximately, two thirds of the victims with known gender were male. Because of the unrepresentativeness of the historical data, determining an average mortality rate over a long period is not possible. Nevertheless, there were 31 fatalities (0.42 per million) in 2012, 26 fatalities (0.35 per million) in 2013, and 25 fatalities (0.34 per million) in 2014 (as of June). There were 36 injuries (0.49 per million) in each of 2012 and 2013, and 62 injuries (0.84 per million) in 2014 (as of June).

Climate change (CC) is one of the most important environmental issues affecting our society today and we need to educate the citizens and future generations about the impact on human lives. An attempt was made to understand climate change... more

Climate change (CC) is one of the most important environmental issues affecting our society today and we need to educate the citizens and future generations about the impact on human lives. An attempt was made to understand climate change education into the teaching and learning of secondary school students to improve students' knowledge on climate change and increase motivation towards caring for the environment. Three classes from Kasthurba Gandhi Balika Vidyalaya (KGBV) School were randomly assigned to study. The study was conducted in seven grouped areas and findings were 95% students source of information is newspaper. 97% students replied that climate is changing year to year, 88% opinion that environmental usage can affect climate and pollution from heavy industries can also affect climate change. 91% human activities cause climate change, 510% of the respondents are not involved in any discussion on climate change either in schools or in family levels, 76% replied that man can't live without beasts, 82% replies we got from respondent are cutting trees and erupting volcanoes are cause of climate change and other 76% respondent replied that burning fossil fuels. The study also finds out that how to mitigate climate change.

The term “climate change” suggests a departure from the long-established planetary norms of the Holocene into today’s accelerating changes in the atmosphere, land, and oceans. Climate scientists agree that the accumulating... more

The term “climate change” suggests a departure from the long-established
planetary norms of the Holocene into today’s accelerating changes in the atmosphere, land, and oceans. Climate
scientists agree that the accumulating carbon-producing activities of some human beings and their technologies have
occurred over centuries but have become increasingly rapid and detrimental since the so-called “Great Acceleration,” which
began c. 1945 with the testing and use of atomic weapons and a stupefying increase in many other impactful metrics. Second,
artists, curators, and art historians have focused increasingly in recent years on changing phenomena in the environment
and responses to them, creating noticeably more artworks, exhibitions, and scholarly analyses of the much-discussed crisis
of global climate disruption and its increasingly tragic ramifications. How might we bring climate issues into the ambit of
art and Art History? Both “ecological art” and “eco art history” embrace a range of practices — contemporary and historical
— that investigate the environmental, aesthetic, social, and political relationships between human and nonhuman animals
as well as inanimate materials.

This study focused on exploring the weather variability induced instability in agriculture in the Odisha, India. In this study, growth and instability in ten major crops are analysed, followed by a depiction of weather variability in... more

This study focused on exploring the weather variability induced instability in agriculture in the Odisha, India. In this study, growth and instability in ten major crops are analysed, followed by a depiction of weather variability in Odisha and then the association between weather variability and instability in selected crops are analysed using regression analysis. It is observed that weather variability is a major concern in the state of Odisha. In the context of agrarian economy of Odisha, the dimensions, magnitude and erratic nature of the weather variability and extreme weather events have made the situation more complex. Wide variations are observed in the rainfall both across time and space in the state. The long term average rainfall is indicating a declining trend. The weather variability has produced profound negative effects on agricultural production and yields in the state, causing agricultural fluctuations and has been a serious threat to the agrarian economy. Empirical findings lend credence to the negative effects of weather variability on agricultural yield and the regression analyses of yield instability on weather variability have only reaffirmed the same. The negative effects of weather variability on crop yield leads to a clear policy implication of proper provisioning of irrigation and weather variability resistance crop for increasing the crop yields and reduce the crop yield instability.

Adverse weather could impair the performance of many important parts in road transportation. In a tropical country, the threats posed by the weather phenomenon can be viewed from a different perspective as the situation may not be as... more

Adverse weather could impair the performance of many important parts in road transportation. In a tropical country, the threats posed by the weather phenomenon can be viewed from a different perspective as the situation may not be as extreme as snow-related problems or excessive temperature in other countries. Specifically in Malaysia, the situation may be underestimated due to several reasons such as the deficiencies in accident reporting and lack of research work. This background research has looked into various publications as well as related data to explain the need of more comprehensive research in the future.

Introduction: During emergencies increasing numbers of messages are shared through social media platforms becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. For Twitter codified hashtagging is emerging as a... more

Introduction: During emergencies increasing numbers of messages are shared through social media platforms becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. For Twitter codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate messages during emergencies and quickly identify relevant information. This paper considers a case study on the use of codified hashtags concerning weather warning in Italy in three different regions.

There may be various reasons associated to be the causes of road accidents, and they may be categorised into two main groups – transport demand and unsafe operation. Weather condition, particularly the adverse weather phenomenon, is one... more

There may be various reasons associated to be the causes of road accidents, and they may be categorised into two main groups – transport demand and unsafe operation. Weather condition, particularly the adverse weather phenomenon, is one of the unsafe operation issues that could undermine the qualities in all aspects of road transportation and thus, increasing the risk of road accidents and casualties. The main objective of this report is to gather related information on accident issues that are weather-related and to reveal that our road transportation is also made riskier by adverse weather conditions even though it is not as serious as snow-related problems. The discussion begins with an overview of the subject matter based on global research, and followed by the situation in Malaysia which includes local weather profile, the statistics on weather-related accidents in the past years and the preventive measures undertaken up to now. In-depth research efforts are required in the future especially in determining the risk of weather-related accidents to local road users.

On the Causse du Larzac, various superficial formations contribute to karstic morphogenesis. Two of them, originate from stratigraphic levels of Grands Causses, give some indications of this evolution. Several new deposits of Upper... more

On the Causse du Larzac, various superficial formations contribute to karstic morphogenesis. Two of them, originate from stratigraphic levels of Grands Causses, give some indications of this evolution.
Several new deposits of Upper Cretaceous had been discovered recently. They show a transgression of marine Upper Cretaceous on a differentiated paleogeography, undoubtedly formed during an earlier continental phase (when bauxite was formed). Some dolines with bauxite, are filled by clay and sand. Then, one hundred meters at least of calcareous sanstone fossilized the different relieves. The evacuation of theses formations toward depressions furnish a lot off materials which contributes to crypto-corrosion. A karstical surface tangentes localy bauxite surface and reactivates crypto-corrosion, between limestone and cretaceous deposits.
The incision of the canyons of Grands Causses accelerates this process and declogges the paleo-dolines named, on the Larzac the “grands sotchs”. The doline of the Luc Bas is one of theses “sotchs” witch have kept a part of is cretaceous filling.
On the Causse de l’Hospitalet, bajocian limestones contain siliceous accidents and are called “calcaires à chailles”. After altération, they gives clays with siliceous accidents (argiles à chailles). This formation, accumlated in dépressions, corresponds to the sectors the most sensible to crypto-corrosion. Canyons digging modify radicaly this process. Then, less “argiles à chailles” arrives in the dépression, while karstic declogging become more and more intensive.
The polje of l’Hospitalet is situated on crossroad of two springs of “argiles à chailles”. It is very upstream from karsticcirculations and his development, entirely in dolomite, permit him to preserve old types of functioning. When it rains a lot, rivers and temporary lakes appear on the causse. They illustrate the overflowing of the epikarst. On the northern part of the polje, the cover
presents several decloggings. Many caves go directly to the base level. The development of endokarst is destroying horizontal morphology of this part, witch will concern one day all the polje of l’Hospitalet.

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of automotive tinting popularity among car users in Malaysia. While comfort (heat and glare) and security stand among the main reasons behind the popularity, there is however, some... more

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of automotive tinting popularity among car users in Malaysia. While comfort (heat and glare) and security stand among the main reasons behind the popularity, there is however, some notable safety arguments about the automotive tinting. The prevailing regulation on auto tinting, which is dubbed as " outdated and unfair " , had caused public uproar about the permissible limit in terms of Visible Light Transmission (VLT). The results from the most recent survey on automotive consumerism are used in the discussion, together with two previous MIROS' studies i.e. on weather issues and the auto tinting consultation report to the Ministry of Transport Malaysia (MOT). The highlights, among others, were about the aftermarket behavior among car users in Klang Valley. Out of 265 respondents, approximately 70% of them had done the tinting to their current (main) car with the declared mean and maximum cost of MYR 780.81 and MYR 4,000.00, respectively. Also, the result has supported that the auto tinting together with the tires are the most popular aftermarket items for modification and retrofitting among the car users.

Dire warnings from the World Economic Forum mainly for climate change (I am not the author)

This paper discusses about the prevailing issue of hazard light “misuse” among some Malaysian road users. This preliminary discussion is a part of a future research in one of the research clusters established at MIROS – the... more

This paper discusses about the prevailing issue of hazard light “misuse” among some Malaysian road users. This preliminary discussion is a part of a future research in one of the research clusters established at MIROS – the Weather-related Road Accident Preventive Program (WRRAPP). The issue can be addressed through the amendments in the current road transport legislation and also to propose the use of rear fog lamp or a new light that could serve the purpose. Future research in WRRAPP will bring this issue in a Focus Group Discussion that could gain more valuable information from both the road users and relevant experts.

The weather cycle is the basic cycle. One reason, because it’s the most accurate. It may be driven by solar radiation. This tends to explain why the economic cycle has such a regular timing to it. The weather cycle drives the economic... more

The weather cycle is the basic cycle. One reason, because it’s the most accurate. It may be driven by solar radiation. This tends to explain why the economic cycle has such a regular timing to it. The weather cycle drives the economic cycle, while both tend to drive the war and politics cycle. The two page addition includes 56 events and has two new categories. Climate (20), Economic(9), War (12), War Weather (8). Social (7). There is a one page academic oriented 34 event list. Climate Cycle (13), Economic Cycle (9), and War Cycle (12) Predictions (3), one page.
""

A wide variety of construction projects may be damaged by snow, ice, extreme cold, heavy seas, strong winds, hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, torrential rain, flooding or wildfires /bushfires. Some weather risks are obvious and... more

A wide variety of construction projects may be damaged by snow, ice, extreme cold, heavy seas, strong winds, hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, torrential rain, flooding or wildfires /bushfires. Some weather risks are obvious and precautions taken against damage as a matter of course, whilst others may surprise those managing construction sites.
Since a site may be particularly vulnerable to a certain type of weather damage for only a limited period it may be tempting to take no special precautions and hope that an adverse weather event does not happen until the period of vulnerability has passed. Construction best practice however is based upon risk awareness and the implementation of suitable
precautions to minimise the risk of damage as a result of damaging events during the life of a project.
Insurance policies include special clauses that are tailored to specific classes and addressed to the insured to incentivise contractors to assess risks and undertake construction tasks progressively rather than finishing one construction task (such as trench excavation) before moving to the next (pipe or cable laying and backfilling).
Making preparations for adverse weather is a sensible risk management activity and this paper identifies tasks for each type of weather considered. It also cites references where further information can be obtained.
Climate change is likely to make adverse weather more intense and unpredictable and heighten the need to prepare for the worst if losses are to be minimised.

A climatology of tornadoes in Turkey is presented using records from a wide variety of sources (e.g., the Turkish State Meteorological Service, European Severe Weather Database, newspaper archives, Internet searches, etc.). The... more

A climatology of tornadoes in Turkey is presented using records from a wide variety of sources (e.g., the Turkish State Meteorological Service, European Severe Weather Database, newspaper archives, Internet searches, etc.). The climatology includes the annual, diurnal, geographical, and intensity distributions of both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic tornadoes. From 1818 to 2013, 385 tornado cases were obtained. The tornadoes range from F0 to F3, with F1 being the most frequently reported or inferred intensity. Mesocyclonic tornadoes are most likely in May and June, and a secondary maximum in frequency is present in October and November. Nonmesocyclonic tornadoes (waterspouts) are most common in the winter along the (southern) Mediterranean coast and in the fall along the Black Sea (northern) coast. Tornadoes (both mesocyclonic and nonmesocyclonic) are most likely in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Exposure to heat has killed more people in Australia than all other natural hazards combined. As the climate warms, temperatures are projected to rise substantially , increasing the impact of heat stress and heat illness nationwide. The... more

Exposure to heat has killed more people in Australia than all other natural hazards combined. As the climate warms, temperatures are projected to rise substantially , increasing the impact of heat stress and heat illness nationwide. The relation between heat and health is profoundly complex, however, and is understood differently across multiple sectors. This paper thus provides a critical review of how heat is currently measured and managed in Australia, highlighting how humidity, exposure, and exertion are key elements that are not consistently incorporated into 'problematizations' of heat. The presence or absence of these elements produces different spatial and temporal geographies of danger, as well as different governance practices. In particular, the invisibility of humidity as having a significant impact on heat and health shapes whether Australia's tropical monsoon zone is visible as a region at risk or not, and whether prolonged periods of seasonal heat are treated as dangerous. Similarly, different populations and practices become visible depending on whether the human body (its exposure, exertion, cooling, and hydration) is included in accounts of what constitutes 'heat.' As a result, the outdoor, manual workforce is visible as a population at risk in some accounts but not others. A brief review of key policy areas including housing, public health and work health and safety is presented to demonstrate how specific problematizations of heat are critical to the identification of, and response to, current and future climatic conditions. This has implications for how populations, places, and practices are constituted in the region.

Communicating climate change poses challenges not only in terms of what words to use, but also in terms of what visual images to choose. Social scientists have examined verbal aspects of news reporting on climate change from a variety of... more

Communicating climate change poses challenges not only in terms of what words to use, but also in terms of what visual images to choose. Social scientists have examined verbal aspects of news reporting on climate change from a variety of disciplinary perspectives. Similarly, visual representations of climate change are beginning to attract academic attention. In this article we take one contested aspect of climate change, extreme weather events, as a topic for a visual analysis, based on a case study of articles published after the release of a draft report by the International Panel on Climate Change on extreme weather and climate change adaptation in November 2011. We analyse a corpus of online images on this report using Visual Thematic Analysis. Our analysis contributes to theoretical developments in the field of visual climate change communication, focusing in particular on the role of geographical distance, identity and emotions evoked by the images used. Four major themes relating to images of hurricanes, drought, heat, power plants/smoke stacks, and ice/sea level rise and their implications for climate change communication are discussed in detail.

Insurance claims forecasting for extreme weather events that result in large scale destruction such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, etc. is an important planning activity for insurance firms and any process improvements that can enhance... more

Insurance claims forecasting for extreme weather events that result in large scale destruction such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, etc. is an important planning activity for insurance firms and any process improvements that can enhance the accuracy and quality of the forecasts should be welcome. This article provides an introduction to the forecasting methodology for insurance claims payouts and then discuss potential use of machine learning techniques to enhance the forecasting process.

Sedimentation is a critical threat to coral reefs worldwide. Major land use alteration at steep, highly erodible semi-arid islands accelerates the potential of soil erosion, runoff, and sedimentation stress to nearshore coral reefs during... more

Sedimentation is a critical threat to coral reefs worldwide. Major land use alteration at steep, highly erodible semi-arid islands accelerates the potential of soil erosion, runoff, and sedimentation stress to nearshore coral reefs during extreme rainfall events. The goal of this study was to assess spatio-temporal variation of sedimentation dynamics across
nearshore coral reefs as a function of land use patterns, weather and oceanographic dynamics, to identify marine ecosystem conservation strategies. Sediment was collected at a distance gradient from shore at Bahia Tamarindo (BTA) and Punta Soldado (PSO) coral reefs at Culebra Island, Puerto Rico. Sediment texture and composition were analyzed by dry sieving and loss-on-ignition techniques, and were contrasted with
environmental variables for the research period (February 2014 to April 2015). Rainfall and oceanographic data were analyzed to address their potential role on affecting sediment distribution with BEST BIO-ENV, RELATE correlation, and linear regression analysis. A significant difference in sedimentation rate was observed by time and distance from
shore (PERMANOVA, p < 0.0100), mostly attributed to higher sediment exposure at reef zones closer to shore due to strong relationships with coastal runoff. Sedimentation rate positively correlated with strong rainfall events (Rho = 0.301, p = 0.0400) associated with storms and rainfall intensity exceeding 15 mm/h. At BTA, sediment deposited were mostly composed of sand, suggesting a potential influence of resuspension produced by waves and swells. In contrast, PSO sediments were mostly composed of silt-clay and terrigenous material, mainly attributed to a deforestation event that occurred at adjacent steep sub-watershed during the study period. Spatial and temporal variation of sedimentation pulses and terrigenous sediment input implies that coral reefs exposure to sediment stress is determined by local land use patterns, weather, and oceanographic dynamics. Comprehensive understanding of sediment dynamics and coastal ecosystem interconnectivity is fundamental to implement integrated and adaptive
management strategies aimed to promote sustainable development at watershed and island wide-scale to fully mitigate terrigenous sediment impact to marine ecosystems. Furthermore, decision-making processes and policy needs to address sedimentation stress in the context of future climate to reduce land-based threats and strengthen coral reef resilience.

Urban flooding is becoming increasingly destructive in the Mediterranean region as more and more urban infrastructure and socioeconomic activities are exposed to flood risk. The metropolitan area of Athens, Greece, is no exception to this... more

Urban flooding is becoming increasingly destructive in the Mediterranean region as more and more urban infrastructure and socioeconomic activities are exposed to flood risk. The metropolitan area of Athens, Greece, is no exception to this flood-prone regime, presenting a rich record of flood events during the last century. On February 22, 2013, a high-intensity storm that lasted 7 h hit Athens, severely impacting the transportation sector, hindering vehicle circulation and the overall performance of the road network. This paper studies the impacts of high-intensity storms in urban areas by examining the effects of the February 2013 Athens storm and the resultant flood event. Its novelty lies in the impacts quantification approach, applying cutting-edge traffic flow control methodologies in the form of macroscopic fundamental diagrams. It quantifies the storm’s impacts on vehicular traffic in terms of operational disruptions during the event, by analyzing various traffic-related indicators, such as travel time, delays, speed drop and re-routing of vehicles, using data from the Athens traffic management center and urban freight vehicle fleets. Results show increased travel times, significant changes in routing and substantial speed drops, highlighting the disruptive effects of the flooding event on traffic. The importance of developing a qualitative and quantitative understanding of the effects of such events in urban areas is particularly high, considering the context of the changing climate and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Weather variability poses threats to rural crop producers in Tanzania. This research aimed to find the impact of weather variation on the growth stage and yield of rice in Tanzania. The analyses were done using rice yield data and weather... more

Weather variability poses threats to rural crop producers in Tanzania. This research aimed to find the impact of weather variation on the growth stage and yield of rice in Tanzania. The analyses were done using rice yield data and weather variables from 1981-2017. The approaches used were; decomposing rice yields into yield tendency and yield weather, stepwise integral regression for identification of significant yield model, and applied Fisher's meteorological regression and Chebyshev polynomial function to compute coefficients for weather factors. From the results, other than the non-natural factors, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, and sunshine significantly affect rice yield from sowing to harvest stage. The effect of rainfall, sunshine, maximum and minimum temperature coefficients on the rice yield differ by growth stage. An increase of 1 millimeter of rainfall at the sowing-seedling stage increased rice yield by 2.7 kg/ha. In the sowing-seedling stage, the temperature had a stronger positive influence on the rice yield as with every 1 o C in average maximum temperature increased the rice yield by 674.1 kg/ha. The minimum temperature coefficient had stronger influences in the vegetative, tillering-booting stages, thus, with 1 o C increase in average minimum temperature, the rice yield increased by 70.1 kg/ha and 420.7 kg/ ha respectively. In the flowering-grain formation stage, the maximum temperature had a greater influence on rice yield, that is, as 1 o C increased, the rice yielded increased by 674.7 kg/ha. The sunshine duration had a higher influence on the harvesting stage.

Heavy rains occured in Surabaya on December 12 th 2013 and December 2 nd 2014. Both events are included in extreme weather category. This study is done to analyze the pattern of the clouds during the events. This study uses the analysis... more

Heavy rains occured in Surabaya on December 12 th 2013 and December 2 nd 2014. Both events are included in extreme weather category. This study is done to analyze the pattern of the clouds during the events. This study uses the analysis of top cloud temperature during heavy rain events. Analysis of satellite imagery MTSAT (Multifunctional Transport Satellites) from the IR1 channel is done by using SATAID software that shows convective cloud coverage over Surabaya area. Both of heavy rain cases occur in different time. On December 12 th 2013, heavy rain occured during 05.00 to 12.00 UTC and December 2 nd 2014 at 09.00 to 15.00 UTC. SATAID analysis shows heavy rain occured because of convective cloud cover over Surabaya.

In the UK in the past 30 years (1987-2016), 58 people were known to have been killed by lightning, that is, on average, two people per year. The average annual risk of being struck and killed was one person in 33 million. If only the past... more

In the UK in the past 30 years (1987-2016), 58 people were known to have been killed by lightning, that is, on average, two people per year. The average annual risk of being struck and killed was one person in 33 million. If only the past ten years are considered, a period with fewer average lightning deaths, the risk was one person in 71 million. The likelihood of being killed by lightning is much less than it was a century ago when it was around one person in every two million per year. The current UK lightning risk is compared with USA risk. The risk of being killed by lightning in the UK differs by the activity being undertaken at the time. This paper groups activities into three broad types. During the past 30 years, work-related activities accounted for 15 per cent of all deaths, daily routine for 13 per cent, and outdoor leisure, recreation and sports pursuits for 72 per cent. Leisure walking on hills, mountains and cliff-tops together with participating in outdoor sports activities, notably cricket, fishing, football, golf, rugby and watersports, gave rise to around half of all leisure, recreation and sports activity deaths. The highest number of deaths occurred amongst the 20-29 year-age-range. Men accounted for 83 per cent of all lightning deaths reflecting the higher proportion of male participation in outdoor work-related activities and specific outdoor leisure activities (hill and mountain walking) and sports activities (cricket, fishing, football and golf). Sundays gave rise to 26 per cent of all deaths reflecting this is a day when large numbers of people participate in higher lightning risk leisure activities. The four months from May to August accounted for 80 per cent of all deaths. A specific study is conducted of the synoptic and weather situations during days when thunderstorms developed and resulted in deaths amongst people undertaking leisure walking activities. Overall, this paper highlights the factors that should help to lessen the risk of being killed by lightning in the future.

There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans... more

There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure , and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

It was observed that even in the times of higher prices some smallholder rubber producers remain poor. The rea-son for this variation in income is thought to be risks associated with rubber production. Therefore, this study investigated... more

It was observed that even in the times of higher prices some smallholder rubber producers remain poor. The rea-son for this variation in income is thought to be risks associated with rubber production. Therefore, this study investigated the risks related to labour and weather taking a sample of 500 smallholder farmers from the Kalu-tara district. A Just and Pope stochastic production function is estimated using a three step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) technique. The estimated variance equation reveals that rainfall and labour usage are risk increasing while price is risk reducing. Weather (rainfall) is typically believed to be the primary source of loss in potential income. Although, results show that this is true based on the sign of expected coefficients, they failed to show statistical significance. However, variability of labour and rubber price showed statistical significance. It is therefore envisaged that availability of farm labour is a key issue in production risk, which is not given due con-sideration in policy.
Key words: Weather, Just and Pope Production Function, Risk, Feasible Generalized Least Squares

Adverse weather is currently among the crucial challenges facing agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. With climate change and variability increasing, rainy seasons are becoming more and more unpredictable. Heavy rainfalls and... more

Adverse weather is currently among the crucial challenges facing agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. With climate change and variability increasing, rainy seasons are becoming more and more unpredictable. Heavy rainfalls and severe flooding have increased, affecting smallholder farming and rural livelihoods considerably. Using qualitative and quantitative methods in data collection, this study aimed at exploring climate change adaptation strategies in North-Western Rwanda, by assessing the role of smallholder farmers’ perceptions on the vulnerability of their farming to changing rainfall patterns, while also analysing the factors influencing the adoption and use of weather forecast information in adaptation-decision-making. I used two different theoretical approaches to analyse the research questions: The ‘’Protection Motivation Theory’’ to study how smallholder farmers’ perceptions on the farming vulnerability to changing rainfall patterns shape coping mechanisms and adaptive strategies, and the ‘’Diffusion of Innovations’’ theory to investigate the role of weather forecast information in adaption-decision making. Results indicated that a high level of awareness of climate threats, of the causes of climate change and coping measures, can be important drivers of the adaptation decisions that can contribute to a well-timed anticipation and preparedness against climate threats. The results also suggest that the adoption and use of weather forecast information in farm-decision making depend much on the accuracy and content of information, communication channels, farmers’ digital literacy and forecast skills. The study recommends that the formulation of better adaptation strategies should base their interventions on farmers’ perceptions and knowledge and integrate it with the weather forecast information.

The harmonization of climate-adaptive behaviour with pre-existing decision-making processes is central to the way climate change adaptation is described in the literature. Yet such behaviour is largely understudied, making it difficult to... more

The harmonization of climate-adaptive behaviour with pre-existing decision-making processes is central to the way climate change adaptation is described in the literature. Yet such behaviour is largely understudied, making it difficult to predict whether and how individuals can integrate (i.e., ‘mainstream’) climate change with risk management processes for weather and other ‘normal’ stressors. In this dissertation, I examine the decision-making processes of South Africa’s commercial grain farmers, as a uniquely informative case, through five complementary studies of two original datasets. I seek to better understand the relationship between risk perceptions and climate-adaptive behaviour in this group, who are known to be sensitive to weather risks and who are adopting climate-resilient farming practices (i.e., Conservation Agriculture (CA)), but who are nonetheless perceived by local experts to be insensitive to climate change risks. In doing so, I distinguish between weather-sensitive decision-making, in which farmers perceive and react to weather risks in conjunction with other ‘normal’ risks, and climate-sensitive decision-making, in which they also perceive and react to the anticipated effects of climate change. Using mental models interviews in the Western Cape province (N = 90), I first reconceptualise farmers’ risk-based decision-making processes, drawing on theories of risk perception and framing from cognitive psychology and behavioural economics to interpret the empirical evidence. Second, I explain the variation in farmers’ adoption of climate-resilient CA practices based on the different cognitive frames (expressed as linguistic frames) that they use to perceive, interpret and respond to weather risks. Third, I use these results to guide the quantitative analysis of a national survey (N = 441), with which I assess the utility of the CA concept in promoting, monitoring and evaluating sustainable and climate-resilient farming practices, as envisioned by the Climate-Smart Agriculture and Sustainable Intensification frameworks. Fourth, I use the interview data to evaluate whether and how farmers integrate climate change and weather risks in farm-level decision-making. Fifth, I build on these findings by using the survey data to quantitatively test whether farmers perceive weather and climate change as equivalent risks.

Weather-related impacts are at the top of all outage causes. Yet, traditional outage management (OM) approaches do not integrate all available and relevant weather-associated data automatically. This paper presents a predictive method... more

Weather-related impacts are at the top of all outage causes. Yet, traditional outage management (OM) approaches do not integrate all available and relevant weather-associated data automatically. This paper presents a predictive method that correlates different weather-associated data layers to provide predictive OM process implemented using the geographic information systems (GIS) framework. Examples for both transmission and distribution OM are demonstrated using vegetation, wind, and power system data in ArcGIS.

Project execution is often delayed by extreme and unforeseen weather conditions. This is because extreme weather usually causes work disruption, waste of resources, significant project delays and, eventually, financial losses for both the... more

Project execution is often delayed by extreme and unforeseen weather conditions. This is because extreme weather usually causes work disruption, waste of resources, significant project delays and, eventually, financial losses for both the contractor and the project owner. Construction contracts generally include weather-related clauses addressing when, and to what extent, the responsibilities and consequences of adverse weather are to be shared or compensated. However, setting clear and objective limits for abnormal weather is problematic, starting with the lack of agreement about which weather conditions can be considered as "normal" or "average”. Research on the influence of weather on construction productivity is scarce and underdeveloped. Therefore, practitioners cannot count on sound methods to mediate in and evaluate weather-related contract disputes. In these situations, claims are likely to arise and escalate. A stochastic model for objectively evaluating the ...

Es tal la dimensión de la emergencia climática actual, que seguir procrastinando al respecto es, sencillamente, suicida. En cosa de 4 años este planeta sería invivible. Al inaugurar un proyecto de investigación del CIPE sobre este asunto... more

Es tal la dimensión de la emergencia climática actual, que seguir procrastinando al respecto es, sencillamente, suicida. En cosa de 4 años este planeta sería invivible. Al inaugurar un proyecto de investigación del CIPE sobre este asunto –el más apremiante del momento, aunque muchos no lo hayan entendido– la autora invita a la academia a actuar ahora o nunca